Possible Advanced Stats Theory About the Bucks

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I believe that the Bucks have the oldest team in the league which is usually good in the playoffs. I do feel that coach Bud's team have underachieved in the playoffs. Maybe his lack of adjustment to the playoffs?

I actually disagree with this. Heady play is important in the playoffs, but older players often get overwhelmed with the athleticism of younger, heady players. When you look at the Bucks, I think the age and athleticism on the wings (Hill, Korver, Matthews, Middleton) might suddenly struggle to get good offensive looks.

The Celtics will and should stay home on Giannis with Smart, Ojeleye, Brown, and Hayward. The other guys will not be able to consistently create for themselves, and if Giannis is not creating for them and they can't get good looks because of the game slows down, suddenly their offense will struggle.

I'm more worried about their defense. Their defense this year is really good.

[RockinRyA]

A good stat to look at might be Simple Rating System(SRS). Every champ this century except one has been over 4.5 and all but three over 5.0.

Following that stat, only 6 teams in the league, right now have an SRS over 5.

Milwaukee 11.18
Lakers 7.26
Boston 6.12
Clippers 6.09
Toronto 5.91
Dallas 5.84

No other team in the league is above 3.85.

So if I am picking a champ for this year, I would say it is one of those 6 teams.

Aww no Philly? Whatever should we do 

[mmmmm]

Here's a stat that I just stumbled on that looks sorta interesting:

Here are the top 13 teams by overall record, sorted by their records against teams .500 and above:

Code: [Select]

MIL   12-6   .667
DEN   15-8   .652
LAC   14-9   .609
BOS   12-8   .600
LAL   14-10  .583
MIA   13-10  .565
HOU   13-11  .541
IND   11-12  .478
PHI   12-15  .444
UTA   10-13  .435
TOR   9-12   .429
DAL   10-14  .417
OKC   8-16   .333

It's interesting to take into account small factoids like that three of the Cs 8 losses were against PHI -- and of course that accounts for three of their 12 victories.   Outside those three games, the two teams are much farther apart in these rankings than even the above shows.

I don't know how many of DEN's 23 games here were at home so I don't know how much their home court (altitude) advantage plays into this.

Denver's presence near the top of this list and Dallas' absence are the main differences with the top of Nick's SRS rankings. 

[gouki88]

Here's a stat that I just stumbled on that looks sorta interesting:

Here are the top 13 teams by overall record, sorted by their records against teams .500 and above:

Code: [Select]

MIL   12-6   .667
DEN   15-8   .652
LAC   14-9   .609
BOS   12-8   .600
LAL   14-10  .583
MIA   13-10  .565
HOU   13-11  .541
IND   11-12  .478
PHI   12-15  .444
UTA   10-13  .435
TOR   9-12   .429
DAL   10-14  .417
OKC   8-16   .333

It's interesting to take into account small factoids like that three of the Cs 8 losses were against PHI -- and of course that accounts for three of their 12 victories.   Outside those three games, the two teams are much farther apart in these rankings than even the above shows.

I don't know how many of DEN's 23 games here were at home so I don't know how much their home court (altitude) advantage plays into this.

Denver's presence near the top of this list and Dallas' absence are the main differences with the top of Nick's SRS rankings.

Gotta say it's a surprise to see Toronto with a worse record against those teams than the Pacers.

[nickagneta]

Here's a stat that I just stumbled on that looks sorta interesting:

Here are the top 13 teams by overall record, sorted by their records against teams .500 and above:

Code: [Select]

MIL   12-6   .667
DEN   15-8   .652
LAC   14-9   .609
BOS   12-8   .600
LAL   14-10  .583
MIA   13-10  .565
HOU   13-11  .541
IND   11-12  .478
PHI   12-15  .444
UTA   10-13  .435
TOR   9-12   .429
DAL   10-14  .417
OKC   8-16   .333

It's interesting to take into account small factoids like that three of the Cs 8 losses were against PHI -- and of course that accounts for three of their 12 victories.   Outside those three games, the two teams are much farther apart in these rankings than even the above shows.

I don't know how many of DEN's 23 games here were at home so I don't know how much their home court (altitude) advantage plays into this.

Denver's presence near the top of this list and Dallas' absence are the main differences with the top of Nick's SRS rankings.

Quick glance says 10 of Denver's wins were at home. I could be off. Didn't really verify.

[PhoSita]

I think the Bucks are the best team in the league, but I don't think the gap between them and the rest of the contender-class of the league is as wide as their record / point margin would suggest.

