Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?

[BitterJim]

they need to refer back to the scouting reports that existed then. ainge played it safe.

this is the part that bothers me. if the Cs were reading the same scouting reports as you and me, they completely failed to do their job. they failed to properly scout Gobert. they failed to properly scout Schroder. and yes, they failed to properly scout Giannis. keep in mind that Ryan McD (who did much of their foreign scouting) was named GM of the Suns a couple months before this draft.

so in turn, calling KO a good pick is an oxymoron.

Scouting Gobert, or Giannis, or Schroeder more would not have changed the scouting reports much.  They all had massive red flags that made them risky picks.  They weren't any more or less superior as prospects than someone like Karasev, they just happened to have done what they needed to do in order to live up to their potential instead of busting out.  You can scout an international or college prospect as well and as thoroughly as you want, but it doesn't eliminate the risk, or tell you if they're gonna work out.  The Bucks, Hawks, and Jazz didn't do vastly superior scouting to lead them to picking Giannis, or Schroeder, or Gobert as sure things, they just decided to take flyers on them, and they worked.  Similarly, the Cavs and Toronto didn't have some inferior scouting to everyone else, that led them to thinking Karasev or Nogueria would be stars - they just weighed the risks, and took a chance on those guys.  The only real difference between them and the Bucks, Hawks, and Jazz are that their picks didn't work out (obviously, some teams have better or worse college and international scouting, but it isn't a massive difference that leads to picking or not picking - it's whether or not they decide to take the risk. The scouts are giving reports with strengths and weaknesses, plus personal opinions, but they don't actually know how good they'll be)

Edit: you added this

playing it safe is a cop out... it basically means Ainge was deeply familiar with Kelly and didn't wanna whiff on someone he hadn't spent enough time on to fully trust.

Not taking a chance on a player doesn't necessarily mean you didn't scout him enough to be familiar - it means you didn't feel comfortable with that risk.  I doubt that the Bucks' GM "fully trust[ed]" the Giannis pick, but he took a risk on it.  I'm sure the Cav's GM "trusted" the Sergey Karasev pick just as much as the Bucks' GM trusted the Giannis pick.  Taking more time to scout the pick wouldn't have revealed any big secrets that told you their future, it's a risk either way.  Ainge took the player that he knew would be a rotation player over a guy that nobody, not even the GM that drafted him, knew would be a great player instead of a total bust.

a lot of assumptions here.

here's what's less speculative: Ainge had never drafted a European player (other than Semih Erden at #60) ever before this year, if i'm not mistaken.

also less speculative: he's missed on tons of European players.

another: he missed badly on the three players I noted.

Ainge has also "missed" a bunch of European busts. Here's an analysis from Boris Badenov (one of the other posters here).  It's a couple of years old, so the 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts aren't really analyzed, but it gives a good idea of whether or not Danny had a bias against euros prior to the 2013 draft

I posted this in the Nurkic thread in response to some comments there, but thought it might be its own topic too.

I went back as far as the 2004 draft.

For each pick we had, I looked at all foreign players taken in the next 10 slots. These are guys Ainge plausibly "passed" on when he had the chance to take them.

I'm disregarding guys who were early 2nd round picks we couldn't plausibly have taken with an earlier 1st because of contract/buyout issues (famously, Pekovic - and also I think Asik).

Names in parentheses indicate the player we took. Names that follow are Euros we passed on.

Apologies if I've missed anything, I did this pretty quickly.

2004 (Jefferson). Passed on: Pozdolkine, Khryapa, Monia.

2004 (Justin Reed). Passed on: Sanikizde, Seung-jin, Lishouk.

2005 (Gerald Green). Passed on: Petro, Mahinmi.

2005 (Gomes). Passed on: Hervelle, Gortat, Slokar, Ankyol.

2006 (7th pick). Passed on: Sene, Sefolosha. (Traded for pieces later used in KG trade).

2006 (Rondo). Passed on: Rodriguez, Freeland.

2007 (5th pick). Passed on: Jianlian. (Traded for Ray Allen.)

2007 (Pruitt). Passed on: Fesenko, Barak, Yue, Gasol. (Note that Gasol was more than 10 picks later...but I know people will bring him up...in which case we also passed on Seibutis, Newley and Printezis).

