Author Topic: NBA Season 2018 - 2019  (Read 203177 times)

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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #675 on: December 11, 2018, 08:28:31 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #676 on: December 11, 2018, 08:43:40 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Bad look for PBRD
PBRD?

Come on, LB is just throwing out a gimme here: Premium Brand Ricky Davis, of course!  ;D


Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #677 on: December 11, 2018, 10:42:37 AM »

Offline apc

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So Rondo and Wade didn't exchange Jerseys?

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #678 on: December 11, 2018, 11:03:42 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #679 on: December 11, 2018, 11:39:07 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

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Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #680 on: December 11, 2018, 11:55:53 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I Agree to disagree Moranis

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #681 on: December 11, 2018, 12:16:51 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I Agree to disagree Moranis
with what exactly do you disagree?
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

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Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #682 on: December 11, 2018, 01:02:56 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Bad look for PBRD
PBRD?
Poor something Ricky Davis I think. It's LBs go to insult for Jimmy Butler

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #683 on: December 11, 2018, 01:07:11 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
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Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #684 on: December 11, 2018, 01:27:12 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I Agree to disagree Moranis
with what exactly do you disagree?

I disagree that minutes played are more important than age. At best, in my opinion, they are equal. At the end of the day we are still human beings subject to the process of aging and there is lots of data that shows the slight impact of aging each year every person lives. The minutes played would certainly be a confounding factor, but not the overwhelming factor that is more important than age. You also have the risk of injuries, and recovery time from said injuries as a big factor correlated with age. To be honest I have a really hard time believing that many general managers would view jimmy butler at age 34 as a lesser risk of drop off than Irving at 32 just because Irving had played 200 more minutes or whatever because of longer playoff runs. (I also have a pretty hard believing you believe this either). However if you really believe that minutes are more important than age I don’t think it is worth either of our time to argue about it because there is so much conflicting data and confounding factors the conversation will go nowhere useful

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #685 on: December 11, 2018, 03:10:09 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Poor something Ricky Davis I think. It's LBs go to insult for Jimmy Butler

Dude, you totally skipped my above answer and accompanying picture example. I was totally proud of my Kroger vs Kraft Mac n Cheese picture, too!  :P

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #686 on: December 11, 2018, 03:23:29 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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TP. Yup, I missed that.

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #687 on: December 11, 2018, 03:58:09 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

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Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #688 on: December 11, 2018, 05:56:12 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Didn’t jermaine O’Neal have very low minutes his first 3 years or so? I recall him rotting on the bench in Portland. It’s also a rather provocative thought if you think about it like this. If a player plays 36 minutes a game for all 82 games that is about 3000 minutes. Yet there are 325, 000 minutes in a year. This hypothesis is that the 3000 minutes of nba action outweigh the 295k minutes off the court that include practices, running, weight lifting, physical therapy, eating, sleeping, cross training. Olympic and international play etc? Man that’s really hard to believe

Re: NBA Season 2018 - 2019
« Reply #689 on: December 11, 2018, 07:31:36 PM »

Offline footey

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Jimmy butler injured his groin tonight. Note Jimmy is 29. A five year max would sign him through his age 34 season. For comparison deng is 33 now. Noah is 33 now and Rose is 30. Curse of thibs?
Butler has played 15820 regular season minutes and 1627 playoff minutes for 17447 total minutes.  As a comparison, that is less total minutes than Irving has played (17606).  Irving also has a far more extensive injury history.  I don't see too many people worried about signing Irving to a max contract. 

The concern with Thibs isn't so much after the players leave, it is Thibs getting them injured when they are still playing for him.  That is what derailed Noah and Rose.  Deng is on a whole other level when it comes to minutes (over 33000 total - 16th among active players in the regular season) and many of those pre-date Thibs.  He is just worn out.
Theee are definitely people worried about Irving being injury prone. Minutes aside I think the average person is also more worried about playing a player 30+ million at their age 34 seasons compared to their age 32 season. Feels like just being contrarion to argue this...
History has shown minutes, seasons, etc. are more critical to falling off a cliff then actual age (aside from injury of course).  That is why I never pay all that much attention to age as mileage is what matters most when talking about the end of a player's career (that is why I'm really concerned about Horford after this year as his mileage is building up).   

History also shows that while a younger player will likely develop more quickly and has a higher ceiling than an older player, that after 3 or 4 years in the league players are generally what they will be.  They will still improve, but it is almost always gradual and there are almost never huge jumps no matter their age once they hit that point (in the first few seasons huge jumps happen all the time).  That is why I pay less attention to age on players at the end of their rookie contracts as it generally makes no difference at that point.

I'd be curious to know what history you're referring to.
when the players started entering the league earlier, they also started to have their prime periods shift such that their prime starting age was reduced.  I mean look at Anthony and Wade.  Entered the league in the same year and started their decline in the same year, yet Wade is 3 years older than Anthony.  That decline started around year 12 for both players, which if you look at historically is when the vast majority of players really start to decline.  That matches many of the older players like Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, Pippen, Barkley, etc.  Now 12 years doesn't mean the same amount of minutes for everyone, but by and large most of the players were playing close to full seasons with a lot of minutes and a fair amount of playoff mileage.  Even many of the straight from high school players, like Jermaine O'Neal hold pretty firm in the 12 year range for their decline to start (JO was actually year 11 when he was 28).  Some players that don't get as much wear and tear early on last longer, and some guys buck the trend entirely (like James, maybe Durant who is in year 12 now), but by and large most players begin their decline around 12 seasons in and it really doesn't matter if they are 28 or 35.  Mileage on the body, not physical age, is the main determining factor.

Anecdotal at best. It doesn’t matter what you argue. The fact is that most if not all GMs are likely to value a younger player to an older one, everything else being equal.