2013 CB Draft: Western Finals: Minnesota(1) vs Oklahoma City(2)

[Lucky17]

Also, this may be a series where Patrick Patterson may see a slight increase in minutes, for his ability to spread the floor a bit (and draw Ibaka out). Debating how best to employ/complement his skill set.

I think that would work extremely well (Patterson vs Ibaka).

Edit: Hmm, maybe not. I would be worried about how you contain LeBron without a 2nd shot-blocker alongside Dwight Howard. Howard by himself hasn't slowed down LeBron much in the past. Unsure. How well could Shumpert defend LeBron?

I think Shumpert demonstrated last year that he's capable of guarding bigger, stronger SFs. LeBron is blessed with atypical speed for his size as well, so Shump will have his hands full. I think Shumpert's quickness will acquit him well though.

My main goal isn't to shut down LeBron (a fool's errand, really), although I do hope that Shumpert can somewhat deter his forays into the paint, and that the combined defense/shotblocking of Gibson and Dwight can also have some effect. Rather, I want LeBron to settle for jumpers and limit LeBron's teammates, particularly Ellis, and to a lesser degree Ibaka, from having easy looks.

In a word, I want to make the Wolves beat us from the perimeter. A familiar refrain, I know.

[Who]

Also, this may be a series where Patrick Patterson may see a slight increase in minutes, for his ability to spread the floor a bit (and draw Ibaka out). Debating how best to employ/complement his skill set.

I think that would work extremely well (Patterson vs Ibaka).

Edit: Hmm, maybe not. I would be worried about how you contain LeBron without a 2nd shot-blocker alongside Dwight Howard. Howard by himself hasn't slowed down LeBron much in the past. Unsure. How well could Shumpert defend LeBron?

I think Shumpert demonstrated last year that he's capable of guarding bigger, stronger SFs. LeBron is blessed with atypical speed for his size as well, so Shump will have his hands full. I think Shumpert's quickness will acquit him well though.

My main goal isn't to shut down LeBron (a fool's errand, really), although I do hope that Shumpert can somewhat deter his forays into the paint, and that the combined defense/shotblocking of Gibson and Dwight can also have some effect. Rather, I want LeBron to settle for jumpers and limit LeBron's teammates, particularly Ellis, and to a lesser degree Ibaka, from having easy looks.

In a word, I want to make the Wolves beat us from the perimeter. A familiar refrain, I know.

I thought Shumpert did extremely well on Pierce and showed much improvement in his ability to defend SFs who are bigger than him ... but there is Pierce (6-6, 230lbs) and then there is LeBron (6-9, 270lbs).

Of the top 3 SFs (LeBron, Durant, Melo), we didn't get to see Shumpert defend Melo because they are on the same team. Shumpert only faced LeBron once last year and Durant once last year. I didn't watch either game (so I can't speak to how well he did defending those guys) but Shumpert's box score and plus/minus are both very bad which doesn't help my concerns.

Very much a question mark in my eyes -- Shumpert's capacity to defend LeBron.

[Lucky17]

So in terms of defensive matchups, I'm considering the following:

Rose on Ellis
Maynor/Gordon on Bradley/Chalmers
Shumpert on LeBron
Gibson on Ibaka
Howard on Jordan

If Minnesota goes small, who will play the SF? Will that be Korver or Battier?

[Lucky17]

Also, this may be a series where Patrick Patterson may see a slight increase in minutes, for his ability to spread the floor a bit (and draw Ibaka out). Debating how best to employ/complement his skill set.

I think that would work extremely well (Patterson vs Ibaka).

Edit: Hmm, maybe not. I would be worried about how you contain LeBron without a 2nd shot-blocker alongside Dwight Howard. Howard by himself hasn't slowed down LeBron much in the past. Unsure. How well could Shumpert defend LeBron?

I think Shumpert demonstrated last year that he's capable of guarding bigger, stronger SFs. LeBron is blessed with atypical speed for his size as well, so Shump will have his hands full. I think Shumpert's quickness will acquit him well though.

My main goal isn't to shut down LeBron (a fool's errand, really), although I do hope that Shumpert can somewhat deter his forays into the paint, and that the combined defense/shotblocking of Gibson and Dwight can also have some effect. Rather, I want LeBron to settle for jumpers and limit LeBron's teammates, particularly Ellis, and to a lesser degree Ibaka, from having easy looks.

In a word, I want to make the Wolves beat us from the perimeter. A familiar refrain, I know.

I thought Shumpert did extremely well on Pierce and showed much improvement in his ability to defend SFs who are bigger than him ... but there is Pierce (6-6, 230lbs) and then there is LeBron (6-9, 270lbs).

