Post playoff predictions here

[Moranis]

You aren’t going to win an NBA championship with a 6’1” guard as your best player and only all star.

OK this doesn't remotely describe the Jazz though

Also I picked the Bucks

The Jazz best player is a 6’1” guard in Mitchell. I doubt they  get past either of the LA teams to make it to the finals. Quite a few are picking the Jazz to win it all. For the record, I would love for them to win, just don’t see it happening. Need star wing players to go far in the postseason.

Mitchell's height aside, the Jazz had 3 all stars this year and have 2 of the 3 finalists for 6th man of the year.  They don't fit the traditional champion as they lack a top 5ish player, but they are fairly similar to the 3 teams that won a title without a top 5 player i.e. 3 or 4 all star caliber players, a lot of quality legit NBA depth, and a defensive anchor (14 Spurs, 05 Pistons, 79 Sonics).

And their best player is a 7'1 Gobert ('78 Bullets were also in that mould of 3-4 stars and a lot of quality role players FWIW).

I've always felt Hayes was a top 5 player that year.  Dr. J, Kareem, Moses, and arguably Walton (Walton missed a bunch of games which is why I say arguably) were the only guys I think you could clearly say were better than Hayes though I wouldn't nitpick if someone wanted to argue about the scoring guards i.e. Gervin or Thompson.  I just think Hayes was a better defender and more impactful player than those guys.

I felt that '78 and '79 was Gervin's peak and while I was never the highest on him in All-Time drafts, I do think that his massive scoring in a hybrid on/off-ball package holds pretty good value on strong and weak teams, kind of like a homeless man's Kevin Durant before the three point line so I'd take him over Hayes (Gervin led some elite offences during his prime with good but not great support around him). But to me the 4-5 guys who were next level superstars were the 4 you listed and Gervin - all of the others just don't seem THAT good to me with the limited data and film we have.

I think Hayes was an excellent defender, but I'm pretty low on his offence: low efficiency black holes who make a few boneheaded decisions every game when the offence is running through them aren't valuable at all. To me his overall impact is similar to a guy like late-70s Unseld (obviously very different players, but I think they were on a similar level), which takes him out of that inner circle for me.

The Bullets made 3 Finals winning the 1 with Hayes.  He joined the Bullets in 73 and they didn't even lose in the 1st round until 1980 when Hayes was 34.  I just don't think Hayes gets the credit historically he deserves.  Absolutely an elite defender.  He is still 8th all time in defensive win shares (he is 48th overall for win shares).  Elite Rebounder.  6th all time in total rebounds and he is 14th all time in rpg, but only 2 players after him average more (Drummond and Rodman).  He is 11th all time in points scored.    23rd all time with 2 bpg (and they didn't start tracking that until his 6th season - he had more earlier on before he lost some athleticism). 

One of the most underrated players in league history.  Elvin Hayes absolutely was a top 5 player over a several season string including the year the Bullets won the title. 

[Ed Monix]

EAST

Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs Washington Wizards (8 ) -- 4-1
Brooklyn Nets (2) vs Boston Celtics (7) -- 4-1
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Miami Heat (6) -- 4-3
New York Knicks (4) vs Atlanta Hawks (5) -- 3-4

Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (5) -- 4-1
Brooklyn Nets (2) vs Milwaukee Bucks (3) -- 4-3

Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs Brooklyn Nets (2) -- 4-3

WEST

Utah Jazz (1) vs Memphis Grizzles (8 ) -- 4-2
Phoenix Suns (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7) -- 3-4
Denver Nuggets (3) vs Portland Trailblazers (6) -- 2-4
Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs Dallas Mavericks (5) -- 3-4

Utah Jazz (1) vs Dallas Mavericks (5) -- 4-3
Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs Portland Trailblazers (6) -- 4-1

Utah Jazz (1) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7) -- 2-4

FINALS

Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7) -- 2-4

2021 NBA Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

* This estimation obviously doesn't take into account injuries.

[gouki88]

Forgot to post mine.

