Jaylen's Offensive Game & Winning Titles

[Who]

Can you think of any comparisons of wings that have won titles with a similar offensive game to Jaylen Brown?

(1) A guy who takes a large amount of shots = 18-20 FGAs a night for Jaylen over the last three years. Or who score 25+ppg or even 20+ppg scoring wings.

(2) A wing who only averages 3.5apg relative to those 18-20 FGAs / 25ppg a night

(3) A wing who only has close to a 1:1 AST:TO ratio

[edit: (4) A factor I forgot about is Jaylen's scoring efficiency. He has a TS% of 58% this season which is exactly league average. This is important.

So you are getting high volume scoring with league average efficiency and low quality passing. Just how valuable is that offensive package?]


I struggle to think of winning wing players who have that type of profile. Guys who won titles or came close to winning titles.

I also wonder just how much of our team's offensive dysfunction comes down to Jaylen's high volume shot taking combined with low quality passing in terms of harming ball movement & overall offensive cohesiveness.

[Who]

The guy I think of a lot with Jaylen is Nique. One of the top scorers of the 80s and early 90s. Hardly ever passed the ball. Scored 25-30ppg, only averaged 2.5apg against 2.5 turnovers per game for his Hawks career.

A guy who was very talented but only thought of himself out of the court. He didn't make his teammates better. He operated separate from his teammates. They were there to service him. Their offenses where always predictable because Nique never passed so they always struggled in terms of ball movement and keeping guys involved.

They tried to switch up the team to generate more offense by bringing in Moses (another non-passer) and Theus (passer/scorer) but that did not work either. Sacrificed some defense to improve the offense. The offense didn't improve enough to justify it because there still wasn't enough passing or ball movement to be a high quality offensive team.

Despite his talent, Nique proved a difficult guy to build around for his career. He has always been questioned in terms of just how good was he.

[keevsnick]

Well Kawhi Leonard comes to mind.

The year he won the title with the Raptors he average 18.8 FG's per game and scored 26.6 points ppg, only 3.3 assists in the regular season. He was lower turnover with only 2.0 a game, but I don't think that's a dramatic difference.

In the playoffs he was 3.9 assists to 3.1 TO's a game (Jaylen is 3.5/3.1 this postseason). Now obviously he upped his game come playoff time significantly scoring wise, jumping to 30ppg on 62% TS and 31% USG. So lower TS% but on a higher USG% then Jaylen this postseason. And of course offense is up vs 18-19 overall so hard to compare.

In his case he had to be the best player on his team. Jaylen does not.

If the argument is "Jaylen isn't a winning player" i just think the fact that they've won a lot with him is a pretty good argument against that.

[Atzar]

With a similar game to Jaylen?  Not really.

Statistically Klay has a lot more in common with Jaylen than you'd expect - he checks the three statistical boxes you presented, at any rate.  Shoots a bit less, slightly less usage, but similar TS% and not much value added as a passer.  But they don't play at all similarly.  A guy playing almost exclusively as a catch-and-shoot finisher can afford to be a minus passer.  A guy who spends a lot of his time on-ball would ideally be a better playmaker than Jaylen is. 

With all of that said, I do want to point out that offense has generally not been our problem in these playoffs.  Our problem is that we don't have a flipping clue how to defend the Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll.  But with the exception of G5, we've scored just fine. 

[Who]

Well Kawhi Leonard comes to mind.

The year he won the title with the Raptors he average 18.8 FG's per game and scored 26.6 points ppg, only 3.3 assists in the regular season. He was lower turnover with only 2.0 a game, but I don't think that's a dramatic difference. In the playoffs he was 3.9 assists to 3.1 TO's a game.

Now obviously he upped his game come playoff time significantly scoring wise, jumping to 30ppg, but in his case he had to be the best player on his team. Jaylen does not.

Kawhi is a very good one.

An even more dynamic scorer than Jaylen. More reliable. More efficient. Kawhi was a +4.6% rTS% in the regular season and +6.9% rTS% in the playoffs. Kawhi has continued to be on of the most efficient scorers in the league. Jaylen is typically closer to the league average in TS% although he is well above that in this year's playoffs but that hot-shooting has not been typical of past playoff appearances. I see the scoring efficiency as a key differeniator here. It is a lot easier to live with low passing when a guy is scoring with high efficiency vs closer to league average efficiency.

Since leaving TOR, he has developed into a very good passer averaging 4.7apg to 2.1 turnovers per game.

