NFL 2023 Offseason Thread

[Phantom255x]

My guess, if Rodgers to NYJ doesn't happen, NYJ will be all over Lamar and will gladly surrender the two first rounders. Lamar is still just 25, and NYJ has said numerous times they are getting a QB this offseason. They are the one team where I feel the saying "they are a QB away" makes sense. Zach Wilson basically screwed them from a playoff spot last season on his own.

Garoppolo seems like their Plan C. But I think Jimmy G will have a lot of other suitors as is, whereas some teams are already dropping out of the Lamar sweepstakes due to his big price (both in picks and money)

I agree that the Jets should try to do this if they don't get Aaron Rodgers.  And depending on what Green Bay may demand for Rodgers, maybe Lamar Jackson should be their first option.  The thing with Baltimore is they can just match.  The Jets have the 13th pick this year and you would expect a lower pick next year.  That may not be enough for Baltimore to let him go.  I read somewhere that they were looking for a top 6 pick this year in order not to match.

Thinking of trades, would Houston want Lamar for #2 and #12?  Or, are they better of taking a rookie who will at least be cost-controlled for four or five years?

I won't pretend to be a "Houston insider", but from what I've been seeing online it sounds like it's almost a foregone conclusion HOU will draft a QB this offseason.

[Moranis]

It is behind ESPN+ or Insider, but they listed the 16 teams from 16 to 1 that would make sense for Lamar.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35803270/lamar-jackson-trade-fits-ranking-nfl-teams-ravens-quarterback-franchise-tag

The 15 teams they eliminated were Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Jaguars, Rams, Saints, Seahawks, and Steelers.  They eliminated them for various reasons, but most commonly because they all had big money contracts, superstars on rookie deals, or were the Steelers. 

Starting with least likely they had

Green Bay
San Francisco
Minnesota
Detroit
New England
Washington
Tennessee
Houston
Chicago
Miami
Tampa Bay
Las Vegas
Indianapolis
New York Jets
Carolina
Atlanta

They also had several trade proposals that weren't just 2 1st round picks as that has happened in the past (since Baltimore can just threaten to match, teams can work out trades ahead of time)
 

The most interesting proposed trade I saw was a 3 team trade

Bears - Lamar, 22, 2024 2nd (colts), 2025 3rd (colts)
Colts - 1, 2024 2nd (ravens), 2025 5th (ravens)
Ravens - Fields, 4, 2024 1st (colts)

[Roy H.]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar. 

[Goldstar88]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

[Moranis]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes. 

[Goldstar88]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

[wdleehi]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

[celticsclay]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Another fair question is how well will he age? I can’t really think of many running quarterbacks that aged well.

[Donoghus]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Another fair question is how well will he age? I can’t really think of many running quarterbacks that aged well.

He's only 26. I don't think he's just going to up & fall off a cliff right away.  If he's healthy (and its certainly an if) I think his production is still going to be elite in the short term future.

I think the big questions right now are 1) Is he worth the draft pick compensation & 2) what's his next contract going to look like? 

[Moranis]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Yep.  Last year his TD% was 5.2%, it is 6.1% in his career.  As a comparison, Burrow was 5.8% last year and is 5.4% in his career.   The loss of Brown and Bateman not staying healthy was a real factor in some of that drop off the last 2 seasons from Lamar.  Despite all of that, Baltimore scores about 10 ppg better with Lamar the last two years then in the 10 games he has missed.  There aren't many players worth 10 ppg over that large of a sample size. 

And I will say 2 years ago Mark Andrews had almost as many TD's as the entire receiving corp (Andrews had 9 and the WR's had 10 - 6 of which were Brown).  Last year Baltimore caught just 19 TD's, the TE's accounted for 10, RB's were 2, meaning just 7 of the 19 were WR's (Bateman had 2 in his 6 injury riddled games).  When a return specialist (Devin Duvernay) is your most productive WR, it is a problem that isn't QB driven.  Tyler Huntley (who made the pro bowl last year) started 4 games and threw just 2 TD passes (he added 2 more in the playoff game - though 1 was to Dobbins). 

