Jrue Holiday Extension or ......

[Vermont Green]

This trade could be as simple as Holiday (and picks) for Murray and Capela.  Or if you want to keep the roster slots the same, we could add in Mykhailiuk or someone like that.  I would definitely consider this version of it but I see it as very unlikely.  The truth is that we don't really need Holiday.  We would be trading guard depth for big depth.  Capela could probably start for us; Murray probably comes off the bench (which he probably wouldn't be happy about).  Capela would be a good pairing with Porzingis.  Introducing two new players to the rotation mid-season is a big disruption though, one that we don't need.  Longer term, splitting Holiday into two smaller contracts makes some sense for the Celtics, not so much for ATL.

[Celtic Fan Forever]

I’m not messing with anything right now. Let this core group go do what they were brought together to do- it’s championship or bust this year. We’re too good to shake things up- worry about it in the off-season.

[Donoghus]

I’m not messing with anything right now. Let this core group go do what they were brought together to do- it’s championship or bust this year. We’re too good to shake things up- worry about it in the off-season.

Bingo.  This is the correct answer

[Kernewek]

My question to you is simple.  Who would you rather this year, Jrue Holiday or Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela?

Holiday.

His contract this year is not the problem, which I think is part of the premise of your original post, right? It's whatever he winds up with down the road.

No it's not about this year it's about future plus this year.  Cause Murray and Capela I'd take over just Holiday and it would last this year and future.

Sure, and I think it's reasonable to believe he won't be as good next year.

But, given how well the team is playing:
1- I don't think your trade makes sense for the team right now
2- I don't think whatever minor problems the team has at present are likely to be solved with a -Holiday, +Murray, + Capela trade.
3- It feels premature to trade him now, since it doesn't make sense to plan for the future before a championship-calibre season is over.

1. How doesn't it make sense.  You add an all star talent, that's younger, signed longer, cheaper, better offensively but not as good defense but averages out.  Fixes a need by adding a true center, incase Porzingis or Horford go down. 
2. It's not about fixing a problem with this trade really, it's more about simply improving the team as a whole not just this year but future years.
3. It's not premature trade since you're not downgrading the team, you're improving thew team to better your odds in winning a title this year and next.

I think it’s just as likely this swap makes our team worse over this season, which may be our best chance to compete for a title.

[Celtics2021]

He'd have to take a Horford-like discount to stay with us long term. White needs to be the #1 priority before anyone else.

White is under contract for one more year.  We can’t even offer our best extension until next summer, and if we do offer him an extension it the most it can starts at $28 million in two seasons.  We should extend Holiday and worry about White later, because that might be July 2025’s problem, if it even becomes one.

[Roy H.]

He'd have to take a Horford-like discount to stay with us long term. White needs to be the #1 priority before anyone else.

White is under contract for one more year.  We can’t even offer our best extension until next summer, and if we do offer him an extension it the most it can starts at $28 million in two seasons.  We should extend Holiday and worry about White later, because that might be July 2025’s problem, if it even becomes one.

What's your prediction on a Jrue extension?

[obnoxiousmime]

The whole point of the Holiday deal was to go for it the next two years. Of course it would be better in a few years to have Murray rather than Holiday, but if you keep "resetting" like that you're never going to have the best team you can for a title run.

Besides, it's extremely likely they already made a handshake agreement with Holiday and his agent before the trade was completed. That's just the way these things work in the NBA. My guess is that Holiday will extend for close to what Porzingis did, 30m for two years. Only once in awhile do you see teams take a risk and deal for a guy with one year on his deal and no tacit arrangement to re-sign like Toronto did with Leonard.

[Phantom255x]

He'd have to take a Horford-like discount to stay with us long term. White needs to be the #1 priority before anyone else.

White is under contract for one more year.  We can’t even offer our best extension until next summer, and if we do offer him an extension it the most it can starts at $28 million in two seasons.  We should extend Holiday and worry about White later, because that might be July 2025’s problem, if it even becomes one.

What's your prediction on a Jrue extension?

2 years, $2 (not in millions) 

Jokes aside, I think the hope is that he's happy with all the money he's already made (nearly 300M) and is willing to do the similar kind of extensions Horford has for us (around 10-15M AAV). Maybe he can technically take over Horford's salary spot when he likely retires 2-3 years from now.

[jambr380]

I predict something like $75M/3 years. With $39M guaranteed, that comes out to only $18M/yr for years 2 and 3.

I don’t  think he is just going to pretend that $39M isn’t on the table, so that unfortunately needs to be included in whatever extension you offer. $25M/yr is palatable and also tradable in a year or two if things aren’t working out.

[Phantom255x]

I predict something like $75M/3 years. With $39M guaranteed, that comes out to only $18M for years 2 and 3.

I don’t  think he is just going to pretend that $39M isn’t on the table, so that unfortunately needs to be included in whatever extension you offer. $25M/yr is palatable and also tradable in a year or two if things aren’t working out.

Can the Celtics realistically keep him at that price though assuming you also keep White? That has to be pushing a 200M+ payroll with a ton of penalties in place. Tatum's supermax will also kick in soon. Ugh

[Roy H.]

I predict something like $75M/3 years. With $39M guaranteed, that comes out to only $18M for years 2 and 3.