EAST:
Philly def. Washington 4-1

Brooklyn def. Boston 4-2

Milwaukee def. Miami 4-2

Atlanta def. New York 4-3


Philly def. Atlanta 4-2

Milwaukee def. Brooklyn 4-3


Milwaukee def. Philly 4-3

WEST:
Utah def. Memphis 4-1

Phoenix def. LAL 4-2

Portland def. Denver 4-2

Dallas def. LAC 4-3


Utah def. Dallas 4-2

Phoenix def. Portland 4-2


Utah def. Phoenix 4-3

FINALS:
Utah def. Milwaukee 4-3

CHAMP: Utah Jazz

[SparzWizard]

Round 1
PHI beats WSH in 5.
BKN beats BOS in 4.
MIL beats MIA in 5.
NY beats ATL in 7.

UTA beats GSW in 7/MEM in 5.
LAL beats PHX in 4.
POR beats DEN in 5.
LAC beats DAL in 6.

Semi-Finals
PHI beats NY in 5.
BKN beats MIL in 5.

LAC beats UTA in 6.
LAL beats POR in 5.

Conference Finals
BKN beats PHI in 5.

LAC beats LAL in 6.

NBA Finals
BKN beats LAC in 4.

I have never been so wrong in my life, but I'm glad I have for this because I can't stand LAL (though my reverse jinx worked at least) lol. Come at me guys!

But yeah, I don't think the Clippers are making it but we'll see, still two more games. Still hard to see who comes out in the West. Dallas looks promising. Suns beat up a bad Lakers team and the Nuggets are without Murray who will be missed in the West Semis. I still won't buy into the Jazz just yet. In the East, Brooklyn continues to look godlike with their Big 3 each putting 30+ a night.

[slamtheking]

Round 1
PHI beats WSH in 5.
BKN beats BOS in 5.
MIL beats MIA in 6.
ATL beats NY in 7.

UTA beats GSW/MEM in 5.
PHX beats LAL in 7.
DEN beats POR in 6.
LAC beats DAL in 7.

Semi-Finals
PHI beats ATL in 6.
MIL beats BRK in 7.

UTAH beats LAC in 6.
DEN beats PHX in 5.

Conference Finals
MIL beats PHI in 7.

UTAH beats DEN in 7.

NBA Finals
UTAH beats MIL in 7.

first round over.  figured it was a good opportunity to bump this to see how people's prognostications went.

called the winner in all 8 series and the correct number of games in 5 out of 8.  pretty good I'd say.

next round might not fare as well though

[PhoSita]

First round recap for me.

Series I got wrong:

- I thought GSW would make the 1st round

- Hawks / Knicks

- Suns / Lakers


Smaller things I got wrong:

- BOS managed to take a game off BRK
- MIL swept MIA
- DAL was more competitive than I expected



How I would change my predictions for Round 2 and beyond at this point:


BRK is going to beat MIL in 4.

(note -- I was SO wrong about Milwaukee. Sigh. I hoped they'd be different this time).

PHI over ATL in 6.

BRK over PHI in 5.


PHX over DEN in 6.

UTA over LAC in 7.


PHX over UTA in 6.


BRK over PHX in 5.

(note - yuck. super gross. at least it's not the Lakers, I guess)


In short, enjoy this round and the next in the West because I would bet that's all we're getting as far as good series the rest of the way.

[Moranis]

Sure looks like I misread the Bucks.  I really thought Holiday was going to make a big difference there.  Series isn't over and maybe the Bucks come on in game 3 and 4 and even it back up, but Middleton has to play like an all star and not Carsen Edwards for that to happen.

[gouki88]

Forgot to post mine.

EAST:
Philly def. Washington 4-1

Brooklyn def. Boston 4-2

Milwaukee def. Miami 4-2

Atlanta def. New York 4-3


Philly def. Atlanta 4-2

Milwaukee def. Brooklyn 4-3


Milwaukee def. Philly 4-3

WEST:
Utah def. Memphis 4-1

Phoenix def. LAL 4-2

Portland def. Denver 4-2

Dallas def. LAC 4-3


Utah def. Dallas 4-2

Phoenix def. Portland 4-2


Utah def. Dallas 4-3

FINALS:
Utah def. Milwaukee 4-3

CHAMP: Utah Jazz

Got those two WC series' wrong, should have never underestimated my man Jokic. However, I think I overestimated Tingis Pingis when I thought he'd be able to contribute to a Mavs win.

