Author Topic: NFL 2022 Season  (Read 74490 times)

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Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #60 on: September 11, 2022, 11:22:01 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Crazy statistic is that Tom Brady is only roughly 2,500 yards away from 100,000 total career passing yards (regular & playoffs). For a comparison, the next closest active quarterback is Aaron Rodgers with 61,000.

Given how much modern QBís rely on their legs, I wonder if this becomes a John Stockton like (unbreakable) record.
Almost all of Brady's records will be like Wilt Chamberlain rebounding and scoring records. No one is coming near them ever.
That is probably true, but given how much the game has changed, I don't know that will necessarily be true.  It will take a guy to play a lot of years, but they won't need as many as Brady as they will have bigger per game numbers.
It would take someone 20 years of 5000 total yards (playoffs included) to reach 100k. Not sure that's possible
It's a bad take by Mo.

The numbers are so overwhelmingly high that, like you said, we're talking 20 completely healthy years of elite performance and elite playoff performance. Brady has almost 14,000 yards thrown in the playoffs. That's not easy, especially if the team isn't making the playoffs while the player is putting up huge regular season numbers.

Just look at Manning or Brees. HUGE passing numbers in the regular season. 18 years and 20 years respectively. Manning with just 7400 yards and Brees just 5400 yards in the playoffs.

Brady's numbers will never be seen again.

Youíre probably right, but one thing that will help a future QB:  an extra regular season game, and an extra team qualifying for the playoffs.  The path is easier to put up stats now.  Itís still incredibly unlikely anybody passes Brady.
I was thinking of someone like Mahomes who currently averages 301.4 yards a game.  Brady's at 265.8.  That is a lot of extra yards per game, and Mahomes has played in 11 playoff games in his 4 years as a starter (he played 1 game as a rookie), so he gets a lot of those (and he is at 307.4 yards per game in the playoffs).  Mahomes in 4 years + 1 game as a rookie has 22,372 total yards or 5,593 a year, so that is just under 18 years (total) at that rate to hit 100k, and as you've said they recently added a game (and he had another 360 today which aren't in those numbers).  I don't know if Mahomes will play long enough, but someone might and they are putting up huge numbers and most of the top guys plays immediately as rookies.  I mean Herbert had 4336 as a 22 year old rookie and 5014 in his second year.  The passing numbers are just insane these days.
The other thing we have to consider is we don't know how high Brady's numbers will be.

We thought last year was it but it wasn't. So we might see him tack on another 5000 yards and 40 TDs this year.

And what about next year? This could very well not be his last year. Dude could conceivably put up another 20,000 yards if he plays until he is 50. We all might scoff at that but people were scoffing at him playing until 40. And then again that he was going to play until 45. Still playing at 50? I'm not ruling it out.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #61 on: September 12, 2022, 08:56:58 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Crazy statistic is that Tom Brady is only roughly 2,500 yards away from 100,000 total career passing yards (regular & playoffs). For a comparison, the next closest active quarterback is Aaron Rodgers with 61,000.

Given how much modern QBís rely on their legs, I wonder if this becomes a John Stockton like (unbreakable) record.
Almost all of Brady's records will be like Wilt Chamberlain rebounding and scoring records. No one is coming near them ever.
That is probably true, but given how much the game has changed, I don't know that will necessarily be true.  It will take a guy to play a lot of years, but they won't need as many as Brady as they will have bigger per game numbers.
It would take someone 20 years of 5000 total yards (playoffs included) to reach 100k. Not sure that's possible
It's a bad take by Mo.

The numbers are so overwhelmingly high that, like you said, we're talking 20 completely healthy years of elite performance and elite playoff performance. Brady has almost 14,000 yards thrown in the playoffs. That's not easy, especially if the team isn't making the playoffs while the player is putting up huge regular season numbers.

Just look at Manning or Brees. HUGE passing numbers in the regular season. 18 years and 20 years respectively. Manning with just 7400 yards and Brees just 5400 yards in the playoffs.

Brady's numbers will never be seen again.

