2020 Historical Draft: ECF...#1 Boston vs #2 Milwaukee

[nickagneta]

Since these games have evolved, I have come to the decision that I think one on one comparisons of players is pretty much massively overblown. I like to look at the stats, try to get a baseline as to how the players would play, then try to imagine how the offenses and defenses would be used and how much synergy the players would have as a total team.

For that reason, I thought Who's Boston team would have by far the best total offensive synergy in this game the first ten players really meld well together and the bench brings in some nice skills the starters don't have to fill in the gaps. Boston will have the best offense and I do believe they have enough defense to win 4 out of 7 games in any series against any opponent in this game. Boston's defense isn't great but it is good enough.

I got Boston in this series

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

I do like the Bucks bench a lot. Tatum, Conley, Miller, Butler, and Reddick all fit this team well and were great draft picks, but I can't get over how the stars don't fit together well. They were a trade away, in my opinion.

Celtics
The more I looked at the Celtics roster, the most I thought they were the best team built together. Gasol and Gasol would be a really difficult matchup for any team just because of their intelligence and the feel for one another. Durant is as good as anyone in this draft. Nash would open so many easy shots for the Gasol brothers and stretch the floor for Durant.

I also love the other guys he drafted. Wallace could/should be a starter in this tournament. Granger and Jefferson are both versatile athletes that can play both sides of the court and score at a high level. Dragic and Stockton both fit as backups in this system. Houston and Richardson can stretch the floor on the wing. Hillario was a really underrated player during the best moments of his career.

I would have preferred that this team had one more truly elite guy on the wing with Durant, but I think this is the smartest team that fits together the best in this draft.

[Roy H.]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

[action781]

My thoughts on Boston's defense:

1) Nash and Houston truly are poor defenders.  Against teams with a point of attack from those positions, especially PG, that will create legitimate vulnerabilities.

2) I think Durant is a pretty good defender.  Not "elite", not "below average", better than "average" even.  I can't think of any SFs in this league where I'm like "Oh man, that guy would just murder Durant more than he'd murder other players".  He's got the size and he's a solid help-side defender/shot-blocker, particularly good for a SF.  I've looked at these numbers presented, but nothing I've seen has swayed me much to think otherwise.

3) Pau I always equated essentially to Dirk as a defender.  A below average defender at PF who was OK normally but would get eaten up by taller and stronger PFs (like KG or Duncan) and a guy who basically had no real chance of defending a legitimate center.  I think a guy like Andrew Bynum even would kill him.  That said, I imagine him being used exclusively at PF with Sheed defending the 5 when they share the floor.

[action781]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

[Roy H.]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

How many PGs spread the floor better than Conley’s 2017 season?  In the history of the NBA, three guys have averaged 2.5 3PM, 40% 3PT%, .600 TS%, and 5 APG.

Curry, yes.  He’s the best by war.  But Conley has done it, something that CP3, Nash, Deron, etc. never have.

That’s elite.

Conley: 2.5 3PM / 40.8% 3PT% /  .604 TS%
Manu: 2.1 3PM / 40.1% 3PT% / .612 TS%
Redick: 2.7 3PM / 47.5% 3PT% / .632 TS%
Reggie: 2.0 3PM / 40.8% 3PM / .603 TS%

Reggie is the worst of the bunch.

[Somebody]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

How many PGs spread the floor better than Conley’s 2017 season?  In the history of the NBA, three guys have averaged 2.5 3PM, 40% 3PT%, .600 TS%, and 5 SPG.

Curry, yes.  He’s the best by war.  But Conley has done it, something that CP3, Nash, Deron, etc. never have.

That’s elite.

^this. Conley is as elite as it gets for floor spacing PGs. He doesn't have insane range nor incredible dynamicism, but he drills threes at a very high clip.

[action781]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

How many PGs spread the floor better than Conley’s 2017 season?  In the history of the NBA, three guys have averaged 2.5 3PM, 40% 3PT%, .600 TS%, and 5 SPG.

Curry, yes.  He’s the best by war.  But Conley has done it, something that CP3, Nash, Deron, etc. never have.

That’s elite.

Conley: 2.5 3PM / 40.8% 3PT% /  .604 TS%
Manu: 2.1 3PM / 40.1% 3PT% / .612 TS%
Redick: 2.7 3PM / 47.5% 3PT% / .632 TS%
Reggie: 2.0 3PM / 40.8% 3PM / .603 TS%

Reggie is the worst of the bunch.

If you're stats are telling me that Reggie is a worse floor spacer than Conley, then I'm telling you that your stats are wrong.

