The Horford Durability Myth + Winning Impact

[#1P4P]

There’s an opinion circulating regarding Horford being injury prone that should be quashed because it’s false.

During his 14 season NBA career, he’s played in 881 out of 1,129 total games (78%). In the 2020-21 season, the Thunder requested his leave to tank redistribute his minutes to the prospects on the team. Removing 2020-21 season, his availability moves to 853/1057 games (81%) and if we limit the sample size to only the last 5 seasons without 2020-21, it goes up to 275/319 (86%) of total games.

An interesting nugget from this is that OKC was 11-17 (39% Win%) with Horford and 11-33 (25% Win%) without him. A +14% Win%, which was the difference between having the 2nd worst record and the 7th this past season. Other than SGA and Dort, last season’s Thunder were built to tank, for him to have that kind of impact while playing a career low 27.9 MPG is amazing.

People seem to be dismissing him as salary fodder for a Kemba salary dump. Well… Al is durable, consistent, impacts winning, and has an old man’s game that ages well. Unlike 3rd options from other teams, he’s steady in the regular season and playoffs, at home and on the road. People are going to be pleasantly surprised by the results when it’s all said and done.

[GreenlyGreeny]

💯

Said it before and will say it again: We’ve been missing something the last two seasons, and his name is Al.

Frankly, Big Al May end up doing for us what CP3 did for Booker/Ayton in Phoenix this past season.

[gouki88]

I don't really agree with crediting Horford for that huge difference in W-L when he was playing vs when he wasn't, given Shai was out too. In Shai's games they were 16-19, going 6-31 in the others. I think that is much more telling than Horford's time out.

If he can bring his FG% back to what it was when he was last here then that plus his passing and defensive IQ will be huge for us. But we're not adding an all-time great, like Phoenix did with CP3 (Phoenix were also trending up, as seen in their bubble play).

[SparzWizard]

Would the Celtics have beaten the Miami Heat in the ECF back in 2020 with Al Horford? I think so.

They would've also done quick work against Toronto and gotten that extra rest. Horford would've provided veteran playoff experience to the young guys.

I think he'll be an impactful player this season.

[#1P4P]

I don't really agree with crediting Horford for that huge difference in W-L when he was playing vs when he wasn't, given Shai was out too. In Shai's games they were 16-19, going 6-31 in the others. I think that is much more telling than Horford's time out.

If he can bring his FG% back to what it was when he was last here then that plus his passing and defensive IQ will be huge for us. But we're not adding an all-time great, like Phoenix did with CP3 (Phoenix were also trending up, as seen in their bubble play).

Giving Horford credit for his impact on winning does not exclude giving SGA credit for his. I never stated Al had the most impact on winning, simply that he has an impact on winning and a vital one at that. To disagree with that because SGA had a better in/out record is disingenuous.

They were both a part of OKC’s most used and best lineup with a enough sample size. Horford had a +6.1 On/Off Differential (84th percentile pace), +5.8 Net Rating per 100, and +11 Expected Wins as opposed to SGA’s +4.4 (76), +4.4, and +8.

Horford was on pace to rank among the top of NBA Centers in AST%, AST:usg, TOV%, defensive PPP, defensive ORB%, and defensive FT Rate, which means he makes the right read and pass without holding the ball, protects the possession, prevents points, boxes out to secure the defensive rebound, and doesn’t send opponents to the line. His 3P% at 37% would’ve placed him 8th at Center right behind Porzingis and Wood, and above Olynyk and Brook Lopez.

And the media/fans brush off Al while touting the Lowry to the Heat move like it makes them top 4 team in the East. We’ll see about that.

[gouki88]

I don't really agree with crediting Horford for that huge difference in W-L when he was playing vs when he wasn't, given Shai was out too. In Shai's games they were 16-19, going 6-31 in the others. I think that is much more telling than Horford's time out.

If he can bring his FG% back to what it was when he was last here then that plus his passing and defensive IQ will be huge for us. But we're not adding an all-time great, like Phoenix did with CP3 (Phoenix were also trending up, as seen in their bubble play).