Youíre probably right, but one thing that will help a future QB:  an extra regular season game, and an extra team qualifying for the playoffs.  The path is easier to put up stats now.  Itís still incredibly unlikely anybody passes Brady.
I was thinking of someone like Mahomes who currently averages 301.4 yards a game.  Brady's at 265.8.  That is a lot of extra yards per game, and Mahomes has played in 11 playoff games in his 4 years as a starter (he played 1 game as a rookie), so he gets a lot of those (and he is at 307.4 yards per game in the playoffs).  Mahomes in 4 years + 1 game as a rookie has 22,372 total yards or 5,593 a year, so that is just under 18 years (total) at that rate to hit 100k, and as you've said they recently added a game (and he had another 360 today which aren't in those numbers).  I don't know if Mahomes will play long enough, but someone might and they are putting up huge numbers and most of the top guys plays immediately as rookies.  I mean Herbert had 4336 as a 22 year old rookie and 5014 in his second year.  The passing numbers are just insane these days.
The other thing we have to consider is we don't know how high Brady's numbers will be.

We thought last year was it but it wasn't. So we might see him tack on another 5000 yards and 40 TDs this year.

And what about next year? This could very well not be his last year. Dude could conceivably put up another 20,000 yards if he plays until he is 50. We all might scoff at that but people were scoffing at him playing until 40. And then again that he was going to play until 45. Still playing at 50? I'm not ruling it out.
That is fair, I was always assuming this would be his last year, but you are right, he may very well play longer.  If this is his last year, he will end up around 102k combined.  That is obviously a huge number, but it just doesn't strike me that it will never be matched given just how much prolific passing has become even in the 20 years since Brady entered the league.  I mean Justin Herbert is already 211th all time in career regular season passing yards, after his 2nd season.  He is just going to continue to bomb the ball all over the field.  He obviously has to stay healthy, but I see no reason why someone won't eventually stay healthy for 15+ years that averages over 5.5k yards a year (combined).  Mahomes and Herbert seem like solid candidates of the active players, but if not them, someone certainly could.  Again, I didn't say it would happen, just that I don't think 100k combined will be totally unattainable. 

no one is going to score like Wilt did in the 62 season because the game is just different.  No one is going to play 48.5 mpg over 82 games.  No one will even come close to that, which is why Wilt's single season records won't be touched.  That said, if you account for assists, other players have contributed a similar amount of points than Wilt did that season (Wilt was 50.2 ppg and 2.4 apg for a combined total of 55.2).  Harden (29.1 ppg, 11.2 apg) and Westbrook (31.6 ppg, 10.4 apg) both have had seasons in that general total point range and they did it with far less points scored overall accounting for a much greater percentage of total offense than Wilt. 

The reason Wilt's individual records won't be matched is because no one will play anywhere close to the amount of minutes Wilt played.  That is what makes his season records untouchable.  The opposite is happening in football with respect to passing.  The numbers are getting more and more prolific.  The NFL records that seem like they won't be matched are things like Emmitt Smith's rushing yards (18,355).  I just can't see a RB getting anywhere near him.  Frankly, I'm not sure we will see another RB even hit Adrian Peterson's 14,918 which is good enough for 5th all time.  The closest active player to Peterson is Mark Ingram at 7900.  For as good as Derrick Henry has been, he has just 6879, which is actually less than Ezekiel Elliott and his 7438.  Melvin Gordon is the only other active RB with at least 5,000 yards (he has 6144).  Russell Wilson is actually 166th all time with 4689 rushing yards. 
I was finally wrong. Boston not only didn't win in 5, but didn't win at all.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #62 on: September 12, 2022, 09:30:10 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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Crazy statistic is that Tom Brady is only roughly 2,500 yards away from 100,000 total career passing yards (regular & playoffs). For a comparison, the next closest active quarterback is Aaron Rodgers with 61,000.