I've definitely misread the Bucks too. I had the winner of this series making the Finals, but I thought/hoped it would've been Giannis.

[PhoSita]

At least I wasn't alone in thinking Milwaukee was real this year.

[slamtheking]

Round 1
PHI beats WSH in 5.
BKN beats BOS in 5.
MIL beats MIA in 6.
ATL beats NY in 7.

UTA beats GSW/MEM in 5.
PHX beats LAL in 7.
DEN beats POR in 6.
LAC beats DAL in 7.

Semi-Finals
PHI beats ATL in 6.
MIL beats BRK in 7.

UTAH beats LAC in 6.
DEN beats PHX in 5.

Conference Finals
MIL beats PHI in 7.

UTAH beats DEN in 7.

NBA Finals
UTAH beats MIL in 7.

first round over.  figured it was a good opportunity to bump this to see how people's prognostications went.

called the winner in all 8 series and the correct number of games in 5 out of 8.  pretty good I'd say.

next round might not fare as well though

big swing and a miss on that Phx/Den series.  Denver just steamrolled

[Moranis]

Brooklyn over Boston in 6
Milwaukee over Miami in 7
Atlanta over New York in 6
Philly over Washington in 5

Los Angeles over Phoenix in 4
Denver over Portland in 5
LAC over Dallas in 7
Utah over Memphis in 5

Milwaukee over Brooklyn in 6
Philly over Atlanta in 5

Los Angeles over Denver in 6
Los Angeles over Utah in 6

Milwaukee over Philly in 6
Los Angeles L over Los Angeles C in 5

Milwaukee over Los Angeles L in 7

I did really well in the 1st round, getting 7 of 8 winners and many with the correct number of gams.  The series I missed was the Lakers, and that imo was pretty obviously affected by the Davis injury (which occurred in series and not prior so really couldn't be accounted for).  I didn't readjust my predictions after the Lakers lost, but I probably would have picked Denver and gotten that one wrong.  Milwaukee, Philly, and Los Angeles all could still win in the exact number of games I predicted.  Some big game 5's coming up in those.   

Barring more injuries, I think the LA/Utah winner will beat Phoenix and then that team will lose to Milwaukee. 

[Moranis]

So pretty clearly picking Milwaukee over Atlanta.  I'll say 5 games. 

Still think the Clippers will win, though if Leonard doesn't play at all, it will be tough (he is more important than Paul, who I expect back fairly soon). 

[PhoSita]

Man, how injuries have changed the picture.

At this point I really have no idea, but the Suns feel like the most complete and generally healthiest team left.  So I think they're the favorite.


If Kawhi comes back and is anywhere near 100% that changes things a great deal.  But I think Phoenix could still win that series even in that situation.

[wiley]

Adding Leonard back on a so so knee is not as easy as it is for the Suns to add Chris Paul back.

The Clippers, while not as good longterm without Kawhi, were better than ever for the last two games of the Utah series.  But now it will be catching up to them and I predict a 4-1 series win for the Suns if no Kawhi.  (4-2 if Chris Paul misses another couple games.)

4-2 Milwaukee over Hawks...

4-2 Suns over Milwaukee...

The Suns are a totally organized basketball team with all needed elements.

[gouki88]

Forgot to post mine.

EAST:
Philly def. Washington 4-1

Brooklyn def. Boston 4-2

Milwaukee def. Miami 4-2

Atlanta def. New York 4-3


Philly def. Atlanta 4-2

Milwaukee def. Brooklyn 4-3


Milwaukee def. Philly 4-3

WEST:
Utah def. Memphis 4-1

Phoenix def. LAL 4-2

Portland def. Denver 4-2

Dallas def. LAC 4-3


Utah def. Dallas 4-2

Phoenix def. Portland 4-2


Utah def. Phoenix 4-3

FINALS:
Utah def. Milwaukee 4-3

CHAMP: Utah Jazz

Welp.

Milwaukee over Atlanta in 6.

Phoenix over LAC in 7.

Phoenix over Milwaukee in 7.