Another interesting factor with Toronto was that in the playoffs they had a league average (slightly above) level offense but an elite defense which is where most of their point differential came from.

Also that Kawhi needed a quality PG in Lowry next to him and a high post passing center in M Gasol to counter-act his lack of passing. An important in team construction to make it work around Kawhi's low quality passing at that time.

Does that have important lessons for Boston? Do they need a better floor general at PG? What does it mean in terms of Al Horford getting older and the need for a passing big man?

If the argument is "Jaylen isn't a winning player" i just think the fact that they've won alot with him is a pretty good argument against that.

Agreed.

What I keep wondering about is how much of this winning is down to Jaylen and how much is it down to other players. How responsible is Jaylen for this success.

And I also wonder how much is Jaylen responsible for this team's offensive issues with his combination of high volume scoring and low caliber passing. That does not create team orientated offense. It is everyone around him that is creating team offense and trying to maintain team orientated offense despite his style of play.

[Who]

I keep thinking about Rolando Blackman as a comp for Jaylen. A very good SG in the 80s. Made a bunch of All-Star games. Typically scored 20+ppg. Low volume assists.

His Dallas had two strong seasons in the mid to late 80s but were otherwise fairly middle of the pack despite having Blackman and Aguirre to build around.

Their best season happened when they were able to add Derek Harper at guard, Sam Perkins at PF, Donaldson at C, Tarpley as 6th man giving them one of the best big man rotations in the league and B Davis at backup guard. Even Detleft Schrempf as an end of rotation guy. A huge amount of talent that they had to surround Blackman and Aguirre with.

Even with Blackman's low assist totals, he still posted a 1.5:1.0 AST:TO ratio and limited his turnovers per game to only 2.1 per night.

[keevsnick]

Well Kawhi Leonard comes to mind.

The year he won the title with the Raptors he average 18.8 FG's per game and scored 26.6 points ppg, only 3.3 assists in the regular season. He was lower turnover with only 2.0 a game, but I don't think that's a dramatic difference. In the playoffs he was 3.9 assists to 3.1 TO's a game.

Now obviously he upped his game come playoff time significantly scoring wise, jumping to 30ppg, but in his case he had to be the best player on his team. Jaylen does not.

Kawhi is a very good one.

An even more dynamic scorer than Jaylen. More reliable. More efficient. Kawhi was a +4.6% rTS% in the regular season and +6.9% rTS% in the playoffs. Kawhi has continued to be on of the most efficient scorers in the league. Jaylen is typically closer to the league average in TS% although he is well above that in this year's playoffs but that hot-shooting has not been typical of past playoff appearances. I see the scoring efficiency as a key differeniator here. It is a lot easier to live with low passing when a guy is scoring with high efficiency vs closer to league average efficiency.

Since leaving TOR, he has developed into a very good passer averaging 4.7apg to 2.1 turnovers per game.

Another interesting factor with Toronto was that in the playoffs they had a league average (slightly above) level offense but an elite defense which is where most of their point differential came from.

Also that Kawhi needed a quality PG in Lowry next to him and a high post passing center in M Gasol to counter-act his lack of passing. An important in team construction to make it work around Kawhi's low quality passing at that time.

Does that have important lessons for Boston? Do they need a better floor general at PG? What does it mean in terms of Al Horford getting older and the need for a passing big man?

If the argument is "Jaylen isn't a winning player" i just think the fact that they've won alot with him is a pretty good argument against that.

Agreed.

What I keep wondering about is how much of this winning is down to Jaylen and how much is it down to other players. How responsible is Jaylen for this success.

And I also wonder how much is Jaylen responsible for this team's offensive issues with his combination of high volume scoring and low caliber passing. That does not create team orientated offense. It is everyone around him that is creating team offense and trying to maintain team orientated offense despite his style of play.

I get the concern, but also: The c's had something like the 2nd or 3rd rated offense in the NBA this year? How responsible is Jaylen for offensive success? I don't know. But I KNOW he's not preventing success because the offense was really good.

[Who]

With a similar game to Jaylen?  Not really.

Statistically Klay has a lot more in common with Jaylen than you'd expect - he checks the three statistical boxes you presented, at any rate.  Shoots a bit less, slightly less usage, but similar TS% and not much value added as a passer.  But they don't play at all similarly.  A guy playing almost exclusively as a catch-and-shoot finisher can afford to be a minus passer.  A guy who spends a lot of his time on-ball would ideally be a better playmaker than Jaylen is. 

Yeah, I was thinking the same way with Klay.

