2024 NFL Draft

[A Future of Stevens]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

[Roy H.]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

In the terminology the Athletic uses, he'd be a "reach", but not a bust.

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

[Moranis]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

[Neurotic Guy]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

Hard to know what the exact odds are.  But if Maye is more like 50/50, I'd be inclined to role the dice with the QB prospect than the better-odds WR prospect.

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

[tazzmaniac]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust. 

[Roy H.]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

[tazzmaniac]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Then don't reach for QBs or anyone for that matter.  Maye isn't a top-3 talent in this draft and he certainly isn't top 3 in chance of having a successful career. 

Edit - Maye did little in his college career to inspire confidence in his NFL potential.  Against a pretty weak ACC schedule his performance in the tougher games should raise concerns.  Now maybe he just needs a couple more years of development but is he going to get that as a top-3 pick? 

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Agreed. I was about to type the same thing.

[Goldstar88]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Then don't reach for QBs or anyone for that matter.  Maye isn't a top-3 talent in this draft and he certainly isn't top 3 in chance of having a successful career. 

Edit - Maye did little in his college career to inspire confidence in his NFL potential.  Against a pretty weak ACC schedule his performance in the tougher games should raise concerns.  Now maybe he just needs a couple more years of development but is he going to get that as a top-3 pick?

Yep and it does.

[celticsclay]

I think it would be hard to quantify what a hit or bust is.

For example, if MHJ averages say 750 yards a year for the next 7 or 8 years, is he a bust? No of course not. I just wouldn't call that a hit either.

Going by the contract also seems silly.

What do people think the chances are that MHJ turns out to be a bust? I’d probably go with about 10%. This is why I hope the Pats take him at 3. Drake Maye on the other hand seems like he has 75% chance of being a bust. Obviously both are positions of need, but MHJ seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

There is no way Maye is at 75% to bust. More like 20%. Daniels is far more likely to bust based on college, his fast huge rise, etc.  Maye has been projected as a very high pick for multiple seasons. Those guys bust at a mich lower frequency.

No way is Maye only a 20% chance to bust. He regressed this season. I don’t think any of the QB’s in this draft are close to being a lock.

Depends on how you define bust and what the other options are.  If he hangs around the league as backup for 10 seasons, that certainly isn't what you want from a top pick but I wouldn't call it a bust.

If a top-3 pick turns into a career backup, I'd call him a bust.

Agreed. I was about to type the same thing.

Yes clearly a top 3 pick as a career backup is a terrible outcome.

[SparzWizard]

Despite Robert Kraft not being involved in draft process, Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved in the draft process for New England.

How to turn a fanbase against you in four months.