Given how much modern QBís rely on their legs, I wonder if this becomes a John Stockton like (unbreakable) record.
Almost all of Brady's records will be like Wilt Chamberlain rebounding and scoring records. No one is coming near them ever.
That is probably true, but given how much the game has changed, I don't know that will necessarily be true.  It will take a guy to play a lot of years, but they won't need as many as Brady as they will have bigger per game numbers.
It would take someone 20 years of 5000 total yards (playoffs included) to reach 100k. Not sure that's possible
It's a bad take by Mo.

The numbers are so overwhelmingly high that, like you said, we're talking 20 completely healthy years of elite performance and elite playoff performance. Brady has almost 14,000 yards thrown in the playoffs. That's not easy, especially if the team isn't making the playoffs while the player is putting up huge regular season numbers.

Just look at Manning or Brees. HUGE passing numbers in the regular season. 18 years and 20 years respectively. Manning with just 7400 yards and Brees just 5400 yards in the playoffs.

Brady's numbers will never be seen again.

Youíre probably right, but one thing that will help a future QB:  an extra regular season game, and an extra team qualifying for the playoffs.  The path is easier to put up stats now.  Itís still incredibly unlikely anybody passes Brady.
I was thinking of someone like Mahomes who currently averages 301.4 yards a game.  Brady's at 265.8.  That is a lot of extra yards per game, and Mahomes has played in 11 playoff games in his 4 years as a starter (he played 1 game as a rookie), so he gets a lot of those (and he is at 307.4 yards per game in the playoffs).  Mahomes in 4 years + 1 game as a rookie has 22,372 total yards or 5,593 a year, so that is just under 18 years (total) at that rate to hit 100k, and as you've said they recently added a game (and he had another 360 today which aren't in those numbers).  I don't know if Mahomes will play long enough, but someone might and they are putting up huge numbers and most of the top guys plays immediately as rookies.  I mean Herbert had 4336 as a 22 year old rookie and 5014 in his second year.  The passing numbers are just insane these days.
The other thing we have to consider is we don't know how high Brady's numbers will be.

We thought last year was it but it wasn't. So we might see him tack on another 5000 yards and 40 TDs this year.

And what about next year? This could very well not be his last year. Dude could conceivably put up another 20,000 yards if he plays until he is 50. We all might scoff at that but people were scoffing at him playing until 40. And then again that he was going to play until 45. Still playing at 50? I'm not ruling it out.
That is fair, I was always assuming this would be his last year, but you are right, he may very well play longer.  If this is his last year, he will end up around 102k combined.  That is obviously a huge number, but it just doesn't strike me that it will never be matched given just how much prolific passing has become even in the 20 years since Brady entered the league.  I mean Justin Herbert is already 211th all time in career regular season passing yards, after his 2nd season.  He is just going to continue to bomb the ball all over the field.  He obviously has to stay healthy, but I see no reason why someone won't eventually stay healthy for 15+ years that averages over 5.5k yards a year (combined).  Mahomes and Herbert seem like solid candidates of the active players, but if not them, someone certainly could.  Again, I didn't say it would happen, just that I don't think 100k combined will be totally unattainable. 

no one is going to score like Wilt did in the 62 season because the game is just different.  No one is going to play 48.5 mpg over 82 games.  No one will even come close to that, which is why Wilt's single season records won't be touched.  That said, if you account for assists, other players have contributed a similar amount of points than Wilt did that season (Wilt was 50.2 ppg and 2.4 apg for a combined total of 55.2).  Harden (29.1 ppg, 11.2 apg) and Westbrook (31.6 ppg, 10.4 apg) both have had seasons in that general total point range and they did it with far less points scored overall accounting for a much greater percentage of total offense than Wilt. 

