Roy,
Since most of the contract talks per this thread occurred prior to the start of this season, I wanted to confirm with you what you think Powe's status is for next year. I know this has been discussed before but that was months ago and Powe has certainly reached a new level of interest with not only the Celtics but other teams around the league. Since Powe is not under contract after this season, is his situation similar to Gilbert Arenas's situation with the Warriors several years ago? Since the Celtics will probably want to sign Rondo with I imagine a MLE, what does that leave for somebody like Powe or some of the other players the Celtics may want to re-sign?
While I believe only part of Powe's contract is guaranteed for next season, the team will almost certainly pick up his option, which is for the minimum salary. It's pretty much a no-brainer. Once Powe plays his third season here without changing teams, we get his "Bird rights", which means we can resign him for any amount, without having to use the MLE, etc.
The same is true of Rondo; we can go over the cap to sign him because we'll have his Bird rights. On the other hand, we *won't* have Bird rights to House, or Posey if he opts out of his contract. We'd have to sign them with the MLE, or another exception.
Roy,
Thanks for your response. I did a little more googling on Arenas and found this:
When he does look, he won't like what he sees. Arenas and the Warriors are caught in a loophole. The NBA has been careful to design its contract rules to limit player movement. Teams have the right to sign their own players to any contract up to the league maximum, even if the team is over the salary cap, thanks to the "Larry Bird exception."
Problem is, these rules only go into effect when a player has been with a team three straight years. Arenas is a unique case, because he was a second-round pick and did not get the guaranteed three-year contract first-round picks get. He has no Bird rights, which means, essentially, the Warriors have no significant advantages over other teams when it comes to keeping him.
Arenas is a restricted free agent, so Golden State can match any offer he gets, but because the Warriors are over the salary cap, and because Bird rights are nut involved, they must use a salary-cap exception as their matching offer. The biggest exception they will have is the midlevel exception, which should be about $4.3 million. If a team offers more than the midlevel exception, the Warriors can't match.
That's why Arenas' breakout year is bad for Golden State. Ask any general manager about the upcoming free agent market, and Arenas is the first name that comes up. One general manager estimates Arenas will get a contract starting in the $8 million a year range, a big jump from the $500,000 he's getting this season. Big names such as Jason Kidd and Gary Payton will be on the market, but they are heading into the downside of their careers. Arenas is 21, and for a team with cap space, he could be a building block for the next decade.
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Did Ainge do something (per the CBA) to prevent Powe from becoming a free agent, restricted or otherwise? Going into this season, Powe was definitely not on the Celtics radar as somebody they wanted to keep and because of this, I don't think his contract was guaranteed. If Powe turned out like most second rounders do, the Celtics would have just cut him. Since Powe didn't reach the statistical incentives to guarantee his 2008-9 contract, why would the Celtics hold any special leverage over him? If Powe's case is similar to Arenas's, then it appears the Celtics don't have any Bird rights on Powe. Perhaps, it may boil down to the type of contract Powe had signed i.e. the first year being guaranteed which might have kicked in some sort of first right for the Celtics to retain Powe over first 3 years.
Powe's situation is nothing like Arena's. First off, they closed the loophole (mostly) that allowed Arenas to go to the Wizards. But more importantly, Arenas was on a 2 year rookie contract with Golden State, which meant they did not have full Bird Rights on him, only Early Bird rights (which mean they can sign him up to the leave average...which is the same as the MLE... without having to use the MLE).
Powe on the other hand signed a 3 year contract. Ainge purposely used part of his MLE to sign Powe to a 3 year deal, rather than the standard 2 year second round pick deal, so that he would in fact have full Bird Rights on him. The fact that the team has options on him for the 2nd and 3rd year is irrevalent. If the team picks up the options (which they will, and have every right to do), then he will have met the requirement to be a full Bird Rights player, and the C's can sign him for as much as they want after next year, when (I believe) he will be a restricted FA.