Author Topic: Building around Tatum and Brown is a Mistake  (Read 11845 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Building around Tatum and Brown is a Mistake
« on: October 23, 2020, 11:03:35 AM »

Offline droopdog7

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6970
  • Tommy Points: 466
I don’t think these guys will be good enough to carry this team to championships in and of themselves.  I don’t think their respective ceilings are as high as others around here.  I don’t see Tatum as mvp level and I don’t see brown as perineal all star. 

I see that DA is trying.  We have all star kemba and pretty good Hayward (when healthy).  But those guys are older and wouldn't be here during much of their peak.  And, that was good enough for third in the east and only half way to a title.  That’s not good enough.

People forget that Washington made it to the eastern conference final with wall and Beal.  Lillard and McCollum have been very successful in portland but haven’t really been good enough.  That’s the level more of less I see for Tatum and brown.

As Hayward and kemba go by the wayside, money could be tight which means that they might just have “guys” around them.  I’m okay with playing out this year just to see.  But if it doesn’t work out, championships will ultimately rely on fliping brown for a true star and hope that works. 
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 02:23:31 PM by Redz »

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 11:52:09 AM »

Offline jambr380

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13002
  • Tommy Points: 1756
  • Everybody knows what's best for you
I will tell you right now that this is going to be a pretty unpopular take. Assuming Tatum and Brown have already reached their ceiling is a mistake. Other than Luka, Giannis, and maybe Zion, who else would really be above Tatum on the 'if you were to start a team' conversation? Brown essentially blew up this past season - so much so that he could have won MIP. And this was after he signed his big contract. I understand possibly flipping Brown for one of the players I listed above, but elite two-way wings don't grow on trees.

And that I think is your biggest mistake in comparing them to Wall-Beal and Lillard-McCollum. Not only are all of those guys very one-dimensional, but they are all exclusively guards. If you were complaining about building around Kemba, then you would have a point, but we are the envy of pretty much every NBA team out there right now. How many teams have guys like Kemba and Hayward who are essentially just supporting players?

I understand that you maybe apprehensive about the ceilings of Tatum and Brown, but you really shouldn't be. We may never win a Title, but with 30 teams in the league, that is very difficult to do. And it won't be because Tatum and Brown aren't good enough.

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 12:02:03 PM »

Offline footey

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15965
  • Tommy Points: 1833
I don’t think these guys will be good enough to carry this team to championships in and of themselves.  I don’t think their respective ceilings are as high as others around here.  I don’t see Tatum as mvp level and I don’t see brown as perineal all star. 

I see that DA is trying.  We have all star kemba and pretty good Hayward (when healthy).  But those guys are older and wouldn't be here during much of their peak.  And, that was good enough for third in the east and only half way to a title.  That’s not good enough.

People forget that Washington made it to the eastern conference final with wall and Beal.  Lillard and McCollum have been very successful in portland but haven’t really been good enough.  That’s the level more of less I see for Tatum and brown.

As Hayward and kemba go by the wayside, money could be tight which means that they might just have “guys” around them.  I’m okay with playing out this year just to see.  But if it doesn’t work out, championships will ultimately rely on fliping brown for a true star and hope that works.

Wall and Beal did not make it to ECF; they made it to semi-finals.  A team led by the two Jays made the ECF 2 out of 3 seasons.

But I think you still have a point that needs to be discussed:  Can Jayson and Jaylen be the two best players on a championship team?

I vacillate on the answer to that question.  I think it depends on how much more growth we will get from them.  Right now, the answer seems to be they are not good enough.  Although even that is tough to say. Had we not had the Hayward injury, had Kemba been 100%, a good case can be made for us getting into the finals and playing the Lakers tougher than an injury plagued Heat squad.


Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 12:02:42 PM »

Offline droopdog7

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6970
  • Tommy Points: 466
I will tell you right now that this is going to be a pretty unpopular take. Assuming Tatum and Brown have already reached their ceiling is a mistake. Other than Luka, Giannis, and maybe Zion, who else would really be above Tatum on the 'if you were to start a team' conversation? Brown essentially blew up this past season - so much so that he could have won MIP. And this was after he signed his big contract. I understand possibly flipping Brown for one of the players I listed above, but elite two-way wings don't grow on trees.

