2013 CB Draft: Eastern Semi Finals: New York(2) vs Cleveland(3)

[indeedproceed]

Yeah but Ronaldo is wrong.

[pearljammer10]

Hello from air and AB's room!

A few pieces of defense of the Cavs here, while I'm still unpacking...

1. Our versatility defensively will be an asset in this series. The Knicks have elite scorers at every position except PG, and we have elite defenders at every position (except PG ). Coach Hollins will have the versatility to increase Gerald Wallace's minutes - or even start him - to limit Jeff Green. If Z.Bo becomes a force off the bench, Hollins can quickly sub out Garnett in the first quarter so that his minutes line up with Z.Bo's. We have a ton of flexibility defensively.

2. Once again, we have more desire and know-how to win than the Knicks. KG - as arguably the smartest player in this entire series - will lead the Cavs to victory on more than one occasion. The Knicks, as balanced at they are with their starting lineup and bench, are extremely inexperienced, and this will hurt them.

3. Ty Lawson will go off in this series. Rubio's defense has always been weak, and Lawson's quickness will be hard for him to handle. I'm expecting around 20 ppg in this series from Ty, maybe more.


I have to get back to unpacking. Sorry I can't be more present during this round, but I'll leave you one last thought courtesy of my buddy ron...

In another note I definitely see Cleveland beating New York/Boston.

But this just isn't true...At all.

Rubio was second in steals last season with 2.4 per game. And it really wasn't due to gambling much. According to stats when Rubio is on the floor, his team gives up less points per possession than when he is on the floor.

Here is a quote from Rick Adelman, who is one of the leagues best.

For all that he provided at that end, they might miss his defense more. "I think we're really going to miss him there because he's really good at keeping his guy in front of him," Wolves coach Rick Adelman said. "That's probably the biggest thing."

Other Rubio quotes and links:
Here from ESPN:
"it looks right now like Rubio is already a difference-maker defending NBA guards, and that his impact on defense rivals all that stuff he's doing at the other end."

"You also might notice a lot of opposing guards simply coughing up balls against Minnesota. If you rewind and watch again, you'll notice a lot of those were poked free by Rubio, even if he is not credited with all those steals."

"the Timberwolves' have added a defender who makes a difference, and he happens to be the most exciting young offensive player in the NBA."
 

"Rubio is a fantastic help defender; arguably the best in the league from the backcourt."
http://fansided.com/2013/03/26/ricky-rubio-defensive-wizard/

There is NO WAY Lawson goes off. He is being guarded by a well well above average defender in Rubio and when Rubio takes a break he will be guarded by an even better defender in Hinrich.



I dont see why the Knicks are getting such a bad wrap defensively. The Cavs have a good defensive squad (KG, Wallace, and Allen) but the Knicks have Rubio, Green, Hinirch, Garcia, Sanders (possible DPOY candidate), and Lopez (and his 2+ blocks per game). The Cavs will be able to slow the Knicks offense down but who puts points on the board, especailly when the Knicks defense is perfectly adequate to stopping any team.

The stats dont lie ladies and gentlemen (mostly gentle) numbers show in head to head matchups Lopez, ZBo, and Sanders especially all out played KG in head to head match ups and he is now a year older.

Also shows that Martin can handle Allen at an above average rate or at least consistent numbers.

Green will be able to handle Wallace and Butler on defense and wont see much of a downgrade on the offensive end.

Downlow the Knicks have a huge advantage. Even if the Cavs slow the Knicks down it won't be enough to put points on the board.

Like I said. The evidence is there to support a win for the Knicks.

[McHales Pits]

Tough matchup, but leaning Cleveland in 7. They have the front court to stop New York's biggest strength...the perimeter defense to stop New York's wings and Lawson gets the edge over Rubio in my opinion. My only worry is if they will score enough consistently to win this...

[pearljammer10]

Tough matchup, but leaning Cleveland in 7. They have the front court to stop New York's biggest strength...the perimeter defense to stop New York's wings and Lawson gets the edge over Rubio in my opinion. My only worry is if they will score enough consistently to win this...

Check out my rebuttals above. Plenty of evidence to show that the Knicks get the nod. Horford and KG at this point in his career can't contain ZBo, Lopez and Sanders. KG looses the head to head versus each one of them and there is no one legit to back him up and defend this squad.

