Amir Johnson to Celtics

[crimson_stallion]

The worst thing you can do when you're in NBA middle class hell is to improve by "a few more games".

As fans, we look at the 'now'. 

As managers, guys like Danny Ainge have to look at the now, and the future.  The three year plan.  Where are we, where do we want to go what do we need to do to get there.

A guy who looks like a small addition now, could be projected to become a key piece in a deal that brings us a huge piece one year from now.

The improvement of 'a few wins' could be enough to take us from an 8th seed to a 4th or 5th seed - that could be all the difference when determining how much interest big name free agents have in our team one year from now.

We need to consider that for every 1 scenario each of us imagines in our heads, Danny Ainge already has about 50.  He's the general manager on one of the richest teams in the NBA - every manner of resources you can image (scouts, financial guys, trainers, coaches, analytics guys, etc) are at his disposal.

If there's an option that we think about, that he doesn't do...it's probably because he's already thought about it, analysed it, and decided it wasn't in the team's best interest.

We underestimate the intelligence, knowledge, resources and experience that a person like Danny Ainge has available to him. 

[LilRip]

Call me crazy but I like the signing. We get a very serviceable player in Amir Johnson, it gives us cap flexibility since the contract is only for 2 years (with the 2nd year unguaranteed) and it gives us player flexibility since we can trade a guy like Sully/KO plus picks for someone very good without leaving our frontcourt devoid of talent.

Obviously, if we landed Kevin Love (who signed a rich contract in CLE) or LMA, that would be great news. But from the buzzing news out there, that seems highly unlikely.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

He looks like he's going to interact with fans, he may entertain us on and off the court. I don't like we get no news from players during the season, give me a little something outside of game action.

This may not be for everybody but I enjoy it, I wish more players did it.


https://www.youtube.com/user/amirtv/featured

[crimson_stallion]

I guess I just find it hard to believe that Johnson demanded a minimum of $12M year - it seems like a bit of an overpay.

It could well be that Johnson wanted a deal that was longer term, but at lower cost per year - say $21M over three years ($7M a year) just for argument's sake.

Danny may be aiming to have cap space available next year so he can make another run after (obviously) not getting what he hoped or this year - he may not have wanted to have $7m a year committed for the next 3 years.

So instead he makes an offer to Johnson.

"I won't give you $7M a year over the next three years guaranteed...But I'll push the salary up to $12M a year over two years if you are willing to accept the second year non-guaranteed."

Johnson might think about that think:

"Well hey, this reduced the stability and means I may not have a contract after this year...but that's somewhat offset by the fact that I'm making almost as much after one year on this deal as I would on two years with the other deal.  Plus even if I do get cut on the second year, I can probably sign with another team for around that $7M anyway."

It's a win-win for both parties.

[dreamgreen]

Sad part is he will be here next year. The cap will go up and we wont need the money because we can't sign anyone.

It's not all Danny's fault in years past picks and expiring contracts were gold now they're lead.

Yes the sky is falling!!

[Scintan]

The worst thing you can do when you're in NBA middle class hell is to improve by "a few more games".

As fans, we look at the 'now'. 

As managers, guys like Danny Ainge have to look at the now, and the future.  The three year plan.  Where are we, where do we want to go what do we need to do to get there.

A guy who looks like a small addition now, could be projected to become a key piece in a deal that brings us a huge piece one year from now.

The improvement of 'a few wins' could be enough to take us from an 8th seed to a 4th or 5th seed - that could be all the difference when determining how much interest big name free agents have in our team one year from now.

We need to consider that for every 1 scenario each of us imagines in our heads, Danny Ainge already has about 50.  He's the general manager on one of the richest teams in the NBA - every manner of resources you can image (scouts, financial guys, trainers, coaches, analytics guys, etc) are at his disposal.

If there's an option that we think about, that he doesn't do...it's probably because he's already thought about it, analysed it, and decided it wasn't in the team's best interest.

We underestimate the intelligence, knowledge, resources and experience that a person like Danny Ainge has available to him.

Big name free agents don't want to come to Boston.  That's not going to change because the team wins 4 more games.  Danny knows this.  We all know this.  Danny's not thinking any differently than many of us are.  The edge Danny (and every team employee in every sport) has over fans is information, not brainpower or strategy.

And I don't get where you toss in this notion of fans only looking at the "now".  That's clearly not accurate for many fans.

[Roy H.]

I'm relieved that the deals are only for one year, but I'm a bit puzzled by Danny electing to waste a year basically running the team back, wasting our cap space in the process.

If we were going to punt a year, wouldn't it have made more sense to stay under the cap or retain the trade exception, using our flexibility to pick up more assets like we did last year?  This could be the last season in awhile that teams are looking to dump salary to get under the cap.  Why not take advantage of that, if we're not signing an impact player?

[crimson_stallion]

Big name free agents don't want to come to Boston.  That's not going to change because the team wins 4 more games.  Danny knows this.  We all know this.  Danny's not thinking any differently than many of us are.  The edge Danny (and every team employee in every sport) has is information, not brainpower or strategy.

And I don't get where you toss in this notion of fans only looking at the "now".  That's clearly not accurate for many fans.

