Value of Orlando’s 6th pick this year vs. our Sacto pick

[smokeablount]

So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?

If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?

[mqtcelticsfan]

So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?

If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?

Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.

[gouki88]

So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?

If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?

Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.

I agree that there needs to be more added, but adding Rozier, another young guy (presumably Yabu) and the MEM pick is a pretty big swing the other way

[mqtcelticsfan]

So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?

If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?

Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.

I agree that there needs to be more added, but adding Rozier, another young guy (presumably Yabu) and the MEM pick is a pretty big swing the other way

Which is why I don't think a deal would happen. Orlando isn't going to give up the 6th pick for a couple of assets that could backfire spectacularly. Rozier and the Sacramento pick is probably reasonable enough in a vacuum, but in a year Orlando could be looking at either losing/overpaying Rozier and a Kings pick below 6 in a weaker draft. Adding just a player like Yabu or Semi isn't going to mitigate that enough, so I'd think the Memphis pick would be a requirement. My main point is that a deal is very unlikely.

I also think it'd be crazy for Orlando to trade out of number 6 when they have a chance to potentially pair Isaac with a guy like Bamba or Jackson.

[rondofan1255]

It’s the annoying Top 1 protection that devalues the pick the most.

[byennie]

So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?

If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?

Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.

I agree that there needs to be more added, but adding Rozier, another young guy (presumably Yabu) and the MEM pick is a pretty big swing the other way

Which is why I don't think a deal would happen. Orlando isn't going to give up the 6th pick for a couple of assets that could backfire spectacularly. Rozier and the Sacramento pick is probably reasonable enough in a vacuum, but in a year Orlando could be looking at either losing/overpaying Rozier and a Kings pick below 6 in a weaker draft. Adding just a player like Yabu or Semi isn't going to mitigate that enough, so I'd think the Memphis pick would be a requirement. My main point is that a deal is very unlikely.

I also think it'd be crazy for Orlando to trade out of number 6 when they have a chance to potentially pair Isaac with a guy like Bamba or Jackson.

Well sure, but they could also get a long term starting PG and the #2 pick. It all depends on how they rate each of these pieces.

Confounding things is that the pick odds are much flatter next year. Assuming SAC will be a bottom-6 team, there's something like:

10-14% chance of #1 (oops)
80%+ chance it's #2-#6.

So for projection purposes, I think it's fair to value it around #5. I really don't see how a guy like Bamba is clearly better than a future #5 pick, let alone with Rozier thrown in.

[vjcsmoke]

The #6 pick might get you a Marcus Smart if you're lucky.  I would NOT go all in and give up a lot of assets for that pick.

[footey]

Seems like we got addicted to so many high draft picks these last couple of years. Lol.

Don’t see the need to try to trade into the lottery. Could see consolidating to trade up and grab someone if he is undervalued. But Danny should otherwise take a chill pill.

[KGs Knee]

The #6 pick might get you a Marcus Smart if you're lucky.  I would NOT go all in and give up a lot of assets for that pick.

There have been plenty of stars drafted later than the #6 pick (Dirk #9 / Pierce #10). Even in just this most recent draft Markkanen (#7) and Mitchell (#13) both standout as obvious future stars.

This doesn't mean that someone from this draft absolutely will be that good, but you can't say it's impossible either.

[Erik]

It's an interesting situation. The sac pick is more valuable to us because of cap implications, but the magic pick is more valuable to the magic because there's more talent this year and they need people asap. This means its unlikely that a deal can be reached.

[Jvalin]

The #6 pick might get you a Marcus Smart if you're lucky.  I would NOT go all in and give up a lot of assets for that pick.

There have been plenty of stars drafted later than the #6 pick (Dirk #9 / Pierce #10). Even in just this most recent draft Markkanen (#7) and Mitchell (#13) both standout as obvious future stars.

This doesn't mean that someone from this draft absolutely will be that good, but you can't say it's impossible either.

Not to mention, Larry Legend was drafted at #6.

[emajic1]

Rozier, #27 (our 2018 1st), Sac 2019 1st, and a future 2nd/Yabusele if needed for Orlando #6. 

I think it's a overpay in isolation, but a good time to strike, given the Rozier RFA next year and playing time concerns.  I will miss Terry, but I think this draft is a unique opportunity to consolidate, and add another blue-chip on a rookie contract.  (Porter Jr, Bamba)  We cannot roster all of the 2019 picks. 

In any event, I'm tremendously enjoying this year's run. 

[nickagneta]

The 6th pick this year about guarantees Orlando will end up with a kid that could have superstar potential. The Sacramento pick has a real possibility of ending up #1 which would then mean Orlando gets Philly's pick somewhere in the 20's. Also, next year's talent at the top isn't nearly as good or as deep as this year's. Why would a bad team trade an almost sure thing for a pick that is most likely going to be worse and could end up in the 20s?

Also, Orlando needs talent to rebuild now. Putting off getting the chance at elite talent now to get it later only punts the development cycle down a year.

Just see zero potential of this ever happening unless the Orlando GM just doesn't like being employed.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

This only happens if Rozier is involved I think, but then that would likely be too much to give up for the 6th pick in a 3 player draft (Doncic, Ayton, Bagley)

[Erik]

I think we’re missing a key point here... we’d rather draft next year. They’d rather draft this year. Basically any trades in which we give our sac pick for a pick in this draft make 0 sense for us. Why give any asset (Orlando will want it) to get a pick that we value less? This goes for all trades into this draft. It has to be a sitatuon where were not giving up sac19, which no team will agree to unless were giving up a premium asset (not Rozier... think Jaylen level premium). Bottom line, we’re not trading into this draft. All of these threads do not make sense.