I think coping skills have gotten worse, not better.
Expectations are high and recent failures make outliers feel like trends.
From the stats I’ve read in this thread:
1. The Celtics currently have the fewest blown leads in the NBA, with 13, and a winning percentage of over 80%.
2. Other contenders like the Bucks, Nuggets and Thunder have blown between 16-19 leads so far this season.
3. The Celtics currently have the best winning percentage in the NBA and have clinched the number one seed in the East. This is an improvement from last year.
A big concern is shooting too many 3 point shots.
1. The Celtics currently lead the league, along with the Thunder, in 3 point percentage at 39%. This is an improvement from last year at 37.4%.
2. They are attempting 42.6 3-pointers per game, three more than any other team.
When I look at these blown leads, I wonder how many occurred because the team went cold from 3 after gaining the lead? They most likely achieved the 10-15-20 point lead in part due to hot 3 point shooting. It’s common for hot shooting to return to the mean, but how often does it go completely cold, resulting in a loss?
I don’t know about the other 12 blown leads, but against the Hawks, the Celtics made 10-20 of their 3 point attempts in the first half, but only 1-18 in the second half for an overall game performance of 28.9%. (Maybe those numbers are off a bit, I’m going by memory and didn’t verify)
Normally you could expect a downward adjustment from 50% to their average of 39, but they went completely cold. And not just one player, but the entire team. Generally you would expect someone to start hitting their shots again, but that didn’t happen.
That sounds like an outlier to me.
They did adjust and limited their 3 point attempts in the 2nd half from the 1st, and overall they took fewer than their per game average, so they were aware that it wasn’t the best strategy. That doesn’t mean they should abandon the shot completely, especially when it’s an important part of the game plan.
The other side of a blown lead is how hot did the other team get from 3? Against Miami last year, they had role players who got hot. Against the Hawks, well, the Hawks shot 18-36, or 50% for the game. Just like when the Celtics win after shooting 50%, they’re going to lose if they let their opponents do it to them.
Maybe a better defensive effort stifles that?
This Celtics team is better than last year. They are shooting better and winning more games. I’m not going to worry about what happened last year because that was last year. I’m going to look forward to seeing how this season plays out.