The WR's were awful for Baltimore last year and were nearly as bad 2 years ago.  The play calling has been run heavy and conservative.  That said, since the start of 2019, there have been 6 games with a perfect passer rating, and Lamar has 2 of those 6 (along with Prescott, Watson, Rodgers, and Brady).  Lamar had those in games with 17 and 20 attempts, Brady was next lowest at 27 and the other 3 were 31, 32, and 33 attempts.  The Ravens just don't throw the ball, but that isn't because Lamar can't, it is because of the coaching mentality and lack of WR's. 

[Goldstar88]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Andrews and Marquise Brown were pretty solid options. Does it matter who the WR’s are if he can’t hit them with accurate passes? People were saying that about Cam Newton in NE. “He doesn’t have any help. That’s why he’s not passing the ball well.” Won’t matter if prime Randy Moss is out there if the QB is tossing the ball 5 feet over his head or throwing it into the ground.

[Moranis]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Andrews and Marquise Brown were pretty solid options. Does it matter who the WR’s are if he can’t hit them with accurate passes? People were saying that about Cam Newton in NE. “He doesn’t have any help. That’s why he’s not passing the ball well.” Won’t matter if prime Randy Moss is out there if the QB is tossing the ball 5 feet over his head or throwing it into the ground.

He is pretty accurate.  Not Burrow accurate, but is basically as accurate as Josh Allen or Tom Brady (for basically his entire career in NE).  In fact, if you look at Brady's first 6 seasons, he was 63.9, 62.1, 60.2, 60.8, 63, 61.8.  He had a TD% between 4.4 and 4.9 except one outlier at 5.9, and his INT% was between 2.3 and 3.0.  In other words, Lamar is more accurate, throws a higher percentage of TD's and a lesser percentage of INT's, than Brady did his first 6 seasons when he was winning 3 Super Bowls, but generally playing on a conservative offense with no real play makers.  2007 comes and Randy Moss strolls into town and all of a sudden Brady completes 68.9% of his passes, with a TD% of 8.7, an INT% of 1.4, and throws as many TD's in that one season as the prior 2 seasons combined.  Amazing what a great WR can do for a QB.

[Donoghus]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Andrews and Marquise Brown were pretty solid options. Does it matter who the WR’s are if he can’t hit them with accurate passes? People were saying that about Cam Newton in NE. “He doesn’t have any help. That’s why he’s not passing the ball well.” Won’t matter if prime Randy Moss is out there if the QB is tossing the ball 5 feet over his head or throwing it into the ground.

He is pretty accurate.  Not Burrow accurate, but is basically as accurate as Josh Allen or Tom Brady (for basically his entire career in NE).  In fact, if you look at Brady's first 6 seasons, he was 63.9, 62.1, 60.2, 60.8, 63, 61.8.  He had a TD% between 4.4 and 4.9 except one outlier at 5.9, and his INT% was between 2.3 and 3.0.  In other words, Lamar is more accurate, throws a higher percentage of TD's and a lesser percentage of INT's, than Brady did his first 6 seasons when he was winning 3 Super Bowls, but generally playing on a conservative offense with no real play makers.  2007 comes and Randy Moss strolls into town and all of a sudden Brady completes 68.9% of his passes, with a TD% of 8.7, an INT% of 1.4, and throws as many TD's in that one season as the prior 2 seasons combined.  Amazing what a great WR can do for a QB.

Let's be fair, though  It was more than just one great WR in '07.  That team loaded up on offense.  In addition to Moss, they added Welker (who actually had more receptions than Moss) and Stallworth that season. Those additions took Brady to another level.  Plus they already had Faulk as a relief valve & Watson was no slouch either. 

It wasn't just Moss.

[Moranis]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Andrews and Marquise Brown were pretty solid options. Does it matter who the WR’s are if he can’t hit them with accurate passes? People were saying that about Cam Newton in NE. “He doesn’t have any help. That’s why he’s not passing the ball well.” Won’t matter if prime Randy Moss is out there if the QB is tossing the ball 5 feet over his head or throwing it into the ground.

