Fox Sports: Is Upshaw the Answer to Boston's Biggest Problem?

[jpotter33]

He'd be the perfect gamble with a non-guaranteed contract at 33, but I don't see any reason not to grab him at 28 if he's available. His upside is so high, and you can always bury him in the D-League if he doesn't work out.

We don't even know what kind of stuff he has done. Crack? Heroine? Dealing? He has been kicked off multiple teams and apparently has done things so bad they literally shock team owners and scouts. He also has a heart condition. Why/How do people just ignore this stuff?

You cant really expect much value at 28, so why not swing for the fences with that pick? If worst comes to worst we just waive him and eat his little bit of guaranteed money.

[hwangjini_1]

queue the post of future celtics owner declaring he should be our pick at 16

ha, ha...and a tp for your ability to foresee the future. 

[LooseCannon]

At 33, with a non guaranteed contract i think he would be perfect.

What makes you think he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract?

[Celtics4ever]

For every John Lucas there are 3-4 John Tarpleys.   Addiction is hard to over come especially if your rich.

[notthebowler]

I think a lot of people are underestimating the worst case scenario with Upshaw's addiction.  I've heard a lot of "If things go south, just cut him". 

If you've ever worked with someone who has a chemical dependency, you know things don't just go smoothly until there is one big blowup.  IF things go south, it will likely be pretty complicated.  He'll be late for practice, miss film session(s), be late for a team flight, get in a fight during practice, be physically present but mentally vacant, and on and on.  And you can't just test him every day and cut him if he tests positive, before any problems arise.  Drug testing is collectively bargained and I don't believe the number and frequency of allowable tests is unlimited.

And the thing is, if he's late for a practice, you don't cut him for that.  That's why you frequently hear stories when an athlete implodes that they had been a problem in the locker room for a while.

Regardless of where he ends up, I hope for his own sake that he becomes a model citizen.  My whole point is that I believe the potential downside is much worse than some think.  It's not as easy as "just cut him".  He could do some damage before he gets cut.

Having said that, I'm all for taking him at 33.     To me it comes down to whether Brad and the staff think it will be worth dealing with the potential problems.  Because ultimately, the coaching staff will be the ones who have to deal with it (as well as his teammates).

[LooseCannon]

He'd be the perfect gamble with a non-guaranteed contract at 33, but I don't see any reason not to grab him at 28 if he's available. His upside is so high, and you can always bury him in the D-League if he doesn't work out.

We don't even know what kind of stuff he has done. Crack? Heroine? Dealing? He has been kicked off multiple teams and apparently has done things so bad they literally shock team owners and scouts. He also has a heart condition. Why/How do people just ignore this stuff?

You cant really expect much value at 28, so why not swing for the fences with that pick? If worst comes to worst we just waive him and eat his little bit of guaranteed money.

It's stupid if his red flags make him the equivalent of swinging for the fences on a pitch that is a foot outside home plate.  If I were going to gamble, I might be happier taking a risk on Chris McCullough and his torn ACL.

[csfansince60s]

good god, if Upshaw goes undrafted, which is definitely possible considering all the issues, he will be the most heavily discussed undrafted player I can recall.

Considering all the decent draft/stash Euros that dropped out yesterday, I'm pretty confident that Upshaw, despite the giant red flags, will not go undrafted.

A team with multiple picks will take a shot with him, especially without guaranteed $$ in the second round.

[mmmmm]

At 33, with a non guaranteed contract i think he would be perfect.

What makes you think he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract?

Umm.... because it would be a 2nd round pick?  And that's the only way he'd get to play in the NBA?

I suppose he could go play in Europe or China. So, yeah, technically he wouldn't _have_ to sign.

I expect that he would (in that scenario), though.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

[jpotter33]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

tp. If we dont trade out, i think we need to swing for the fences on our picks, though id much prefer to get him with 28than 16. Everyone else in our range is just "meh".

[Ilikesports17]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

It's hard to get kicked out of 2 D-1 programs. What happens whn a knucklehead like that gets paid?