I also thought about Rip Hamilton on those 2004 Pistons. I was surprised his assist totals and AST:TO ratios were better than I had remembered. I thought that came later in his career. But he average 4.0apg and only 2.7 turnovers per. So a more positive AST:TO ratio.
 

With all of that said, I do want to point out that offense has generally not been our problem in these playoffs.  Our problem is that we don't have a flipping clue how to defend the Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll.  But with the exception of G5, we've scored just fine.

Yeah, well worth noting.

I keep coming back to why Boston cannot control games. Why can they not finish teams off? Why do they keep letting playoff games slip away from them?

I do feel like there is a lack of control on offense. That we do not have that great heliocentric hub like a LeBron or a Luka. That Tatum is very good but not that. That Tatum needs more help around him in distributing the ball and controlling games. That he doesn't have enough PG skills to do that himself.

And I wonder how much Jaylen's style of play contributes negatively to that. That his inability to tie the offense together. To bring other players into the game. To make the team play as a unit when under pressure. Instead playing as an individual and more along the lines of hero-ball. How much does that contribute to BOS' inability to control games? To maintain continuity of offense? To manage games?

[Who]

I keep thinking about MJ & Pippen and Shaq & Kobe.

How the offense ran through MJ in Chicago and Shaq in LA. How they would draw the defense in and how Pippen in Chicago and Kobe in LA would then act as the secondary line of attack. So MJ/Shaq would draw the double, kick it out, then Pippen/Kobe would attack a scrambling defense from the weakside usually with dribble penetration.

I keep thinking about how valuable an necessary it was for both Pippen and Kobe to be high quality ball-handlers & passers in this situation. They were not only able to create for themselves but they were able to setup shots for all their teammates.

Kobe was setting up D Fisher, R Horry, R Fox. Pippen was getting shots for Kerr, Kukoc, Harper, Longley, Buechleur.

And how much our present Celtics team lacks that passing & playmaking in our 2nd option. How many other title winners or even title contenders also had a 2nd option who struggled to pass? How good of a 1st option did they need to overcome it? Or did they fail to overcome it and ended up coming up short time and time again?

[kraidstar]

Well Kawhi Leonard comes to mind.

The year he won the title with the Raptors he average 18.8 FG's per game and scored 26.6 points ppg, only 3.3 assists in the regular season. He was lower turnover with only 2.0 a game, but I don't think that's a dramatic difference.

In the playoffs he was 3.9 assists to 3.1 TO's a game (Jaylen is 3.5/3.1 this postseason). Now obviously he upped his game come playoff time significantly scoring wise, jumping to 30ppg on 62% TS and 31% USG. So lower TS% but on a higher USG% then Jaylen this postseason. And of course offense is up vs 18-19 overall so hard to compare.

In his case he had to be the best player on his team. Jaylen does not.

If the argument is "Jaylen isn't a winning player" i just think the fact that they've won a lot with him is a pretty good argument against that.

Yup. And the one year Jaylen was out we got clobbered by the Nets.

[jpotter33]

Well Kawhi Leonard comes to mind.

The year he won the title with the Raptors he average 18.8 FG's per game and scored 26.6 points ppg, only 3.3 assists in the regular season. He was lower turnover with only 2.0 a game, but I don't think that's a dramatic difference. In the playoffs he was 3.9 assists to 3.1 TO's a game.

Now obviously he upped his game come playoff time significantly scoring wise, jumping to 30ppg, but in his case he had to be the best player on his team. Jaylen does not.

Kawhi is a very good one.

An even more dynamic scorer than Jaylen. More reliable. More efficient. Kawhi was a +4.6% rTS% in the regular season and +6.9% rTS% in the playoffs. Kawhi has continued to be on of the most efficient scorers in the league. Jaylen is typically closer to the league average in TS% although he is well above that in this year's playoffs but that hot-shooting has not been typical of past playoff appearances. I see the scoring efficiency as a key differeniator here. It is a lot easier to live with low passing when a guy is scoring with high efficiency vs closer to league average efficiency.

Since leaving TOR, he has developed into a very good passer averaging 4.7apg to 2.1 turnovers per game.

Another interesting factor with Toronto was that in the playoffs they had a league average (slightly above) level offense but an elite defense which is where most of their point differential came from.

Also that Kawhi needed a quality PG in Lowry next to him and a high post passing center in M Gasol to counter-act his lack of passing. An important in team construction to make it work around Kawhi's low quality passing at that time.

