Author Topic: The Solution to Our Problem (AKA How to Get Harden & Move Walker): Ball Bros.  (Read 5664 times)

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Offline Sophomore

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Ainge 1st rounders in the last decade


2010 - Bradley - Became a solid starter
2011 - JaJuan Johnson - Couldn't stick in the league at all
** (but he also drafted E. Moore in the 2nd round who has become a solid rotation guard)
2012 - Sully - Solid rotation big for a few years; Fab - Not an NBA player (RIP)
2013 - Olynyk - Still a quality rotation big
2014 - Smart - core piece; James Young - not an NBA player
2015 - Rozier - solid rotation guard; RJ Hunter - not an NBA player
2016 - Jaylen - All-Star caliber wing; Yabu - not an NBA player
2017 - Tatum - Superstar
2018 - Timelord - backup center with promise
2019 - Langford - injured, too soon to say; Grant - useful role player already
2020 - Nesmith - can't say yet; Pritchard - can't say yet


So . . . 17 picks total. 

Three top 10 picks.  All major hits.

Three late lottery picks.  One hit and two that are too soon to tell.

Five mid-1st picks.  Three hits, one mixed (useful but fell out of the league fast), and two total busts.

Six late 1st rounders.  Two that are already end of rotation players, so you can call those hits.  One incomplete.  Three total misses.



I dunno ... that seems like a pretty good success rate, to me.  It's just hard to build out your team via the draft when you're mostly picking in the last third of the first round.

What Ainge did is hit big on the top 10 picks he had.  That's much more important than finding role players at the end of the 1st round.


It seems worse because a lot of the guys Ainge drafted in the middle of the 1st who became solid NBA players got paid and the team let them go.  But that was needed in order to have cap space to sign guys like Hayward, Horford, and Kemba.  You can't pay a premium to keep young role players (i.e. 7-9th men) and also chase max FA.
You can rationalize it all night long but the reality is that we are in a slightly worse position compared to when we drafted Tatum. It seems like all this asset accumulation went to waste

Well sure. And the biggest single reason was that Hayward snapped his leg in his first game and lost 2 years. Still isn’t the same player and may never be. If he stays healthy, that Cs team would’ve gone to the finals and I bet the whole team dynamic is different. That’s the line between success and failure.

Heck - if Kemba *or* Hayward was at full strength in the bubble I think we’d have been in the finals last year. The assets were there, they just weren’t healthy.

Offline Ogaju

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OP must be a Rocket fan. None is worth that haul. N O    O N E ! ! !

Celtics fan through and through.

Here’s the deal: With the exception of the Raptors, who probably only won because KD and Klay both got injured, all of the champions since the last CBA had at least two superstars (heck, gotta go back to 2011 to find the last team before the Raptors to do it). 

All-stars win divisions and superstars win titles. We need that second superstar. He’s standing right before us. If it is a pairing that works, which I’m confident it will be, we gave up a bunch of picks in the 20s (hopefully a couple 30th picks) and 2nd round picks plus Brown for Harden, with the Kemba move creating cap flexibility/affordability.

I agree with you that Cs need stars and should get Harden, but no one is worth that ridiculous haul. NO ONE.

Offline ETNCeltics

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lol at people writing off Kemba.

Harden is a cancer, and his game is unwatchable. Can't think of a worse idea than selling the farm for him.

Offline PhoSita

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You can rationalize it all night long but the reality is that we are in a slightly worse position compared to when we drafted Tatum. It seems like all this asset accumulation went to waste


It's not rationalizing.

You're right that the transition from having "assets" to actually using those assets to build a team has, unsurprisingly, resulted in something less than what we fantasized about.


Plans and theories tend not to survive contact with reality unscathed.  Fresh oxygen of reality is corrosive to the pristine metal of long term planning.


The Hayward injury was huge.  Just enormous.  The plan was clearly to go all in on with Hayward and Kyrie and then use the success that those two had playing with Horford to entice Anthony Davis to join up with them in a Celtics uniform.  All of those 1st round picks would have been used as grist for whatever deals needed to be made to facilitate that.


That all went out the window within a few minutes of the 2017-2018 season officially getting underway.

We can talk all we want about the things Ainge could have done, but it really all comes back to that.

