I predict something like $75M/3 years. With $39M guaranteed, that comes out to only $18M for years 2 and 3.
I don’t think he is just going to pretend that $39M isn’t on the table, so that unfortunately needs to be included in whatever extension you offer. $25M/yr is palatable and also tradable in a year or two if things aren’t working out.
Can the Celtics realistically keep him at that price though assuming you also keep White? That has to be pushing a 200M+ payroll with a ton of penalties in place. Tatum's supermax will also kick in soon. Ugh
I posted this in the
Jaylen appreciation thread in the context of if/when we may have to trade Jaylen eventually...the Jrue decision will be the first of a number of decisions Brad has to make that would eventually determine if we could keep the gang together for another couple of years and if trading Jaylen may end up becoming an option (in fact it might have been you that brought up the possibility of trading Jaylen, in his appreciation thread of all places
). This is our contract situation from Spotrac:
click to enlarge
If we win a championship this season and want to run it back again next season, the question would be how to keep the players who we won't have under control next year - Jrue being the main one as he has a player option next season for $39.4m, and the others being the bench pieces Brissett (player option $2.5m), Kornet, Mykhailiuk and Stevens (all UFAs), Davison (RFA), Queta (RFA).
We also have to decide what to do with Hauser ($2m club option), and Banton ($2m club option). We probably keep them as they are cheap, Banton may be disposable. If they can keep the gang together for another season, and not give Kornet a pay increase (and you can't blame him for wanting one after being on minimum deals his whole career), and get Jrue to take a more team friendly deal that brings us below the 2nd apron (maybe an extension in the $20-25m range since we would be $12m over the 2nd apron if everyone comes back) then they definitely won't be trading Brown.
2025-26 is the big year because that's when Tatum's supermax becomes eligible to be signed. That's going to be somewhere north of $60m plus incentives since the salary cap will be at least $156.2m by then. That's when tough decisions will have to be made, and the decision that Jrue and the team makes this offseason will factor heavily into that. And the year after that Hauser becomes a FA, he's probably going to want, and deserve, more than the $2m we're paying him now. We also have to decide what to do with White (will probably command more than the $19m he's on now), and Al ($10m). Maybe Derrick doesn't end up qualifying for a max contract...maybe Sam doesn't have to be paid Kyle Korver money...maybe Al takes a vet min if he's even still playing by then. That's going to be the season where they have to make some tough decisions on Jaylen and whether to sell high, break his salary into a couple of tradable pieces or stick with him.
$20m is probably too low for Jrue, unless he decides to take a team friendly deal to keep the gang together. $25m I think is a realistic valuation for him, but of course his option is for nearly $40m, and he would need to calculate if other teams might give him something similar over 3+ years in FA and if he wants to test that instead of staying with us. We have seen players like Hayward and Al chase the money elsewhere. He did say he likes it here and wants to stay, but the Benjamins are going to play a big factor in that...and I'm sure that Brad and his stats nerds have modelled out all the permutations of how to retain those key players and how much they can afford to be paid, or if we do end up overpaying some of them, how fungible those contracts would be
Personally I'd like to keep them all together as long as we possibly can...I think we have something special with this team, tonight's thrashing notwithstanding. Hopefully Brad can figure it out