I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.
That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.
He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.
It's hard to get kicked out of 2 D-1 programs. What happens whn a knucklehead like that gets paid?
I guess we have to wait and see, won't we? The big question is, do you not trust the team enough that they won't do their jobs to make sure he doesn't stray away from the right path?
Say what anyone want's, he went to rehab and hired a life coach. He's doing something on his part, something. And even if we pick him in the 2nd round, we're paying him anyway. An extra guaranteed year won't make a difference if he chooses to throw his life away. We'll just have to do our part in keeping him in check, letting him know that there's a great career and life ahead of him if he keeps his focus.
And what's the downside of swinging for the fences and miss? Well, it's only just three years of about $1.4 - $1.5 million per year of a cap hit, NOT A LOT. There's really not a ton from that #16 spot that we know with upside as high as Upshaw.
And what's the reward if he turns it around, keeps his life and professional career on track and pans out to his potential? I'd let you guys answer that.
You have to weigh the risk vs. the reward. You are enamored with the reward, but not giving the risk equal rating. After he got kicked off of two teams, for what is in all likelihood being an addict the risk that he gives you nothing is great.
The risk isn't just that if he doesn't work out it is a 1.5 MM cap hit, it is the 1.5 MM cap hit plus the opportunity cost of passing on someone that is far more likely to give us a rotation minutes in the future.
As to his potential, people are greatly exaggerating it. Before getting kicked off his team this year pundits were talking about him as anywhere from the 5th best center in his class. He did block a lot of shots, but he played in a system that had him stand under the hoop and wait for the ball to come to him. In the NBA with the 3 second rule, he is going to have a ton of trouble guarding on switches. The biggest knocks on him are falling asleep on defense and laziness in the pick and roll (that and a lack of offensive game). He is a good shotblocking prospect but not one that you would burn the 16th pick on with all his red flags.
Why on earth would you pick someone at 16 who according to pretty much every piece of information out there will be available at 28 and probably even at 33. I understand that we need a rim protector, but drafting him early when we could get more value by drafting him later and going with someone else at 16 is foolish. There are reporters who have mentioned that he might not even get drafted!
I am fine with him at 33, but picking him with our top pick to watch him get kicked out of the league in a year or two is not a smart move. Luckily Ainge is way too smart to make that type of mistake.
With all due respect, Evan, but I am looking at risk/reward. I never said he was low risk, but I look at him as a talent we can mold and we can keep, not a guy who would be out of the league. I really believe he's worth gambling our top pick and here's my reasons why...
1.) While it could mean we pass on a rotation guy in the future, keep in mind that we still have A TON of 1st round picks 5 years. We can afford using the #16 on Upshaw and go risk/reward as we will have many more chips to acquire that "rotation guy" in case we needed one.
2.) Part of why we can also afford gambling on Upshaw is his potential. No, I'm not exaggerating it. He is an elite shot blocker in the college level, that's an elite skills set that translates in the NBA. He has the physical tools. He's long, he has solid strength, he's mobile and he's young. Basically, he has the elite skill set, and you can mold him into a much better player because he's physically capable of developing into one. Also, as per Draftexpress.com, he's a good finisher around the paint despite being raw. So with physical tools and a good touch, he can not only develop into a great defensive player, but he can develop a solid inside game as well. I don't think anyone is exaggerating his upside at all. He's got the tools physically to be a good player, a way better player than anyone at #16 that's available except him.
3.) And as for why I'm advocating drafting him at #16, it's really because there's a BIG CHANCE he won't last at 28. Yes, I believe that despite everybody is saying he's going to drop in the second round. Why?
- Dallas pick is #21. They have no Center as Tyson Chandler is going to Free Agency.
- Blazers pick at #23. They have no Center as Robin Lopez is going to Free Agency.
- Grizzlies pick at #25. Both their Centers are going to Free Agency.
- Lakers pick at #27. While they may pick Okafor or Towns, as of now they have no Center of significance.
Those are at least THREE teams that pick before us that could make the same gamble on Upshaw as I'm advocating. Then add to it...
- Washington pick at #19. Nene and Gortat are in their 30's. Could be a project Center.
- Bulls pick at #22. Joakim Noah is 30 and is hurt most of the time. Pau is turning 36 and they have no real backup Center that can contribute.
- Spurs pick at #26, who I believe has the perfect structure for him to go, with a perfect situation as Tim Duncan is on his way out, and Tiago Splitter is 30.
That's about 6 legitimate teams that could pick him and the pick will make sense. And why would they gamble on him, you ask? Draftexpress says this...
Nevertheless, Upshaw's talent will likely lead a team to give him another opportunity, as players with his physical tools are rare and coveted commodities in today's NBA.
From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/#ixzz3dGOWcJfQ
http://www.draftexpress.com
I understand that most mocks have him in the second round. Let's just say I won't be surprised if he gets taken into the first. There's upside on that kid, so you take him before anyone else does. Because not only he has the potential to be a good player, he fills a desperate need for our squad. Just work on his red flags, put the staff into work. I don't think it's really that hard to make him realize that if he screws this up, his NBA career is done.
If you believe that he is a threat to get picked starting at 21 then you either trade up from 28 or trade back from 16. I don't think we have to worry about teams with a need for a center now to pick him, since he isn't going to be ready for a while. Right now he is capable of standing at the rim and blocking shots. His pick and roll defense is not good, he doesn't make good rotations and rarely boxes out. If he were ready to play now with the character concerns then it would be one thing, but he is far away from being ready to play NBA minutes.
Since he is not ready now he will take years of development to get where he needs to be. With his character concerns it's less likely he develops like he needs to. That is the problem with his potential, it is exceedingly unlikely he reaches it because of how far he needs to go and what he will need to do to get there.
I'm not sure from what he has shown now he will have the highest upside of anyone available at 16, but even if he is the development it will take to get there is less likely to happen due to him being an addict. I'd rather have Looney, Oubre or RHJ at 16 because they have elite athleticism and length (Looney less so with the athleticism). While they also have a similarly long way to go as Upshaw, it is considerably more likely they get there.
The draft is not just about gambling on talent it is about gambling on whether talent can develop. With Ushaw the likelihood that gamble pays off is minuscule.
Topic: Fox Sports: Is Upshaw the Answer to Boston's Biggest Problem? (Read 15555 times)