Remembering random bad draft picks: Fab Melo

[saltlover]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

There will be a never-ending list of excuses from the Danny Ainge Bromance Club on this board if he doesn't - and experience suggests clearly that he won't.

No way man. I stand by Danny out of my own fandom but if he drafts a guy in 2017 that he is going to let walk in his 4th year, he should follow right behind that guy since that would mean all the asset hoarding amounted to nothing.

So far, Jaylen is looking promising, Jeff Green is Jeff Green, KO and Smart are role players. He's 1 for 4 in the lottery.

You know that he didn't pick Jeff Green, right?  Seattle told Ainge who to pick, and the trade happened after the draft because the NBA has stupid rules.  And if you demand to attribute Green to him, you can't yell at him about KO (or missing Giannis) because that was technically Dallas' pick (but Ainge told Dallas who to pick, same as Seattle).  You shouldn't assign Jeff to Ainge, but if you do, then you can't hold him responsible for KO.

[Ilikesports17]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

there is no garuntee that a superstar exists in this draft, or that he will be available when the Celtics are on the clock.

Dude, if the 2013 draft had Giannis hiding in Greece, this draft should have a couple more stars in it than in THAT draft at least. There's reports that GM's around the league believe that there's more than a couple potential all stars in this draft.  Unless Cousins signs that 5 year extension right now and becomes available for both the Nets picks, I don't think Ainge is dealing the pick... he won't win that trade.

If a superstar goes outside the lotto I find it hard to blame a GM in the top 5 for missing him.

Thus I will look at the last 12 evaluatable drafts (Id say 2015 is evaluatable) for this analysis.
year;last superstar taken in top 10;when taken;percent chance worst team in league had to pick him

2003; Dwayne Wade;4th; 100%
2004; Dwight Howard; 1st; 25%
2005; Chris Paul; 4th; 100%
2006; no superstars; n/a; 0%
2007; Durant; 2nd; 46.5%
2008; Westbrook; 4th; 100%
2009; Steph Curry; 7th; 100%
2010; Demarcus Cousins/PG; 5th/10th; 100%
2011; Kyrie Irving(?); 1st; 25%
2012; Anthony Davis; 1st; 25%
2013; no superstars; n/a; 0%
2014; Joel Embiid; 3rd; 64.2%
2015; Kristaps Porzingis; 4th; 100%

So to do some kinda bull**** stuff with the statistics: you have a 56.86% chance to have a chance to draft a superstar if you have the worst record in the NBA.

In super-hyped years (2003, 2007 and 2014) you have a 70.2 chance to have a chance to land one.

There is no guarantee that there will be a superstar reasonably attainable for Danny with the #1 lotto odds.

Edit: Just occurred to me, I stopped one draft short of the super-hyped 2003 draft. I will include it in the analysis now.

[CelticGuardian]

Does it feel weird to hate on our GM for a guy he picked 20th 4-5 years ago when we are second in the east with almost a guaranteed top 4 pick on the way?

We are talking a scenario where Danny whiffs on the two BKN picks, which is not out of the realm of possibility. I think we can agree that any GM that can manage that, should not be a GM. 

"Yeah he didnt take advantage of the assets when he had them but he still had them"

If that ends up being the story of his asset hoarding and this "Lttle Contender" roster. It shouldn't be enough to save his job IMO.

[CelticGuardian]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

there is no garuntee that a superstar exists in this draft, or that he will be available when the Celtics are on the clock.

Dude, if the 2013 draft had Giannis hiding in Greece, this draft should have a couple more stars in it than in THAT draft at least. There's reports that GM's around the league believe that there's more than a couple potential all stars in this draft.  Unless Cousins signs that 5 year extension right now and becomes available for both the Nets picks, I don't think Ainge is dealing the pick... he won't win that trade.

If a superstar goes outside the lotto I find it hard to blame a GM in the top 5 for missing him.