[celticsclay]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

Respectfully, I find this really ridiculous. If he was a model student athlete with no heart issues is really highly debatable whether he would get picked 16th. He had one good half season of basketball primarily against weaker OOC opponents. I really think you are letting the mystique of the unknown make him see better than he is.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

It's hard to get kicked out of 2 D-1 programs. What happens whn a knucklehead like that gets paid?

I guess we have to wait and see, won't we? The big question is, do you not trust the team enough that they won't do their jobs to make sure he doesn't stray away from the right path?

Say what anyone want's, he went to rehab and hired a life coach. He's doing something on his part, something. And even if we pick him in the 2nd round, we're paying him anyway. An extra guaranteed year won't make a difference if he chooses to throw his life away. We'll just have to do our part in keeping him in check, letting him know that there's a great career and life ahead of him if he keeps his focus.

And what's the downside of swinging for the fences and miss? Well, it's only just three years of about $1.4 - $1.5 million per year of a cap hit, NOT A LOT. There's really not a ton from that #16 spot that we know with upside as high as Upshaw. 

And what's the reward if he turns it around, keeps his life and professional career on track and pans out to his potential? I'd let you guys answer that.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

Respectfully, I find this really ridiculous. If he was a model student athlete with no heart issues is really highly debatable whether he would get picked 16th. He had one good half season of basketball primarily against weaker OOC opponents. I really think you are letting the mystique of the unknown make him see better than he is.

This is a quote from Chad Ford.

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

That was posted on an another thread a few weeks ago.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78248.0

One of the best draft scouts in the country, and a respectable one suggested that outside the issues, he's a lottery talent. So I think it's ridiculous that you find it ridiculous that outside of the red flags, Upshaw is not good value at #16.

[Evantime34]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

It's hard to get kicked out of 2 D-1 programs. What happens whn a knucklehead like that gets paid?

I guess we have to wait and see, won't we? The big question is, do you not trust the team enough that they won't do their jobs to make sure he doesn't stray away from the right path?

Say what anyone want's, he went to rehab and hired a life coach. He's doing something on his part, something. And even if we pick him in the 2nd round, we're paying him anyway. An extra guaranteed year won't make a difference if he chooses to throw his life away. We'll just have to do our part in keeping him in check, letting him know that there's a great career and life ahead of him if he keeps his focus.

And what's the downside of swinging for the fences and miss? Well, it's only just three years of about $1.4 - $1.5 million per year of a cap hit, NOT A LOT. There's really not a ton from that #16 spot that we know with upside as high as Upshaw. 

And what's the reward if he turns it around, keeps his life and professional career on track and pans out to his potential? I'd let you guys answer that.

You have to weigh the risk vs. the reward. You are enamored with the reward, but not giving the risk equal rating. After he got kicked off of two teams, for what is in all likelihood being an addict the risk that he gives you nothing is great.

The risk isn't just that if he doesn't work out it is a 1.5 MM cap hit, it is the 1.5 MM cap hit plus the opportunity cost of passing on someone that is far more likely to give us a rotation minutes in the future.

As to his potential, people are greatly exaggerating it. Before getting kicked off his team this year pundits were talking about him as anywhere from the 5th best center in his class. He did block a lot of shots, but he played in a system that had him stand under the hoop and wait for the ball to come to him. In the NBA with the 3 second rule, he is going to have a ton of trouble guarding on switches. The biggest knocks on him are falling asleep on defense and laziness in the pick and roll (that and a lack of offensive game). He is a good shotblocking prospect but not one that you would burn the 16th pick on with all his red flags.

Why on earth would you pick someone at 16 who according to pretty much every piece of information out there will be available at 28 and probably even at 33. I understand that we need a rim protector, but drafting him early when we could get more value by drafting him later and going with someone else at 16 is foolish. There are reporters who have mentioned that he might not even get drafted!

I am fine with him at 33, but picking him with our top pick to watch him get kicked out of the league in a year or two is not a smart move. Luckily Ainge is way too smart to make that type of mistake.