Trade Deadline Predictions

[Celtics2021]

Guess it’s final:

Pacers get Siakam
Toronto gets Brown, Nwara, Kira Lewis (pelicans) & 3 firsts
New Orleans ?

Just a salary dump for NOP apparetnly:

Per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the New Orleans Pelicans will also be involved in the deal. By adding Lewis to the deal, New Orleans allowed Indiana to match Siakam’s salary without including another player, per Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. The move puts the Pelicans in position to get below the luxury tax threshold.

That doesn't make any sense. Toronto can send out more salary than they bring in, it doesn't need to match on their end, and adding Kira Lewis doesn't increase the salary that Indiana is sending out (which does need to match the incoming salary). Someone has some wires crossed here

I don't understand the technicalities either.  There must be some way that Lewis to IND was a separate trade and then he was included in the deal for Siakam to make the salaries work.  I didn't think you could combine things in that way but there must be a loop hole that they exploited.

It’s possible Indiana was under the cap prior to the trade.  If so, they can acquire a player and immediately aggregate him, as that prohibition only applies to teams over the cap.

[keevsnick]

Guess it’s final:

Pacers get Siakam
Toronto gets Brown, Nwara, Kira Lewis (pelicans) & 3 firsts
New Orleans ?

Just a salary dump for NOP apparetnly:

Per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the New Orleans Pelicans will also be involved in the deal. By adding Lewis to the deal, New Orleans allowed Indiana to match Siakam’s salary without including another player, per Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. The move puts the Pelicans in position to get below the luxury tax threshold.

That doesn't make any sense. Toronto can send out more salary than they bring in, it doesn't need to match on their end, and adding Kira Lewis doesn't increase the salary that Indiana is sending out (which does need to match the incoming salary). Someone has some wires crossed here

I don't understand the technicalities either.  There must be some way that Lewis to IND was a separate trade and then he was included in the deal for Siakam to make the salaries work.  I didn't think you could combine things in that way but there must be a loop hole that they exploited.

It’s possible Indiana was under the cap prior to the trade.  If so, they can acquire a player and immediately aggregate him, as that prohibition only applies to teams over the cap.

Ya this is what happened. IND was operating as under the cap, got Lewis and a 2nd rounder for taking him, re-aggregated him as Part f the Siakam trade.

[Who]

Indiana became a big dark horse to steal the east.

Do they even  have a top 15 player right now?I think Halliburton will become that but is not there yet. They also need a lot of defensive improvement from some of their young guys. Probably a lot more realistic next year.

I have Haliburton over Steph as the best PG in the league today. Definite top 10 player. Just outside the top 5.

Let's Jokic, Embiid, Luka, Giannis, Tatum. Maybe Durant. Haliburton. Steph. SGA.

Not sure who my #10 is. I could go in a few different directions.

[keevsnick]

Toronto:

-Gets a 24' first that will be the worst out of LAC/UTAH/OKC/HOU so likely either the LAC or OKC pick in the mid to late twenties.
-Gets a 24' IND first that will probably be in the early twenties or late teens (top 3 protected).
-Gets a 26' IND first (top 4 protected). Haliburton is already signed for that year and will be 26 that season. Siakam if he re-signs will be 31 that season. So IND will probably still be a solid team if Siakam returns.
-Gets Bruce Brown. He makes 22.5 this year and has a TO for next year at the same number. Good player, could help some contenders. Maybe able to spin him off for more assets before the deadline.

Note: Toronto probably regrets giving a 24' first to SAS for Poltl, that's only top 6 protected. They coudl end up giving like the 7th or 8th pick to SAS this year given it will be VERY tough to catch the bottom 5 teams in a tank race.

Indiana:
-Gets Siakam who will be a unrestricted free agent and will turn 30 in April. He is no longer super max eligible. Indiana will be able to offer him a full max projected 5 years at 248 million this off season. Any other team would be limited to about 4/184 or so. So IND for sure has an advantage in re-signing him.
-He's a god fit there. His major weakness is three point shooting but having a shooting center in turner helps a a lot.

New Orleans:
-Dumping Kira Lewis gets them under the tax, one of two teams to have NEVER paid the luxury tax.

[keevsnick]

Indiana became a big dark horse to steal the east.

Do they even  have a top 15 player right now?I think Halliburton will become that but is not there yet. They also need a lot of defensive improvement from some of their young guys. Probably a lot more realistic next year.

I have Haliburton over Steph as the best PG in the league today. Definite top 10 player. Just outside the top 5.

Ya I think Haliburton has been, at bare minimum, a top 15 player this year. He's been a top five offensive player for sure given his efficiency, spacing, passing and low turnover rate. Guy is the engine to the best offense in league history and its not like they have A TON of other great offensive players.

[BitterJim]

Guess it’s final:

Pacers get Siakam
Toronto gets Brown, Nwara, Kira Lewis (pelicans) & 3 firsts
New Orleans ?

Just a salary dump for NOP apparetnly:

Per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the New Orleans Pelicans will also be involved in the deal. By adding Lewis to the deal, New Orleans allowed Indiana to match Siakam’s salary without including another player, per Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. The move puts the Pelicans in position to get below the luxury tax threshold.