And that I think is your biggest mistake in comparing them to Wall-Beal and Lillard-McCollum. Not only are all of those guys very one-dimensional, but they are all exclusively guards. If you were complaining about building around Kemba, then you would have a point, but we are the envy of pretty much every NBA team out there right now. How many teams have guys like Kemba and Hayward who are essentially just supporting players?

I understand that you maybe apprehensive about the ceilings of Tatum and Brown, but you really shouldn't be. We may never win a Title, but with 30 teams in the league, that is very difficult to do. And it won't be because Tatum and Brown aren't good enough.
Yeah, I'm aware that this this will not be popular.  And obviously I would be wrong. 

As to you points, I think my very best take is the comparisons to Beal and Wall and Lillard and McCollum.  That's the level is guys I think we have.  Sure, Brown and Tatum are different players that those guys but I think the tandems are comparable.  I'm especially bearish on Brown who would be on the lower end of the twos in those groups.  Better defender than those guys but worst offensive player/playmaker of the entire bunch (at his peak).

As we go down this road guys like Kemba and Hayward will fall off (either figuratively or literally) and how to we replace them?  If we end up with just guys, and that's all we have at this point, I see us following a similar to all the teams that have been built on two pretty good guys (though tatum has a chance to be better).

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 12:07:37 PM »

Offline droopdog7

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6970
  • Tommy Points: 466
I don’t think these guys will be good enough to carry this team to championships in and of themselves.  I don’t think their respective ceilings are as high as others around here.  I don’t see Tatum as mvp level and I don’t see brown as perineal all star. 

I see that DA is trying.  We have all star kemba and pretty good Hayward (when healthy).  But those guys are older and wouldn't be here during much of their peak.  And, that was good enough for third in the east and only half way to a title.  That’s not good enough.

People forget that Washington made it to the eastern conference final with wall and Beal.  Lillard and McCollum have been very successful in portland but haven’t really been good enough.  That’s the level more of less I see for Tatum and brown.

As Hayward and kemba go by the wayside, money could be tight which means that they might just have “guys” around them.  I’m okay with playing out this year just to see.  But if it doesn’t work out, championships will ultimately rely on fliping brown for a true star and hope that works.

Wall and Beal did not make it to ECF; they made it to semi-finals.  A team led by the two Jays made the ECF 2 out of 3 seasons.

But I think you still have a point that needs to be discussed:  Can Jayson and Jaylen be the two best players on a championship team?

I vacillate on the answer to that question.  I think it depends on how much more growth we will get from them.  Right now, the answer seems to be they are not good enough.  Although even that is tough to say. Had we not had the Hayward injury, had Kemba been 100%, a good case can be made for us getting into the finals and playing the Lakers tougher than an injury plagued Heat squad.
Thanks for the correction on Wash.  To your point, I think next year will tell us everything we need to know.  Kemba shouls still be good, as should hayward (should he still be here).  Assuming no major injuries, this could be the best collection of talent around the Jays.  I'd say it's championship series or bust.  If we don't make it, and we might not given Mil and perhaps Mia, then I'm searching for a way to break the ceiling.

Of course, this ignores actually winning the title, which may not happen regardless.

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 12:10:33 PM »

Offline jambr380

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13002
  • Tommy Points: 1756
  • Everybody knows what's best for you
Well, to be fair, almost any team out there would be screwed with just two guys and a bunch of fodder. Obviously the exception to this was this year's Lakers team, but I think there were extenuating circumstances with the bubble, additional time off to get healthy, and other teams who just weren't able to hold up mentally or physically(injuries). We are also talking about a top 5 all-time player in Lebron. Hopefully Danny will continue to build around Tatum and Brown, rather than just making poor draft choices and signing washed-up minimum players.