The reason Wilt's individual records won't be matched is because no one will play anywhere close to the amount of minutes Wilt played.  That is what makes his season records untouchable.  The opposite is happening in football with respect to passing.  The numbers are getting more and more prolific.  The NFL records that seem like they won't be matched are things like Emmitt Smith's rushing yards (18,355).  I just can't see a RB getting anywhere near him.  Frankly, I'm not sure we will see another RB even hit Adrian Peterson's 14,918 which is good enough for 5th all time.  The closest active player to Peterson is Mark Ingram at 7900.  For as good as Derrick Henry has been, he has just 6879, which is actually less than Ezekiel Elliott and his 7438.  Melvin Gordon is the only other active RB with at least 5,000 yards (he has 6144).  Russell Wilson is actually 166th all time with 4689 rushing yards.
I agree about running backs but still have to push back on the passing yards thing. There's only been 14 regular season performances of 5000 in the history of the league and for someone to reach Brady's mark, they have to average 5000 for 20 straight years.

Yes, the game is changing but you're talking a string of years where the QB would need to be not only elite but healthy. And there in lies the problem. Brady's ability to be available for every game for 21 out of 22 years is unprecedented for anyone who isn't Brady or a placekicker.

QBs are vulnerable to some of the worst hits you can get. Look at that blindsided hit of Mac Jones yesterday for an example. You get too many of those and suddenly you are not playing 20 years or until you're 40. And the fact is, QBs generally don't last that long because of those types of hits every game.

And if the QB was to do it, he has to have the proper weapons to put up those yards for 20 years and play for coaches that will allow him to throw that much for 20 healthy years. That's not easy to do. Just look at the careers of Manning, Brees and Rodgers for proof of that.

Is it possible Brady's records fall....sure. But the likelihood is extremely small in my mind. Like miniscule, microscopic.

 


Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #63 on: September 12, 2022, 09:51:27 AM »

Offline Moranis

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There is an extra game and you are also adding in the post-season which makes 5k a lot easier.  I mean Mahomes had 1057 yards in the playoffs last year and they didn't even make the Super Bowl add that to his 4839 regular season numbers and he was just shy of 5900 yards last year.  3 of his 4 years he has been over 5500 combined.  If he plays to 40 with relatively good health, he is going to be awfully close to 100k if not more than that.  He obviously has to stay healthy though, which is clearly not a guarantee. 
I was finally wrong. Boston not only didn't win in 5, but didn't win at all.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #64 on: September 12, 2022, 10:13:40 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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There is an extra game and you are also adding in the post-season which makes 5k a lot easier.  I mean Mahomes had 1057 yards in the playoffs last year and they didn't even make the Super Bowl add that to his 4839 regular season numbers and he was just shy of 5900 yards last year.  3 of his 4 years he has been over 5500 combined.  If he plays to 40 with relatively good health, he is going to be awfully close to 100k if not more than that.  He obviously has to stay healthy though, which is clearly not a guarantee.
Yeah, now let's see him do it for 15 more years where his salary will be a major issue for the team surrounding him with the proper protection and weapons to do it. Brady gave back major money and played for well under what he was worth so Belichick could surround him with proper talent. Until he had to pay that salary bill. Then Tom had a couple okay years and left because that bill had to be paid.

I'm going to leave this Convo. TP for it but I think everything that needs to be said has been said. Let's wait 15 years and see who is right.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #65 on: September 12, 2022, 10:26:26 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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The longevity thing is what will end up getting most guys.  How many football players will a) actually want to play to their mid 40s b) play at a Pro Bowl caliber if they do reach their 40s?  This on top of already having nearly two decades of hall of fame play preceding that. 

Never say never.  We're heading towards to an 18 game schedule at some point so the extra games will help but I don't know how many quarterbacks will play 20+ seasons and do it at a high enough level to reach Brady.


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Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #66 on: September 12, 2022, 11:06:30 AM »

Offline Moranis

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The longevity thing is what will end up getting most guys.  How many football players will a) actually want to play to their mid 40s b) play at a Pro Bowl caliber if they do reach their 40s?  This on top of already having nearly two decades of hall of fame play preceding that. 

