21-22 College Football Thread

[Moranis]

Yes, Cincinnati has a road win at Notre Dame and at Indiana (back to back weeks).  They play Miami, OH every year.  They probably shouldn't have scheduled Murray St. as that is a bad team and a bad look on the schedule.  They will almost certainly play Houston in the AAC championship game, Houston currently only has 1 loss to Texas Tech to start their season.  They still have 7-2 SMU (which won at TCU earlier in the year).  The American is pretty clearly the best non-power 5 conference and frankly in some seasons has more depth and quality than the Pac 12 or Big 12 (probably not this year).

The more Notre Dame wins the harder it will be to keep Cinci out as ND now has wins over Purdue (looks a lot better now), Wisconsin, North Carolina, Southern Cal, etc. 

That said if Oregon, Ohio St., and Oklahoma all win out they will make it along with Georgia.  Disaster strikes if Alabama beats Georgia.  Everyone needs Georgia to win that game.

[tazzmaniac]

College Football Playoffs need to be 8-teams, not 4.

I mean what's the point of teams like Cincy going on these runs if you're going to always just put the power conference teams ahead anyways.

Like seriously, Notre Dame ends up in some of these Final 4s and then they go in and get walloped by Alabama over and over. Lets give some of these other teams a chance with an 8-team bracket. 4-teams was always dumb and it seems those formats always have 2 SEC teams in it even if they have 1-2 losses.

Why don't you just admit then that it's a 4-team bracket with 2-3 SEC Teams, 1-2 Big 10 teams and 1 team from either the ACC or Big 12. That's basically what it is anyways.

I understand Cincy's schedule isn't as fierce as some of these other teams, but then how is CIN ranked #2 in the nation currently? Why not just keep them at like #10 and say, "sorry, schedule isn't as great".

Cincy could have had a real non-conference schedule to help counteract that.  But they played a MAC team and an FCS team.  Their Big 10 win was against Indiana, which is the only team to have not won a conference game in the Big 10.  Winning by 14 at 2-7 Indiana is arguably their third toughest game on the schedule.  You shouldn’t get to go to the playoffs effectively based on one win.  I’m sure they’d get in during an 8-team playoff, but I’m not convinced they’d deserve to.  There are probably 8 other teams that could have gone undefeated with Cincy’s schedule.  There are certainly four.

Didn't Cincy also beat a Top-10 Notre Dame team?

Btw, to be clear to everyone I wasn't disagreeing with anyone or the points others are making, it's more so just my frustration with how the college football playoffs are formatted and decided upon. It feels like every year it's the same four teams. Usually 3 (or all) of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma with maybe the occasional Clemson, Notre Dame, or LSU sprinkled in somewhere.

Even if those teams lose 1 or even 2 games, evidently it doesn't seem to hurt them.

An 8-team playoff could make the field more interesting and offer more representation and chances for some other teams not in the Power-5 Conferences.

An occasional Clemson?   This will only be the 2nd year that Clemson has missed the playoffs. 
Georgia has only made the playoffs once.  There has never been the same four teams in the playoffs (.i.e. each playoff has been different). 

[tazzmaniac]

Yes, Cincinnati has a road win at Notre Dame and at Indiana (back to back weeks).  They play Miami, OH every year.  They probably shouldn't have scheduled Murray St. as that is a bad team and a bad look on the schedule.  They will almost certainly play Houston in the AAC championship game, Houston currently only has 1 loss to Texas Tech to start their season.  They still have 7-2 SMU (which won at TCU earlier in the year).  The American is pretty clearly the best non-power 5 conference and frankly in some seasons has more depth and quality than the Pac 12 or Big 12 (probably not this year).

The more Notre Dame wins the harder it will be to keep Cinci out as ND now has wins over Purdue (looks a lot better now), Wisconsin, North Carolina, Southern Cal, etc. 

That said if Oregon, Ohio St., and Oklahoma all win out they will make it along with Georgia.  Disaster strikes if Alabama beats Georgia.  Everyone needs Georgia to win that game.

Cincinnati had an off week between playing Indiana and Notre Dame.  Besides Indiana is pretty lousy.

[celticsclay]

Yes, Cincinnati has a road win at Notre Dame and at Indiana (back to back weeks).  They play Miami, OH every year.  They probably shouldn't have scheduled Murray St. as that is a bad team and a bad look on the schedule.  They will almost certainly play Houston in the AAC championship game, Houston currently only has 1 loss to Texas Tech to start their season.  They still have 7-2 SMU (which won at TCU earlier in the year).  The American is pretty clearly the best non-power 5 conference and frankly in some seasons has more depth and quality than the Pac 12 or Big 12 (probably not this year).