I do disagree with your comparisons of Tatum-Brown with the WAS and POR duos due to their two-way play. I would say it's more like Kemba-Brown with a bonus Tatum - which none of those teams even came close to having (obv. since Tatum is our best player).

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 12:12:20 PM »

Online Donoghus

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30937
  • Tommy Points: 1607
  • What a Pub Should Be
Too early to tell. 

Neither of these kids are peaking yet.   They nearly made it to the Finals this year playing with a banged up & flawed squad.   Still really like this core's chances moving forward.


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 12:13:56 PM »

Offline Jvalin

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3737
  • Tommy Points: 737
I don’t see Tatum as mvp level
Tatum was one of the 12 players to receive a vote in the MVP race this season.



If the C's have a succesful 2020/21 regular season, I fully expect Tatum to be in the MVP conversation next season. Imo, he's already the best small-ball PF in the NBA (given that LeBron ain't playing at PF).
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 12:20:22 PM by Jvalin »

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 12:25:51 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12749
  • Tommy Points: 1544
I don’t see Tatum as mvp level
Tatum was one of the 12 players to receive a vote in the MVP race this season.



If the C's have a succesful 2020/21 regular season, I fully expect Tatum to be in the MVP conversation next season. Imo, he's already the best small-ball PF in the NBA (given that LeBron ain't playing at PF).

Better than Giannis? Also, isn't Tatum just a 'PF'? I don't think the small-ball moniker is necessary anymore given Tatum's 'type' seems to be the norm for the position these days.

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 12:28:22 PM »

Offline wiley

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4849
  • Tommy Points: 386
Didn't Tatum just do some all time playoff numbers considering his age? 

Anyway, my opinion is that this is silly take, not just because Jaylen and Jason are still so young, but because the truth is they DON'T have to win the championship by themselves.  There will be three other starters and a bench helping them along.

Question:  how old was each of the Detroit Piston players that beat Shaq and Kobe in the finals (and then should have won another title but got a little cocky or just didn't have the luck).

Were any of Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace or Sheed still in their 20's?  I'm not going to look it up, but I will venture a guess that none of them were below 29, if even below 30. Maybe Billups was still 28 or so?

In any case, neither Jason nor Jaylen would be traded at their current age and level for any single member of that Detroit team.

Then, look how close Miami just got.  One can argue that without the Dragic injury, and 2 games without Bam, they might have done it.

Would you trade Jason Tatum for any member of that Heat team?  I wouldn't.  Some might consider Jaylen Brown for Bam, but I personally wouldn't do that one either.  Nor would I trade either for Butler.  I agree that there is and has been too much superstar talk surrounding them.  This is not helpful, but they could win a title without being as good Lebron, Giannis or Doncic.  And the fact that the J's are a tandem will only help their cause.

Be patient OP! 

As Jambr380 said, the J's may never win a title with the C's, but it won't be their fault.  People do make the error of thinking titles are easier than they actually are.  Just plug in x and y and you'll have a title.  Nope.  It's never that simple unless you're talking adding a Durant level player to the team that just broke the regular season win record. 
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 01:05:17 PM by wiley »

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 12:30:07 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12749
  • Tommy Points: 1544
Even as someone who dislikes Jaylen Brown, I can't agree with the sentiment in the OP.  He's one of the best young, two-way wings in the league.  And Tatum appears to be one of the few ahead of him.  Tatum/Brown is definitely a foundation worth building upon.

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 12:33:47 PM »

Offline keevsnick

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5515
  • Tommy Points: 549
I think if you have one wing playing at an all-nba level, one wing playing at an all star level, both 23 and at least one already on a below market contract that's about as good a situation to build around as you will get.

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2020, 12:45:48 PM »

Offline Jvalin

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3737
  • Tommy Points: 737
I don’t see Tatum as mvp level
Tatum was one of the 12 players to receive a vote in the MVP race this season.



If the C's have a succesful 2020/21 regular season, I fully expect Tatum to be in the MVP conversation next season. Imo, he's already the best small-ball PF in the NBA (given that LeBron ain't playing at PF).