[Roy H.]

Tough matchup, but leaning Cleveland in 7. They have the front court to stop New York's biggest strength...the perimeter defense to stop New York's wings and Lawson gets the edge over Rubio in my opinion. My only worry is if they will score enough consistently to win this...

Check out my rebuttals above. Plenty of evidence to show that the Knicks get the nod. Horford and KG at this point in his career can't contain ZBo, Lopez and Sanders. KG looses the head to head versus each one of them and there is no one legit to back him up and defend this squad.

What about allegations that Randolph is declining?

He averaged around 15 points per game last year, and less than 12 the year before.  In the playoffs, he was terrible against the Spurs, shooting less than 36% in every game.

KG has declined, but based upon the numbers, he's a more prolific scorer than Randolph on a per-minute basis and in terms of his efficiency. 

Can you team win if Randolph is contributing at his recent, declined pace?

[indeedproceed]

Cool story: Brook Lopez in his career shoots 52% against Kevin Garnett, above his career average.

[airbelinelli]

And when matched up against Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson averages 22.5 on .708 shooting while Rubio has 13.5 ppg on .360

[nickagneta]

Cool story: Brook Lopez in his career shoots 52% against Kevin Garnett, above his career average.

Here's another cool story. In the stats you are quoting, clearly half those games, KG didn't guard Lopez because he was playing PF and Perk or Shaq or JO were covering Lopez.

In 6 of 7 games that KG has played center vs Lopez and guarded him primarily, Lopez was held to 47% shooting. The other Lopez went 11 for 14.

Kind of tells me Lopez might shine offensively one game out of 7 against KG but otherwise, he would struggle.

[Fafnir]

Cool story: Brook Lopez in his career shoots 52% against Kevin Garnett, above his career average.

Here's another cool story. In the stats you are quoting, clearly half those games, KG didn't guard Lopez because he was playing PF and Perk or Shaq or JO were covering Lopez.

In 6 of 7 games that KG has played center vs Lopez and guarded him primarily, Lopez was held to 47% shooting. The other Lopez went 11 for 14.

Kind of tells me Lopez might shine offensively one game out of 7 against KG but otherwise, he would struggle.

What was his TS% Nick? PPG?

Because looking at the game log Lopez got to the line 6.6 times a game and he shoots well from there. I only saw 5 games where KG was at C too, though I might be missing something with how I sorted it via date.

I get something around 20 PPG and that includes a clunker where Lopez played little due to foul trouble and only scored 9 points.

So 4 out of 5 games Lopez did well against KG (these are the 5 most recent games)

[pearljammer10]

Tough matchup, but leaning Cleveland in 7. They have the front court to stop New York's biggest strength...the perimeter defense to stop New York's wings and Lawson gets the edge over Rubio in my opinion. My only worry is if they will score enough consistently to win this...

Check out my rebuttals above. Plenty of evidence to show that the Knicks get the nod. Horford and KG at this point in his career can't contain ZBo, Lopez and Sanders. KG looses the head to head versus each one of them and there is no one legit to back him up and defend this squad.

What about allegations that Randolph is declining?

He averaged around 15 points per game last year, and less than 12 the year before.  In the playoffs, he was terrible against the Spurs, shooting less than 36% in every game.

KG has declined, but based upon the numbers, he's a more prolific scorer than Randolph on a per-minute basis and in terms of his efficiency. 

Can you team win if Randolph is contributing at his recent, declined pace?

Yes. Even though Randolph is "declining" in some folks eyes, I just think he has matured and he is still an offensive weapon when needed. Randolph is on a contending Western team with many weapons. Randolph's scoring misght have declined 5 points a game but he is also taking 3+ shots LESS a game. Meaning he is playing a more mature role, sharing the rock, and doing what it takes to win.

Also with Green, Lopez, and Williams all on the offensive upside, and also having Martin, Frye, Hinrich, Rubio, Sanders and Garcia as role playing offensive scorers the pressure is off Randolph to carry the team and he can be free of that pressure offensively.

[pearljammer10]

Cool story: Brook Lopez in his career shoots 52% against Kevin Garnett, above his career average.