Thus I will look at the last 12 evaluatable drafts (Id say 2015 is evaluatable) for this analysis.
year;last superstar taken in top 10;when taken;percent chance worst team in league had to pick him

2003; Dwayne Wade;4th; 100%
2004; Dwight Howard; 1st; 25%
2005; Chris Paul; 4th; 100%
2006; no superstars; n/a; 0%
2007; Durant; 2nd; 46.5%
2008; Westbrook; 4th; 100%
2009; Steph Curry; 7th; 100%
2010; Demarcus Cousins/PG; 5th/10th; 100%
2011; Kyrie Irving(?); 1st; 25%
2012; Anthony Davis; 1st; 25%
2013; no superstars; n/a; 0%
2014; Joel Embiid; 3rd; 64.2%
2015; Kristaps Porzingis; 4th; 100%

So to do some kinda bull**** stuff with the statistics: you have a 56.86% chance to have a chance to draft a superstar if you have the worst record in the NBA.

In super-hyped years (2003, 2007 and 2014) you have a 70.2 chance to have a chance to land one.

There is no guarantee that there will be a superstar reasonably attainable for Danny with the #1 lotto odds.

Edit: Just occurred to me, I stopped one draft short of the super-hyped 2003 draft. I will include it in the analysis now.

So if he whiffs, we're just going to go "ehh, no problem Danny.. Its not like we've spent about half a decade waiting on the next Celtics hall of famer, just go see if BKN does that same trade again for IT4 and Horford"?

[Ilikesports17]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

there is no garuntee that a superstar exists in this draft, or that he will be available when the Celtics are on the clock.

Dude, if the 2013 draft had Giannis hiding in Greece, this draft should have a couple more stars in it than in THAT draft at least. There's reports that GM's around the league believe that there's more than a couple potential all stars in this draft.  Unless Cousins signs that 5 year extension right now and becomes available for both the Nets picks, I don't think Ainge is dealing the pick... he won't win that trade.

If a superstar goes outside the lotto I find it hard to blame a GM in the top 5 for missing him.

Thus I will look at the last 12 evaluatable drafts (Id say 2015 is evaluatable) for this analysis.
year;last superstar taken in top 10;when taken;percent chance worst team in league had to pick him

2003; Dwayne Wade;4th; 100%
2004; Dwight Howard; 1st; 25%
2005; Chris Paul; 4th; 100%
2006; no superstars; n/a; 0%
2007; Durant; 2nd; 46.5%
2008; Westbrook; 4th; 100%
2009; Steph Curry; 7th; 100%
2010; Demarcus Cousins/PG; 5th/10th; 100%
2011; Kyrie Irving(?); 1st; 25%
2012; Anthony Davis; 1st; 25%
2013; no superstars; n/a; 0%
2014; Joel Embiid; 3rd; 64.2%
2015; Kristaps Porzingis; 4th; 100%

So to do some kinda bull**** stuff with the statistics: you have a 56.86% chance to have a chance to draft a superstar if you have the worst record in the NBA.

In super-hyped years (2003, 2007 and 2014) you have a 70.2 chance to have a chance to land one.

There is no guarantee that there will be a superstar reasonably attainable for Danny with the #1 lotto odds.

Edit: Just occurred to me, I stopped one draft short of the super-hyped 2003 draft. I will include it in the analysis now.

So if he whiffs, we're just going to go "ehh, no problem Danny.. Its not like we've spent about half a decade waiting on the next Celtics hall of famer, just go see if BKN does that same trade again for IT4 and Horford"?

Im not talking about whiffing. Theres different levels of whiffing. Its impossible to evaluate that right now.

Im saying that based on the last ten drafts there is only a 57% chance that a superstar will even be available.

If you count this draft in the same superstar rich vein as 2003 2007 2014 (something I dont do) you still only have a 70% chance to have a chance to pick a superstar. Its not garunteed. If Ainge is unable to get a superstar that doesnt exist I dont advocate firing him.

[CelticGuardian]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

There will be a never-ending list of excuses from the Danny Ainge Bromance Club on this board if he doesn't - and experience suggests clearly that he won't.

No way man. I stand by Danny out of my own fandom but if he drafts a guy in 2017 that he is going to let walk in his 4th year, he should follow right behind that guy since that would mean all the asset hoarding amounted to nothing.

