Help me out here: If we lose to the Steelers, could we end up as the third seed and not get that first-round bye?
Assume we lost to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville wins the next three. Both division leaders end up as 12-4.
Best as I can tell, here are the tie-breakers:
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/12/21/7345673/nfl-playoff-tiebreaker-rules-procedure-2014-afc-nfc
We both go 5-1 in the division.
Next tiebreaker is common games. We beat the Jets, but they beat the Steelers. We end up tied there.
In conference, though, we'll be 7-3, while they're 8-2.
Am I using the wrong tie-breakers, or is this a legit possibility?
Mike
Not sure if you have it right, but I'd rather see the Pats NOT get a first-round bye; seems like the extra time off usually doesn't help them play better.
All 5 of their Super Bowl wins have come with a first round bye. All 7 appearances under Belichick have come with a 1st round bye. You absolutely want the bye. It's one less game to play. Less wear & tear.
Well, they've also been knocked out of the playoffs, either one or two weeks after having a bye, in 4 of the last 7 years (’10, ’12, ’13, ’15). I agree that more rest, less wear and tear, and more prep time
generally are good things, but it often doesn't equate to wins for the Patriots.
I'm certain Brady is playing injured. He's fallen on his throwing arm a million times, and he's been flexing his hand/wrist for weeks now. He also missed 2 days of practice this week.
It's really unfortunate we traded Garoppolo, because even though there's no dropoff skill-wise for Brady, I'd wager a guess that his body won't hold up even until the end of next season.
Yeah, he's been getting pounded pretty good most of the season, which doesn't bode well.
Van Noy and Flowers are massive losses.
Not that worried. Win the next 3 games and you are the 1 seed.
I'm pretty concerned they'll lose to Pittsburgh next week. They get Gronk back, which should help, but the Steelers just put up 39 points against a Ravens D that's been quite a bit better than New England's for most of the season. Then they host the Bills and Jets, two teams they should beat—but that's what I said about Miami, too. The Jets game especially could be a trap—it's the last game of the season, at home, against a team that just lost its starting QB for the season; that has "Patriots loss" written all over it.
The Steelers put up 39 points on a great Ravens D but they also got torched by a mediocre Ravens offense.
Shazier is incredibly important to that defense. Without him they are a bad defensive team. Everything they did was built around his speed at linebacker.
The team is coming off a loss. Gronk should be extra fresh. Hopefully Flowers, Van Noy and Waddle are back. Dont see a reason to panic. They played a bad game against a very fired up Dolphins team in Miami. Expect a comfortable win next week.
Yeah, the Steelers offense hasn't been anything special this season, despite still being ranked in the top 10 (they've given up tons of big plays), but the Miami defense has been considerably worse (ranked No. 16 right now) and the Pats struggled to score 20 points against it. Gronk's absence was a big deal, but the team still has enough weapons that the offense shouldn't have struggled against Miami. Brady was off, and the only guys who didn't seem discombobulated were Burkhead and Lewis.
I certainly hope for a bounceback effort, but it's gonna be tough.