Here's another cool story. In the stats you are quoting, clearly half those games, KG didn't guard Lopez because he was playing PF and Perk or Shaq or JO were covering Lopez.

In 6 of 7 games that KG has played center vs Lopez and guarded him primarily, Lopez was held to 47% shooting. The other Lopez went 11 for 14.

Kind of tells me Lopez might shine offensively one game out of 7 against KG but otherwise, he would struggle.

What was his TS% Nick? PPG?

Because looking at the game log Lopez got to the line 6.6 times a game and he shoots well from there. I only saw 5 games where KG was at C too, though I might be missing something with how I sorted it via date.

I get something around 20 PPG and that includes a clunker where Lopez played little due to foul trouble and only scored 9 points.

So 4 out of 5 games Lopez did well against KG (these are the 5 most recent games)

Like I stated earlier, with provided stats, Lopez has outplayed KG in their most recent meetings. With another year of KG decline and another year of Lopez incline, Lopez should continue his success against KG.

[KGs Knee]

Cool story: Brook Lopez in his career shoots 52% against Kevin Garnett, above his career average.

Here's another cool story. In the stats you are quoting, clearly half those games, KG didn't guard Lopez because he was playing PF and Perk or Shaq or JO were covering Lopez.

In 6 of 7 games that KG has played center vs Lopez and guarded him primarily, Lopez was held to 47% shooting. The other Lopez went 11 for 14.

Kind of tells me Lopez might shine offensively one game out of 7 against KG but otherwise, he would struggle.

What was his TS% Nick? PPG?

Because looking at the game log Lopez got to the line 6.6 times a game and he shoots well from there. I only saw 5 games where KG was at C too, though I might be missing something with how I sorted it via date.

I get something around 20 PPG and that includes a clunker where Lopez played little due to foul trouble and only scored 9 points.

So 4 out of 5 games Lopez did well against KG (these are the 5 most recent games)

Like I stated earlier, with provided stats, Lopez has outplayed KG in their most recent meetings. With another year of KG decline and another year of Lopez incline, Lopez should continue his success against KG.

I's suspect they both might just look that much better this year playing along side of each other (IRL).  Now that would have been a pair I would have liked to see in this game.

[AB_Celtic]

And when matched up against Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson averages 22.5 on .708 shooting while Rubio has 13.5 ppg on .360

I think this has been overlooked. If we are going to discuss head2head stats, this is an extremely significant comparison to look at, even if it was only a few games.

The bigs from these two teams match up fairly well and just about equal each other out (though of course I think Cleveland has the slight edge). Cleveland has excellent defenders on the wings to contain Martin and Green, but NYK seems to have no answer for Ty Lawson. This is the kind of matchup where he could put up numbers like he did against the Warriors last season. And that, combined with our tough defense and balanced scoring, will put Cleveland over the top.

Cleveland in 6.

[KGs Knee]

This series really is a total toss-up.  Still can't decide.  Probably gonna need to sleep on it (for a whopping 4 hours-yea for days of work and school!).

Can't decide if Cleveland's advantage at PG is enough to outweigh their disadvantage on the wing.  This seems like a series where Jeff Green could actually be a force.  I just don't buy Butler or Wallace as viable playoff performers anymore.

I wonder if NY has given much thought to the idea of allowing Hinrich to get a good share of minutes defending Lawson?  Seems he might be better suited than Rubio at this task.

[pearljammer10]

This series really is a total toss-up.  Still can't decide.  Probably gonna need to sleep on it (for a whopping 4 hours-yea for days of work and school!).

Can't decide if Cleveland's advantage at PG is enough to outweigh their disadvantage on the wing.  This seems like a series where Jeff Green could actually be a force.  I just don't buy Butler or Wallace as viable playoff performers anymore.

I wonder if NY has given much thought to the idea of allowing Hinrich to get a good share of minutes defending Lawson?  Seems he might be better suited than Rubio at this task.

And when matched up against Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson averages 22.5 on .708 shooting while Rubio has 13.5 ppg on .360

I think this has been overlooked. If we are going to discuss head2head stats, this is an extremely significant comparison to look at, even if it was only a few games.