The more Notre Dame wins the harder it will be to keep Cinci out as ND now has wins over Purdue (looks a lot better now), Wisconsin, North Carolina, Southern Cal, etc. 

That said if Oregon, Ohio St., and Oklahoma all win out they will make it along with Georgia.  Disaster strikes if Alabama beats Georgia.  Everyone needs Georgia to win that game.

Has cinci not had a better year than Oklahoma?

[Moranis]

Yes, Cincinnati has a road win at Notre Dame and at Indiana (back to back weeks).  They play Miami, OH every year.  They probably shouldn't have scheduled Murray St. as that is a bad team and a bad look on the schedule.  They will almost certainly play Houston in the AAC championship game, Houston currently only has 1 loss to Texas Tech to start their season.  They still have 7-2 SMU (which won at TCU earlier in the year).  The American is pretty clearly the best non-power 5 conference and frankly in some seasons has more depth and quality than the Pac 12 or Big 12 (probably not this year).

The more Notre Dame wins the harder it will be to keep Cinci out as ND now has wins over Purdue (looks a lot better now), Wisconsin, North Carolina, Southern Cal, etc. 

That said if Oregon, Ohio St., and Oklahoma all win out they will make it along with Georgia.  Disaster strikes if Alabama beats Georgia.  Everyone needs Georgia to win that game.

Has cinci not had a better year than Oklahoma?

so far sure, but OU still has 7-2 Baylor, 6-3 Iowa St, and 8-1 Okie St, plus probably Okie St. again.  And they are in the Big 12.  If it comes down to unbeaten Oklahoma vs. unbeaten Cincinnati, then Oklahoma will be in the playoff and Cincinnati will not.

As I've said, last year was the year they should have put Cincinnati in.  It was a weird year and there wasn't a 4th team that was deserving in any manner. 

[tazzmaniac]

It'll be interesting to see how far Michigan State falls.  If the committee prioritizes their H2H victory like they did with Oregon over OSU, they'll only drop 3 spots to keep them ahead of Michigan. 

[Celtics2021]

It'll be interesting to see how far Michigan State falls.  If the committee prioritizes their H2H victory like they did with Oregon over OSU, they'll only drop 3 spots to keep them ahead of Michigan.

I’d put them 5, personally.

[tazzmaniac]

It'll be interesting to see how far Michigan State falls.  If the committee prioritizes their H2H victory like they did with Oregon over OSU, they'll only drop 3 spots to keep them ahead of Michigan.

I’d put them 5, personally.

Ahead of Cincy? 

[Moranis]

I'd guess the rankings will be

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio St.
5. Cincinnati
6. Oklahoma
7. Michigan St.
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. A&M

[Celtics2021]

It'll be interesting to see how far Michigan State falls.  If the committee prioritizes their H2H victory like they did with Oregon over OSU, they'll only drop 3 spots to keep them ahead of Michigan.

I’d put them 5, personally.

Ahead of Cincy?

Yes.  I don't think winning by one score at home against 3-6 Tulsa is more impressive than not beating 6-3 Purdue on the road.  The betting lines agree, as they had Cincy a 22.5 favorite, compared to MSU a 2.5 point favorite.  MSU underperformed by 13.5 points, Cincy by14.5 points.

If it were my ballot, Cincy would be 8.

[Celtics2021]

I'd guess the rankings will be

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio St.
5. Cincinnati
6. Oklahoma
7. Michigan St.
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. A&M

No way is Michigan dropping a spot to Oklahoma after winning comfortably in a week where OU didn't even play.  That's nonsensical, even by the CFP Committee's standards.

[Moranis]

I'd guess the rankings will be

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio St.
5. Cincinnati
6. Oklahoma
7. Michigan St.
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. A&M

No way is Michigan dropping a spot to Oklahoma after winning comfortably in a week where OU didn't even play.  That's nonsensical, even by the CFP Committee's standards.

But Michigan's loss is now much worse and Michigan never should have been ahead of Oklahoma to begin with.  Michigan has played just 4 teams with a winning record, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan (from the MAC), Michigan St. (which beat them), and Wisconsin.  So just 1 win against a power 5 team with a winning record.  They have a weak schedule and lost to the only good team they played.  They absolutely should be behind Oklahoma (which is what I think the committee will do) and frankly, if I was doing the rankings they'd also be behind Notre Dame (who I think is ranked where they are so the committee can feel better about keeping Cincinnati out of the top 4). 