Giving Horford credit for his impact on winning does not exclude giving SGA credit for his. I never stated Al had the most impact on winning, simply that he has an impact on winning and a vital one at that. To disagree with that because SGA had a better in/out record is disingenuous.

They were both a part of OKC’s most used and best lineup with a enough sample size. Horford had a +6.1 On/Off Differential (84th percentile pace), +5.8 Net Rating per 100, and +11 Expected Wins as opposed to SGA’s +4.4 (76), +4.4, and +8.

Horford was on pace to rank among the top of NBA Centers in AST%, AST:usg, TOV%, defensive PPP, defensive ORB%, and defensive FT Rate, which means he makes the right read and pass without holding the ball, protects the possession, prevents points, boxes out to secure the defensive rebound, and doesn’t send opponents to the line. His 3P% at 37% would’ve placed him 8th at Center right behind Porzingis and Wood, and above Olynyk and Brook Lopez.

And the media/fans brush off Al while touting the Lowry to the Heat move like it makes them top 4 team in the East. We’ll see about that.

I wasn't disagreeing with that in particular. The phrasing of "for him to have that kind of impact while playing a career low 27.9 MPG is amazing" implies that Al deserves the lions share of credit for that impact. Or at least to me it does.

I think Horford will for sure make a positive impact. His passing should open up a lot of looks for us, and his defensive know-how will really help. However, he's 35. He shouldn't be relied upon as some saviour figure.

[LilRip]

I don't really agree with crediting Horford for that huge difference in W-L when he was playing vs when he wasn't, given Shai was out too. In Shai's games they were 16-19, going 6-31 in the others. I think that is much more telling than Horford's time out.

If he can bring his FG% back to what it was when he was last here then that plus his passing and defensive IQ will be huge for us. But we're not adding an all-time great, like Phoenix did with CP3 (Phoenix were also trending up, as seen in their bubble play).

Giving Horford credit for his impact on winning does not exclude giving SGA credit for his. I never stated Al had the most impact on winning, simply that he has an impact on winning and a vital one at that. To disagree with that because SGA had a better in/out record is disingenuous.

They were both a part of OKC’s most used and best lineup with a enough sample size. Horford had a +6.1 On/Off Differential (84th percentile pace), +5.8 Net Rating per 100, and +11 Expected Wins as opposed to SGA’s +4.4 (76), +4.4, and +8.

Horford was on pace to rank among the top of NBA Centers in AST%, AST:usg, TOV%, defensive PPP, defensive ORB%, and defensive FT Rate, which means he makes the right read and pass without holding the ball, protects the possession, prevents points, boxes out to secure the defensive rebound, and doesn’t send opponents to the line. His 3P% at 37% would’ve placed him 8th at Center right behind Porzingis and Wood, and above Olynyk and Brook Lopez.

And the media/fans brush off Al while touting the Lowry to the Heat move like it makes them top 4 team in the East. We’ll see about that.

I wasn't disagreeing with that in particular. The phrasing of "for him to have that kind of impact while playing a career low 27.9 MPG is amazing" implies that Al deserves the lions share of credit for that impact. Or at least to me it does.

I think Horford will for sure make a positive impact. His passing should open up a lot of looks for us, and his defensive know-how will really help. However, he's 35. He shouldn't be relied upon as some saviour figure.

It’s really this ^^

Horford is a great fit for the team (better fit than Kemba imo) but the growth of the Jays will determine how far we’ll go this season. If Al was 4-5 years younger, I think we’d be a powerhouse with a legit big 3.

[Vermont Green]

Horford is a great fit for the team (better fit than Kemba imo) but the growth of the Jays will determine how far we’ll go this season. If Al was 4-5 years younger, I think we’d be a powerhouse with a legit big 3.

I don't see why both things can't be true.  Al Horford is a better fit for what this team needs as opposed to Kemba and also, Tatum and Brown will be the ones who will determine how far we go.  Both these things are clearly true.  It will be easier for Tatum and Brown with a decent big on the court but they are the main guys, no doubt.