[Roy H.]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

How many PGs spread the floor better than Conley’s 2017 season?  In the history of the NBA, three guys have averaged 2.5 3PM, 40% 3PT%, .600 TS%, and 5 SPG.

Curry, yes.  He’s the best by war.  But Conley has done it, something that CP3, Nash, Deron, etc. never have.

That’s elite.

Conley: 2.5 3PM / 40.8% 3PT% /  .604 TS%
Manu: 2.1 3PM / 40.1% 3PT% / .612 TS%
Redick: 2.7 3PM / 47.5% 3PT% / .632 TS%
Reggie: 2.0 3PM / 40.8% 3PM / .603 TS%

Reggie is the worst of the bunch.

If you're stats are telling me that Reggie is a worse floor spacer than Conley, then I'm telling you that your stats are wrong.

Efficiency is efficiency.  You can argue that Reggie would have adapted further to the modern game, but solely based on actual results in actual games played, all of Conley, Ginobili and Redick had better shooting seasons than Reggie.

Manu and Conley also scored more points per game than Reggie.  Reggie just doesn’t really hold up compared to modern players. For his career, he averaged 1.8 three pointers made, on 39.5% shooting and no defense, rebounding or passing. 

I am fine for people adjusting for eras, but if so then my guys deserve the same consideration.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

Gotchya. I assumed Rose was because his an MVP.

Not sure either are "elite" floor spacers, but both are good. Straight percentage doesn't always show how they space the floor or stretch the defense. That makes it a little better, but still a struggle.

[Roy H.]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

Gotchya. I assumed Rose was because his an MVP.

Not sure either are "elite" floor spacers, but both are good. That makes it a little better, but still a struggle.

I don’t necessarily see it like that, but I appreciate the feedback.

I love white rose can bring as an offense of engine, which is why I want him on the bench. He would be wasted beside Giannis.

Just to get your take on things, would you like the team better if Tatum was starting at small forward and Giannis was at power forward?  Or if Ibaka started and provided spacing?

I do not prefer that approach, but it is up to the imaginary coaching staff to figure out what matchup’s work best in each series.  If the team is better with four shooters on the floor, the Bucks certainly have the capability without losing height or defense.

[action781]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

How many PGs spread the floor better than Conley’s 2017 season?  In the history of the NBA, three guys have averaged 2.5 3PM, 40% 3PT%, .600 TS%, and 5 SPG.

Curry, yes.  He’s the best by war.  But Conley has done it, something that CP3, Nash, Deron, etc. never have.

That’s elite.

Conley: 2.5 3PM / 40.8% 3PT% /  .604 TS%
Manu: 2.1 3PM / 40.1% 3PT% / .612 TS%
Redick: 2.7 3PM / 47.5% 3PT% / .632 TS%
Reggie: 2.0 3PM / 40.8% 3PM / .603 TS%

Reggie is the worst of the bunch.

If you're stats are telling me that Reggie is a worse floor spacer than Conley, then I'm telling you that your stats are wrong.

Efficiency is efficiency.  You can’t argue with that Reggie would have adapted further to the modern game, but solely based on actual results an actual game is played, all of Conley, Ginobili and Redick had better shooting seasons than Reggie.

I'm not arguing the efficiency.  I'm not arguing that Conley had 1 season in his career that was an abnormally high 3 point %.  I'm arguing that Conley wasn't a better floor spacer than Reggie.  By your stats and logic, there is a list of 40+ players who are all better floor spacers than Reggie Miller.  You know very well that numbers don't always tell the whole story, I've heard you discuss it at length.  It's the case here too.  You are absolutely free to disagree with that if you want to, but I see something fishy in the stats that say that 40+ players are better floor spacers than Reggie Miller.

[Somebody]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

How many PGs spread the floor better than Conley’s 2017 season?  In the history of the NBA, three guys have averaged 2.5 3PM, 40% 3PT%, .600 TS%, and 5 SPG.

Curry, yes.  He’s the best by war.  But Conley has done it, something that CP3, Nash, Deron, etc. never have.

That’s elite.

Conley: 2.5 3PM / 40.8% 3PT% /  .604 TS%
Manu: 2.1 3PM / 40.1% 3PT% / .612 TS%
Redick: 2.7 3PM / 47.5% 3PT% / .632 TS%
Reggie: 2.0 3PM / 40.8% 3PM / .603 TS%

Reggie is the worst of the bunch.

If you're stats are telling me that Reggie is a worse floor spacer than Conley, then I'm telling you that your stats are wrong.

Efficiency is efficiency.  You can argue that Reggie would have adapted further to the modern game, but solely based on actual results in actual games played, all of Conley, Ginobili and Redick had better shooting seasons than Reggie.