[blink]

Here's a stat that I just stumbled on that looks sorta interesting:

Here are the top 13 teams by overall record, sorted by their records against teams .500 and above:

Code: [Select]

MIL   12-6   .667
DEN   15-8   .652
LAC   14-9   .609
BOS   12-8   .600
LAL   14-10  .583
MIA   13-10  .565
HOU   13-11  .541
IND   11-12  .478
PHI   12-15  .444
UTA   10-13  .435
TOR   9-12   .429
DAL   10-14  .417
OKC   8-16   .333

It's interesting to take into account small factoids like that three of the Cs 8 losses were against PHI -- and of course that accounts for three of their 12 victories.   Outside those three games, the two teams are much farther apart in these rankings than even the above shows.

I don't know how many of DEN's 23 games here were at home so I don't know how much their home court (altitude) advantage plays into this.

Denver's presence near the top of this list and Dallas' absence are the main differences with the top of Nick's SRS rankings.

Gotta say it's a surprise to see Toronto with a worse record against those teams than the Pacers.

For all the hype about Toronto's 14 win streak, they have only 5 wins in that streak against playoff teams.  One of those wings was against the 5 games below .500 Nets (23-28).  So I guess it doesn't surprise me as much.  Toronto is beating up on the bad teams, and doing that extremely well.

[Moranis]

The Bucks have the best player in a world on a team built around his strengths.  They a strong defense and excellent shooters.  They are the best team in the world and it isn't just because of pace.  That doesn't mean they aren't beatable, they absolutely are, especially if they go cold like they did last year, but it doesn't mean they are fool's gold.  They aren't.

Seems like you might have painted my words in a slightly incorrect light, and then disagreed just to disagree.

Not at all.  I think the Bucks will win the title because they have the best player and the best team.  I don't think they are fool's gold under any definition of the word.  I don't think any team in the East will really challenge them, though several could pose difficulty in the Finals.

I disagree. That was my hypothesis. Perhaps I should say their offense is fool's gold because they won't be able to play at the pace in the playoffs, and therefore the role players won't be able to score as easily, and therefore their offensive rating will go down.

This seems like a strange take.  In large part because they are the best defensive team in the league.  They are 3rd offensively.  Sure they have an efficient offense, but the Bucks are the best team in the league because they are the best defensive team in the league.  And they are the best defensive team in the league by a pretty wide margin.  They swarm defensively and do so with size and length.  They also have mastered the art of hiding their lesser individual defenders.  This whole thread just feels like you doubling down on your "Bucks are in Trouble" thread from earlier in the year.  https://forum.celticsstrong.com/index.php?topic=101510.0

And frankly with a name like DefenseWinsChamps you'd think you'd be all behind the best defensive team in the league, not continually coming up with weird ways to believe they are a fraud.

[Somebody]

A good stat to look at might be Simple Rating System(SRS). Every champ this century except one has been over 4.5 and all but three over 5.0.

Following that stat, only 6 teams in the league, right now have an SRS over 5.

Milwaukee 11.18
Lakers 7.26
Boston 6.12
Clippers 6.09
Toronto 5.91
Dallas 5.84

No other team in the league is above 3.85.

So if I am picking a champ for this year, I would say it is one of those 6 teams.

SRS has always been something incredibly reliable to see which teams are contenders. It's also something useful to gauge a superstar's value as long as you take context into account.

[Briantir]

Here's a stat that I just stumbled on that looks sorta interesting:

Here are the top 13 teams by overall record, sorted by their records against teams .500 and above:

Code: [Select]

MIL   12-6   .667
DEN   15-8   .652
LAC   14-9   .609
BOS   12-8   .600
LAL   14-10  .583
MIA   13-10  .565
HOU   13-11  .541
IND   11-12  .478
PHI   12-15  .444
UTA   10-13  .435
TOR   9-12   .429
DAL   10-14  .417
OKC   8-16   .333

It's interesting to take into account small factoids like that three of the Cs 8 losses were against PHI -- and of course that accounts for three of their 12 victories.   Outside those three games, the two teams are much farther apart in these rankings than even the above shows.

I don't know how many of DEN's 23 games here were at home so I don't know how much their home court (altitude) advantage plays into this.

Denver's presence near the top of this list and Dallas' absence are the main differences with the top of Nick's SRS rankings.

Gotta say it's a surprise to see Toronto with a worse record against those teams than the Pacers.

For all the hype about Toronto's 14 win streak, they have only 5 wins in that streak against playoff teams.  One of those wings was against the 5 games below .500 Nets (23-28).  So I guess it doesn't surprise me as much.  Toronto is beating up on the bad teams, and doing that extremely well.

Toronto is good very good all the stats during regular season are meaningless when the playoffs start everyone is 0-0 and adjustments are what win a series every game is different you gotta be able to win multiple ways and last year Toronto kinda exposed the Bucks and coach Bud.

