Possible Advanced Stats Theory About the Bucks

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Hypothesis: The Bucks success this season is based on role players playing with space and getting a lot of possession per game. This has led to success with their offense during the regular season, but the game will slow down for the Bucks in the playoffs, and their role players will not be able to produce as well, which will limit their success.

Pertinent stats:
1. The Bucks have the fastest pace in the NBA by a significant margin: 105.38. Second place in the Rockets at 103.9. For perspective, that is the highest pace of the last decade by a long-shot.
2. Last year, the Bucks pace dropped by three points from the regular season to the playoffs. Coach Budz teams always drop in pace and offensive rating from the regular season to the playoffs.
3. If we exclude last year because of the Irving debacle, CBS teams raised their offensive rating from the regular season to the post-season in the previous two seasons.

I think the Bucks are a little bit of fool's gold. I'm not saying their not good. I'm saying they are not as good of a playoff team as people might realize.

[SHAQATTACK]

Giannis gets hurt , whelp they aren't going anywhere .

[gift]

Hypothesis: The Bucks success this season is based on role players playing with space and getting a lot of possession per game. This has led to success with their offense during the regular season, but the game will slow down for the Bucks in the playoffs, and their role players will not be able to produce as well, which will limit their success.

Pertinent stats:
1. The Bucks have the fastest pace in the NBA by a significant margin: 105.38. Second place in the Rockets at 103.9. For perspective, that is the highest pace of the last decade by a long-shot.
2. Last year, the Bucks pace dropped by three points from the regular season to the playoffs. Coach Budz teams always drop in pace and offensive rating from the regular season to the playoffs.
3. If we exclude last year because of the Irving debacle, CBS teams raised their offensive rating from the regular season to the post-season in the previous two seasons.

I think the Bucks are a little bit of fool's gold. I'm not saying their not good. I'm saying they are not as good of a playoff team as people might realize.

Very interesting perspective. I'd be curious how pace in regular season vs pace in playoffs of all teams historically correlate. That might tell us a bit more about what to expect.

[Moranis]

The Bucks have the best player in a world on a team built around his strengths.  They a strong defense and excellent shooters.  They are the best team in the world and it isn't just because of pace.  That doesn't mean they aren't beatable, they absolutely are, especially if they go cold like they did last year, but it doesn't mean they are fool's gold.  They aren't. 

[mmmmm]

Hypothesis: The Bucks success this season is based on role players playing with space and getting a lot of possession per game. This has led to success with their offense during the regular season, but the game will slow down for the Bucks in the playoffs, and their role players will not be able to produce as well, which will limit their success.

Pertinent stats:
1. The Bucks have the fastest pace in the NBA by a significant margin: 105.38. Second place in the Rockets at 103.9. For perspective, that is the highest pace of the last decade by a long-shot.
2. Last year, the Bucks pace dropped by three points from the regular season to the playoffs. Coach Budz teams always drop in pace and offensive rating from the regular season to the playoffs.
3. If we exclude last year because of the Irving debacle, CBS teams raised their offensive rating from the regular season to the post-season in the previous two seasons.

I think the Bucks are a little bit of fool's gold. I'm not saying their not good. I'm saying they are not as good of a playoff team as people might realize.

Very interesting perspective. I'd be curious how pace in regular season vs pace in playoffs of all teams historically correlate. That might tell us a bit more about what to expect.

I don't have numbers handy at the moment, but I've looked at this in detail in the past.  Basically, average pace definitely slows down in the playoffs.  This is generally because better defenses tend to be better at transition defense - forcing opponents into half-court sets.

Also, I've looked back at the Celtics own history and found that, once you get out of the crazy 60s (when the team ran with insane pace numbers) & 70s, by far Celtic teams with higher pace rates in the regular season have not done well in the playoffs.  Most of the Celtic teams in the last 30 years that have made it at least to the ECF have tended to have below average pace rankings in the regular season.   All four of the last Celtic title teams were below average in pace in the regular season.

It makes logical sense.   As I noted, better teams with better defenses tend to be far less susceptible to transition -- not only do they make fewer mistakes (turnovers) but they also just plain tend to be better at getting back on D.   Thus, in the playoffs, half-court sets tend to represent a greater share of possessions than in the regular season.   And teams that are better, more experienced at executing in the half court (both on offense and defense) are going to be better off than teams that are not.

Obviously, there are going to be exceptions.

