Author Topic: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(TIME TO REVEAL THE WINNER!!!)  (Read 191490 times)

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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #315 on: August 23, 2019, 11:16:17 AM »

Offline Who

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I agree with Somebody that Bird's D was better in his earlier years. He was simply more quicker and active. He was slowing down bit by bit through the mid 80s on defense (not offense) before his defense fell apart later on.

I have been watching a bunch of games from the 80s over the summer (I am fed up with all the 3s and PnRs of todays league!) and it is noticeable how different Larry Bird's speed is when helping on defense and crashing the backboards. He was much more active.

It is not a coincidence his 3 All Defense selections were 81-84. Bird was still a good team defender in 85-88 but he wasn't as good as he was in his first few years (Bird upped his offense [scoring and playmaking] these years which made up for this).

Kinda like how LeBron started to gradually slow on defense from 2013 onwards. Defensive activity declining bit by bit year after year. Got a bit older. Got a bit slower. Those miles started to add up.

That just happened quicker with Bird.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 11:23:16 AM by Who »

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #316 on: August 23, 2019, 11:19:26 AM »

Offline Who

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LeBron was the guy I was most unsure of how to build around when entering the draft (if I were to land a pick high enough to get him).

Play him at SF. Go big and play him at PG. Go small and play him at PF. What type of big man would he play well with? Based on his level of success with his previous bigs (star ones, role player ones, older ones like Shaq). What type of PG would LeBron best play with? The wings were easier. More straight forward figure out which ones of them would work best with LBJ.

Although I have a firm idea now on how I would build around him but I was genuinely confused about how to do it prior to the draft. Far more so than any other player.

Largely because of how ball-dominant LeBron is.

...........

Also, I had no idea how I would build around Wilt. Never thought of drafting him. Bird was my first choice. My 2nd choice hasn't been picked yet. I'll say it when he is selected. Probably would been considered the biggest reach of the 1st since I was at #5. My 3rd choice was Hakeem.

Starting to get an idea of what I want to do with Wilt now though.

Fair points regarding LeBron but I picked him at 2 mostly because I felt like it left me open to more possibilities about how to set up the rest of my team.

I understand the “doesn’t work well with other stars” narrative, but I think his 2013 season proved he could to a much larger extent than people think. It’s also his most efficient and least ball dominant season of his prime.

His 30.15 usage rate is well below almost all of Jordan’s, Shaq’s and Kobe’s. I think he really showed he could let another star do his thing, while being able to move the ball around and serving as an elite defender and 3 point shooter that year as well.

I don't like usage rate as a statistic. I don't think it does a great job of showing how much someone has the ball in their hands. How long they hold the ball, how much they dribble it.

I rate LeBron's ball dominance ahead of those players (MJ, Shaq, Kobe) because of how much LeBron orchestrates things and how much he dribbles & probes defenses with his high PnR game.

MJ's ball dominance was similar before the Triangle offense. Before he started to share it more and used his off-ball movement more. I'd say Kobe benefited the same from the Triangle. That year he had with Rudy T, Kobe had the ball much more than normal.

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #317 on: August 23, 2019, 11:24:50 AM »

Offline Who

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Are we going to start a new thread for round 2, or are we just using this one?
Using this one. Same thread for the whole draft.

Usually there is a 2nd thread later on for discussion. Once teams start to take shape. Too early after 1 round. And then maybe some other threads later on to rate teams after the draft and discussion is done.

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #318 on: August 23, 2019, 11:26:59 AM »

Offline Somebody

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4. Slight reach. Bird has a top 5 offensive peak but it didn’t match with his best defensive seasons in 80-84. Not sure if all time offense and above average defense (not elite or great) equals top 4.

Not sure how old you are Somebody, but this take makes me think you are fairly young and never got to see Bird.

Bird was all-time great offensively, from his sophomore season on and was a great team defender up until he got hurt in 1988. His All-Defense 2nd team selections were based not on Bird's individual defense but how, in an era of illegal defense calls and straight man to man defense, he was able to funnel his man into help, play passing lanes off ball, double team hard at the right time and help from the weak side. This was especially important as teams during that time used to love sticking one man on one side of the floor and four men on the other and let the player iso. Helping at the right time was huge.