So far, Jaylen is looking promising, Jeff Green is Jeff Green, KO and Smart are role players. He's 1 for 4 in the lottery.

You know that he didn't pick Jeff Green, right?  Seattle told Ainge who to pick, and the trade happened after the draft because the NBA has stupid rules.  And if you demand to attribute Green to him, you can't yell at him about KO (or missing Giannis) because that was technically Dallas' pick (but Ainge told Dallas who to pick, same as Seattle).  You shouldn't assign Jeff to Ainge, but if you do, then you can't hold him responsible for KO.

Yeah sure, whatever my point is not that he's a bad drafter rather that I will not excuse bad drafting in these next two years.

I think the trade to send Perkins away for Green is actually more egregious than the drafting of Green. Perk had one more year left in him(OKC run). Yeah, I'm sorry to break it to you but not all moves by Ainge are a thing of beauty.

[saltlover]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

There will be a never-ending list of excuses from the Danny Ainge Bromance Club on this board if he doesn't - and experience suggests clearly that he won't.

No way man. I stand by Danny out of my own fandom but if he drafts a guy in 2017 that he is going to let walk in his 4th year, he should follow right behind that guy since that would mean all the asset hoarding amounted to nothing.

So far, Jaylen is looking promising, Jeff Green is Jeff Green, KO and Smart are role players. He's 1 for 4 in the lottery.

You know that he didn't pick Jeff Green, right?  Seattle told Ainge who to pick, and the trade happened after the draft because the NBA has stupid rules.  And if you demand to attribute Green to him, you can't yell at him about KO (or missing Giannis) because that was technically Dallas' pick (but Ainge told Dallas who to pick, same as Seattle).  You shouldn't assign Jeff to Ainge, but if you do, then you can't hold him responsible for KO.

Yeah sure, whatever my point is not that he's a bad drafter rather that I will not excuse bad drafting in these next two years.

I think the trade to send Perkins away for Green is actually more egregious than the drafting of Green. Perk had one more year left in him(OKC run). Yeah, I'm sorry to break it to you but not all moves by Ainge are a thing of beauty.

I didn't say they were.  I'm just saying when you're complaining about draft picks, you can't include Jeff Green.  It's pretty simple.

Also, Perk was a free agent who played all of 17 more regular season games for OKC after the trade.  Further, we lost in the playoffs because Rondo got his arm ripped out of his socket by wade. Now, true, maybe if Perk were still on the Celtics he'd have tossed Wade into the stands or something.  But there are like 100,000 threads about that trade on this site, so please, let's not bring it up again.

Danny did not draft Jeff Green.  Please don't say he did.  It's annoying when that happens.

[Ilikesports17]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

There will be a never-ending list of excuses from the Danny Ainge Bromance Club on this board if he doesn't - and experience suggests clearly that he won't.

No way man. I stand by Danny out of my own fandom but if he drafts a guy in 2017 that he is going to let walk in his 4th year, he should follow right behind that guy since that would mean all the asset hoarding amounted to nothing.

So far, Jaylen is looking promising, Jeff Green is Jeff Green, KO and Smart are role players. He's 1 for 4 in the lottery.

You know that he didn't pick Jeff Green, right?  Seattle told Ainge who to pick, and the trade happened after the draft because the NBA has stupid rules.  And if you demand to attribute Green to him, you can't yell at him about KO (or missing Giannis) because that was technically Dallas' pick (but Ainge told Dallas who to pick, same as Seattle).  You shouldn't assign Jeff to Ainge, but if you do, then you can't hold him responsible for KO.

Yeah sure, whatever my point is not that he's a bad drafter rather that I will not excuse bad drafting in these next two years.

I think the trade to send Perkins away for Green is actually more egregious than the drafting of Green. Perk had one more year left in him(OKC run). Yeah, I'm sorry to break it to you but not all moves by Ainge are a thing of beauty.

I didn't say they were.  I'm just saying when you're complaining about draft picks, you can't include Jeff Green.  It's pretty simple.