It's also interesting to note that the opposite was almost true back in the Red-Russell-Heinsohn eras.   Back then, The Celtics ran the bejesus off everyone and sometimes had insane pace numbers.   But the game has changed a lot since then.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The Bucks have the best player in a world on a team built around his strengths.  They a strong defense and excellent shooters.  They are the best team in the world and it isn't just because of pace.  That doesn't mean they aren't beatable, they absolutely are, especially if they go cold like they did last year, but it doesn't mean they are fool's gold.  They aren't.

Seems like you might have painted my words in a slightly incorrect light, and then disagreed just to disagree.

[nickagneta]

I think you are massively overrating pace as a significant advanced statistic to look at when deciding how teams might fare in the playoffs. I might go so far as to say that pace means very little to next to nothing in judging how a team might play during post season play.

[Moranis]

The Bucks have the best player in a world on a team built around his strengths.  They a strong defense and excellent shooters.  They are the best team in the world and it isn't just because of pace.  That doesn't mean they aren't beatable, they absolutely are, especially if they go cold like they did last year, but it doesn't mean they are fool's gold.  They aren't.

Seems like you might have painted my words in a slightly incorrect light, and then disagreed just to disagree.

Not at all.  I think the Bucks will win the title because they have the best player and the best team.  I don't think they are fool's gold under any definition of the word.  I don't think any team in the East will really challenge them, though several could pose difficulty in the Finals. 

[Moranis]

Hypothesis: The Bucks success this season is based on role players playing with space and getting a lot of possession per game. This has led to success with their offense during the regular season, but the game will slow down for the Bucks in the playoffs, and their role players will not be able to produce as well, which will limit their success.

Pertinent stats:
1. The Bucks have the fastest pace in the NBA by a significant margin: 105.38. Second place in the Rockets at 103.9. For perspective, that is the highest pace of the last decade by a long-shot.
2. Last year, the Bucks pace dropped by three points from the regular season to the playoffs. Coach Budz teams always drop in pace and offensive rating from the regular season to the playoffs.
3. If we exclude last year because of the Irving debacle, CBS teams raised their offensive rating from the regular season to the post-season in the previous two seasons.

I think the Bucks are a little bit of fool's gold. I'm not saying their not good. I'm saying they are not as good of a playoff team as people might realize.

Very interesting perspective. I'd be curious how pace in regular season vs pace in playoffs of all teams historically correlate. That might tell us a bit more about what to expect.

I don't have numbers handy at the moment, but I've looked at this in detail in the past.  Basically, average pace definitely slows down in the playoffs.  This is generally because better defenses tend to be better at transition defense - forcing opponents into half-court sets.

Also, I've looked back at the Celtics own history and found that, once you get out of the crazy 60s (when the team ran with insane pace numbers) & 70s, by far Celtic teams with higher pace rates in the regular season have not done well in the playoffs.  Most of the Celtic teams in the last 30 years that have made it at least to the ECF have tended to have below average pace rankings in the regular season.   All four of the last Celtic title teams were below average in pace in the regular season.

It makes logical sense.   As I noted, better teams with better defenses tend to be far less susceptible to transition -- not only do they make fewer mistakes (turnovers) but they also just plain tend to be better at getting back on D.   Thus, in the playoffs, half-court sets tend to represent a greater share of possessions than in the regular season.   And teams that are better, more experienced at executing in the half court (both on offense and defense) are going to be better off than teams that are not.

Obviously, there are going to be exceptions.

It's also interesting to note that the opposite was almost true back in the Red-Russell-Heinsohn eras.   Back then, The Celtics ran the bejesus off everyone and sometimes had insane pace numbers.   But the game has changed a lot since then.

The Warriors 3 titles they were a top 5 pace finishing 1st, 4th, and 5th (they were 2nd when they lost to the Cavs and 10th last year).  The Cavs were one of the slowest teams in the league and the Raptors were middle of the pack.  Lebron's Miami teams were middle of the pack to slow, but the Spurs teams were top 10 and 5 in pace the two years they played the Heat.  The Thunder were also fairly fast paced (6th), while the Mavs were middle of the pack.  The Lakers were 14th and 5th the two wins they had and were 6th when they lost to Boston, who was in the middle. 

In other words, pace means almost nothing.  You can win when you are slow or you can win when you are fast.  Talent is what matters.   

[ETNCeltics]

The Bucks' roster is nothing special. They have a collection of role players and journeymen that most wouldn't give a 2nd glance, if not for the fact that they fit like a glove around their megastar.