The whole argument of free agents not wanting to come to Boston is unfounded.  There is no clear evidence of this.  Every single player is completely different in what they want / do not want.

To try to suggest that a teams rank / position in the league doesn't impact it's ability to attract free agents is...bewildering.  Nobody wanted to go to Cleveland before they got Lebron and Love.  Why?  Because teams know that with Lebron / Irving / Love they are going to be a competitive team, and can offer a good chance at winning a title. 

Sacramento has the best center in the NBA, but which big name free agents choose to go there?  None.  Because they don't win.  If Sacramento finished last season with the 3rd seed in the West, watch how many players would have been scrambling this off season to try to have a chance to sign with the Kings and join Cousins.

Big free agents want money, and they want to win.  If you can convince free agents that they are the missing piece to making your team in to a legit contended, and if you can offer them the pay cheque they want, then you will inevitably attract some number of free agents.

Right now we are a 7th seed, first round sweep exit.  No free agent short of Lebron is going to (on his own) turn us into a contender.  Our success last year helped give us a hope in speaking to free agents, but still makes it hard for us to actually get one to really buy in.

If we pick up a couple of small pieces, make a couple of small improvements, improve to a 3rd or 4th seed, win (at the very least) one first round series, then it changes that perception. 

Plus yes, very few fans TRULY look past today.  They do when it comes to players (i.e. get this guy because he has potential) but they rarely do in terms of deals (i.e. this could be the deal that later leads to that deal).

Most fans seem to look at things in terms of black and white - either we make a deep playoff run this year, or we tank and get a top draft pick this year, otherwise if we get either it's a wasted year. 

What if this year is, in fact, a building block to a big next year?  What if this year was the main target, but everything is being set up so that th e next two year are backup plans?  Not many people seem to think that way - as in "if this year fails, what can we do next year". 

[hwangjini_1]

i dont know if this has been posted yet or not. too many pages to read in this thread. 

an overpay in dollars to shorten the contract. given the shifting environment in the nba's salary structure, i can see the logic.

Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42
Boston is in the lead for best contract so far. As @WojYahooNBA reported, 24m/2 for Amir Johnson is a huge bargain.
2:38 PM - 1 Jul 2015

and here is something from pelton on johnson. advanced metrics seem to like amir's game:

No. 18 Amir Johnson | PF/C
 
Last team: Toronto Raptors
3-year value: $48 million
2015-16 RPM: +4.1
2015-16 Win%: .486
 
An inaugural RPM All-Star when ESPN first introduced the stat in 2013-14, Johnson still rates as an elite contributor because of his defensive impact and could be a steal in free agency. A couple of caveats: While Johnson is only 28, he's played a decade in the NBA as the last player to be drafted out of high school prior to the age limit -- and has the ankles to prove it. As Johnson has slowed, he's no longer as effective chasing smaller players on the perimeter and may be most valuable strictly playing center.

[Scintan]

The whole argument of free agents not wanting to come to Boston is unfounded.  There is no clear evidence of this. 

Yes, there is.  It's been shown time and time again.  And adding a few wins to a sub .500 team isn't going to change it, either.


Since you claim that there's no evidence, however, perhaps you could give us a list of all the elite FAs that have left their team and signed in Boston as free agents since, say, 1995 (that would be a 20 year stretch, which is certainly large enough to have some significance)...?

[JumpingJudkins]

Don't know if anyone mentioned this. ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton had Johnson ranked 18th on his list of free agents, ahead of Monta Ellis, Brandon Knight, Robin Lopez, Tobias Harris, Jae Crowder, JR Smith, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, Brook Lopez.

Pelton estimated his worth as $48 million over the next three years, and suggested his best position might be center.

[Rondo9]

The whole argument of free agents not wanting to come to Boston is unfounded.  There is no clear evidence of this. 

Yes, there is.  It's been shown time and time again.  And adding a few wins to a sub .500 team isn't going to change it, either.

Specific examples?

[Lucky17]

The whole argument of free agents not wanting to come to Boston is unfounded.  There is no clear evidence of this. 

Yes, there is.  It's been shown time and time again.  And adding a few wins to a sub .500 team isn't going to change it, either.

LOL. No, there isn't. Before this season, Ainge has never had cap space to use on a FA.

[Scintan]

The whole argument of free agents not wanting to come to Boston is unfounded.  There is no clear evidence of this. 

Yes, there is.  It's been shown time and time again.  And adding a few wins to a sub .500 team isn't going to change it, either.

Specific examples?

I'm not playing the game of trying to prove a negative when the answer is obvious.  Feel free to provide specific examples to the contrary, which would obviously be the easier one to prove.

[Scintan]

The whole argument of free agents not wanting to come to Boston is unfounded.  There is no clear evidence of this. 

Yes, there is.  It's been shown time and time again.  And adding a few wins to a sub .500 team isn't going to change it, either.

LOL. No, there isn't. Before this season, Ainge has never had cap space to use on a FA.

Wait.... Did you just seriously try to use cap space as an excuse for the complete lack of a top FA in Boston in the last, say 20 years?

Cap space is what you're going with?