That doesn't make any sense. Toronto can send out more salary than they bring in, it doesn't need to match on their end, and adding Kira Lewis doesn't increase the salary that Indiana is sending out (which does need to match the incoming salary). Someone has some wires crossed here

I don't understand the technicalities either.  There must be some way that Lewis to IND was a separate trade and then he was included in the deal for Siakam to make the salaries work.  I didn't think you could combine things in that way but there must be a loop hole that they exploited.

It’s possible Indiana was under the cap prior to the trade.  If so, they can acquire a player and immediately aggregate him, as that prohibition only applies to teams over the cap.

Ya this is what happened. IND was operating as under the cap, got Lewis and a 2nd rounder for taking him, re-aggregated him as Part f the Siakam trade.

TPs to both of you, that explains it.

It's honestly really impressive that Indiana is in the playoff race while under the cap (or at least close enough for this trade)

[Birdman]

Think Celtics will wait for buyout candidates..is deadline to sign someone to be eligible for playoffs March 1st?

[Vermont Green]

Guess it’s final:

Pacers get Siakam
Toronto gets Brown, Nwara, Kira Lewis (pelicans) & 3 firsts
New Orleans ?

Just a salary dump for NOP apparetnly:

Per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the New Orleans Pelicans will also be involved in the deal. By adding Lewis to the deal, New Orleans allowed Indiana to match Siakam’s salary without including another player, per Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. The move puts the Pelicans in position to get below the luxury tax threshold.

That doesn't make any sense. Toronto can send out more salary than they bring in, it doesn't need to match on their end, and adding Kira Lewis doesn't increase the salary that Indiana is sending out (which does need to match the incoming salary). Someone has some wires crossed here

I don't understand the technicalities either.  There must be some way that Lewis to IND was a separate trade and then he was included in the deal for Siakam to make the salaries work.  I didn't think you could combine things in that way but there must be a loop hole that they exploited.

It’s possible Indiana was under the cap prior to the trade.  If so, they can acquire a player and immediately aggregate him, as that prohibition only applies to teams over the cap.

Ya this is what happened. IND was operating as under the cap, got Lewis and a 2nd rounder for taking him, re-aggregated him as Part f the Siakam trade.

TPs to both of you, that explains it.

It's honestly really impressive that Indiana is in the playoff race while under the cap (or at least close enough for this trade)

The Pacers must have also had a free roster spot to take in Lewis.  Right now they are at 13 including Siakam.  The trade was a net -2 players so adding Lewis took them from 14 to 15, the trade back down to 13.  This shows the value of having a spare roster spot.

I didn't know that the rule about aggregating a recently traded player only applied to teams over the cap.  There is always something.

[Celtics2021]

Looking at the Raptors side of the deal some more, I wonder how far into tank-mode they’ll go this year.  They owe the Spurs a top-6 protected pick in June.  They’re only a game off the 6th worst record, which would give them about a 54% chance of losing the pick.  They’re much further off the Blazers for the 5th worst record, but a good tank job could get them there with a half-season to go, dropping the odds to about 36% that they’d lose the pick.

Alternatively they could keep hovering around the play-in game, since it doesn’t hurt them too much if they miss it.  But I think they’d be better served by moving whatever else they can to give them a better chance to keep their pick and reset the roster.

[liam]

Looking at the Raptors side of the deal some more, I wonder how far into tank-mode they’ll go this year.  They owe the Spurs a top-6 protected pick in June.  They’re only a game off the 6th worst record, which would give them about a 54% chance of losing the pick.  They’re much further off the Blazers for the 5th worst record, but a good tank job could get them there with a half-season to go, dropping the odds to about 36% that they’d lose the pick.

Alternatively they could keep hovering around the play-in game, since it doesn’t hurt them too much if they miss it.  But I think they’d be better served by moving whatever else they can to give them a better chance to keep their pick and reset the roster.

Do the Raptors buy out Thaddeus Young, Chris Boucher or Otto Porter Jr.?

[Celtics2021]

Looking at the Raptors side of the deal some more, I wonder how far into tank-mode they’ll go this year.  They owe the Spurs a top-6 protected pick in June.  They’re only a game off the 6th worst record, which would give them about a 54% chance of losing the pick.  They’re much further off the Blazers for the 5th worst record, but a good tank job could get them there with a half-season to go, dropping the odds to about 36% that they’d lose the pick.

Alternatively they could keep hovering around the play-in game, since it doesn’t hurt them too much if they miss it.  But I think they’d be better served by moving whatever else they can to give them a better chance to keep their pick and reset the roster.

Do the Raptors buy out Thaddeus Young, Chris Boucher or Otto Porter Jr.?

Boucher has another year on his deal, so not him, but yes to the other 2 if they aren’t moved.

[Moranis]

Maybe Toronto instead of tanking, uses the assets to add to their team.  Like maybe they go get Keldon Johnson or Dejunte Murray (or something like that).  They don't own their pick, so why not try to win and add someone that fits with Barnes and Barrett long term.

[footey]

Wonder if Denver will try to get Bruce Brown back, with salary filler and draft picks?  They seem to really miss him.

[liam]

Maybe Toronto instead of tanking, uses the assets to add to their team.  Like maybe they go get Keldon Johnson or Dejunte Murray (or something like that).  They don't own their pick, so why not try to win and add someone that fits with Barnes and Barrett long term.

Are there protections on that pick?

[liam]

I read the Knicks are looking to get rid of Quentin Grimes. I'd trade three second round picks for him.