The fact that we've seen this team make it to two ECFs and they're sitting here with two <25 year old stars to build around despite the disastrous Hayward injury and everything that happened as a result is a testament to the strength of the position that the Celts were in 4-5 years ago.  Even a historic disaster did not totally derail the team to the point that a tough rebuilding period was necessary.
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Offline gouki88

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This seems like getting Harden with extra steps that weaken our team unnecessarily
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
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SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
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Offline Kernewek

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You can rationalize it all night long but the reality is that we are in a slightly worse position compared to when we drafted Tatum. It seems like all this asset accumulation went to waste


It's not rationalizing.

You're right that the transition from having "assets" to actually using those assets to build a team has, unsurprisingly, resulted in something less than what we fantasized about.


Plans and theories tend not to survive contact with reality unscathed.  Fresh oxygen of reality is corrosive to the pristine metal of long term planning.


The Hayward injury was huge.  Just enormous.  The plan was clearly to go all in on with Hayward and Kyrie and then use the success that those two had playing with Horford to entice Anthony Davis to join up with them in a Celtics uniform.  All of those 1st round picks would have been used as grist for whatever deals needed to be made to facilitate that.


That all went out the window within a few minutes of the 2017-2018 season officially getting underway.

We can talk all we want about the things Ainge could have done, but it really all comes back to that.

The fact that we've seen this team make it to two ECFs and they're sitting here with two <25 year old stars to build around despite the disastrous Hayward injury and everything that happened as a result is a testament to the strength of the position that the Celts were in 4-5 years ago.  Even a historic disaster did not totally derail the team to the point that a tough rebuilding period was necessary.

Entirely agreed. Great post.
Man had always assumed that he was more intelligent than dolphins because he had achieved so much—the wheel, New York, wars and so on—whilst all the dolphins had ever done was muck about in the water having a good time.

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Online RodyTur10

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You can rationalize it all night long but the reality is that we are in a slightly worse position compared to when we drafted Tatum. It seems like all this asset accumulation went to waste


It's not rationalizing.

You're right that the transition from having "assets" to actually using those assets to build a team has, unsurprisingly, resulted in something less than what we fantasized about.


Plans and theories tend not to survive contact with reality unscathed.  Fresh oxygen of reality is corrosive to the pristine metal of long term planning.


The Hayward injury was huge.  Just enormous.  The plan was clearly to go all in on with Hayward and Kyrie and then use the success that those two had playing with Horford to entice Anthony Davis to join up with them in a Celtics uniform.  All of those 1st round picks would have been used as grist for whatever deals needed to be made to facilitate that.


That all went out the window within a few minutes of the 2017-2018 season officially getting underway.

We can talk all we want about the things Ainge could have done, but it really all comes back to that.

The fact that we've seen this team make it to two ECFs and they're sitting here with two <25 year old stars to build around despite the disastrous Hayward injury and everything that happened as a result is a testament to the strength of the position that the Celts were in 4-5 years ago.  Even a historic disaster did not totally derail the team to the point that a tough rebuilding period was necessary.

To some degree you're absolutely right. But isn't the organization at some fault that they couldn't stop that dynamic of that team falling apart? In retrospect the Hayward signing wasn't instrumental to that Celtics team pushing to become a contender. In turned out that Tatum was an immediate contributor as a rookie and Brown was a bit surprisingly ready to be a starter. That Celtics team got to game 7 of the Conference Finals against LeBron's Cavs and lost by going cold on threes, while they missed their best player in Irving for those whole playoffs.

It went wrong after that season when there became a division between the youngsters who had reached the Conference Finals and the veterans who wanted the hierarchy back as how it was. Then you had Hayward returning and being put into the starting line-up immediately while being far from close to his previous level. A couple of role players that were looking for a big payday and an opportunity to showcase their talents. It went south from there.

I don't believe a lack of talent was ever the real issue. Sure the Golden State Warriors juggernaut would have been hard to beat anyhow, but that Celtics roster was very deep and talented as well. Even with Hayward at 80% that team should have been good enough. To what extent is debatable, but there is certainly blame on the coaching staff and management for their inability to manage that locker room.