Bird could score in an elite manner from everywhere. And he was already playing great defense in a team oriented style, something done way more after the defensive rule changes. His passing was better than LeBron's as was his rebounding.

Then you have his intangibles. He was as clutch as there was in this league ever. He was an incredible team leader that commanded respect. He made everyone who played with him better, something a lot of current stars don't really do. And he could blend styles of play like no other.

Bird was far from a reach at 4.
I'm going to be starting college this fall so you got me lol. Bird was not all-time great offensively starting from his sophomore season-from what I've seen and read he was a bit too rash in decision making and took a bit too many tough shots, which hampered his efficiency. His offensive tendencies to shoot outside and finish with crafty moves also limited his free throw attempts, which spike efficiency, and Bird's lack of them hurts him relative to other great scorers. He became all time great offensively from the 84-85 season by cleaning up his shot selection and improving his shot making, but unfortunately wasn't the same defensive savant by then. Really think he's a stretch to be picked at #4, just my opinion.
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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #319 on: August 23, 2019, 11:31:23 AM »

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I don't actually think this past season was Kawhi's best season.  Either of his last two "full" seasons in San Antonio he was better in my opinion (higher WS/48, higher VORP, BPM, etc.), plus he played more games so you get more out of him.  he also was better awarded those seasons finishing in the top 3 of MVP and winning his 2nd DPOY the first year and finishing 3rd the last full year in San An.  And that last year there, they easily could have won the title had Kawhi not gone down in game 1 of the WCF so I don't even know that you can say well he won the title this year so he was better this year.

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing when I was thinking about drafting Kawhi.

(1) 2019 - worst regular season of the 3 years but phenomenal postseason, incredible numbers and led a good but unexceptional team to a title
(2) 2017 - phenomenal year but season ending injury in postseason (which I have a hard time looking past)
(3) 2016 - his passing was his worst. Least success in terms of bringing his team together. Most iso-dependent and least team orientated on the offensive side of the floor.

I decided 2019 because of the postseason. That carried the most weight with me.

Also it was his 3rd year at near MVP level. That carried weight with me too. Even though we are looking at individual seasons, the years around point to whether something was a fluke or not. How sustainable it was. How well it would translate to other teams and different roles.

So I decided I didn't care about the 20 missed regular season games and rated his postseason leading a team a Championship over his two other postseasons by a large degree. I prefer to think of these guys as healthy (right or wrong).

But yeah, Kawhi's season were uneven.

That did give me pause when thinking about drafting him before deciding to go ahead with it if he were available in the 2nd round and deciding on the 2019 season as my pick.

I will choose the 2018-19 season, and while it's tempting to pick the other two seasons he won the DPOY, the 18-19 one truly stands out among the rest.

As you mentioned, the magical post season run was just too hard to ignore. 30 points a game in that run, doing it efficiently, and doing it anywhere from the floor. You get that Kawhi in the Playoffs, you have a shot at winning anything.

This is also the season where Kawhi ascended to a higher level. This was the year that he legitimately made a case of being the best player of the league, mainly because of his playoff run, and winning the title.

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PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Shareef Abdur-Raheem / Ben Simmons
C: Jermaine O'neal / Ben Wallace

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #320 on: August 23, 2019, 11:34:03 AM »