Better than Giannis? Also, isn't Tatum just a 'PF'? I don't think the small-ball moniker is necessary anymore given Tatum's 'type' seems to be the norm for the position these days.
Giannis is 6'11. He ain't a small-ball PF. There are still plenty of teams using a big man at PF: Bucks (Giannis), Lakers (AD), Mavs (Porzingis), Pacers (Sabonis), Grizzlies (JJJ), Bulls (Markkanen) to name some of them.

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2020, 01:00:01 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Even if you're right ,what's the alternative?

We spent most of a decade in asset acquisition mode waiting for a major trade to happen.

The time to turn Brown and Tatum into a super-mega-duper-star has come and gone now that Brown is on a big contract and Tatum is about to get megabucks.  Besides, it looks like it's going to be at least a year or two before another major star becomes available outside of UFA.


I'm 100% OK with seeing what these two can do.  If they fall short, so be it.  The alternative as I see it is either outright tanking or more "two steps forward, three steps sideways, another step forward, a few steps back" all in the hopes that 5-6 moves down the line we MIGHT be able to trade for the next guy who becomes available and then we MIGHT be able to convince that guy to stick around for more than one season.


I've reached the conclusion that in the modern NBA, you can't really engineer your team to end up with a perennial MVP candidate.  Not unless you're in a glamour market and your team gets taken over by a player agency controlled by the biggest name in the game.  At best you might get a guy like that for one season, and spending a decade building so you can contend for one season is not appealing to me.

I think the core of this Celtics team is pretty close to the best you can hope to end up with via shrewd, careful team building strategy.  To do better than this requires luck (i.e. the guy you take in the draft who you think is going to be very good turns out to be GREAT) or it requires you to be in a market that 28 year old MVPs want to play in after they're done with their tour of duty in a small market.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Building around Tatum and brown is a mistake
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2020, 01:05:44 PM »

Offline CFAN38

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4878
  • Tommy Points: 420
I will tell you right now that this is going to be a pretty unpopular take. Assuming Tatum and Brown have already reached their ceiling is a mistake. Other than Luka, Giannis, and maybe Zion, who else would really be above Tatum on the 'if you were to start a team' conversation? Brown essentially blew up this past season - so much so that he could have won MIP. And this was after he signed his big contract. I understand possibly flipping Brown for one of the players I listed above, but elite two-way wings don't grow on trees.

And that I think is your biggest mistake in comparing them to Wall-Beal and Lillard-McCollum. Not only are all of those guys very one-dimensional, but they are all exclusively guards. If you were complaining about building around Kemba, then you would have a point, but we are the envy of pretty much every NBA team out there right now. How many teams have guys like Kemba and Hayward who are essentially just supporting players?

I understand that you maybe apprehensive about the ceilings of Tatum and Brown, but you really shouldn't be. We may never win a Title, but with 30 teams in the league, that is very difficult to do. And it won't be because Tatum and Brown aren't good enough.
Yeah, I'm aware that this this will not be popular.  And obviously I would be wrong. 

As to you points, I think my very best take is the comparisons to Beal and Wall and Lillard and McCollum.  That's the level is guys I think we have.  Sure, Brown and Tatum are different players that those guys but I think the tandems are comparable.  I'm especially bearish on Brown who would be on the lower end of the twos in those groups.  Better defender than those guys but worst offensive player/playmaker of the entire bunch (at his peak).

As we go down this road guys like Kemba and Hayward will fall off (either figuratively or literally) and how to we replace them?  If we end up with just guys, and that's all we have at this point, I see us following a similar to all the teams that have been built on two pretty good guys (though tatum has a chance to be better).

Size and defense are major variables when comparing Tatum and Brown to Wall/Beal or Lillard/McCollum. As building blocks its relatively easy to find a starting PG to pair with Tatum and Brown and even easier to construct a big man by committee rotation. Wings are the most valuable position in the NBA and having young talent with positional size on the wing is instantly more valuable then the guards you compare them too.   
Mavs
Wiz
Hornet