Author Topic: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(TIME TO REVEAL THE WINNER!!!)  (Read 191598 times)

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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #330 on: August 23, 2019, 11:59:47 AM »

Offline Who

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4. Slight reach. Bird has a top 5 offensive peak but it didn’t match with his best defensive seasons in 80-84. Not sure if all time offense and above average defense (not elite or great) equals top 4.

Not sure how old you are Somebody, but this take makes me think you are fairly young and never got to see Bird.

Bird was all-time great offensively, from his sophomore season on and was a great team defender up until he got hurt in 1988. His All-Defense 2nd team selections were based not on Bird's individual defense but how, in an era of illegal defense calls and straight man to man defense, he was able to funnel his man into help, play passing lanes off ball, double team hard at the right time and help from the weak side. This was especially important as teams during that time used to love sticking one man on one side of the floor and four men on the other and let the player iso. Helping at the right time was huge.

Bird could score in an elite manner from everywhere. And he was already playing great defense in a team oriented style, something done way more after the defensive rule changes. His passing was better than LeBron's as was his rebounding.

Then you have his intangibles. He was as clutch as there was in this league ever. He was an incredible team leader that commanded respect. He made everyone who played with him better, something a lot of current stars don't really do. And he could blend styles of play like no other.

Bird was far from a reach at 4.
I'm going to be starting college this fall so you got me lol. Bird was not all-time great offensively starting from his sophomore season-from what I've seen and read he was a bit too rash in decision making and took a bit too many tough shots, which hampered his efficiency. His offensive tendencies to shoot outside and finish with crafty moves also limited his free throw attempts, which spike efficiency, and Bird's lack of them hurts him relative to other great scorers. He became all time great offensively from the 84-85 season by cleaning up his shot selection and improving his shot making, but unfortunately wasn't the same defensive savant by then. Really think he's a stretch to be picked at #4, just my opinion.

You are viewing only Bird's scoring here when rating his overall offense. Add the scoring and passing together and you have one of the best offensive player ever.

Right from day one.


...............

* 3 straight MVPs 84-86
* Runner up for MVP 81-83
* Legit MVP candidate as a rookie (finished 4th, was overlooked at 4 and should have been either 1 or 2 next to Kareem)
Then 3rd in 87 and 2nd again in 88.


That is an incredible run of individual dominance over his first 9 years. 3 times the best. 4 times second best. Once 3rd and once 4th (and he was overlooked being as low as four) .... heck, the year Bird was 3rd in 1987 he should have finished 2nd ahead of MJ (MJ still to selfish at that point).
Scoring is very important lol. Bird wasn't miles ahead of the other all time offensive greats when it comes to passing to make up for his deficiencies in scoring, especially in his earlier days when he wasn't as good at making inefficient shots compared to his prime with no real way of ramping it up if he's cold (can't draw 10+ FTs like other offensive greats even if he has a bad game shooting wise). Does offense that's a rung below all time great combined with all-time creation skills push his offense in the early days to top 5 all time, where he's competing against amazing scoring/efficiency/creation profiles in the primes of Jordan/LeBron/Magic ,an unmatched combination of volume and high efficiency scoring in 2000 Shaq, and finally the complete package of our very own prime Larry Bird? I'm talking about 81-84 Bird offensively, not 85-88 Bird.

Top 5 offensive peak ever ... now that is something that is going to require some thinking.

If using only season per player, I reckon Bird (81-84) would come pretty close to that. Maybe just outside the top 5.

Not sure how to rate him against Shaq. Bird did more to help his teammates and make them better offensively than Shaq did. Then there are two other guards along with Magic. MJ. Hmm ...

Tough question.

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #331 on: August 23, 2019, 12:08:06 PM »

Offline Who

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I don't actually think this past season was Kawhi's best season.  Either of his last two "full" seasons in San Antonio he was better in my opinion (higher WS/48, higher VORP, BPM, etc.), plus he played more games so you get more out of him.  he also was better awarded those seasons finishing in the top 3 of MVP and winning his 2nd DPOY the first year and finishing 3rd the last full year in San An.  And that last year there, they easily could have won the title had Kawhi not gone down in game 1 of the WCF so I don't even know that you can say well he won the title this year so he was better this year.

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing when I was thinking about drafting Kawhi.

(1) 2019 - worst regular season of the 3 years but phenomenal postseason, incredible numbers and led a good but unexceptional team to a title
(2) 2017 - phenomenal year but season ending injury in postseason (which I have a hard time looking past)
(3) 2016 - his passing was his worst. Least success in terms of bringing his team together. Most iso-dependent and least team orientated on the offensive side of the floor.

