2013 CB Draft: Western Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Oklahoma City(2)

[Lucky17]

Regarding Minnesota on Defense
Similar to my previous matchup, I plan on allowing Bradley to ravage Rose full-court while Ellis lurks off the ball looking to pick off passing lanes. Someone else had mentioned the possibility of James guarding Rose - an idea I thought of using on occasions (you stole my thunder). When Bradley comes out (and Korver/Chalmers/Battier and their 3-PT range subs in), James will take on Rose. He can match him athletically and has elite size to disrupt Rose from scoring efficiently.

Again, I wish we had real world evidence to draw on, so we could legitimately discuss how Bradley would "ravage" Rose full-court. It's probably just as likely that Rose crosses him up, and Bradley gets called for a couple cheap hand-check or blocking fouls, and has to sit for the next 10 minutes.

When Bradley is subbed out, we'll probably deploy Ben Gordon to act as a secondary facilitator for the offense. I don't think Ellis, Chalmers, or Korver will be able to guard Gordon very well. And if LeBron wants to expend his energy chasing Rose through screens, that's probably going to be reflected in his scoring sheet.

[Who]

I think Monta Ellis and Ben Gordon will be fairly neutral when matched up against one another. I don't believe either player can defend the other one.

[McHales Pits]

I'm not asking BBD to take 23 footers. I'm asking him to take 10-15 footers where he shoots about 40%. Every Celtics fan here knows the Davis is capable of hitting a mid-range jumper - especially uncontested if Howard isn't planning on leaving the paint.

Davis has given Howard fits in the past defensively because Howard is giving up 25 pounds to Davis. For Howard to be effective offensively, he needs to get into position for rolls, lobs, or easy hook shots. Davis and Jordan are different defenders to throw at him, but both have strengths. Davis has strength and quick hands while Jordan has the athleticism and shot blocking. Howard is no longer a player capable of 28 and 16 like in his prime - I expect 18-20 with 12 boards. My rotation hasn't changed that much. Before I posted, everyone was raving about my defensive versatility and was talking sweep. Then I give my back-up center a few more minutes per game and adjust my starting lineup and everything has changed? 22 minutes for Davis, 20 minutes for Jordan, 6 minutes for Ibaka when Howard is off the floor. That's a solid rotation against him...

[Lucky17]

I think Monta Ellis and Ben Gordon will be fairly neutral when matched up against one another. I don't believe either player can defend the other one.

Ah, but in this matchup Ellis guards Gordon, and Rose guards Monta.

Gordon will be guarding the sub for Bradley (Korver, Chalmers).

I'm not sure what Minnesota's lineup is like if Battier subs in for Bradley. Is LeBron the SG in that lineup?

[Who]

Starting Lineup

1 - Ellis
2 - Bradley
3 - James
4 - Ibaka
5 - Davis

I so hate when teams do gimmicky things like this.  BBD is a decent center off the bench when you need to body up post players, but why start him?

You're weakening your defense, your rebounding, your inside scoring and your athleticism...  for what reason?  To put in an inefficient jump-shooting power forward?

This strategy makes me seriously want to change my vote.  Your team's defense is good enough to win without resorting to gimmicks that no NBA coach would.

Ditto

[Lucky17]

I'm not asking BBD to take 23 footers. I'm asking him to take 10-15 footers where he shoots about 40%. Every Celtics fan here knows the Davis is capable of hitting a mid-range jumper - especially uncontested if Howard isn't planning on leaving the paint.

Sure. Except look at those numbers for Davis. He's averaging 1 or 2 attempts a game in the 10-15 foot range, because he prefers those longer shots (twice as many attempts) that he hits at a much lower clip.

I want Davis shooting jumpers against us.

[Roy H.]

I'm not asking BBD to take 23 footers. I'm asking him to take 10-15 footers where he shoots about 40%. Every Celtics fan here knows the Davis is capable of hitting a mid-range jumper - especially uncontested if Howard isn't planning on leaving the paint.