I don’t  think he is just going to pretend that $39M isn’t on the table, so that unfortunately needs to be included in whatever extension you offer. $25M/yr is palatable and also tradable in a year or two if things aren’t working out.

Can the Celtics realistically keep him at that price though assuming you also keep White? That has to be pushing a 200M+ payroll with a ton of penalties in place. Tatum's supermax will also kick in soon. Ugh

The Celtics can afford it, particularly with the cap jumping 10% each season.  Wyc and Co. bring in massive profits.

[BitterJim]

I predict something like $75M/3 years. With $39M guaranteed, that comes out to only $18M for years 2 and 3.

I don’t  think he is just going to pretend that $39M isn’t on the table, so that unfortunately needs to be included in whatever extension you offer. $25M/yr is palatable and also tradable in a year or two if things aren’t working out.

Can the Celtics realistically keep him at that price though assuming you also keep White? That has to be pushing a 200M+ payroll with a ton of penalties in place. Tatum's supermax will also kick in soon. Ugh

The Celtics can afford it, particularly with the cap jumping 10% each season.  Wyc and Co. bring in massive profits.

Especially if we front load it, so the cap hits are smaller once the other extensions kick in. And that should be preferable to Jrue since he'd be giving up the $39 million from his option

Even better would be if we could keep him for his option next year and then for cheap after, but I wouldn't want to risk losing him for nothing in free agency

[Moranis]

Unless Jrue takes a huge discount, I don't think he and White are both in the team when the Tatum extension kicks in. But that is 2 playoffs from now. The team should go all in right now.

[Celtics2021]

He'd have to take a Horford-like discount to stay with us long term. White needs to be the #1 priority before anyone else.

White is under contract for one more year.  We can’t even offer our best extension until next summer, and if we do offer him an extension it the most it can starts at $28 million in two seasons.  We should extend Holiday and worry about White later, because that might be July 2025’s problem, if it even becomes one.

What's your prediction on a Jrue extension?

That it happens at 3 years, between $85 and $95 million, although more likely in the off-season than the next few weeks.

[ozgod]

I predict something like $75M/3 years. With $39M guaranteed, that comes out to only $18M for years 2 and 3.

I don’t  think he is just going to pretend that $39M isn’t on the table, so that unfortunately needs to be included in whatever extension you offer. $25M/yr is palatable and also tradable in a year or two if things aren’t working out.

Can the Celtics realistically keep him at that price though assuming you also keep White? That has to be pushing a 200M+ payroll with a ton of penalties in place. Tatum's supermax will also kick in soon. Ugh

I posted this in the Jaylen appreciation thread in the context of if/when we may have to trade Jaylen eventually...the Jrue decision will be the first of a number of decisions Brad has to make that would eventually determine if we could keep the gang together for another couple of years and if trading Jaylen may end up becoming an option (in fact it might have been you that brought up the possibility of trading Jaylen, in his appreciation thread of all places  ). This is our contract situation from Spotrac:

click to enlarge


If we win a championship this season and want to run it back again next season, the question would be how to keep the players who we won't have under control next year - Jrue being the main one as he has a player option next season for $39.4m, and the others being the bench pieces Brissett (player option $2.5m), Kornet, Mykhailiuk and Stevens (all UFAs), Davison (RFA), Queta (RFA).

We also have to decide what to do with Hauser ($2m club option), and Banton ($2m club option). We probably keep them as they are cheap, Banton may be disposable. If they can keep the gang together for another season, and not give Kornet a pay increase (and you can't blame him for wanting one after being on minimum deals his whole career), and get Jrue to take a more team friendly deal that brings us below the 2nd apron (maybe an extension in the $20-25m range since we would be $12m over the 2nd apron if everyone comes back) then they definitely won't be trading Brown.

2025-26 is the big year because that's when Tatum's supermax becomes eligible to be signed. That's going to be somewhere north of $60m plus incentives since the salary cap will be at least $156.2m by then. That's when tough decisions will have to be made, and the decision that Jrue and the team makes this offseason will factor heavily into that. And the year after that Hauser becomes a FA, he's probably going to want, and deserve, more than the $2m we're paying him now. We also have to decide what to do with White (will probably command more than the $19m he's on now), and Al ($10m). Maybe Derrick doesn't end up qualifying for a max contract...maybe Sam doesn't have to be paid Kyle Korver money...maybe Al takes a vet min if he's even still playing by then. That's going to be the season where they have to make some tough decisions on Jaylen and whether to sell high, break his salary into a couple of tradable pieces or stick with him.

$20m is probably too low for Jrue, unless he decides to take a team friendly deal to keep the gang together. $25m I think is a realistic valuation for him, but of course his option is for nearly $40m, and he would need to calculate if other teams might give him something similar over 3+ years in FA and if he wants to test that instead of staying with us. We have seen players like Hayward and Al chase the money elsewhere. He did say he likes it here and wants to stay, but the Benjamins are going to play a big factor in that...and I'm sure that Brad and his stats nerds have modelled out all the permutations of how to retain those key players and how much they can afford to be paid, or if we do end up overpaying some of them, how fungible those contracts would be 

Personally I'd like to keep them all together as long as we possibly can...I think we have something special with this team, tonight's thrashing notwithstanding. Hopefully Brad can figure it out