Yesterday the Athletic put out an article on 8 second round sleeper prospects, all of which are intriguing for the Celtics. I clicked on it looking for info on Adama Sanogo and Julian Strawther but came away with one of my new favorite sleeper prospects in the draft Azuolas Tubelis - 6'11 Junior out of Arizona. Here is the writeup on Tubelis.
For about six weeks during the middle of last season, Tubelis was the best player in college basketball. Between Dec. 22 and Feb. 9, he averaged 22.1 points over a 13-game stretch, to go along with 10.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.5 steals. He shot 56.6 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from 3-point range. An ankle injury slowed him down just a little the rest of the way, but Tubelis scored 20 or more points in four of his last six games, proving enough to lead him to enter the draft as a junior.
The question for Tubelis will be on defense, particularly with respect to his ability to switch on smaller players away from the basket. That’s why there’s a good chance he won’t even get drafted next Thursday. That would be a mistake. By excelling in one of the country’s fastest programs over the last three years, Tubelis has showed that he can cover a lot of ground on a basketball court, and his Lithuanian pedigree has bestowed him with a high basketball IQ. There’s a reason European players tend to be so successful in today’s NBA, and I fully expect Tubelis to fall into that pattern. With his size, skill and quick mind, he has the potential to be an effective pro for a long time.
Tubelis is a highly productive junior out Lithuania and given the track record of Euro Bigs in the league today I think that odds of getting a quality rotation player in the second half might be too good to pass up. Arizona is the program that produced Lauri Markanen, they play an NBA style with a fast pace.
I am still high on Jordan Walsh and would be fine with Strawther or Sonogo, but I think Tubelis might have the highest upside of the bunch.
Azuolas Tubelis is a player I have struggled to rank. Mid college bball season I have him projected as a late first or high second but that was when I assumed he was bigger then he ultimately measured. At 6'8.75" 235lbs with a 6'11" wingspan he is shorter, lighter, and not as long as I had assumed. This worries me on the defensive end. As a undersized below the rim center I struggle to find value for a player who will likely struggle defensively. Had he measured as a true 7' with a bigger frame he could project as a rim protector.
The reasons why I was so high on Tubelis and honestly this post has me debating moving him up on my board (currently 56) is his production and the parallels he has to Sabonis. Along with college production he was also highly productive at every level of FIBA youth tourneys.
The first guy I thought of after readin this was Mo Wagner. Is Tubelis the next Mo Wagner?
The next was Sengun. How big is Sengun? The Rockets claim he is 6-11 but it looks like they put up the heights of nearly every player on their roster by 1-2 inches this summer. So I am not sure I believe them about any of their new height listings. Is Sengun 6-9 or 6-10 do you think?
Tubelis is the same height as Bam. Bam was also 6-8.75 barefoot. Does not have Bam's wingspan (7-2) or athleticism though.
I have a couple of loose "rules" I use when I rank/project for the draft. One of these is for traditional bigs how will they defend the P&R in high leverage situation IE end of the game or in the playoffs.
Bam is a great example of the elite end of what I call switching big who also have drop big verticality (meaning they can defend in drop coverage). Its a very short list of bigs who I see as both switch and drop bigs, including Bam, Rob, AD, Giannis, Chet (in theory). It was interesting to look back at prospects combined standing reach and vertical leap. This gives us the peak of a players reach. Bam was 12.2'. For comparison at the draft combine Dwight Howard was 12.25', Horford was 11.8', Jeff Green 11.75' and Aaron Gordon was 12'. I only cherry picked a few players to get an idea of how athletic prospects compare to current athletic players. The best I found was Jerricho Sims 12.54'.
For comparison
Tubelis was 11.54'
Sanogo 11.62'
Timme 11.58'
L Miller 12'
TJD 11.875'
J Phillips 12.08'
GG Jackson 11.9'
For Tubelis, Sabogo, and Timme these numbers indicate that they will not have the verticallity to work as drop bigs so the next question is can they move their feet well enough to switch? I give Tubelis and Timme a no for that with Sanogo being a maybe.
This is why I have grown so high on Leonard Miller, he will need to get stronger but maybe the rare player who can provide both drop and switching P&R coverage.