I decided 2019 because of the postseason. That carried the most weight with me.

Also it was his 3rd year at near MVP level. That carried weight with me too. Even though we are looking at individual seasons, the years around point to whether something was a fluke or not. How sustainable it was. How well it would translate to other teams and different roles.

So I decided I didn't care about the 20 missed regular season games and rated his postseason leading a team a Championship over his two other postseasons by a large degree. I prefer to think of these guys as healthy (right or wrong).

But yeah, Kawhi's season were uneven.

That did give me pause when thinking about drafting him before deciding to go ahead with it if he were available in the 2nd round and deciding on the 2019 season as my pick.

I will choose the 2018-19 season, and while it's tempting to pick the other two seasons he won the DPOY, the 18-19 one truly stands out among the rest.

As you mentioned, the magical post season run was just too hard to ignore. 30 points a game in that run, doing it efficiently, and doing it anywhere from the floor. You get that Kawhi in the Playoffs, you have a shot at winning anything.

This is also the season where Kawhi ascended to a higher level. This was the year that he legitimately made a case of being the best player of the league, mainly because of his playoff run, and winning the title.

49% field goal percentage
38% from three on 5.5 attempts per game
88% free throws

61.9% true shooting percentage

And low turnover numbers.
Only 3.1 turnovers against 20.7 FGAs 9.0 FTAs and 3.9apg.

30.5ppg 9rpg with stellar defense with that offensive efficiency!

And led his team to the title. Jesus, what a playoff run that was.

......

That would have to rate pretty high up there on those All-Time playoff performances articles.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 12:37:17 PM by Who »

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #332 on: August 23, 2019, 12:18:34 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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You have to know something about Bird's era that the stats will only tell you if you go looking. Everything was run through PGs. Assists were racked up almost exclusively by PGs, who generally were the smallest people on the floor.

Then Bird and Magic came in the league. Guys who should have been PFs, players who set up down low and played close to the basket, were now people who were the most creative, dynamic passers and movers of the ball. Straight from the first moment they entered the league, their offense and ability to create for others was the best in the league and at an all world level.

Big men being the league's best passers was unheard of. And not just bigs who could pass some and rack up some stats while in a team system, but creative and exciting passing that elevated the level of how basketball was played. They brought a form of showmanship to the game.

Bird was a big in those early years and the offense was run through Tiny because he was a star PG and that's what offenses did then, they ran through PGs. So for Bird to be a top 15 in the league in assists per game while essentially playing as a 3/4 big was unheard of. Once Tiny was gone, Bird took over the main facilitator role at SF because Fitch was gone too, so K.C. gave the team facillitating role to Bird.

Bird's passing stats don't tell the whole story of just how good a passing big man he was.

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #333 on: August 23, 2019, 12:25:45 PM »

Offline Somebody

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6. Reach. Magic’s offense was incredible-he led one of the greatest offensive dynasties (even better than Bird’s Celtics) if not the greatest in his prime. However, his ball dominance and only average defense doesn’t endear me to the idea of picking him at #6.
I'm interested in this ball dominance you think Magic had.  At his absolute peak he only had a usage of 26.3 and his career usage is only 22.3.  I suspect those are both the lowest of any player that has been drafted so far and any player that will likely be drafted in round 2 (and perhaps round 3 as well).  Those Lakers teams thrived on ball movement and fast breaks.  Yes, Magic got a lot of assists, but he absolutely moved the ball and did so with ease.  He was never a black hole or a ball stopper.  I've honestly never heard Magic described as ball dominant and am curious why you believe that was the case.
As Who said above, usage rate isn't the best stat to measure how much of the time a player has the ball in his hands. This is a much better statistic imo: http://www.backpicks.com/2017/10/16/offensive-load-and-adjusted-tov/, it measures a player's offensive load on a team level, which in the link shows Nash having the highest offensive load on those Suns teams despite his usage rate saying otherwise. From what I've seen of Magic he's quite similar in this regard, and in his earlier years it was even slightly detrimental to his teams at times (his adjusted TO rate was ranked in the fifth percentile in the 1984 season), with his teammates which are similar in terms of level when compared to the players we'll likely draft in this game ramping up their numbers and even efficiency when he was out (small sample size, but it does show a young Magic not hitting his offensive peak yet). His prime years were one of the best offensive stretches though, with a claim to be the greatest with his combination of volume, efficiency and creation.
gotta watch the games.  Magic, definitely turned it over a fair amount, but he really wasn't ball dominant.  Those Lakers teams moved the ball a lot.  Ran on fast break a lot.  Outside of Denver, the Lakers were the highest scoring team in the league throughout much of the 80's (led the league a couple of times).  Despite having such a prolific offense, they were also generally better than the league average in opponents ppg.  In other words, they were a prolific offense, but didn't get overwhelmed defensively.  Now obviously Kareem and their other great defenders helped make up some for Magic's less than stellar defense, but a very large part of the Lakers success was just how good Magic was offensively and how disruptive his size was defensively.  Magic absolutely knew how to effectively use his massive size advantage on both ends of the floor.
Reminder that I said rate and not raw turnovers. Magic had a very high adjusted turnover rate until he hit his stride, and when he did hit his stride he ramped up his offensive load even more, which was good since his offensive peak was almost unmatched. Magic did distribute the ball a lot, but to distribute the ball like that you usually have the ball in your hands a lot as well, and to me it took away a bit from his teammates (eg. Kareem, Worthy) who were great creators themselves. Not too high on that when you might select some high usage scorers later on in the draft, especially when Magic isn't really scalable in off ball situations. Certainly one of the most unique skillsets of all time that led to transcendent floor raising on offense though. As for his defense he was slightly above average in his early days, and his prime had him as an average defender. Certainly good enough to get by against NBA playoff teams, but not too sure if it'll work against teams made up of all timers.
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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #334 on: August 23, 2019, 12:31:30 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Alright....it's close enough to 12:30.

