What is the main thing that keeps you up at night about the C's playoff chances?

[aefgogreen]

We haven't been great agains the top teams (Denver, OKC, Minnesota, LaC, Milwuakee) when they've been at full strength.  In general, it seems like we've benefited a lot from teams being injured.

[G-Bones]

Tatum playing hero ball on the last possession

[ozgod]

I’m not so worried about your graphic. That wins by 4 to 10 points is pretty sizable. That says to me that there must be several games that were close that they were able to put out of reach, ie get past a one possession game. What does the data look like if you go 1 to 4 points? Tho I realize 1 to 3 makes more sense as a 1 possession game type tight situation.

To your question, it’s gotta be health. The games will get more physical.

In the east we should beat anyone in our bracket. I don’t care how that shakes out. This team is well focused and on a mission. I believe!

I thought about breaking it up to begin with but as you say I decided to use 3 pts as a cutoff to make it a one possession game. But here's the data if you split the 4-10 point margins into 4-6 and 7-10, both for wins and losses:



So that's 13 wins and 11 losses in games decided by 2 possessions or less. Obviously we can keep on slicing and dicing the data until it gets favorable but the general trend is that we win one of every two games that are tightly contested, at least within 2 possessions or less. Not the greatest record - I'm less worried about the mediocre record, and more about the fact that we've only had 24 games that were considered to be close. We've been all-conquering so often that I worry they're not tempered enough to make the right reads and judgments in those situations.

It's why I feel that Joe kept on letting them play during those situations in the regular season, even though everyone in the game threads was screaming for him to call timeout - because we haven't had many of those situations this year and he wanted them to experience it.

Of course it's not like these guys are novices...they've been to the ECF multiple times, they've been to the Finals once, it's not like this season is the be-all end-all indicator of how they will handle pressure. but on the evidence of this year, with this set of players at least, I think they need to show me more before I can be confident they can grind out a win in a tight game if they had to.

[Moranis]

If Boston was a young team I'd worry a lot more about the lack of close games. But Boston has been there done that so many times I'm not worried about that at all.  I mean Porzingis is the least experienced post season player in the rotation.  We will be fine.

[celticsclay]

For me biggest is definitely Joe being outcoached/showing his inexperience. I do think that someone like Nick Nurse is not just a better coach (Joe could be like him someday), but also has so much more experience game planning in playoffs playing teams over and over again. The same would be true of Spoelstra, though I don't think that advantage can overcome our talent advantage against them whereas Philly it is closer. I am not sure how much of an edge if any the Bucks would have as Doc Rivers has never shown great in series or in game adjustments imo. If we made it that far, it would also be a disadvantage against Nuggets or Suns while teams like the Thunder or Wolves it would perhaps be more similar.

As others have mentioned tie game or down one point I also think other teams may have an advantage.

[angryguy77]

They go cold from 3 and we get iso possession while dribbling out the clock.

And joe getting out coached.

[SHAQATTACK]

Nightmares about Zinger getting a knee injury ….cold sweat that o e.

[mobilija]

I’m not so worried about your graphic. That wins by 4 to 10 points is pretty sizable. That says to me that there must be several games that were close that they were able to put out of reach, ie get past a one possession game. What does the data look like if you go 1 to 4 points? Tho I realize 1 to 3 makes more sense as a 1 possession game type tight situation.

To your question, it’s gotta be health. The games will get more physical.

In the east we should beat anyone in our bracket. I don’t care how that shakes out. This team is well focused and on a mission. I believe!

I thought about breaking it up to begin with but as you say I decided to use 3 pts as a cutoff to make it a one possession game. But here's the data if you split the 4-10 point margins into 4-6 and 7-10, both for wins and losses:



So that's 13 wins and 11 losses in games decided by 2 possessions or less. Obviously we can keep on slicing and dicing the data until it gets favorable but the general trend is that we win one of every two games that are tightly contested, at least within 2 possessions or less. Not the greatest record - I'm less worried about the mediocre record, and more about the fact that we've only had 24 games that were considered to be close. We've been all-conquering so often that I worry they're not tempered enough to make the right reads and judgments in those situations.

