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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: KG Living Legend on August 11, 2017, 03:37:12 PM

Title: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: KG Living Legend on August 11, 2017, 03:37:12 PM
https://fansided.com/2017/08/10/nylon-calculus-three-models-project-best-offenses/

 Percent of minutes given to Rough Riders, which includes players like Noah Vonleh and Omer Asik, are the most detrimental, followed by Average Point Guards, Average Wings and Typical Bigs. Other than the Gods, Offensive Playmakers and All Around Bigs are the most valuable offensive players to have on the court. At the very bottom I have some examples of each Player Type from last year.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: KG Living Legend on August 11, 2017, 03:40:16 PM
Using those three models and the projected rosters as of today, I was able to make preliminary prediction on the most efficient offenses for next year. Sit down folks; I think the Warriors and the Rockets are going to have pretty good offenses this year.

Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: Big333223 on August 11, 2017, 05:03:42 PM
I can see the Celtics as the 3rd best offense this season. They were 8th in the league last year and they brought in the #1 option on a 50-win playoff team. Add in growth from Jaylen and Marcus, the upgrade in consistency from Olynyk to Morris, and whatever Tatum (the most polished offensive player in the draft), I can see them being real good.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: Rosco917 on August 11, 2017, 07:42:30 PM
I'd like to see one of these relating to defense too.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: timpiker on August 11, 2017, 08:21:02 PM
I wish we had a young KG on this team !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: gouki88 on August 11, 2017, 09:42:11 PM
I wish we had a young KG on this team !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't we all
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: Roy H. on August 12, 2017, 01:26:28 AM
Quote
Boston and Minnesota might be surprises to many people being this high. One aspect is that the Player Type ‘Gods’ is binary, so that Gordon Hayward counts as much as Steph Curry, even though not all Basketball Gods are actually equal.

This seems like a pretty big deficiency in the model.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: SparzWizard on August 12, 2017, 03:27:38 AM
I wish we had a young KG on this team !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't we all

22 points, 20 rebounds game against the Wizards on home opener...I remember that KG.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: tazzmaniac on August 12, 2017, 05:00:57 AM
Quote
Boston and Minnesota might be surprises to many people being this high. One aspect is that the Player Type ‘Gods’ is binary, so that Gordon Hayward counts as much as Steph Curry, even though not all Basketball Gods are actually equal.

This seems like a pretty big deficiency in the model.
That is huge.  It also says Minnesota did well because they avoided Typical Bigs and Average PGs.  So what are Dieng and Teague classified as?  Crowder is listed as defensive guard. 
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: tazzmaniac on August 12, 2017, 05:24:03 AM
The most interesting item in this article is this link at the bottom on lineups.  The Wizards starting 5 played nearly 500 minutes more together than the next most 5-man lineup during the regular season.  Only 9 5-man lineups played more than 500 minutes together.  Our starting 5 played 432.9 minutes together which was 13th most.  At the opposite end, the Sixers only 2 5-man lineups that played over 100 minutes together were only at:  114.5 and 102.4.   

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/lineup_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&lineup_type=5-man&output=per_min&is_playoffs=N&year_id=2017&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&order_by=mp
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: GreenFaith1819 on August 12, 2017, 09:12:04 AM
I can believe this.

This Celtics Team - as presently constructed - will be SO MUCH  FUN to watch next season.

If opponents could barely stop our King of the Fourth when he was our primary option then adding The Haymaker into the mix will be POTENT.....

This is not to even mention Big Al's versatility AND the offensive potential in Jason Tatum AND Jaylen's continued development.

Gordon Hayward's going to open up SO MANY otions for this team  now...

I know that the Wiz won't be slouches and neither will CLE (they're a complete wildcard with the Kyrie nonsense, though).

Toronto will still be a challenge, I believe.

But THIS Celtics Team will be SO MUCH FUN. I can't wait until October.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: ThePaintedArea on August 12, 2017, 10:42:15 AM
Quote
Boston and Minnesota might be surprises to many people being this high. One aspect is that the Player Type ‘Gods’ is binary, so that Gordon Hayward counts as much as Steph Curry, even though not all Basketball Gods are actually equal.