2008 (Giddens). Passed on: Jawai. (See above for buyout issues on Pek and Asik).

2010 (Bradley). Passed on: None. (Tibor Pleiss and Nemjana Bjelica were the next two Euros taken.)

2010 (Harangody). Passed on: Sy.

2011 (JJJ). Passed on: none.

2011 (Moore). Passed on: Maduabum, Ngombo, Majok, Hanga.

2012 (Sully/Melo). Passed on: none. (Satoransky was the next Euro taken, in round 2).

2012 (Joseph). Passed on:Kuzmic, Karaman.

2013 (Olynyk). Passed on: Giannis, Noguiera, Schroder, Karasev, Gobert.

2013 (Iverson). Passed on: Lauvergne, Dubljevic, Timma.

2014 (Smart). Passed on: Saric, Nurkic.

2014 (Young). Passed on: Caboclo, Capela, Bogdanovic.


Summing it all up I'd say that Ainge has missed two guys (Gasol and Gortat), possibly missed another depending on how hot you are for Giannis....and skipped countless Euros taken by others later, nearly all of whom turned out to be absolute scrubs and nobodies. Even if you look at Ainge's misses they are more often domestic than foreign.

It looks less like bias and more like smart drafting to me.

[Celtics18]

they need to refer back to the scouting reports that existed then. ainge played it safe.

this is the part that bothers me. if the Cs were reading the same scouting reports as you and me, they completely failed to do their job. they failed to properly scout Gobert. they failed to properly scout Schroder. and yes, they failed to properly scout Giannis. keep in mind that Ryan McD (who did much of their foreign scouting) was named GM of the Suns a couple months before this draft.

so in turn, calling KO a good pick is an oxymoron. playing it safe is a cop out... it basically means Ainge was deeply familiar with Kelly and didn't wanna whiff on someone he hadn't spent enough time on to fully trust.

By "failed to properly scout," do you mean "not able to accurately predict what kind of NBA player each guy would be three years after the draft"?

[GratefulCs]

So, to all the ainge doubters, i want to know what european players are coming out of this draft that we SHOULD draft.

Let us know


You can have bragging rights

[ssspence]

they need to refer back to the scouting reports that existed then. ainge played it safe.

this is the part that bothers me. if the Cs were reading the same scouting reports as you and me, they completely failed to do their job. they failed to properly scout Gobert. they failed to properly scout Schroder. and yes, they failed to properly scout Giannis. keep in mind that Ryan McD (who did much of their foreign scouting) was named GM of the Suns a couple months before this draft.

so in turn, calling KO a good pick is an oxymoron. playing it safe is a cop out... it basically means Ainge was deeply familiar with Kelly and didn't wanna whiff on someone he hadn't spent enough time on to fully trust.

By "failed to properly scout," do you mean "not able to accurately predict what kind of NBA player each guy would be three years after the draft"?

is that question supposed to be glib? what do you think professional sports scouts do?

if Ainge thought any of the three players I mentioned would be even 2/3 as good as they already are now (at very young ages, respectively, with more room to grow than KO), you don't think he would have taken them instead?

you think he didn't take them because he doesn't like foreign languages or something?

[Celtics18]

they need to refer back to the scouting reports that existed then. ainge played it safe.

this is the part that bothers me. if the Cs were reading the same scouting reports as you and me, they completely failed to do their job. they failed to properly scout Gobert. they failed to properly scout Schroder. and yes, they failed to properly scout Giannis. keep in mind that Ryan McD (who did much of their foreign scouting) was named GM of the Suns a couple months before this draft.

so in turn, calling KO a good pick is an oxymoron. playing it safe is a cop out... it basically means Ainge was deeply familiar with Kelly and didn't wanna whiff on someone he hadn't spent enough time on to fully trust.

By "failed to properly scout," do you mean "not able to accurately predict what kind of NBA player each guy would be three years after the draft"?

is that question supposed to be glib? what do you think professional sports scouts do?

if Ainge thought any of the three players I mentioned would be even 2/3 as good as they already are now (at very young ages, respectively, with more room to grow than KO), you don't think he would have taken them instead?

you think he didn't take them because he doesn't like foreign languages or something?