Hmmm. I was going with ESPN's listings of 6-7, 235 for Pierce, and 6-9, 250 for LeBron.

[Who]

I don't think you should give extended minutes to Maynor. I don't think he brings anything worthwhile to the table. His jump-shot is too weak. It might be different if he could provide more floor spacing (or even tougher defense) but he doesn't. And consequently, I think both Ben Gordon and Marco Belinelli are much better options.

I would play Rose 42-45 minutes a night with Maynor only getting 4-6mpg.

[Lucky17]

I don't think you should give extended minutes to Maynor. I don't think he brings anything worthwhile to the table. His jump-shot is too weak. It might be different if he could provide more floor spacing (or even tougher defense) but he doesn't. And consequently, I think both Ben Gordon and Marco Belinelli are much better options.

I would play Rose 42-45 minutes a night with Maynor only getting 4-6mpg.

I take your point. Both Gordon and Marco are better options from a shooting/scoring standpoint.

I think I'd only bring in Maynor if another distributor was required for the offense, but either of the other two options could probably also handle those duties.

[dark_lord]

i had to vote a little early.  i went with minny

[Lucky17]

Here to field questions if folks have yet to vote on this matchup and would like some convincing.

I've laid out some basic points about our gameplan, which echoes that employed by Golden State during the last round: rely on tough interior defense, and good perimeter defense to force LeBron's supporting cast to beat us.

Ellis will have to contend with Rose, or Shumpert, if the Wolves go small and move LeBron to PF (where Taj will get the defensive assignment on LeBron).

Ibaka will have to contend with Taj (or Dwight, if the Wolves go small and move Ibaka to C).

LeBron will be marked by Shumpert at SF, or Taj at PF.

In all cases, the operating principle for the defense will be to sag/cheat a bit off their man and entice Ellis/Ibaka into shooting jump shots, rather than attempt to come into the middle. If the Wolves do try to force the issue and take the ball into the paint, our help defense should be able to react in time to challenge or block shots.

Scoring wise, OKC still will rely on the pick and roll. If Rose's man doesn't fight through the pick, Rose will have good looks close in. If Howard gets the ball rolling to the hoop, he's likely going to score or draw the foul. Taj will be setting screens and rolling to the hoop as well for putbacks and layins off the extra pass. Shumpert will also occasionally crash the boards, and I also expect Ben Gordon and/or Marco Belinelli to have opportunities for wide open shots.

I expect this series to be a real slugfest, with both teams packing the paint. One additional wrinkle: coach Mike Brown knows LeBron James' in-game tendencies and moves better than any other coach in the playoffs. This knowledge, coupled with Brown's aptitude for defensive schemes, will serve OKC very well when trying to game-plan for an offense that revolves around James.

[Lucky17]

Also, to elaborate on our offensive schemes: DeAndre Jordan and Serge Ibaka on Dwight Howard will be a mismatch in our favor.

Jordan has made strides on the defensive end since his entry into the league, but in the last several seasons, he's still played only a little more than 50% of the available minutes at C for the Clips.

Serge Ibaka may have won a Defensive Player of the Year award, but this actually appears to be due more to flashy highlight-reel shot blocking than any real defensive prowess as an individual defender:

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/23/kendrick-perkins-serge-ibaka-losing-defensive-player-of-the-year-to-marc-gasol-dont-make-any-sense/

Ibaka is a good defensive player, but it’s difficult to build a case he’s better than Gasol.

The Thunder’s defensive rating was essentially the same with Ibaka on the court (99.0) as him off (99.5). The Grizzlies, on the other hand, sunk from sub-Ibaka levels without Gasol (102.2) to better-than-Ibaka heights with Gasol (95.4).

Individually, Ibaka ranked 196th in points allowed per play, according to MySynergySports. Gasol ranked 29th.

Those numbers can be very noisy, but one type of play that tends to more accurately reflect true production, post-ups, also gave a big advantage to Gasol – 21st to 128th.

Moreover, Ibaka appeared at C for only 5% of the available minutes there last season. Will he be able to handle 20-25 minutes down low vs. Dwight if the Wolves elect to go small?

[Who]

I think Ibaka's defense gets a disproportionate amount of criticism vs praise.

For my money, Ibaka was the best defender at the PF position in the NBA last season. No, he hasn't risen to Big Ben or Kevin Garnett status defensively or even where Varejao was a few years ago (as a PF) but I really do not see anyone else at his position who is doing anything better than Ibaka is doing defensively right now.