My own personal rankings would look a lot more like the coaches poll than what the playoff committee put out.  I wouldn't exactly match the coaches poll, but a lot closer.

[Celtics2021]

I'd guess the rankings will be

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio St.
5. Cincinnati
6. Oklahoma
7. Michigan St.
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. A&M

No way is Michigan dropping a spot to Oklahoma after winning comfortably in a week where OU didn't even play.  That's nonsensical, even by the CFP Committee's standards.

But Michigan's loss is now much worse and Michigan never should have been ahead of Oklahoma to begin with.  Michigan has played just 4 teams with a winning record, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan (from the MAC), Michigan St. (which beat them), and Wisconsin.  So just 1 win against a power 5 team with a winning record.  They have a weak schedule and lost to the only good team they played.  They absolutely should be behind Oklahoma (which is what I think the committee will do) and frankly, if I was doing the rankings they'd also be behind Notre Dame (who I think is ranked where they are so the committee can feel better about keeping Cincinnati out of the top 4). 

My own personal rankings would look a lot more like the coaches poll than what the playoff committee put out.  I wouldn't exactly match the coaches poll, but a lot closer.

Michigan’s loss isn’t “much worse”.  It’s a road loss in a very close game that likely all the panelists watched to a top-10 rival.  Purdue will likely be ranked by the CFP, 6-3 with wins over Iowa and MSU, so MSU’s loss, while not great, isn’t disqualifying.

If the committee wants to move OU over Michigan, they’ll have their opportunity later after OU wins some of their upcoming games.  Nothing was learned about Michigan and OU this weekend that changes where they were relative to a week ago.

I think the Committee would be justified putting MSU 5; they’ll probably put them at 6.  There’s no reason to play with 7 and 8.

[Moranis]

I'd guess the rankings will be

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio St.
5. Cincinnati
6. Oklahoma
7. Michigan St.
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. A&M

No way is Michigan dropping a spot to Oklahoma after winning comfortably in a week where OU didn't even play.  That's nonsensical, even by the CFP Committee's standards.

But Michigan's loss is now much worse and Michigan never should have been ahead of Oklahoma to begin with.  Michigan has played just 4 teams with a winning record, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan (from the MAC), Michigan St. (which beat them), and Wisconsin.  So just 1 win against a power 5 team with a winning record.  They have a weak schedule and lost to the only good team they played.  They absolutely should be behind Oklahoma (which is what I think the committee will do) and frankly, if I was doing the rankings they'd also be behind Notre Dame (who I think is ranked where they are so the committee can feel better about keeping Cincinnati out of the top 4). 

My own personal rankings would look a lot more like the coaches poll than what the playoff committee put out.  I wouldn't exactly match the coaches poll, but a lot closer.

Michigan’s loss isn’t “much worse”.  It’s a road loss in a very close game that likely all the panelists watched to a top-10 rival.  Purdue will likely be ranked by the CFP, 6-3 with wins over Iowa and MSU, so MSU’s loss, while not great, isn’t disqualifying.

If the committee wants to move OU over Michigan, they’ll have their opportunity later after OU wins some of their upcoming games.  Nothing was learned about Michigan and OU this weekend that changes where they were relative to a week ago.

I think the Committee would be justified putting MSU 5; they’ll probably put them at 6.  There’s no reason to play with 7 and 8.

Michigan St., like Michigan hasn't really played anyone (other than each other).  I mean Miami (FL), Purdue, Michigan, and Western Kentucky are the only teams with a winning record they've played (they also played a 2-6 team from FCS along with Miami).  There is a reason they didn't even crack the top 10 in either poll for a very long time i.e. no one actually believed in them.  Michigan and Michigan St. have both played incredibly weak schedules.  They were both over-ranked last week and I expect the committee to right that ship some this week.  And I know Oklahoma hasn't played anyone yet either, I just don't think they are going to keep the 0 loss major conference team behind a 1 loss team that has lost to the only good team it played. 

And Notre Dame's win over Purdue keeps looking better and better, which makes Cincinnati's win over Notre Dame keep looking better.

[Moranis]

Rankings are out

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio St.
5. Cincinnati
6. Michigan
7. Michigan St.
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma St.