Offline Somebody

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6. Reach. Magic’s offense was incredible-he led one of the greatest offensive dynasties (even better than Bird’s Celtics) if not the greatest in his prime. However, his ball dominance and only average defense doesn’t endear me to the idea of picking him at #6.
I'm interested in this ball dominance you think Magic had.  At his absolute peak he only had a usage of 26.3 and his career usage is only 22.3.  I suspect those are both the lowest of any player that has been drafted so far and any player that will likely be drafted in round 2 (and perhaps round 3 as well).  Those Lakers teams thrived on ball movement and fast breaks.  Yes, Magic got a lot of assists, but he absolutely moved the ball and did so with ease.  He was never a black hole or a ball stopper.  I've honestly never heard Magic described as ball dominant and am curious why you believe that was the case.
As Who said above, usage rate isn't the best stat to measure how much of the time a player has the ball in his hands. This is a much better statistic imo: http://www.backpicks.com/2017/10/16/offensive-load-and-adjusted-tov/, it measures a player's offensive load on a team level, which in the link shows Nash having the highest offensive load on those Suns teams despite his usage rate saying otherwise. From what I've seen of Magic he's quite similar in this regard, and in his earlier years it was even slightly detrimental to his teams at times (his adjusted TO rate was ranked in the fifth percentile in the 1984 season), with his teammates which are similar in terms of level when compared to the players we'll likely draft in this game ramping up their numbers and even efficiency when he was out (small sample size, but it does show a young Magic not hitting his offensive peak yet). His prime years were one of the best offensive stretches though, with a claim to be the greatest with his combination of volume, efficiency and creation.
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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #321 on: August 23, 2019, 11:35:01 AM »

Offline Somebody

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I agree with Somebody that Bird's D was better in his earlier years. He was simply more quicker and active. He was slowing down bit by bit through the mid 80s on defense (not offense) before his defense fell apart later on.

I have been watching a bunch of games from the 80s over the summer (I am fed up with all the 3s and PnRs of todays league!) and it is noticeable how different Larry Bird's speed is when helping on defense and crashing the backboards. He was much more active.

It is not a coincidence his 3 All Defense selections were 81-84. Bird was still a good team defender in 85-88 but he wasn't as good as he was in his first few years (Bird upped his offense [scoring and playmaking] these years which made up for this).

Kinda like how LeBron started to gradually slow on defense from 2013 onwards. Defensive activity declining bit by bit year after year. Got a bit older. Got a bit slower. Those miles started to add up.

That just happened quicker with Bird.
Mind telling me where to watch such games? I'm definitely interested in watching them next summer lol.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #322 on: August 23, 2019, 11:35:08 AM »

Offline RPGenerate

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On Kawhi, he's definitely a bit of a stretch this early in the draft IMO. While he had a truly great season last year, I still feel like there is several other active players I would have gone with before Kawhi.
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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #323 on: August 23, 2019, 11:36:26 AM »

Offline Somebody

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On Kawhi, he's definitely a bit of a stretch this early in the draft IMO. While he had a truly great season last year, I still feel like there is several other active players I would have gone with before Kawhi.
Absolutely, and probably a dozen or two retired players as well.
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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #324 on: August 23, 2019, 11:37:09 AM »

Offline Who

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4. Slight reach. Bird has a top 5 offensive peak but it didn’t match with his best defensive seasons in 80-84. Not sure if all time offense and above average defense (not elite or great) equals top 4.

Not sure how old you are Somebody, but this take makes me think you are fairly young and never got to see Bird.

Bird was all-time great offensively, from his sophomore season on and was a great team defender up until he got hurt in 1988. His All-Defense 2nd team selections were based not on Bird's individual defense but how, in an era of illegal defense calls and straight man to man defense, he was able to funnel his man into help, play passing lanes off ball, double team hard at the right time and help from the weak side. This was especially important as teams during that time used to love sticking one man on one side of the floor and four men on the other and let the player iso. Helping at the right time was huge.

Bird could score in an elite manner from everywhere. And he was already playing great defense in a team oriented style, something done way more after the defensive rule changes. His passing was better than LeBron's as was his rebounding.

Then you have his intangibles. He was as clutch as there was in this league ever. He was an incredible team leader that commanded respect. He made everyone who played with him better, something a lot of current stars don't really do. And he could blend styles of play like no other.

Bird was far from a reach at 4.
I'm going to be starting college this fall so you got me lol. Bird was not all-time great offensively starting from his sophomore season-from what I've seen and read he was a bit too rash in decision making and took a bit too many tough shots, which hampered his efficiency. His offensive tendencies to shoot outside and finish with crafty moves also limited his free throw attempts, which spike efficiency, and Bird's lack of them hurts him relative to other great scorers. He became all time great offensively from the 84-85 season by cleaning up his shot selection and improving his shot making, but unfortunately wasn't the same defensive savant by then. Really think he's a stretch to be picked at #4, just my opinion.

