CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: CFAN38 on August 07, 2018, 12:05:21 PM
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The rotation is going to be a tough puzzle for BS this season.
Assuming 100% health this is my prediction to start the year.
Starters
Irving 32mpg
Brown 31mpg
Tatum 34mpg
Hayward 32mpg
Horford 30mpg
Bench
Smart 28mpg
Rozier 20mpg
Morris 18mpg
Baynes 15mpg
Notes:
Morris will likely have to play some minutes as a small ball 5 in order to get on the court.
Baynes will see his min fluctuate based on match-ups
Against most teams I suspect we will see Tatum as the first player subbed out likely for Smart. It will make sense for the Cs to stagger Irving, Tatum and Hayward in a way that one of the 3 is always on the court.
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I think Theis gets regular minutes, and I doubt there are as many guys over 30 mpg as suggested here, but otherwise it’s the most likely lineup.
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The rotation is going to be a tough puzzle for BS this season.
Assuming 100% health this is my prediction to start the year.
Starters
Irving 32mpg
Brown 31mpg
Tatum 34mpg
Hayward 32mpg
Horford 30mpg
Bench
Smart 28mpg
Rozier 20mpg
Morris 18mpg
Baynes 15mpg
Notes:
Morris will likely have to play some minutes as a small ball 5 in order to get on the court.
Baynes will see his min fluctuate based on match-ups
Against most teams I suspect we will see Tatum as the first player subbed out likely for Smart. It will make sense for the Cs to stagger Irving, Tatum and Hayward in a way that one of the 3 is always on the court.
If the team is as good as I expect I think the starters minutes will be pushed down due to blowing bad teams out.
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Hayward will play less than 32 minutes a game, especially for the first half of the season, and also Irving. Due to both players coming off surgery.
It's going to be a while before Hayward gains confidence in that foot. He may start games but will be the first player to be substituted for IMO.
Lucky for him and the team that the C's are so deep at SF.
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I just checked the minutes for the 85/86 Celts. I've put my guess and corresponding player next to each old timer (some numbers are rounded)...
Bird - 38 min -- Hayward - 30
McHale - 35 -- Tatum - 32
DJ - 35 -- Irving - 35
Parish - 32 -- Horford - 28
Danny - 30 -- Brown - 32
sub total - 170 sub total - 157
Sichting - 20 -- Rozier - 22
Walton - 19 -- Baynes - 15
Wedman - 18 -- Morris - 15
Carlisle - 10 -- Smart - 25
sub total - 67 sub total - 77
Williams - 9 -- Theis - 6
Thirdkill - 8
Vincent - 8
Kite - 7
My guess is that Irving, Tatum, and Brown get the most minutes and finish a tight game with Hayward and Horford.
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Baynes will start against some centers.
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Yes, Baynes will likely get a few starts depending on match ups. I also doubt that Brad will have a nine or ten man rotation during the regular season. I think Semi, Bird, and maybe even Yabu will get some minutes here and there. They won't get down to the ten man rotation until it gets closer to playoff time.
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Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
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Healthy-ish team, CBS is going to try his hardest to keep starters around 32 mins, it's what he does. I hope blowouts force us into playing them 30. We will be as fresh as a team can be if it works out. Our bench is potentially better than any bench GSW has ever had!
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Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
There is simply no way Smart plays doubles the minutes that Rozier and Morris do
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All healthy I'd want to plan for everyone under 30 minutes unless they are having a hot night. Minutes per position avg for the main rotation I list below. There is a balance of unclaimed minutes that would go to the best playing guys that night or to the end of the bench guys
PG- Irving 28, Rozier 12, Smart 6
SG- Brown 26, Smart 12, Rozier 6
SF- Hayward 26, Morris 7, Tatum 7, Semi 5
PF- Tatum 20, Horford 10, Morris 12, Theis 5
C- Horford 15, Baynes 15, Theis 10
That's an 11 man nightly rotation.
Guards-Irving 28, Smart 18, Rozier 18
Wings-Hayward 26, Brown 26, Tatum 27, Morris 19, Semi 5
Bigs-Horford 25, Baynes 15, Theis 15
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Irving - 32
Tatum - 32
Brown - 32
Horford - 30
Hayward - 28
Smart - 23
Rozier - 23
Morris - 15
Baynes - 15
Theis - 10
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POINT GUARD:
30 Kyrie Irving
10 Marcus Smart
8 Terry Rozier
TWO GUARD:
12 Jaylen Brown
18 Marcus Smart
18 Terry Rozier
SMALL FORWARD:
20 Gordon Hayward
18 Jaylen Brown
10 Jayson Tatum
POWER FORWARD:
20 Jayson Tatum
16 Marcus Morris
8 Gordon Hayward
4 Al Horford
CENTER:
24 Al Horford
14 Aron Baynes
10 Daniel Theis
Keeps everyone at or under 30 total minutes which will hopefully keep everyone fresh for the playoffs especially our vets and players coming off injury. Unfortunately Semi Ojeleye and Robert Williams won’t play much. Also, Daniel Theis and Aaron Baynes won’t play nearly as much as they should. They’re both so good. Ideally Marcus Morris would be left out of the rotation which would leave more minutes for Al at the 4 and more minutes for Baynes and Theis who are more valuable players. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. Semi Ojeleye or Robert Williams could also take some of those 16 minutes. Brad Wanamaker, Jabari Bird, and Guerschon Yabusele will be the deep reserves.
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I truly believe Robert Williams is gonna have some minutes, at least against lottery teams.
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Starters will average 20 mins a game. Each game will be over at the half. Robert Williams will lead the Celtics in mpg. 82-0 baby!
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In my thinking, the uncertainty is with the bigs. You need to cover 96 minutes and I don't think Tatum is going to play all that many of them:
Bigs
Horford 30
Baynes 18
Morris 20
Theis 18
(Tatum 10)
Wings
Brown 32
Tatum 22 (32 Total)
Hayward 28
Rozier 14
PG
Irving 26
Smart 18
Rozier 4 (18 Total)
This accounts for the expectation that Hayward and Irving will miss games for rest and is based on the average over 82 games, not the average in the games they play in. Smart and Rozier get short-changed because of the need to play Morris and Theis more. There will probably be trades or injuries that allow the roster to balance out.
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sure:
liam
chief
bring toughness back
boston garden leprechaun
c's fan since 60's
we will see who wants to come off bench later
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Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
There is simply no way Smart plays doubles the minutes that Rozier and Morris do
Why not?
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Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
There is simply no way Smart plays doubles the minutes that Rozier and Morris do
Why not?
Because Smart isn't nearly good enough to warrant that. And he only played 3mpg more than Morris, and 4mpg more than Rozier last year.