Every time I see this thread, I keep on thinking it should read "Convince me Markell Fultz is the #1 pick". How many times have some of you seen Fultz actually play? I will fully admit that I have not seen him play, since I unfortunately missed the Washington v UCLA game on national TV. Was that Washington's only nationally broadcasted game?
I definitely am concerned about his leadership, especially since he's supposed to be a point guard. He "led" his team to a 9-22 record. I highly doubt he was playing with 11 or so walk-ons from the local YMCA, so I don't want to hear about him having inferior talent.
In another thread, I saw someone had a link to a Fultz highlight reel that was about 18 minutes long. I gave up watching about half-way through since I believe I had only seen 1 or 2 passes from a POINT GUARD! It seems like every poster is talking about how great of a scorer this kid is. That is great, but can he lead a team, control the tempo of a game, or create better shots for his team?
I have seen Lonzo Ball play many times. He is probably the best PG I have seen since Jason Kidd and Magic. If there is a play that needed to be made, Ball always seemed to be in position to make the play happen, whether it was passing, scoring, rebounding, or blocking a shot. He could control the tempo of a game and created easier shots for his teammates, whether it was in the open or half court. BTW, Ball (3.04) does have a better assist to turnover ratio tan Fultz (1.84).
I know guys come and go in college, so team records should be taken with a grain of salt. Here is UCLA's record for the last three seasons: 22-14, 15-17, and 31-5. Here is Washington's record: 16-15, 19-15, 9-22. Looking from the outside, UCLA was on a downward trend, while Washington showed a slight improvement before this past season. The change in records was dramatic for both of these schools with their star freshmen PG's.
Part of me sees the Fultz v Ball rivalry, as something similar to games 1 and 2 of this Celtics Bulls series. A true PG in Rondo (Ball), who knows how to control a game, absolutely destroyed Isaiah Thomas (Fultz) and the Celtics. I love IT, but he is more of a scorer than a PG and is only a PG by default because of his height.
Nice post and welcome to CB!
I do have some issues with your assertions though...
1. Ball is the best point guard since Jason Kidd and Magic. Well, define best... Do you think he'll be better than CP3, Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Steph Curry, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Damion Lillard? I don't. Something a of those players have in common is that they have all world scoring ability and I'm, not sure that Ball does. If he was as good as those players wouldn't he be the consensus number 1 pick?
So then despite the team record, ATO, charisma, and overall hype surrounding Ball why is he almost unilaterally considered an inferior prospect to Fultz by the draft analysis community? Because "best" isn't the right word to use when describing Ball. It'd be more correct to say "purest" point guard since Kidd and Magic.
Lonzo is capable of running a Kidd and Magic style offense that, aesthetically, is basketball at its purest. But personally I don't think it's necessarily conducive to winning championships. Historically in the playoffs teams that play this way(Kidd's Nets, Jason Williams Kings, Nash's Suns) almost always run into athletic defenses that muck up the game and expose the full-court team's inability to grind out wins when things get tough.
I've watched a fair bit of Fultz and I've watched probably 3 games of Lonzo Ball. The problem is that the Lonzo Ball game that sticks out most in my mind is when he ran into the athletes on Kentucky in the tournament and was run off the floor. When Lonzo ran against a player in De'Aaron Fox that has NBA caliber speed and athleticism he
wilted. Gone was the up and down high flying offense and in its place was a tentative half court heavy attack where his backups Holiday and Alford shined and Lonzo sulked.
He was exposed. He lacked the ability to separate from Fox on offense and the lateral quickness to stay in front of him on defense. Suddenly that ugly three point form that had gone in all year was negated because he actually had an NBA defender in his face harassing him and his low release point. This game was absolutely indicative of what I'd imagine a Lonzo Ball lead team will run into in the playoffs and I just want no part of that in Boston.
2. Fultz's team was garbage in college so his teams will lose in the NBA.So why then do I dismiss Fultz's 9-22 record when I kill Ball for largely just one game? Fultz is clearly a poor leader and we need our point guard to lead the rest of the roster right? Well I harken back to one of Bill Simmons rules From the Book of Basketball: Your best player does not necessarily need to be your leader. If you have a strong locker room culture already in place you don't need for your high-profile rookie to come in and lead things. You need them to come in and dominate their matchup which is something Fultz is capable of on any given night.
I just always go back to the belief that if you have Fultz on your team his skill set will fit in around what you already have. He doesn't ask much of his teammates, he just asserts his will on the other team and I am 100% confident that if you put him on the Celtics, Fultz wouldn't change a thing about his own approach but our rotation would fit in around him.
With Ball we'd have to change the system from top to bottom and read headlines about Lavar barking about how its the team's fault if things don't go well. No thanks, I'll take Fultz over Ball 10 times out of 10.
P.S. I've probably never pushed an agenda harder on Celticsblog so people can feel free to bring up these posts if Ball ends up being a stud and Fultz flops. I'm just completely confident in this line of thinking.