It's why I feel that Joe kept on letting them play during those situations in the regular season, even though everyone in the game threads was screaming for him to call timeout - because we haven't had many of those situations this year and he wanted them to experience it.

Of course it's not like these guys are novices...they've been to the ECF multiple times, they've been to the Finals once, it's not like this season is the be-all end-all indicator of how they will handle pressure. but on the evidence of this year, with this set of players at least, I think they need to show me more before I can be confident they can grind out a win in a tight game if they had to.

Nice Work. TP.

I get ur concern that we’ve been in less games that involve high pressure end of game of moments. However, they have shown this year that at other times during games they don’t panic when the other team goes on runs. They seem to chug along nicely and keep working their sets when the other team gains momentum. Often a lead dwindles to 3 points and we push it back to 10, or even loose a lead and boom right back to up 5. Granted, that’s in the game flow and the games end is a different intensity. Regardless it’s a positive and I find it encouraging.

[Phantom255x]

1. Health

2. Rebounding could be better, can't be giving up too many 2nd chance points to some of the better teams

3. Denver Nuggets

4. One minute left in the game, either up 3 or down 3 (basically 1-2 possessions), how does the offense do? What's the playcall, is it just Tatum/Brown Isos? Does Mazzulla use the timeouts wisely. Can the Jays make the "right decisions". That's still gonna be something to monitor. Whether we like it or not there will be a few games like this, they won't blow out every team every game

Ultimately, the 4th point is probably my "main thing". Some of the teams in history who finally got "over the hump" had to actually execute and prove themselves in those final moments of games. Lebron did with Miami after 2011. The exact same thing for Denver last season, and Jokic + that squad got over the hump. Now it's the Jays' turn.

[Neurotic Guy]

Nothing is keeping me up at night - other than my typical neurotic thoughts.  Nothing Celtics related… except maybe that I can’t wait for the playoffs. It’s not that I think the Cs will cruise, I don’t. But I do have some belief that this team is capable of kicking it up in the playoffs, unleashing their talent, and I’m really looking forward to it. May not happen but that’s where my head is - not on what can go wrong.

[SCeltic34]

This first half against the Bucks is what will keep me up at night.  We're all very well aware of "live by the 3, die by the 3" by now.  We're going to have games where we lose simply because the 3's aren't falling.  Milwaukee's defense isn't good, but we only mustered 43 points.

Another concern is Joe's ability to adjust in-game.  I think he'll have decent pre-game plans, but his ability to manage the game effectively in the playoffs is a big question mark.

Last major concern is slow 4th quarter offense.  We look terrible when we play iso ball in crunch time.  Predictable, deliberate offense.

[tenn_smoothie]

You really have to ask ?

[SHAQATTACK]

Lousy 7-11 Bean Burritos

[SparzWizard]

1. Health

2. Rebounding could be better, can't be giving up too many 2nd chance points to some of the better teams

3. Denver Nuggets

4. One minute left in the game, either up 3 or down 3 (basically 1-2 possessions), how does the offense do? What's the playcall, is it just Tatum/Brown Isos? Does Mazzulla use the timeouts wisely. Can the Jays make the "right decisions". That's still gonna be something to monitor. Whether we like it or not there will be a few games like this, they won't blow out every team every game

Ultimately, the 4th point is probably my "main thing". Some of the teams in history who finally got "over the hump" had to actually execute and prove themselves in those final moments of games. Lebron did with Miami after 2011. The exact same thing for Denver last season, and Jokic + that squad got over the hump. Now it's the Jays' turn.

#1. Need to rest them more/manage minutes with them.

#2. Gotta have bigs to clog the paint, learn to box out.

#3. Suns or Clippers can handle 'em.

#4. Yeah that's been the story since Tatum/Brown got drafted or a little after. Jays gotta learn to close it out and play with high BBIQ.

[ozgod]

You really have to ask ?

My first sentence was for you