Never say never.  We're heading towards to an 18 game schedule at some point so the extra games will help but I don't know how many quarterbacks will play 20+ seasons and do it at a high enough level to reach Brady.
I just don't think they will need to play 20+ seasons to do it.  I guess that is the difference.  17 years might be enough and while that doesn't happen all that often, it isn't all that rare either.  Guy obviously has to stay healthy and produce at a high level, but we are seeing more and more incredible games and seasons from QB's. 
I was finally wrong. Boston not only didn't win in 5, but didn't win at all.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #67 on: September 12, 2022, 11:15:23 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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The longevity thing is what will end up getting most guys.  How many football players will a) actually want to play to their mid 40s b) play at a Pro Bowl caliber if they do reach their 40s?  This on top of already having nearly two decades of hall of fame play preceding that. 

Never say never.  We're heading towards to an 18 game schedule at some point so the extra games will help but I don't know how many quarterbacks will play 20+ seasons and do it at a high enough level to reach Brady.
I just don't think they will need to play 20+ seasons to do it.  I guess that is the difference.  17 years might be enough and while that doesn't happen all that often, it isn't all that rare either.  Guy obviously has to stay healthy and produce at a high level, but we are seeing more and more incredible games and seasons from QB's.
Only about 20 QBs have ever played 17+ seasons in the history of the NFL and most were when the QB handed off the ball a whole bunch so weren't as physically exposed as modern QBs are.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #68 on: September 12, 2022, 11:31:32 AM »

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So far Brady looks like he's still playing like he's 25 at age 45...throwing lasers and darts to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans

And Julio Jones! Man, if Jones and Evans stay healthy all year ...
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Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #69 on: September 12, 2022, 11:37:34 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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The longevity thing is what will end up getting most guys.  How many football players will a) actually want to play to their mid 40s b) play at a Pro Bowl caliber if they do reach their 40s?  This on top of already having nearly two decades of hall of fame play preceding that. 

Never say never.  We're heading towards to an 18 game schedule at some point so the extra games will help but I don't know how many quarterbacks will play 20+ seasons and do it at a high enough level to reach Brady.
I just don't think they will need to play 20+ seasons to do it.  I guess that is the difference.  17 years might be enough and while that doesn't happen all that often, it isn't all that rare either.  Guy obviously has to stay healthy and produce at a high level, but we are seeing more and more incredible games and seasons from QB's.

17 straight seasons of 5,000+ yards passing is a helluva bar.


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Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #70 on: September 12, 2022, 11:54:46 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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The longevity thing is what will end up getting most guys.  How many football players will a) actually want to play to their mid 40s b) play at a Pro Bowl caliber if they do reach their 40s?  This on top of already having nearly two decades of hall of fame play preceding that. 

Never say never.  We're heading towards to an 18 game schedule at some point so the extra games will help but I don't know how many quarterbacks will play 20+ seasons and do it at a high enough level to reach Brady.
I just don't think they will need to play 20+ seasons to do it.  I guess that is the difference.  17 years might be enough and while that doesn't happen all that often, it isn't all that rare either.  Guy obviously has to stay healthy and produce at a high level, but we are seeing more and more incredible games and seasons from QB's.

17 straight seasons of 5,000+ yards passing is a helluva bar.

Yeah.  It's theoretically possible, but the way Mahomes is out there creating plays on his feet, I expect that he'll take some pretty big hits over time.


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Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #71 on: September 12, 2022, 12:42:29 PM »

Offline Moranis

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The longevity thing is what will end up getting most guys.  How many football players will a) actually want to play to their mid 40s b) play at a Pro Bowl caliber if they do reach their 40s?  This on top of already having nearly two decades of hall of fame play preceding that. 