ROUND 2 NOW OPEN

Quick note, I have draftboards for Celtics Fan 508, Somebody and gouki. I will give you guys until a minute or two before your deadline and if you don't select I will make the selection off what you gave me. If you are going to be here just let me know with a post here.

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #335 on: August 23, 2019, 12:31:50 PM »

Offline action781

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Lets do this!
2020 CelticsStrong All-2000s Draft -- Utah Jazz
 
Finals Starters:  Jason Kidd - Reggie Miller - PJ Tucker - Al Horford - Shaq
Bench:  Rajon Rondo - Trae Young - Marcus Smart - Jaylen Brown -  Peja Stojakovic - Jamal Mashburn - Carlos Boozer - Tristan Thompson - Mehmet Okur

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #336 on: August 23, 2019, 12:33:38 PM »

Offline Somebody

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4. Slight reach. Bird has a top 5 offensive peak but it didn’t match with his best defensive seasons in 80-84. Not sure if all time offense and above average defense (not elite or great) equals top 4.

Not sure how old you are Somebody, but this take makes me think you are fairly young and never got to see Bird.

Bird was all-time great offensively, from his sophomore season on and was a great team defender up until he got hurt in 1988. His All-Defense 2nd team selections were based not on Bird's individual defense but how, in an era of illegal defense calls and straight man to man defense, he was able to funnel his man into help, play passing lanes off ball, double team hard at the right time and help from the weak side. This was especially important as teams during that time used to love sticking one man on one side of the floor and four men on the other and let the player iso. Helping at the right time was huge.

Bird could score in an elite manner from everywhere. And he was already playing great defense in a team oriented style, something done way more after the defensive rule changes. His passing was better than LeBron's as was his rebounding.

Then you have his intangibles. He was as clutch as there was in this league ever. He was an incredible team leader that commanded respect. He made everyone who played with him better, something a lot of current stars don't really do. And he could blend styles of play like no other.

Bird was far from a reach at 4.
I'm going to be starting college this fall so you got me lol. Bird was not all-time great offensively starting from his sophomore season-from what I've seen and read he was a bit too rash in decision making and took a bit too many tough shots, which hampered his efficiency. His offensive tendencies to shoot outside and finish with crafty moves also limited his free throw attempts, which spike efficiency, and Bird's lack of them hurts him relative to other great scorers. He became all time great offensively from the 84-85 season by cleaning up his shot selection and improving his shot making, but unfortunately wasn't the same defensive savant by then. Really think he's a stretch to be picked at #4, just my opinion.

You are viewing only Bird's scoring here when rating his overall offense. Add the scoring and passing together and you have one of the best offensive player ever.

Right from day one.


...............

* 3 straight MVPs 84-86
* Runner up for MVP 81-83
* Legit MVP candidate as a rookie (finished 4th, was overlooked at 4 and should have been either 1 or 2 next to Kareem)
Then 3rd in 87 and 2nd again in 88.