This seems like a pretty big deficiency in the model.

Actually he's averaging the results of three different models.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: CelticsFanFromNYC on August 12, 2017, 11:09:00 AM
Quote
Boston and Minnesota might be surprises to many people being this high. One aspect is that the Player Type ‘Gods’ is binary, so that Gordon Hayward counts as much as Steph Curry, even though not all Basketball Gods are actually equal.

This seems like a pretty big deficiency in the model.


They didn't consider Melo god tier. I wonder if they do once hes on the Rockets
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: Roy H. on August 12, 2017, 12:26:56 PM
Quote
Boston and Minnesota might be surprises to many people being this high. One aspect is that the Player Type ‘Gods’ is binary, so that Gordon Hayward counts as much as Steph Curry, even though not all Basketball Gods are actually equal.

This seems like a pretty big deficiency in the model.

Actually he's averaging the results of three different models.

If two of those models consider Hayward the equivalent of Lebron, the whole result is broken, wouldn't you agree?

The "player types" models are basically junk. If the methodology doesn't convince you, the results should. Do you think that Minnesota will have the best offense in the NBA next year? Do you think that we will essentially be tied with Golden State? That's what the player type model predicts.

Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: SHAQATTACK on August 12, 2017, 04:20:10 PM
Kobe , KG, MJ , Bird ...DNA is rare.
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: KGs Knee on August 12, 2017, 05:50:00 PM
Quote
Boston and Minnesota might be surprises to many people being this high. One aspect is that the Player Type ‘Gods’ is binary, so that Gordon Hayward counts as much as Steph Curry, even though not all Basketball Gods are actually equal.

This seems like a pretty big deficiency in the model.

Actually he's averaging the results of three different models.

If two of those models consider Hayward the equivalent of Lebron, the whole result is broken, wouldn't you agree?

The "player types" models are basically junk. If the methodology doesn't convince you, the results should. Do you think that Minnesota will have the best offense in the NBA next year? Do you think that we will essentially be tied with Golden State? That's what the player type model predicts.



I agree that any statistical model that puts Hayward on par with Durant/LeBron/ect. is a bad model.   Nobody should be putting much, if any, stock in such a model.

That said, I actually do think Boston has a good chance of being one of the top 5 offenses in the league this season. Our three best players seem to be a very good fit and have skills that complement each other quite nicely. How close we are to GSW is questionable, but I won't be surprised if the answer is "a lot closer than you'd have thought".
Title: Re: C's Third best offense from Nylon Calculus
Post by: ThePaintedArea on August 13, 2017, 12:23:26 PM
Quote
Boston and Minnesota might be surprises to many people being this high. One aspect is that the Player Type ‘Gods’ is binary, so that Gordon Hayward counts as much as Steph Curry, even though not all Basketball Gods are actually equal.

This seems like a pretty big deficiency in the model.

Actually he's averaging the results of three different models.

If two of those models consider Hayward the equivalent of Lebron, the whole result is broken, wouldn't you agree?

Honestly I don't understand the methodology. The mathematics is beyond me and I don't have an opinion one way or the other. It looks like you're asking the right question.

The "player types" models are basically junk. If the methodology doesn't convince you, the results should. Do you think that Minnesota will have the best offense in the NBA next year? Do you think that we will essentially be tied with Golden State? That's what the player type model predicts.

Again, I'm pretty sure I don't know enough to have an opinion. I guess we can check back in April.

I do think that Boston's offense will be pretty spectacular, and even better in 2018-19.

Minnesota was already 10th in offense last year (there's a puzzle: Thibodeau's team was wretched defensively...), and they've added Jimmy Butler.

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/order/true

Brahme's ten player types and the whole question of lineup balance and fit, on the other hand, is extremely interesting, especially nowadays; we seem to be undergoing a seismic shift in how the game is played and who gets on a roster and on the floor.

Somewhat lost in the Celtics' roster shakeup this offseason is the radical shift away from bigs and toward wings and swings who can create off the dribble. The journeyman Aron Baynes is basically the second big, and a key stat to watch this coming season will be his minutes. Brad Stevens played two bigs predominantly last year - but Danny Ainge has made that tactic problematic.  This is a big deal.