The thing that stands out about them, obviously other than the Freak, is their defense. Opponents shooting 40%.

Bottom line is top to bottom they've bought in defensively, and offensively, Freak can always get a good look, or the attention given him gets his teammates a great look.

Even so, IMO, the team to beat come playoff team will be the LAC. Playoff Kawhi will kick in and he certainly won't be tired. If we can't get there, I would be interested in watching a Kawhi vs. Freak finals.

[tstorey_97]

My notes from last year's playoff series with Bucks won't mean too much, but, they do offer something.

Buck's coach stated it was his intent to "wear them down."

After hearing that I decided to track what they did. Here are two of the games.

Game 3
Bucks bench 75 minutes/40 points --5 players
Celtic's bench 48 minutes/16 points -- 4 players

Game 4
Bucks bench 84 minutes/32 points -- was posted by 4 players.
Celtic's bench 52 minutes/7 points -- posted by 4 players

Not paid for statistical analysis, but, throughout the 5 games, the Bucks bench played more and scored more.

They were bigger than the Celtics on the court at all times also. They had more big guys and used them with effect.

This year both teams are different. Bucks right now, are smaller, but they run a pretty firm 4 man bench.

The Celtics are a better team in all ways.

This year, if the Celtics make it to Milwaukee, they will be better equipped benchwise and far better with starters.

Bucks are 2nd in FG%
1st in rebounds
1st in points scored @ 120...sheeesh

Celtics will need to shoot the lights out, which can be done.
Benchers will need to play big to keep the whole thing going.

Long shot? Well, Terry freaking Rozier III lit these Bucks up two years ago...he beat them so bad Bledsoe had to go into counseling for 6 months.

It is going to be hard, but Milwaukee hasn't played a team with 4 scorers like ours and when they did (Oct.)? The Celtics beat them.
Tatum+ Hayward + Walker = 78 points...there's some pace for ya.

Can you see the Buck's pre game meeting?
"Ok, just double up on Walker and let Hayward-Brown-Tatum try and beat us....wait a sec...Just take Brown out of the game and let....this ain't gonna be that easy...is it?"

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The Bucks have the best player in a world on a team built around his strengths.  They a strong defense and excellent shooters.  They are the best team in the world and it isn't just because of pace.  That doesn't mean they aren't beatable, they absolutely are, especially if they go cold like they did last year, but it doesn't mean they are fool's gold.  They aren't.

Seems like you might have painted my words in a slightly incorrect light, and then disagreed just to disagree.

Not at all.  I think the Bucks will win the title because they have the best player and the best team.  I don't think they are fool's gold under any definition of the word.  I don't think any team in the East will really challenge them, though several could pose difficulty in the Finals.

I disagree. That was my hypothesis. Perhaps I should say their offense is fool's gold because they won't be able to play at the pace in the playoffs, and therefore the role players won't be able to score as easily, and therefore their offensive rating will go down.

[nickagneta]

A good stat to look at might be Simple Rating System(SRS). Every champ this century except one has been over 4.5 and all but three over 5.0.

Following that stat, only 6 teams in the league, right now have an SRS over 5.

Milwaukee 11.18
Lakers 7.26
Boston 6.12
Clippers 6.09
Toronto 5.91
Dallas 5.84

No other team in the league is above 3.85.

So if I am picking a champ for this year, I would say it is one of those 6 teams.

[liam]

I believe that the Bucks have the oldest team in the league which is usually good in the playoffs. I do feel that coach Bud's team have underachieved in the playoffs. Maybe his lack of adjustment to the playoffs?

[gouki88]

A good stat to look at might be Simple Rating System(SRS). Every champ this century except one has been over 4.5 and all but three over 5.0.

Following that stat, only 6 teams in the league, right now have an SRS over 5.

Milwaukee 11.18
Lakers 7.26
Boston 6.12
Clippers 6.09
Toronto 5.91
Dallas 5.84

No other team in the league is above 3.85.

So if I am picking a champ for this year, I would say it is one of those 6 teams.

Man, Milwaukee really crush that metric, huh? I definitely don't know if they're good enough to have such a crazy margin between them and the other teams (not calling into question the method, just think it won't last like that in the playoffs). I've definitely watched the Bucks and not been blown away (like watching the old GSW teams, or the Miami Big 3, or even the best Spurs teams), but that might just be me