That is an incredible run of individual dominance over his first 9 years. 3 times the best. 4 times second best. Once 3rd and once 4th (and he was overlooked being as low as four) .... heck, the year Bird was 3rd in 1987 he should have finished 2nd ahead of MJ (MJ still to selfish at that point).
Scoring is very important lol. Bird wasn't miles ahead of the other all time offensive greats when it comes to passing to make up for his deficiencies in scoring, especially in his earlier days when he wasn't as good at making inefficient shots compared to his prime with no real way of ramping it up if he's cold (can't draw 10+ FTs like other offensive greats even if he has a bad game shooting wise). Does offense that's a rung below all time great combined with all-time creation skills push his offense in the early days to top 5 all time, where he's competing against amazing scoring/efficiency/creation profiles in the primes of Jordan/LeBron/Magic ,an unmatched combination of volume and high efficiency scoring in 2000 Shaq, and finally the complete package of our very own prime Larry Bird? I'm talking about 81-84 Bird offensively, not 85-88 Bird.

Top 5 offensive peak ever ... now that is something that is going to require some thinking.

If using only season per player, I reckon Bird (81-84) would come pretty close to that. Maybe just outside the top 5.

Not sure how to rate him against Shaq. Bird did more to help his teammates and make them better offensively than Shaq did. Then there are two other guards along with Magic. MJ. Hmm ...

Tough question.
Not too sure about that, here's a comparison of his scoring plus creation with Magic and Jordan:

His seasons before his offensive peak lag quite a bit behind the peaks of Jordan and Magic, which probably doesn't put him close to top 5 lol. And 2000 Shaq was absolutely better than young Bird offensively, his scoring plus creation profile was absolutely insane when you factor in how efficient he was with so many touches.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #337 on: August 23, 2019, 12:34:38 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Alright....it's close enough to 12:30.

ROUND 2 NOW OPEN

Quick note, I have draftboards for Celtics Fan 508, Somebody and gouki. I will give you guys until a minute or two before your deadline and if you don't select I will make the selection off what you gave me. If you are going to be here just let me know with a post here.
I'll probably be here for 2(2), don't know about 2(4) though.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #338 on: August 23, 2019, 12:35:12 PM »

Offline Somebody

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It'll be interesting to see how younger people's team (like myself) will compare to some of the older folks and their team. It'll be cool to see the differences in team building philosophy.
What age range are you in? :o
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 2 underway, make your picks!!)
« Reply #339 on: August 23, 2019, 12:35:13 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I think round 2 is always interesting. It's like a window into what is to come as everyone should have a duo by the end of the round. Do those duos make sense? Will they be compatible. This is where the intangibles of team building start and I think this might be the most important round.

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #340 on: August 23, 2019, 12:37:09 PM »

Offline Somebody

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You have to know something about Bird's era that the stats will only tell you if you go looking. Everything was run through PGs. Assists were racked up almost exclusively by PGs, who generally were the smallest people on the floor.

Then Bird and Magic came in the league. Guys who should have been PFs, players who set up down low and played close to the basket, were now people who were the most creative, dynamic passers and movers of the ball. Straight from the first moment they entered the league, their offense and ability to create for others was the best in the league and at an all world level.

Big men being the league's best passers was unheard of. And not just bigs who could pass some and rack up some stats while in a team system, but creative and exciting passing that elevated the level of how basketball was played. They brought a form of showmanship to the game.

Bird was a big in those early years and the offense was run through Tiny because he was a star PG and that's what offenses did then, they ran through PGs. So for Bird to be a top 15 in the league in assists per game while essentially playing as a 3/4 big was unheard of. Once Tiny was gone, Bird took over the main facilitator role at SF because Fitch was gone too, so K.C. gave the team facillitating role to Bird.

Bird's passing stats don't tell the whole story of just how good a passing big man he was.
That was why I said his passing was All-Time level lol. He created openings with his offense and exploited them with his passing at an amazing rate, instead of hunting for "Rondo assists".
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #341 on: August 23, 2019, 12:37:12 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Alright....it's close enough to 12:30.

ROUND 2 NOW OPEN

Quick note, I have draftboards for Celtics Fan 508, Somebody and gouki. I will give you guys until a minute or two before your deadline and if you don't select I will make the selection off what you gave me. If you are going to be here just let me know with a post here.
I'll probably be here for 2(2), don't know about 2(4) though.
Awesome. I know it's late there so if you nod off I will have your back

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 2 underway, make your picks!!)
« Reply #342 on: August 23, 2019, 12:37:24 PM »

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I think round 2 is always interesting. It's like a window into what is to come as everyone should have a duo by the end of the round. Do those duos make sense? Will they be compatible. This is where the intangibles of team building start and I think this might be the most important round.

