Can we stop with the notion that having top picks is the end game?

[Monkhouse]

Disclaimer: Of course having top picks are useful, I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying draft picks are always a crap shoot and it depends on the player, environment, and the coaching to provide success to the player.

Klay Thompson, Draymond, Jokic, Millsap, Giannis, Paskal S, and a few others are all prime examples that top picks aren't guaranteed.

Thoughts on this?

[celticinorlando]

Disclaimer: Of course having top picks are useful, I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying draft picks are always a crap shoot and it depends on the player, environment, and the coaching to provide success to the player.

Klay Thompson, Draymond, Jokic, Millsap, Giannis, Paskal S, and a few others are all prime examples that top picks aren't guaranteed.

Thoughts on this?

Top three picks in this draft are far and above anyone else...that said...Boston can still get three very good players for depth OR they can package to move up or trade for a vet. They are in good shape.

[PhoSita]

Having an MVP caliber player to build the team around is the end game, the question is how to get there.


Best way is to either draft one or put together the kind of assets you need in order to trade for one. 

High draft picks provide the highest probability of drafting either a MVP caliber player or players who may serve as valuable assets in a trade for such a player.

[Donoghus]

It's not the end game but it greatly increases the ability of a team to acquire a transcendent talent given that they'll be getting the pick of the litter. 

Basketball, relative to other team sports, relies extra heavily on talent.  The "sure thing" talent is more often going to be found near the top of the draft.  Lebron, Duncan, Shaq, Ewing, Magic etc.....

You can certainly find top notch talent later in the draft but you typically have a much wider margin for error that it won't pan out. 

Top picks are guaranteed but if I'm building a team in the NBA, it's a heckuva lot better to have one than not have one.

[td450]

Disclaimer: Of course having top picks are useful, I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying draft picks are always a crap shoot and it depends on the player, environment, and the coaching to provide success to the player.

Klay Thompson, Draymond, Jokic, Millsap, Giannis, Paskal S, and a few others are all prime examples that top picks aren't guaranteed.

Thoughts on this?

You are correct in citing Giannis and Jokic to show that sometimes incredible talents just develop from left field.

If a player like that evolves, they provide a sort of gravitational pull to the resources required to win. Both Giannis and Jokic fell to franchises that were on the fringes, and the necessary help has moved towards them, seemingly from nowhere, because everyone knows that they will give you a chance to win it all. That's how it works.

[wiley]

Disclaimer: Of course having top picks are useful, I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying draft picks are always a crap shoot and it depends on the player, environment, and the coaching to provide success to the player.

Klay Thompson, Draymond, Jokic, Millsap, Giannis, Paskal S, and a few others are all prime examples that top picks aren't guaranteed.

Thoughts on this?

Yes agree.  But, GM's probably whiff less often in the top 3 than in the vast ocean of last 45 picks picked.

add Butler, Gobert and IT to the list...and more.  This draft looks like one of those with a mix of duds and gems that will cause GM's consternation in the coming years...

[CelticsElite]

Disclaimer: Of course having top picks are useful, I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying draft picks are always a crap shoot and it depends on the player, environment, and the coaching to provide success to the player.

Klay Thompson, Draymond, Jokic, Millsap, Giannis, Paskal S, and a few others are all prime examples that top picks aren't guaranteed.

Thoughts on this?

Top three picks in this draft are far and above anyone else...that said...Boston can still get three very good players for depth OR they can package to move up or trade for a vet. They are in good shape.

they said the same about Fultz and ball. Where are they now?

[td450]

Disclaimer: Of course having top picks are useful, I'm not disputing that. I'm simply saying draft picks are always a crap shoot and it depends on the player, environment, and the coaching to provide success to the player.

Klay Thompson, Draymond, Jokic, Millsap, Giannis, Paskal S, and a few others are all prime examples that top picks aren't guaranteed.

Thoughts on this?

Top three picks in this draft are far and above anyone else...that said...Boston can still get three very good players for depth OR they can package to move up or trade for a vet. They are in good shape.

they said the same about Fultz and ball. Where are they now?

There can only be 2-3 players (or less) that are truly MVP level dominant in the league, so the math seems pretty obvious. Getting a top pick only increases your chances somewhat. So does having a great GM and great scouting. It helps to be LA, because stars like to live there. The rest is random luck.

You still play the better odds, whether they are good or not.