Yes, it's meant to be somewhat glib, but I'm also, honestly, somewhat confused by the meaning.  I think you mean that Danny and his staff failed to predict how good these players would become, not that they didn't do their homework on them.

I think he didn't take them because he didn't believe they would become as good as they have.  Personally, I don't blame him.  I had Kelly ahead of all three of those guys myself at the time.  I loved Schroder--picked him for my DKC fantasy team at (I think it was 13)--but the Celtics had Rondo so I didn't feel we needed a German one.  I wanted a big and I just didn't trust Gobert's frame, having been burned on Fab Melo recently (as far as skinny foreign bigs went, I preferred Bebe).  As for Giannis, I was intrigued, but I was like, what do you do with a 6'9" point guard who can't shoot who is straight out of the Greek second division?  In theory, he was fascinating, but just too "freaky."

Anyway, I don't think you mean he "failed to scout them," as in "he didn't scout them adequately," rather that he made a mistake in judgment.

[Moranis]

they need to refer back to the scouting reports that existed then. ainge played it safe.

this is the part that bothers me. if the Cs were reading the same scouting reports as you and me, they completely failed to do their job. they failed to properly scout Gobert. they failed to properly scout Schroder. and yes, they failed to properly scout Giannis. keep in mind that Ryan McD (who did much of their foreign scouting) was named GM of the Suns a couple months before this draft.

so in turn, calling KO a good pick is an oxymoron. playing it safe is a cop out... it basically means Ainge was deeply familiar with Kelly and didn't wanna whiff on someone he hadn't spent enough time on to fully trust.

By "failed to properly scout," do you mean "not able to accurately predict what kind of NBA player each guy would be three years after the draft"?

is that question supposed to be glib? what do you think professional sports scouts do?

if Ainge thought any of the three players I mentioned would be even 2/3 as good as they already are now (at very young ages, respectively, with more room to grow than KO), you don't think he would have taken them instead?

you think he didn't take them because he doesn't like foreign languages or something?

Yes, it's meant to be somewhat glib, but I'm also, honestly, somewhat confused by the meaning.  I think you mean that Danny and his staff failed to predict how good these players would become, not that they didn't do their homework on them.

I think he didn't take them because he didn't believe they would become as good as they have.  Personally, I don't blame him.  I had Kelly ahead of all three of those guys myself at the time.  I loved Schroder--picked him for my DKC fantasy team at (I think it was 13)--but the Celtics had Rondo so I didn't feel we needed a German one.  I wanted a big and I just didn't trust Gobert's frame, having been burned on Fab Melo recently (as far as skinny foreign bigs went, I preferred Bebe).  As for Giannis, I was intrigued, but I was like, what do you do with a 6'9" point guard who can't shoot who is straight out of the Greek second division?  In theory, he was fascinating, but just too "freaky."

Anyway, I don't think you mean he "failed to scout them," as in "he didn't scout them adequately," rather that he made a mistake in judgment.

There are teams that are often hitting on European/Foreign players.  If scouted properly the foreign players really aren't any more of a crap shoot than the college ones.  There does seem to be a lack of foreign scouting from the Celtics though at least until this year as Boston under Ainge had taken 1 foreign players until this season (Erden).  Maybe Ainge finally realized they were missing out on potential stars by not properly scouting them. 

[Celtics18]

they need to refer back to the scouting reports that existed then. ainge played it safe.

this is the part that bothers me. if the Cs were reading the same scouting reports as you and me, they completely failed to do their job. they failed to properly scout Gobert. they failed to properly scout Schroder. and yes, they failed to properly scout Giannis. keep in mind that Ryan McD (who did much of their foreign scouting) was named GM of the Suns a couple months before this draft.

so in turn, calling KO a good pick is an oxymoron. playing it safe is a cop out... it basically means Ainge was deeply familiar with Kelly and didn't wanna whiff on someone he hadn't spent enough time on to fully trust.