Also, Perk was a free agent who played all of 17 more regular season games for OKC after the trade.  Further, we lost in the playoffs because Rondo got his arm ripped out of his socket by wade. Now, true, maybe if Perk were still on the Celtics he'd have tossed Wade into the stands or something.  But there are like 100,000 threads about that trade on this site, so please, let's not bring it up again.

Danny did not draft Jeff Green.  Please don't say he did.  It's annoying when that happens.

It is really shocking how often he gets attributed with that pick.

[BitterJim]

No it means that 21 persons much more qualified than us and with more info in their hands decided that they had better options

but maybe they don't have a clue.....

That's the point. I sure as hell hope, that Danny with the best resources available to mankind can GET A FRIGGEN' CLUE and can draft a superstar for once with a #1-#4 pick. It will me indefensible if he whiffs now.

Look at our past glory days. Every championship roster had a Hall of Fame level player that was drafted by the C's (applies to the league in general). Unless you're LeBron James and can make super teams on a whim, this is an important step in all rebuilds.

There will be a never-ending list of excuses from the Danny Ainge Bromance Club on this board if he doesn't - and experience suggests clearly that he won't.

And if he does, there will be a never-ending list of reasons that the pick was too obvious to miss/not as good as people say/probably not Danny's idea/actually in an alternate dimension for a moment where Danny wasn't our GM from the Danny Ainge Haters Club

[tankcity!]

Never understood why Ainge picked this dude. I already gave up on the player the moment we drafted him. I thought Sullinger would have at least made up for the pick, sigh.

[celtics2030]

I know sometimes we tend to be armchair GM's and criticize draft picks even if we have no idea what we are talking about (ahem: EVERY celtics fan when we took Rozier) but sometimes Danny Ainge makes a pick soo bad that it reminds us that sometimes even Danny will make a terrible terrible pick,

I'm pretty sure every single person knew that this pick would not turn out well, and it seems like Ainge acknowledged how bad of a pick it was after giving up on him after 1 season. Yeah he was tall and he looked like he had some defensive potential..I remember that draft..I was so happy that we got Jared Sullinger late, and then was pumped because I thought the Celtics would take Perry Jones..then they announced the pick and I was like ****!!

Just thought I would remind us of a bad memory of the Celtics, and how sometimes Danny is really really wrong on some things.

nah your giving people in here too much credit. They thought he was going to be a stud.

[CelticPride2016]

Does it feel weird to hate on our GM for a guy he picked 20th 4-5 years ago when we are second in the east with almost a guaranteed top 4 pick on the way?

You are probably my favorite Celtics Blogger or it's a battle between you and Rollie.

Your posts tend to be atmospheric and thought provoking rather than black or white.

The bottom line is that Danny got us title #17. He is not perfect and I think he and Doc ran us into the ground. I think the last several years of the Big Three run were brutal. It was too serious. There was no more life in the team. It had been allowed to deteriorate into okay, let's bring it back another year.

The last let's bring it back a year turned us into a pure treadmill team. Danny waited too long.

But, then came the Brooklyn deal and Brad Stevens.

It doesn't matter if Ainge is a genius or lucky, but he somehow hit a grand slam in terms of the general rebuild. We are currently tied with the Clippers for the 5th best record. We are now only 2.5 games behind the Cavs and 3.5 behind the Rockets.

Thus, and this is remarkable, there are only two teams left we seem incapable of catching, the Spurs and Warriors.

Does it really matter if Danny is skilled or lucky? I think timing and context is crucial in forming sound opinions. Now is clearly the wrong time to critique Danny Ainge. I do think he has a blind spot for centers and maybe that was shown in his drafting of Fab Melo. But because Danny has shown an ability to be both skilled and lucky as a GM, I am not going to bet against him.

Danny Ainge has at least a five year window to totally mess things up before there will be any real reason to get a new GM. He is going nowhere for a long time, knock on wood for his health. He's also very competitive. His ceiling as GM is to become Red Auerbach 2.0.

The first Ainge title was about proving he could do it. This time Danny is not attempting a three year all-in window. He is trying to make us the next San Antonio Spurs, a serious NBA threat for over ten years. He has earned the right to see this through. In Danny We Trust makes good sense right now.