[Lucky17]

Also, here's an interesting piece of real-life evidence to consider: the 2008-09 Eastern Conference Finals, where Dwight Howard led a scrappy Magic team (that had lost its starting PG to season ending injury) to a 4-2 series win vs. a Cavs team that featured an arguably better supporting cast than the one LeBron has in this current matchup:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NBA_Playoffs#Conference_Finals:_.281.29_Cleveland_Cavaliers_vs._.283.29_Orlando_Magic

The rotation for Orlando:
Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard
Mikael Pietrus, Anthony Johnson, Marcin Gortat, Tony Battie, JJ Redick

The rotation for Cleveland:
Mo Williams, Delonte West, LeBron James, Andersen Varejao, Zydrunus Ilgauskas
Joe Smith, Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, Wally Szczerbiak, Daniel Gibson

[Who]

Also, to elaborate on our offensive schemes: DeAndre Jordan and Serge Ibaka on Dwight Howard will be a mismatch in our favor.

Jordan has made strides on the defensive end since his entry into the league, but in the last several seasons, he's still played only a little more than 50% of the available minutes at C for the Clips.

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Moreover, Ibaka appeared at C for only 5% of the available minutes there last season. Will he be able to handle 20-25 minutes down low vs. Dwight if the Wolves elect to go small?

Ibaka doesn't have a hope in hell of defending Dwight Howard. Too small. Too weak. Dwight would push Ibaka around like a rag doll. The reason why Ibaka is a PF and not C.

Glen Davis will, or at least should be, the secondary defender on Dwight Howard. Get 30-35 minutes from DeAndre Jordan and let Big Baby handle the other 5-10 minutes. I think that will be serviceable enough.

[Lucky17]

Funny, it didn't even register with me that Glen Davis was on that Minnesota roster. He'll definitely need to sop up some minutes at C.

[fitzhickey]

John Hollinger writes this:

Serge Ibaka

+ Athletic, long-armed, shot-blocking ace still learning fundamentals.
+ Overrated defender who struggles against floor-spacers. Good rebounder.
+ Very good midrange shooter. No post game and poor offensive instincts.

Analysis
There's a lot more to defense than blocking shots, people. Ibaka finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting based on his phenomenal shot-blocking total, but the Finals really underscored how far he has to go to be an elite defender overall. Ibaka's shot-blocking skill is second to none -- his 5.38 blocks per 40 minutes led the league comfortably (see chart) -- but he still struggles mightily against face-up 4s and in the finer elements of help defense.

Overall, then, he was merely decent defensively. The Thunder were better with him on the court but not dramatically so (2.8 points per 100 possessions), while Synergy Stats rated him in the middle of the pack. The Thunder didn't act like he was a vital defensive cog, either, often opting to keep Kendrick Perkins or Nick Collison on the court instead of him.

[Who]

Also, here's an interesting piece of real-life evidence to consider: the 2008-09 Eastern Conference Finals, where Dwight Howard led a scrappy Magic team (that had lost its starting PG to season ending injury) to a 4-2 series win vs. a Cavs team that featured an arguably better supporting cast than the one he's got in this current matchup:

The difference defensively from that Cavs-Magic series to this one is:

(1) DeAndre Jordan is a much better defensive matchup than Big Z was against Dwight Howard. Howard was too quick for Big Z who couldn't move well enough laterally to contain him down in the paint. Big Ben was coming off a broken leg (if I recall correctly) and was rushed back onto the court. He wasn't able to defend Dwight either. Then there was Varejao who Dwight man-handled admirably (go Dwight!).

(2) The Magic had Rashard Lewis at PF out at the three point line and neither Varejao or Big Ben were comfortable out there 20 feet from the basket defending him. This took away their best interior help defender and left Big Z alone to deal with Dwight + as main interior help defender. Harming their defensive integrity. A lot like San Antonio did to Ibaka in the past with Matt Bonner. Just wasn't comfortable there defensively. Kept wanting to cheat down into the paint and make plays.

In this series, this  OKC team starts Taj Gibson who has a barely serviceable (below average) jump-shot and range only out to 16-20 feet = a shot that Minnesota desperately want to see OKC taking because it's the lowest percentage shot in their main lineup. Freeing up their best defensive big man to play off of him and roam around defensively (play to his strengths, Ibaka). 

If OKC goes small to avoid this problem, they can probably get Ibaka off the court but Minnesota has the personnel to change up and matchup against them (with Battier most likely).

(3) Mike Brown is an idiot who put a 6-3 combo guard on a 6-10 Hedo Turkoglu allowing Hedo to see over the top of his defender and pick the Cavs help defenders apart in the pick and roll. With LeBron defending the great Rafer Alston.

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It is very different personnel. A very different type of defense OKC will be facing.