You can't lose Irving, Rozier, Hayward, Morris and Horford for nothing in less than a 2-year-span and say that you didn't make some big mistakes in the process. Like the 76ers, the NBA was looking at the Celtics as the next big threat with that warchest of picks. The opposition probably is breathing a sigh of relief. The 76ers have Simmons and Embiid, but their assets to put them over the top have evaporated. The Celtics have Tatum and Brown, but they don't have the depth to compete now, and I doubt the bunch of lately drafted guys as Pritchard, Langford, Nesmith, G.Williams and R.Williams are really scaring anyone.

The market for Harden could be remarkably favorable to the Celtics because of a few factors:

1. The Rockets seem to insist on getting Harden out of the West
2. The Rockets want a young star, which only a couple of teams in the East have
3. Lots of teams in the East are very far from competing and would have no interest in a win-now move
4. There is tension at our rivals like Philadelphia (Morey), Brooklyn (Irving) and Miami (Butler) which makes it less likely those teams will come up with a big enough package to pursuade the Rockets

Biggest concern for the Celtics is Kemba Walker. His contract is looking really bad. Some of you are much more positive about Kemba and foresee a borderline All Star for the rest of his career with some load management. I hope some GM out there believes the same and is willing to take him on for a few assets (which can be used in a Harden offer). I think Brown + Smart would be a fair asking price for the Rockets, but that would decimate our defense, so I'd be unwilling to do that. So hopefully a deal could be done in another reasonable way.

A starting line-up of Harden/Smart/Tatum/Tucker/Thompson would look really good. Adding a couple of useful bench players to complete the roster is much easier than obtaining a multi-year MVP candidate and a top 30 player of all time who still looks to be in his prime (god forbid another injury disaster).

Whether Stevens and the organization can keep Harden's personality in check remains to be seen, but he would be a great fit in the Celtics system. Harden is a pick-and-roll maestro and the best iso-player in the world, he brings the necessary playmaking and shotmaking ability the Celtics crave for and while he isn't a good defender, his best ability in that regard to switch on bigger players is very useful in Stevens' defensive tactics.

And what will make Tatum happier? To play alongside a superstar who can raise his game and help him to contend? Or to be the main offensive creator where he regularly has to decide between going 1 on 2 or to pass to guys like Smart, Theis, Ojeleye, G.Williams to make the open shot and be a first or second round exit?
« Last Edit: December 23, 2020, 07:48:27 AM by RodyTur10 »

Offline PhoSita

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And what will make Tatum happier? To play alongside a superstar who can raise his game and help him to contend? Or to be the main offensive creator where he regularly has to decide between going 1 on 2 or to pass to guys like Smart, Theis, Ojeleye, G.Williams to make the open shot and be a first or second round exit?


None of us can really know that answer, obviously, since we don't know Tatum personally.  But young superstars tend to want to be the main man.  Especially young superstars who have been the top scorer for a team that went to Game 7 of the ECF in their rookie season.

This is partly the answer to your question about why the team couldn't make it work with Kyrie and Tatum, too.  After Hayward, the team had two timelines.  You're right that in theory the team bears responsibility to try to make things work with Kyrie and Tatum.  But what we saw from Kyrie in his time here should, I think, cast aside any reasonable expectation that any front office could have a hand in making that guy think or feel anything he's not inclined to think or feel already.


If, three to four years from now, the Celts have still never been better than a second tier also-ran, this may be a different story.  Even then, I would guess that Tatum would want to play with a superstar that complements his game, not somebody whose game would require him to take a step back into the secondary role he had when he was playing with Kyrie.
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Offline RJ87

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Can't we consolidate all the Harden threads at this point? They're all essentially the same kind of unrealistic trade proposal one after the other.
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PG: Kyrie Irving/Patty Mills/Jalen Brunson
SG: OG Anunoby/Norman Powell/Matisse Thybulle
SF: Gordon Hayward/Demar Derozan
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Robert Covington
C: Kristaps Porzingis/Bobby Portis/James Wiseman

Offline td450

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You can't lose Irving, Rozier, Hayward, Morris and Horford for nothing in less than a 2-year-span and say that you didn't make some big mistakes in the process.

I don't see any major mistakes there. I do believe that Ainge could have sensed the issues were building up with Irving, and perhaps traded him proactively. But that is easy to say now, and if Irving had been able to hold it together emotionally and stayed healthy, we would have been in the hunt for a title for years.