By "failed to properly scout," do you mean "not able to accurately predict what kind of NBA player each guy would be three years after the draft"?

is that question supposed to be glib? what do you think professional sports scouts do?

if Ainge thought any of the three players I mentioned would be even 2/3 as good as they already are now (at very young ages, respectively, with more room to grow than KO), you don't think he would have taken them instead?

you think he didn't take them because he doesn't like foreign languages or something?

Yes, it's meant to be somewhat glib, but I'm also, honestly, somewhat confused by the meaning.  I think you mean that Danny and his staff failed to predict how good these players would become, not that they didn't do their homework on them.

I think he didn't take them because he didn't believe they would become as good as they have.  Personally, I don't blame him.  I had Kelly ahead of all three of those guys myself at the time.  I loved Schroder--picked him for my DKC fantasy team at (I think it was 13)--but the Celtics had Rondo so I didn't feel we needed a German one.  I wanted a big and I just didn't trust Gobert's frame, having been burned on Fab Melo recently (as far as skinny foreign bigs went, I preferred Bebe).  As for Giannis, I was intrigued, but I was like, what do you do with a 6'9" point guard who can't shoot who is straight out of the Greek second division?  In theory, he was fascinating, but just too "freaky."

Anyway, I don't think you mean he "failed to scout them," as in "he didn't scout them adequately," rather that he made a mistake in judgment.

There are teams that are often hitting on European/Foreign players.  If scouted properly the foreign players really aren't any more of a crap shoot than the college ones.  There does seem to be a lack of foreign scouting from the Celtics though at least until this year as Boston under Ainge had taken 1 foreign players until this season (Erden).  Maybe Ainge finally realized they were missing out on potential stars by not properly scouting them.

I highly doubt that the reason for not taking any International prospects was a "lack of scouting."  I am fairly confident that Danny and his staff did their due diligence, travelled to foreign countries, watched these kids play, talked to whomever they were allowed to talk to, and seriously considered the pros and cons of selecting each player.

In the end, he went with North American prospects that he liked instead.  I mean, the only two guys who he can seriously be kicking himself over (along with a lot of other GMs) are Antetokoumnpo and M. Gasol. 

[Quetzalcoatl]

Man I really have loved Euros and think there is a big opportunity there.  I have been good about predicting them....except for this last draft.  I really liked Luwawu for example and he seems like a bust already, although the kid does have heart.  I did also like Zizic though and he's looking good, but we don't really know yet. 

There are others like Exum and who knows when he is going to show anything substantial, although he's only 21 and he did miss a year.

[PhoSita]

Looking at Boris's list from a couple years back, it strikes me how many quality Euro prospects we've seen in recent years.  There were a lot of busts that Ainge thankfully didn't take back in the mid-00s.  But more recently we've seen a few drafts in a row now where there were multiple quality foreign prospects on the board when the Celts were picking (Giannis, Schroder, Gobert, Nurkic, Capela, Jokic).

Hopefully Ainge's major foray into the foreign market with two 1st round picks in the most recent draft will pay dividends.

[Celtics18]

Looking at Boris's list from a couple years back, it strikes me how many quality Euro prospects we've seen in recent years.  There were a lot of busts that Ainge thankfully didn't take back in the mid-00s.  But more recently we've seen a few drafts in a row now where there were multiple quality foreign prospects on the board when the Celts were picking (Giannis, Schroder, Gobert, Nurkic, Capela, Jokic).

Hopefully Ainge's major foray into the foreign market with two 1st round picks in the most recent draft will pay dividends.

Good call.  It's not surprising that the talent level for Euros isn't just getting better at the top, but also deeper.

I think that over the years, the "fear factor" for Euros coming to play with the big boys in the NBA is dissipating more and more as well.

I'm all for it becoming the world game.

[ssspence]

Anyway, I don't think you mean he "failed to scout them," as in "he didn't scout them adequately," rather that he made a mistake in judgment.

I'm saying that the former lead to the latter. I seriously doubt any of them was focused on the right way, which is why none of them was drafted.

Yes, Ainge just took two foreign players in the draft this year, but only because he HAD to. I'm interested to see if either pans out. But I can say with great confidence that the Cs have not prioritized international scouting like many other NBA teams over the years, in all likelihood to their detriment. Clearly in the case of the 2013 draft, that's the case.