Davis has given Howard fits in the past defensively because Howard is giving up 25 pounds to Davis. For Howard to be effective offensively, he needs to get into position for rolls, lobs, or easy hook shots. Davis and Jordan are different defenders to throw at him, but both have strengths. Davis has strength and quick hands while Jordan has the athleticism and shot blocking. Howard is no longer a player capable of 28 and 16 like in his prime - I expect 18-20 with 12 boards. My rotation hasn't changed that much. Before I posted, everyone was raving about my defensive versatility and was talking sweep. Then I give my back-up center a few more minutes per game and adjust my starting lineup and everything has changed? 22 minutes for Davis, 20 minutes for Jordan, 6 minutes for Ibaka when Howard is off the floor. That's a solid rotation against him...

This is an unfortunate strategy.  Howard isn't even going to bother defending BBD and his 39.5% 10-to-15 foot jumper.

Allowing Howard to improvise and focus solely on cutting off penetration is about the worst strategic decision I've seen in this game so far (with all due respect).

The good news is, there's no shame in changing your mind.  At least Jordan requires Howard to put a body on him.

[Who]

I think Monta Ellis and Ben Gordon will be fairly neutral when matched up against one another. I don't believe either player can defend the other one.

Ah, but in this matchup Ellis guards Gordon, and Rose guards Monta.

Gordon will be guarding the sub for Bradley (Korver, Chalmers).

I'm not sure what Minnesota's lineup is like if Battier subs in for Bradley. Is LeBron the SG in that lineup?

Oh yeah, I forgot you wrote that earlier (Rose on Monta). That helps. That would give you a pretty big advantage in the backcourt.

Rose > Monta
B.Gordon > Bradley or Chalmers or Korver or CJ Miles or Battier

[McHales Pits]

A shift of 4 MPG from Jordan to Davis shouldn't be a series altering move that sways your vote IMO. That's all I'm suggesting. I want Davis a little more in this series because of his floor spreading and historical defense on Howard. Jordan will still play, too.

[Roy H.]

A shift of 4 MPG from Jordan to Davis shouldn't be a series altering move that sways your vote IMO. That's all I'm suggesting. I want Davis a little more in this series because of his floor spreading and historical defense on Howard. Jordan will still play, too.

Jordan should start, and should be the primary defender on Howard.  Like I said, otherwise it weakens your offense, your defense, your efficiency, your rebounding, and your athleticism.

[Lucky17]

I've got to run, but I hope people who are still undecided (or just like discussing this matchup) will continue to post questions. I'll be back later on tonight to answer them as best I can.

[Who]

A shift of 4 MPG from Jordan to Davis shouldn't be a series altering move that sways your vote IMO. That's all I'm suggesting. I want Davis a little more in this series because of his floor spreading and historical defense on Howard. Jordan will still play, too.

I think you need 30-35mpg from DeAndre Jordan against D-Howard.

[fitzhickey]

A shift of 4 MPG from Jordan to Davis shouldn't be a series altering move that sways your vote IMO. That's all I'm suggesting. I want Davis a little more in this series because of his floor spreading and historical defense on Howard. Jordan will still play, too.

I think you need 30-35mpg from DeAndre Jordan against D-Howard.

Agreed. BBD weakens your team vastly

[Who]

Main Unit

Rose > Monta
B.Gordon > Avery
Shumpert << LeBron
T.Gibson < Ibaka
D.Howard >> BBD

Alternates

Maynor < Chalmers
Fields < CJ Miles
Budinger = Korver
Haslem < Battier
Mahinmi = D.Jordan

Coach

M.Brown < N.McMillan

Summary

I think OKC's main unit has a good advantage over Minny's if BBD is starting but I worry about the players Minny still has on their bench and how the game changes once those bench players start coming in for both sides.

[McHales Pits]

Roy and Who-

Thanks for your takes, but I respectfully disagree. Davis has had more playoff experience, has had individual defensive success against Howard, and has a nice mid-range game that can give us options offensively. I'm not advocating taking all of Jordan's time away - I'm advocating an even split between the two of them. Fortunately, I have the luxury of having two guys to throw at him in case one struggles. From an alternative standpoint, OKC has no one that can guard LeBron. I have multiple guys to throw at OKCs best players. I appreciate your repeated opposing arguments, but it is my team and my decision - disagree if you wish.

My team has the best player, more defensive versatility, more depth, and better floor spacing.

Oh and PS: it's not 2009 anymore, Ben Gordon is a shell of his former self.