Never say never.  We're heading towards to an 18 game schedule at some point so the extra games will help but I don't know how many quarterbacks will play 20+ seasons and do it at a high enough level to reach Brady.
I just don't think they will need to play 20+ seasons to do it.  I guess that is the difference.  17 years might be enough and while that doesn't happen all that often, it isn't all that rare either.  Guy obviously has to stay healthy and produce at a high level, but we are seeing more and more incredible games and seasons from QB's.
Only about 20 QBs have ever played 17+ seasons in the history of the NFL and most were when the QB handed off the ball a whole bunch so weren't as physically exposed as modern QBs are.
They also weren't as babied as they are today (which I expect to get even more).  There is a reason a lot of them with that level have retired fairly recently or are still playing i.e. Brady, Ben, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers, Fitzpatrick, Peyton

Again, me saying I don't think it is impossible, doesn't mean I think it is likely, I just don't think it is so miniscule that it will never happen.  The way the game has changed, makes it far easier for it to happen than had the game not changed.  That is why the running yards of Smith will never be eclipsed.  That is about as impossible to happen as anything.  I just don't see Brady's yards being on that level.  I mean Brees has almost as many regular season yards as Brady does.  People once thought Marino's record would never fall as well and he is down to 7th right now with 4 of the guys passing him by that weren't even in the league with him (when he retired he had like 10k more than Elway who was 2nd).
I was finally wrong. Boston not only didn't win in 5, but didn't win at all.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #72 on: September 12, 2022, 12:47:57 PM »

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The longevity thing is what will end up getting most guys.  How many football players will a) actually want to play to their mid 40s b) play at a Pro Bowl caliber if they do reach their 40s?  This on top of already having nearly two decades of hall of fame play preceding that. 

Never say never.  We're heading towards to an 18 game schedule at some point so the extra games will help but I don't know how many quarterbacks will play 20+ seasons and do it at a high enough level to reach Brady.
I just don't think they will need to play 20+ seasons to do it.  I guess that is the difference.  17 years might be enough and while that doesn't happen all that often, it isn't all that rare either.  Guy obviously has to stay healthy and produce at a high level, but we are seeing more and more incredible games and seasons from QB's.

17 straight seasons of 5,000+ yards passing is a helluva bar.

Yeah.  It's theoretically possible, but the way Mahomes is out there creating plays on his feet, I expect that he'll take some pretty big hits over time.

I think it is also worth pointing out that while guys like Breeís, Peyton, Brees, Ben and rivers all did have long careers, probably only rivers would have been wanted back by his team or any other team at the time their retirement. Brees basically couldnít throw more than 20 yards down field. Ben was the same and in a very ineffective offense. Same for Peyton. This wasnít cause they took some crazy hit and had busted up knees. Their arms shoulders and necks were just completely shot after playing that long. Brady being a fitness freak like Lebron is very unusual. I donít expect maholmes or Herbert to avoid these issues when they get in their mid 30ís.

Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #73 on: September 12, 2022, 01:02:06 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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I would love to know how the hell Mahomes is only 8th here after what he did yesterday.

Quote
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PFF's highest-graded QBs in Week 1 so far

1. Josh Allen - 91.5
2. Kirk Cousins - 85.1
3. Ryan Tannehill - 81.1
4. Justin Herbert - 79.8
5. Jameis Winston - 79.6
6. Lamar Jackson - 76.8
6. Jalen Hurts - 76.8
8. Patrick Mahomes - 71.5
9. Tom Brady - 70.0
10. Davis Mills - 68.1


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Re: NFL 2022 Season
« Reply #74 on: September 12, 2022, 01:10:37 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I would love to know how the hell Mahomes is only 8th here after what he did yesterday.

Quote
Jarad Evans
@PFF_Jarad
PFF's highest-graded QBs in Week 1 so far

1. Josh Allen - 91.5
2. Kirk Cousins - 85.1
3. Ryan Tannehill - 81.1
4. Justin Herbert - 79.8
5. Jameis Winston - 79.6
6. Lamar Jackson - 76.8
6. Jalen Hurts - 76.8
8. Patrick Mahomes - 71.5
9. Tom Brady - 70.0
10. Davis Mills - 68.1
i guess those 9 passes he missed, must have been terrible throws.

In all seriousness, I have often found the rankings they have to be strange.  I mean how can a guy go 30-39 for 360 yards, 5 TD's, and 0 INT's, whose team crushed their opponent, not be the best QB.  It is just weird.
I was finally wrong. Boston not only didn't win in 5, but didn't win at all.