I was surprised about holding onto Rozier and Morris, because that seemed unwise, but I don't see how it would have been a critical move either way. They weren't that important.

To me the biggest misses were:

Signing Kemba instead of Brogdon, and I don't even know if Brogdon would have had interest in the C's.

Not trading up to get Halliburton

There are reasonable arguments against both of those. I think we've just had terrible luck. If we contend, it will be because we can develop a couple of players into more than they seem right now. Great teams have to do that.

Offline ederson

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You can't lose Irving, Rozier, Hayward, Morris and Horford for nothing in less than a 2-year-span and say that you didn't make some big mistakes in the process.


Hayward was not lost for nothing (yet) and if i remember correctly rozier was traded for walker in a sign&trade

Considering a mistake to lose Morris in free agency is at least funny.

Offline BringToughnessBack

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Wow, I literally just threw up in my mouth. Herschel Walker says Hi...That brought me back to that famous trade that destroyed the Vikings for almost a decade and gifted Super Bowls to the Cowboys.

I hope Harden gets traded to the Knicks...they deserve each other.

Offline RJ87

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You can't lose Irving, Rozier, Hayward, Morris and Horford for nothing in less than a 2-year-span and say that you didn't make some big mistakes in the process.

To me the biggest misses were:

Signing Kemba instead of Brogdon, and I don't even know if Brogdon would have had interest in the C's.

Not trading up to get Halliburton


I keep seeing people get mad at Ainge for not trading up. It takes two teams to trade. We heard all week leading up to the draft that he was trying to trade up but nothing materialized. In fact, none of the teams with picks ahead of us ended up trading down, so I'm not sure we can label that a miss. At the end of the day, if teams aren't interested in trading back, there's nothing Ainge can do.
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PG: Kyrie Irving/Patty Mills/Jalen Brunson
SG: OG Anunoby/Norman Powell/Matisse Thybulle
SF: Gordon Hayward/Demar Derozan
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Robert Covington
C: Kristaps Porzingis/Bobby Portis/James Wiseman

Offline ederson

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You can't lose Irving, Rozier, Hayward, Morris and Horford for nothing in less than a 2-year-span and say that you didn't make some big mistakes in the process.

To me the biggest misses were:

Signing Kemba instead of Brogdon, and I don't even know if Brogdon would have had interest in the C's.

Not trading up to get Halliburton


I keep seeing people get mad at Ainge for not trading up. It takes two teams to trade. We heard all week leading up to the draft that he was trying to trade up but nothing materialized. In fact, none of the teams with picks ahead of us ended up trading down, so I'm not sure we can label that a miss. At the end of the day, if teams aren't interested in trading back, there's nothing Ainge can do.

we could overpay to trade up and whine about that instead. either way its lose - lose situation for the guy that takes decisions and win-win for the couch -gms

Offline RJ87

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You can't lose Irving, Rozier, Hayward, Morris and Horford for nothing in less than a 2-year-span and say that you didn't make some big mistakes in the process.

To me the biggest misses were:

Signing Kemba instead of Brogdon, and I don't even know if Brogdon would have had interest in the C's.

Not trading up to get Halliburton


I keep seeing people get mad at Ainge for not trading up. It takes two teams to trade. We heard all week leading up to the draft that he was trying to trade up but nothing materialized. In fact, none of the teams with picks ahead of us ended up trading down, so I'm not sure we can label that a miss. At the end of the day, if teams aren't interested in trading back, there's nothing Ainge can do.

we could overpay to trade up and whine about that instead. either way its lose - lose situation for the guy that takes decisions and win-win for the couch -gms

Exactly. People are going to complain regardless and I know that on some level. I just think this particular criticism is annoying. I could understand it if there was more movement in the draft ahead of our pick, but there was none which suggests that those teams didn't want to move back. Sometimes, that's the way it goes.
2021 Houston Rockets
PG: Kyrie Irving/Patty Mills/Jalen Brunson
SG: OG Anunoby/Norman Powell/Matisse Thybulle
SF: Gordon Hayward/Demar Derozan
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Robert Covington
C: Kristaps Porzingis/Bobby Portis/James Wiseman