[Surferdad]

Anyway, I don't think you mean he "failed to scout them," as in "he didn't scout them adequately," rather that he made a mistake in judgment.

I'm saying that the former lead to the latter. I seriously doubt any of them was focused on the right way, which is why none of them was drafted.

Yes, Ainge just took two foreign players in the draft this year, but only because he HAD to. I'm interested to see if either pans out. But I can say with great confidence that the Cs have not prioritized international scouting like many other NBA teams over the years, in all likelihood to their detriment. Clearly in the case of the 2013 draft, that's the case.

Well, that seems to be true.  However, I give credit to Ainge for the 2 international stashes because he was able to utilize all those draft picks.  Remember how many of us thought there HAD TO be a trade to use all the picks?  We he proved us wrong. He did not HAVE TO take Int'l players.

[PhoSita]

Looking at Boris's list from a couple years back, it strikes me how many quality Euro prospects we've seen in recent years.  There were a lot of busts that Ainge thankfully didn't take back in the mid-00s.  But more recently we've seen a few drafts in a row now where there were multiple quality foreign prospects on the board when the Celts were picking (Giannis, Schroder, Gobert, Nurkic, Capela, Jokic).

Hopefully Ainge's major foray into the foreign market with two 1st round picks in the most recent draft will pay dividends.

Good call.  It's not surprising that the talent level for Euros isn't just getting better at the top, but also deeper.

I think that over the years, the "fear factor" for Euros coming to play with the big boys in the NBA is dissipating more and more as well.

I'm all for it becoming the world game.

I'm hoping that the NBA will expand roster spots for D-League development and at the same time increase the amount of money teams can put toward the buyout of a foreign-league contract.

That way, more teams will spend money on Euro role players like Sergio Rodriguez, Mirza Teletovic, Nemanja Bjelica, Davis Bertans, etc, without having to sacrifice roster spots for developing guys with higher upside.

I think that would improve the quality of play leaguewide.  There are plenty of guys in Europe who could be rotation players in the NBA, but teams don't have the $$ or the roster spots for them because of all the rookie contract guys who can't play yet (e.g. James Young / Jaylen Brown / Jordan Mickey).

[Celtics18]

Anyway, I don't think you mean he "failed to scout them," as in "he didn't scout them adequately," rather that he made a mistake in judgment.

I'm saying that the former lead to the latter. I seriously doubt any of them was focused on the right way, which is why none of them was drafted.

Yes, Ainge just took two foreign players in the draft this year, but only because he HAD to. I'm interested to see if either pans out. But I can say with great confidence that the Cs have not prioritized international scouting like many other NBA teams over the years, in all likelihood to their detriment. Clearly in the case of the 2013 draft, that's the case.

I don't know if you remember this, but Danny personally made a trip to Greece to scout Antetokounmpo in 2013.  If you don't think he had other members of the staff out scouting other internationals, I think you are mistaken. 

Just because he didn't pick an international doesn't mean they weren't adequately scouted.  Your logic is faulty.

[Tr1boy]

Anyway, I don't think you mean he "failed to scout them," as in "he didn't scout them adequately," rather that he made a mistake in judgment.

I'm saying that the former lead to the latter. I seriously doubt any of them was focused on the right way, which is why none of them was drafted.

Yes, Ainge just took two foreign players in the draft this year, but only because he HAD to. I'm interested to see if either pans out. But I can say with great confidence that the Cs have not prioritized international scouting like many other NBA teams over the years, in all likelihood to their detriment. Clearly in the case of the 2013 draft, that's the case.

I don't know if you remember this, but Danny personally made a trip to Greece to scout Antetokounmpo in 2013.  If you don't think he had other members of the staff out scouting other internationals, I think you are mistaken. 

Just because he didn't pick an international doesn't mean they weren't adequately scouted.  Your logic is faulty.

Giannis disagrees and so do I.

KO imo was not dannys #1 choice. CBS suggestion came through. KO killed his butler team and frustrated CBS. That is enough to grab his interest. A big man who has pg skills and has longball shooting potential

Take a look back at what kind of players Doc preferred (shooting nor passing not the number 1 thing vs athelticism )