Manu and Conley also scored more points per game than Reggie.  Reggie just doesn’t really hold up compared to modern players. For his career, he averaged 1.8 three pointers made, on 39.5% shooting and no defense, rebounding or passing. 

I am fine for people adjusting for eras, but if so then my guys deserve the same consideration.

To be fair Miller always exploded in the playoffs, his 2000 postseason had him making 2.6 triples per game at a 39.5% clip against some elite defences. I think he's at least on the level of Conley and Manu even if you don't adjust for era (and I don't see people not doing so, I adjust for everyone in older eras to varying degrees).

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

Gotchya. I assumed Rose was because his an MVP.

Not sure either are "elite" floor spacers, but both are good. That makes it a little better, but still a struggle.

I don’t necessarily see it like that, but I appreciate the feedback.

I love white rose can bring as an offense of engine, which is why I want him on the bench. He would be wasted beside Giannis.

Just to get your take on things, would you like the team better if Tatum was starting at small forward and Giannis was at power forward?  Or if Ibaka started and provided spacing?

I do not prefer that approach, but it is up to the imaginary coaching staff to figure out what matchup’s work best in each series.  If the team is better with four shooters on the floor, the Bucks certainly have the capability without losing height or defense.

Thanks for being open to conversation. I like the fit of the team much better with Tatum or Ibaka, but I also think they are a rung below, which lowers the overall talent of the lineup.

Of all the guards to have with three non-shooters, I think Ginobli and Conley are two of the best options.

[Roy H.]

Bucks
I just can't get over how poor the floor spacing would be with this team. The starting lineup has one shooter. Rose and Giannis' ability to get to the rim is mitigated by the poor floor spacing. Mourning's ability as a post up scorer is mitigated by not having shooting (even the year that was picked for mourning, He had Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn in the starting lineup to spread the floor a bit). Malone was a bit better of an outside shooter, but I think some of his scoring inside is taken away as well.

Conley and Manu are starting.  They’re both elite floor spacers.

It always has irked me how easily the word "elite" is thrown around in this game so often.  Are these guys even top 20 floor spacers in this game?  When I think "elite" that means something like they are in the discussion for the best or maybe second best.

They aren't even in the same league as guys like Reggie, Ray, Curry, Durant, Klay, Redick, Korver, Nash for floor spreading.  Even guys like Trae Young, Harden, Redd, Houston, Nash, Lillard, Kobe, Pierce, Kevin Martin are IMO better floor spacers than Conley and Manu.  There are dozens of more players that could easily be argued as better floor spreaders than Manu and/or Conley.

How many PGs spread the floor better than Conley’s 2017 season?  In the history of the NBA, three guys have averaged 2.5 3PM, 40% 3PT%, .600 TS%, and 5 SPG.

Curry, yes.  He’s the best by war.  But Conley has done it, something that CP3, Nash, Deron, etc. never have.

That’s elite.

Conley: 2.5 3PM / 40.8% 3PT% /  .604 TS%
Manu: 2.1 3PM / 40.1% 3PT% / .612 TS%
Redick: 2.7 3PM / 47.5% 3PT% / .632 TS%
Reggie: 2.0 3PM / 40.8% 3PM / .603 TS%

Reggie is the worst of the bunch.

If you're stats are telling me that Reggie is a worse floor spacer than Conley, then I'm telling you that your stats are wrong.

Efficiency is efficiency.  You can’t argue with that Reggie would have adapted further to the modern game, but solely based on actual results an actual game is played, all of Conley, Ginobili and Redick had better shooting seasons than Reggie.

I'm not arguing the efficiency.  I'm not arguing that Conley had 1 season in his career that was an abnormally high 3 point %.  I'm arguing that Conley wasn't a better floor spacer than Reggie.  By your stats and logic, there is a list of 40+ players who are all better floor spacers than Reggie Miller.  You know very well that numbers don't always tell the whole story, I've heard you discuss it at length.  It's the case here too.  You are absolutely free to disagree with that if you want to, but I see something fishy in the stats that say that 40+ players are better floor spacers than Reggie Miller.

It’s true.  And you know what else?  If you plopped Larry Bird down in the modern era without adjustment, there would be 40+ better spacers than him, too.

Whichever route you go, it has to be consistent.  You either allow all players to adapt to the modern era, or you allow nobody to. What you can’t do is say that guys like Nash and Reggie would adapt, but guys like Malone and Mourning (and other bigs with a consistent jump shot) would not.

And, if Reggie improves his frequency of shooting, why wouldn’t Ginobili do the same? He played 12 years ago, as compared to 20 years ago for Reggie. If one would improve their outside shooting, presumably the other would as well.