Does that have important lessons for Boston? Do they need a better floor general at PG? What does it mean in terms of Al Horford getting older and the need for a passing big man?

If the argument is "Jaylen isn't a winning player" i just think the fact that they've won alot with him is a pretty good argument against that.

Agreed.

What I keep wondering about is how much of this winning is down to Jaylen and how much is it down to other players. How responsible is Jaylen for this success.

And I also wonder how much is Jaylen responsible for this team's offensive issues with his combination of high volume scoring and low caliber passing. That does not create team orientated offense. It is everyone around him that is creating team offense and trying to maintain team orientated offense despite his style of play.

I get the concern, but also: The c's had something like the 2nd or 3rd rated offense in the NBA this year? How responsible is Jaylen for offensive success? I don't know. But I KNOW he's not preventing success because the offense was really good.

I mean, I don’t know. The on/off numbers with JB and our record without him have never demonstrated him as a superstar level player, unlike with Tatum.

I think we should offer it to him just given the cap situation, but I do think there’s legitimate questions about whether he’s really in that stratosphere to justify those kinds of numbers.

[Who]

If the argument is "Jaylen isn't a winning player" i just think the fact that they've won alot with him is a pretty good argument against that.

Agreed.

What I keep wondering about is how much of this winning is down to Jaylen and how much is it down to other players. How responsible is Jaylen for this success.

And I also wonder how much is Jaylen responsible for this team's offensive issues with his combination of high volume scoring and low caliber passing. That does not create team orientated offense. It is everyone around him that is creating team offense and trying to maintain team orientated offense despite his style of play.

I get the concern, but also: The c's had something like the 2nd or 3rd rated offense in the NBA this year? How responsible is Jaylen for offensive success? I don't know. But I KNOW he's not preventing success because the offense was really good.

An interesting hypotethical to think about - if we swapped about Jaylen Brown for a solid / good starting SF like Harrison Barnes, how good would our offensive efficiency have been?

How much is our good offensive efficiency down to the others on the team vs Jaylen? How much of it is due to the coach and his lineup decisions?

Coach Mazzula effectively chose offensive orientated lineups over defensive orientated lineups this season (vs Udoka's defensive lineups last season) which boosted the offense.

Mazzula played a lot of one big man lineups. A lot of these were with Horford as the lone big who is one of the most skilled high post big men in the league with his combination of jump-shooting & passing.

Mazzula also used more two guard lineups as opposed to the one guard lineups favoured by Udoka last year in order to have more size on the wing and at forward. This allowed Boston to have extra ball-handlers on the floor to boost ball security, decrease turnovers, increase dribble penetration, increase ball movement, increase team speed and transition offense.

So if we did swap out Jaylen for H Barnes and kept this same lineup decisions, would Boston still be one of the most effective offensive teams in the league? I believe they would.

I believe H Barnes can maintain the floor spacing with his quality outside shooting, he provide a modest amount of ball-handling and passing to aid the offense, he can run the floor well and make the occassional driving hoop. H Barnes won't score as much as Jaylen but that will leave more shots for others - so some slippage here but probably not much.

I believe we'd see a bigger difference in the post-season though where that splippage would show up more. That decrease in shot-creation from Jaylen to H Barnes. Whereas Jaylen makes us more resiliant to offensive droughts against tougher post-season defenses than H Barnes would.

[Who]

I mean, I don’t know. The on/off numbers with JB and our record without him have never demonstrated him as a superstar level player, unlike with Tatum.

I think we should offer it to him just given the cap situation, but I do think there’s legitimate questions about whether he’s really in that stratosphere to justify those kinds of numbers.

That is where I am at. I question some of these things with Jaylen but I do see paying him as the best option.

[nyceltsfan]

I mean, I don’t know. The on/off numbers with JB and our record without him have never demonstrated him as a superstar level player, unlike with Tatum.

I think we should offer it to him just given the cap situation, but I do think there’s legitimate questions about whether he’s really in that stratosphere to justify those kinds of numbers.

That is where I am at. I question some of these things with Jaylen but I do see paying him as the best option.

Is there a way to give him the supermax with a free throw contingency?

It drives me insane that he wilts under the pressure at the free throw line.

[LilRip]

I think the Dominique comparison is apt.

JB has a  strong scoring game and a strong individual defensive game. Fortunately, we have 4 strong team defenders and playmakers around him a lot (Tatum, White, Smart, Horford). JB’s at his best when he’s moving to score and if he can cut off ball more, it adds a new dimension to the offense.