The Bucks clog the paint and make you shoot 3s... They didn't adjust and Toronto beat them 4 times In a row... Milwaukee doesnt scare me, this year Boston has the mind set and personal to knock down shots from.distance given enough space...

This strategy the bucks use works amazing during the regular season but in the playoffs they will face adversity in the second round more then they did last year.

[tazzmaniac]

A good stat to look at might be Simple Rating System(SRS). Every champ this century except one has been over 4.5 and all but three over 5.0.

Following that stat, only 6 teams in the league, right now have an SRS over 5.

Milwaukee 11.18
Lakers 7.26
Boston 6.12
Clippers 6.09
Toronto 5.91
Dallas 5.84

No other team in the league is above 3.85.

So if I am picking a champ for this year, I would say it is one of those 6 teams.

So which Champ was the exception? 

[Somebody]

A good stat to look at might be Simple Rating System(SRS). Every champ this century except one has been over 4.5 and all but three over 5.0.

Following that stat, only 6 teams in the league, right now have an SRS over 5.

Milwaukee 11.18
Lakers 7.26
Boston 6.12
Clippers 6.09
Toronto 5.91
Dallas 5.84

No other team in the league is above 3.85.

So if I am picking a champ for this year, I would say it is one of those 6 teams.

So which Champ was the exception?

The '06 Heat with an SRS of 3.59.

[Boris Badenov]

A good stat to look at might be Simple Rating System(SRS). Every champ this century except one has been over 4.5 and all but three over 5.0.

Following that stat, only 6 teams in the league, right now have an SRS over 5.

Milwaukee 11.18
Lakers 7.26
Boston 6.12
Clippers 6.09
Toronto 5.91
Dallas 5.84

No other team in the league is above 3.85.

So if I am picking a champ for this year, I would say it is one of those 6 teams.

Man, Milwaukee really crush that metric, huh? I definitely don't know if they're good enough to have such a crazy margin between them and the other teams (not calling into question the method, just think it won't last like that in the playoffs). I've definitely watched the Bucks and not been blown away (like watching the old GSW teams, or the Miami Big 3, or even the best Spurs teams), but that might just be me

It's basically margin of victory, which we all know is highly predictive, adjusted for schedule.

That and win-loss tell you a lot. The Bucks are on pace for more than 70 wins, and out of the teams with records that good (high 60s to 70+), well more than half win championships.

This was always one of the weird things about 2008. We were 66-16 and had a margin of 9.30, which is historically good, and the Lakers were worse on both margins. We should have been favored in that series, perhaps heavily.

[Ashwood22]

Here's a stat that I just stumbled on that looks sorta interesting:

Here are the top 13 teams by overall record, sorted by their records against teams .500 and above:

Code: [Select]

MIL   12-6   .667
DEN   15-8   .652
LAC   14-9   .609
BOS   12-8   .600
LAL   14-10  .583
MIA   13-10  .565
HOU   13-11  .541
IND   11-12  .478
PHI   12-15  .444
UTA   10-13  .435
TOR   9-12   .429
DAL   10-14  .417
OKC   8-16   .333

It's interesting to take into account small factoids like that three of the Cs 8 losses were against PHI -- and of course that accounts for three of their 12 victories.   Outside those three games, the two teams are much farther apart in these rankings than even the above shows.

I don't know how many of DEN's 23 games here were at home so I don't know how much their home court (altitude) advantage plays into this.

Denver's presence near the top of this list and Dallas' absence are the main differences with the top of Nick's SRS rankings.

It's very interesting. Thanks

[RockinRyA]

Here's a stat that I just stumbled on that looks sorta interesting:

Here are the top 13 teams by overall record, sorted by their records against teams .500 and above:

Code: [Select]

MIL   12-6   .667
DEN   15-8   .652
LAC   14-9   .609
BOS   12-8   .600
LAL   14-10  .583
MIA   13-10  .565
HOU   13-11  .541
IND   11-12  .478
PHI   12-15  .444
UTA   10-13  .435
TOR   9-12   .429
DAL   10-14  .417
OKC   8-16   .333

It's interesting to take into account small factoids like that three of the Cs 8 losses were against PHI -- and of course that accounts for three of their 12 victories.   Outside those three games, the two teams are much farther apart in these rankings than even the above shows.

I don't know how many of DEN's 23 games here were at home so I don't know how much their home court (altitude) advantage plays into this.

Denver's presence near the top of this list and Dallas' absence are the main differences with the top of Nick's SRS rankings.

Quick glance says 10 of Denver's wins were at home. I could be off. Didn't really verify.

Some of their wins were also flukey allegedly. starters were missing from their opponents lineup. I read this somewhere