I agree that this is the most important round. Kinda hard to mess up round 1, you’re getting a transcendent superstar no matter what. Now it’s about building a team and getting it to fit around that top guy.
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SF: Peja Stojakovic/ Gerald Wallace/ Toni Kukoc
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C: Dwight Howard/ Tyson Chandler

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #343 on: August 23, 2019, 12:37:57 PM »

Offline Silky

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4. Slight reach. Bird has a top 5 offensive peak but it didn’t match with his best defensive seasons in 80-84. Not sure if all time offense and above average defense (not elite or great) equals top 4.

Not sure how old you are Somebody, but this take makes me think you are fairly young and never got to see Bird.

Bird was all-time great offensively, from his sophomore season on and was a great team defender up until he got hurt in 1988. His All-Defense 2nd team selections were based not on Bird's individual defense but how, in an era of illegal defense calls and straight man to man defense, he was able to funnel his man into help, play passing lanes off ball, double team hard at the right time and help from the weak side. This was especially important as teams during that time used to love sticking one man on one side of the floor and four men on the other and let the player iso. Helping at the right time was huge.

Bird could score in an elite manner from everywhere. And he was already playing great defense in a team oriented style, something done way more after the defensive rule changes. His passing was better than LeBron's as was his rebounding.

Then you have his intangibles. He was as clutch as there was in this league ever. He was an incredible team leader that commanded respect. He made everyone who played with him better, something a lot of current stars don't really do. And he could blend styles of play like no other.

Bird was far from a reach at 4.
I'm going to be starting college this fall so you got me lol. Bird was not all-time great offensively starting from his sophomore season-from what I've seen and read he was a bit too rash in decision making and took a bit too many tough shots, which hampered his efficiency. His offensive tendencies to shoot outside and finish with crafty moves also limited his free throw attempts, which spike efficiency, and Bird's lack of them hurts him relative to other great scorers. He became all time great offensively from the 84-85 season by cleaning up his shot selection and improving his shot making, but unfortunately wasn't the same defensive savant by then. Really think he's a stretch to be picked at #4, just my opinion.

You are viewing only Bird's scoring here when rating his overall offense. Add the scoring and passing together and you have one of the best offensive player ever.

Right from day one.


...............

* 3 straight MVPs 84-86
* Runner up for MVP 81-83
* Legit MVP candidate as a rookie (finished 4th, was overlooked at 4 and should have been either 1 or 2 next to Kareem)
Then 3rd in 87 and 2nd again in 88.


That is an incredible run of individual dominance over his first 9 years. 3 times the best. 4 times second best. Once 3rd and once 4th (and he was overlooked being as low as four) .... heck, the year Bird was 3rd in 1987 he should have finished 2nd ahead of MJ (MJ still to selfish at that point).
Scoring is very important lol. Bird wasn't miles ahead of the other all time offensive greats when it comes to passing to make up for his deficiencies in scoring, especially in his earlier days when he wasn't as good at making inefficient shots compared to his prime with no real way of ramping it up if he's cold (can't draw 10+ FTs like other offensive greats even if he has a bad game shooting wise). Does offense that's a rung below all time great combined with all-time creation skills push his offense in the early days to top 5 all time, where he's competing against amazing scoring/efficiency/creation profiles in the primes of Jordan/LeBron/Magic ,an unmatched combination of volume and high efficiency scoring in 2000 Shaq, and finally the complete package of our very own prime Larry Bird? I'm talking about 81-84 Bird offensively, not 85-88 Bird.

Top 5 offensive peak ever ... now that is something that is going to require some thinking.

If using only season per player, I reckon Bird (81-84) would come pretty close to that. Maybe just outside the top 5.

Not sure how to rate him against Shaq. Bird did more to help his teammates and make them better offensively than Shaq did. Then there are two other guards along with Magic. MJ. Hmm ...

Tough question.
Not too sure about that, here's a comparison of his scoring plus creation with Magic and Jordan:

His seasons before his offensive peak lag quite a bit behind the peaks of Jordan and Magic, which probably doesn't put him close to top 5 lol. And 2000 Shaq was absolutely better than young Bird offensively, his scoring plus creation profile was absolutely insane when you factor in how efficient he was with so many touches.

Know who was better than young shaq offensively?

and defensively?

Hakeem

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 2 underway, make your picks!!)
« Reply #344 on: August 23, 2019, 12:38:32 PM »

Offline Silky

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I dont pick for 27 picks. lol

but I have 57 players I am able to use, and some of my top choices will be there for me when I do pick.

Just have to wait a painstakingly long time to get there