Horford was about 14 pts / 7 rebs in 28 min last season, to state the most basic stats for a big.  That is pretty much his career average.  That included 37% 3PT%.  That is much better than anything any big on our team did last season.  I predict that he will share the C minutes with RWilliams who had 8 pts / 7 rebs in 19 minutes.  If we can get 22 pts / 14 rebs out of the center position, that will be great, a meaningful improvement.

I expect that Horford will remain durable but at 35, will need some games off but that is where Kanter comes in.  He is perfect for the spot minutes needed to fill in for rest, injury, or foul trouble.  I think our C position looks pretty good going into the season.  Horford should be a positive add to the team.  I see no reason not to expect say 24 minutes of productive play from him and maybe 70-75 games.

[Hoopvortex]

I don't really agree with crediting Horford for that huge difference in W-L when he was playing vs when he wasn't, given Shai was out too. In Shai's games they were 16-19, going 6-31 in the others. I think that is much more telling than Horford's time out.

If he can bring his FG% back to what it was when he was last here then that plus his passing and defensive IQ will be huge for us. But we're not adding an all-time great, like Phoenix did with CP3 (Phoenix were also trending up, as seen in their bubble play).

Giving Horford credit for his impact on winning does not exclude giving SGA credit for his. I never stated Al had the most impact on winning, simply that he has an impact on winning and a vital one at that. To disagree with that because SGA had a better in/out record is disingenuous.

They were both a part of OKC’s most used and best lineup with a enough sample size. Horford had a +6.1 On/Off Differential (84th percentile pace), +5.8 Net Rating per 100, and +11 Expected Wins as opposed to SGA’s +4.4 (76), +4.4, and +8.

Horford was on pace to rank among the top of NBA Centers in AST%, AST:usg, TOV%, defensive PPP, defensive ORB%, and defensive FT Rate, which means he makes the right read and pass without holding the ball, protects the possession, prevents points, boxes out to secure the defensive rebound, and doesn’t send opponents to the line. His 3P% at 37% would’ve placed him 8th at Center right behind Porzingis and Wood, and above Olynyk and Brook Lopez.

And the media/fans brush off Al while touting the Lowry to the Heat move like it makes them top 4 team in the East. We’ll see about that.

I wasn't disagreeing with that in particular. The phrasing of "for him to have that kind of impact while playing a career low 27.9 MPG is amazing" implies that Al deserves the lions share of credit for that impact. Or at least to me it does.

I think Horford will for sure make a positive impact. His passing should open up a lot of looks for us, and his defensive know-how will really help. However, he's 35. He shouldn't be relied upon as some saviour figure.

It’s really this ^^

Horford is a great fit for the team (better fit than Kemba imo) but the growth of the Jays will determine how far we’ll go this season. If Al was 4-5 years younger, I think we’d be a powerhouse with a legit big 3.

Until he played with Philadelphia, I would have said that Horford was a great fit anywhere. I'm still puzzled by that particular failure, and it's probably too easy to just blame the coach - but I really don't think they used him very effectively there.

Whether he's a better fit than Kemba is a big discussion. Kemba was a great fit the season before last (the Celtics were fourth in offense and fourth in defense) - but his body gave out, and it probably isn't coming back. (Probably not - but I'll never say never!)

Moreover, Boston has not replaced Kemba, whatever the value of Al Horford is. An ideal Kemba without knee issues is one of the top pick and roll ballhandlers, with elite handles and speed. Boston's coaching staff completely revamped their offense to suit his talents, and it paid off. That year was the best Celtics team offense in the Brad Stevens era.

Bringing in Horford should allow for more two-big lineups because of spacing and his ability to make decisions with the ball; remember that the most-used lineup one year had both Baynes and Horford in it - but coach might see it differently. Running offense through a big is definitely not outside his experience, though.

I predict a slow start.

[JBcat]

As much as I’m happy Horford is here and think he will help, I’m hoping R Williams takes the leap and grabs the reigns of the starting center spot.  That will bode well for our future if he can do that.  Horford might not even make it through the season if he is salary filler in a big mid season trade or at the very least next offseason in a sign and trade.  Unless if we offload Smart’s salary as the starting point, but that seems less likely.