The bigs from these two teams match up fairly well and just about equal each other out (though of course I think Cleveland has the slight edge). Cleveland has excellent defenders on the wings to contain Martin and Green, but NYK seems to have no answer for Ty Lawson. This is the kind of matchup where he could put up numbers like he did against the Warriors last season. And that, combined with our tough defense and balanced scoring, will put Cleveland over the top.

Cleveland in 6.

I really dont understand the Rubio bashing on defense? He is a well above average defender and Lawson isnt a superior talent such as Irving or Westbrook to make Rubio look silly. I mean this earlier clearly points out what Rubio can do on the defensive end and proves he is an above average defender. Back that up with Hinirch and Lawson isnt going to control anything.

And the Cavs have a slight edge in the front court? Ha. I've stated multiple times how ZBo, Lopez and Sanders all play better against Garnett. Horford is the only other big man on the team. Do people just not look at the evidence?

Knicks in 5 no question.

Hello from air and AB's room!

A few pieces of defense of the Cavs here, while I'm still unpacking...

1. Our versatility defensively will be an asset in this series. The Knicks have elite scorers at every position except PG, and we have elite defenders at every position (except PG ). Coach Hollins will have the versatility to increase Gerald Wallace's minutes - or even start him - to limit Jeff Green. If Z.Bo becomes a force off the bench, Hollins can quickly sub out Garnett in the first quarter so that his minutes line up with Z.Bo's. We have a ton of flexibility defensively.

2. Once again, we have more desire and know-how to win than the Knicks. KG - as arguably the smartest player in this entire series - will lead the Cavs to victory on more than one occasion. The Knicks, as balanced at they are with their starting lineup and bench, are extremely inexperienced, and this will hurt them.

3. Ty Lawson will go off in this series. Rubio's defense has always been weak, and Lawson's quickness will be hard for him to handle. I'm expecting around 20 ppg in this series from Ty, maybe more.


I have to get back to unpacking. Sorry I can't be more present during this round, but I'll leave you one last thought courtesy of my buddy ron...

In another note I definitely see Cleveland beating New York/Boston.

But this just isn't true...At all.

Rubio was second in steals last season with 2.4 per game. And it really wasn't due to gambling much. According to stats when Rubio is on the floor, his team gives up less points per possession than when he is on the floor.

Here is a quote from Rick Adelman, who is one of the leagues best.

For all that he provided at that end, they might miss his defense more. "I think we're really going to miss him there because he's really good at keeping his guy in front of him," Wolves coach Rick Adelman said. "That's probably the biggest thing."

Other Rubio quotes and links:
Here from ESPN:
"it looks right now like Rubio is already a difference-maker defending NBA guards, and that his impact on defense rivals all that stuff he's doing at the other end."

"You also might notice a lot of opposing guards simply coughing up balls against Minnesota. If you rewind and watch again, you'll notice a lot of those were poked free by Rubio, even if he is not credited with all those steals."

"the Timberwolves' have added a defender who makes a difference, and he happens to be the most exciting young offensive player in the NBA."
 

"Rubio is a fantastic help defender; arguably the best in the league from the backcourt."
http://fansided.com/2013/03/26/ricky-rubio-defensive-wizard/

There is NO WAY Lawson goes off. He is being guarded by a well well above average defender in Rubio and when Rubio takes a break he will be guarded by an even better defender in Hinrich.



I dont see why the Knicks are getting such a bad wrap defensively. The Cavs have a good defensive squad (KG, Wallace, and Allen) but the Knicks have Rubio, Green, Hinirch, Garcia, Sanders (possible DPOY candidate), and Lopez (and his 2+ blocks per game). The Cavs will be able to slow the Knicks offense down but who puts points on the board, especailly when the Knicks defense is perfectly adequate to stopping any team.

The stats dont lie ladies and gentlemen (mostly gentle) numbers show in head to head matchups Lopez, ZBo, and Sanders especially all out played KG in head to head match ups and he is now a year older.

Also shows that Martin can handle Allen at an above average rate or at least consistent numbers.

Green will be able to handle Wallace and Butler on defense and wont see much of a downgrade on the offensive end.

Downlow the Knicks have a huge advantage. Even if the Cavs slow the Knicks down it won't be enough to put points on the board.

Like I said. The evidence is there to support a win for the Knicks.