He is pretty accurate.  Not Burrow accurate, but is basically as accurate as Josh Allen or Tom Brady (for basically his entire career in NE).  In fact, if you look at Brady's first 6 seasons, he was 63.9, 62.1, 60.2, 60.8, 63, 61.8.  He had a TD% between 4.4 and 4.9 except one outlier at 5.9, and his INT% was between 2.3 and 3.0.  In other words, Lamar is more accurate, throws a higher percentage of TD's and a lesser percentage of INT's, than Brady did his first 6 seasons when he was winning 3 Super Bowls, but generally playing on a conservative offense with no real play makers.  2007 comes and Randy Moss strolls into town and all of a sudden Brady completes 68.9% of his passes, with a TD% of 8.7, an INT% of 1.4, and throws as many TD's in that one season as the prior 2 seasons combined.  Amazing what a great WR can do for a QB.

Let's be fair, though  It was more than just one great WR in '07.  That team loaded up on offense.  In addition to Moss, they added Welker (who actually had more receptions than Moss) and Stallworth that season. Those additions took Brady to another level.  Plus they already had Faulk as a relief valve & Watson was no slouch either. 

It wasn't just Moss.

well sure, but that is sort of the point.  You need difference makers.  Baltimore's difference makers are a middle of the field TE and RB's.  They haven't really had a difference making WR since Anquan Boldin a decade ago. 

[Donoghus]

As a Bears fan, I’d rather have Fields and the pick.  No interest in Lamar.

I think Lamar is an incredible athlete, but an overrated QB. I’d rather have fields and the pick as well.

Except he wins a lot (at least in regular season) and puts up solid numbers without a #1 WR (though a top 3 TE in the sport).  I think the bigger concern is the 40% of missed games over the last 2 seasons.  That is part of the reason I'd have a hard time paying 250 million with half (or so) guaranteed, let alone guaranteeing the whole thing.  And it appears the NFL owners may feel the same way.  He isn't Mahomes.

Does he put up solid numbers, though? Especially when it comes to passing the ball. 17TD’s last year, only 16 the year before. Lamar is a run first QB that isn’t very accurate throwing the ball. Plus, he’s only been playing 12 games a season the last two years.  Hard to blame Baltimore for not wanting to give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Again, who is he throwing to?   It matters.   Can the receivers create separation in the red zone?   Can the receivers make a play in the open field?   


The missed games is the negative.   

I think the real hang-up isn't the money, it is the all guaranteed money.  If Watson can get that, why shouldn't Jackson.   (you know that is what he is thinking)

Andrews and Marquise Brown were pretty solid options. Does it matter who the WR’s are if he can’t hit them with accurate passes? People were saying that about Cam Newton in NE. “He doesn’t have any help. That’s why he’s not passing the ball well.” Won’t matter if prime Randy Moss is out there if the QB is tossing the ball 5 feet over his head or throwing it into the ground.

He is pretty accurate.  Not Burrow accurate, but is basically as accurate as Josh Allen or Tom Brady (for basically his entire career in NE).  In fact, if you look at Brady's first 6 seasons, he was 63.9, 62.1, 60.2, 60.8, 63, 61.8.  He had a TD% between 4.4 and 4.9 except one outlier at 5.9, and his INT% was between 2.3 and 3.0.  In other words, Lamar is more accurate, throws a higher percentage of TD's and a lesser percentage of INT's, than Brady did his first 6 seasons when he was winning 3 Super Bowls, but generally playing on a conservative offense with no real play makers.  2007 comes and Randy Moss strolls into town and all of a sudden Brady completes 68.9% of his passes, with a TD% of 8.7, an INT% of 1.4, and throws as many TD's in that one season as the prior 2 seasons combined.  Amazing what a great WR can do for a QB.

Let's be fair, though  It was more than just one great WR in '07.  That team loaded up on offense.  In addition to Moss, they added Welker (who actually had more receptions than Moss) and Stallworth that season. Those additions took Brady to another level.  Plus they already had Faulk as a relief valve & Watson was no slouch either. 

It wasn't just Moss.

well sure, but that is sort of the point.  You need difference makers.  Baltimore's difference makers are a middle of the field TE and RB's.  They haven't really had a difference making WR since Anquan Boldin a decade ago.

Sure, and I'm just saying that it was more than just "one great WR" in the instance of Brady in '07.