You are viewing only Bird's scoring here when rating his overall offense. Add the scoring and passing together and you have one of the best offensive player ever.

Right from day one.


...............

* 3 straight MVPs 84-86
* Runner up for MVP 81-83
* Legit MVP candidate as a rookie (finished 4th and was overlooked at 4. Should have been either 1 or 2 next to Kareem)
Then 3rd in 87 and 2nd again in 88.


That is an incredible run of individual dominance over his first 9 years. 3 times the best. 4 times second best. Once 3rd and once 4th (and he was overlooked being as low as four) .... heck, the year Bird was 3rd in 1987 he should have finished 2nd ahead of MJ (MJ still to selfish at that point).

.........

Bird lacks for longevity due to injuries but in his prime or peak ... my god what a player.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 11:45:17 AM by Who »

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #325 on: August 23, 2019, 11:39:59 AM »

Offline Who

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I agree with Somebody that Bird's D was better in his earlier years. He was simply more quicker and active. He was slowing down bit by bit through the mid 80s on defense (not offense) before his defense fell apart later on.

I have been watching a bunch of games from the 80s over the summer (I am fed up with all the 3s and PnRs of todays league!) and it is noticeable how different Larry Bird's speed is when helping on defense and crashing the backboards. He was much more active.

It is not a coincidence his 3 All Defense selections were 81-84. Bird was still a good team defender in 85-88 but he wasn't as good as he was in his first few years (Bird upped his offense [scoring and playmaking] these years which made up for this).

Kinda like how LeBron started to gradually slow on defense from 2013 onwards. Defensive activity declining bit by bit year after year. Got a bit older. Got a bit slower. Those miles started to add up.

That just happened quicker with Bird.
Mind telling me where to watch such games? I'm definitely interested in watching them next summer lol.

There are loads of old games on youtube.

Here are a few channels with a number of games on them
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZT20r41IGXXr9HAhEhKNNA/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/Hal15Greer/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/dmichael100/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/Torontos/videos
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfkIy1h-t6s57z7qOPhyiLA/videos
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZoUNQNXEhoK0P12uMSpTBg/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/drazen1948/videos


There is a load more out there. People who only have 1 or 2 games. Some who follow MJ's Bulls and have loads of them. One guy has bunch of different D'Antoni Suns ones. Older games are harder to find but if you put in the year and the team name you can find some interesting ones that are not on those channels.

Sorry it's a bit messy. I am not good at doing the links on this forum. But there is a few channels there you could try for old games.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 11:49:13 AM by Who »

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #326 on: August 23, 2019, 11:45:42 AM »

Offline Somebody

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4. Slight reach. Bird has a top 5 offensive peak but it didn’t match with his best defensive seasons in 80-84. Not sure if all time offense and above average defense (not elite or great) equals top 4.

Not sure how old you are Somebody, but this take makes me think you are fairly young and never got to see Bird.

Bird was all-time great offensively, from his sophomore season on and was a great team defender up until he got hurt in 1988. His All-Defense 2nd team selections were based not on Bird's individual defense but how, in an era of illegal defense calls and straight man to man defense, he was able to funnel his man into help, play passing lanes off ball, double team hard at the right time and help from the weak side. This was especially important as teams during that time used to love sticking one man on one side of the floor and four men on the other and let the player iso. Helping at the right time was huge.

Bird could score in an elite manner from everywhere. And he was already playing great defense in a team oriented style, something done way more after the defensive rule changes. His passing was better than LeBron's as was his rebounding.

Then you have his intangibles. He was as clutch as there was in this league ever. He was an incredible team leader that commanded respect. He made everyone who played with him better, something a lot of current stars don't really do. And he could blend styles of play like no other.

Bird was far from a reach at 4.
I'm going to be starting college this fall so you got me lol. Bird was not all-time great offensively starting from his sophomore season-from what I've seen and read he was a bit too rash in decision making and took a bit too many tough shots, which hampered his efficiency. His offensive tendencies to shoot outside and finish with crafty moves also limited his free throw attempts, which spike efficiency, and Bird's lack of them hurts him relative to other great scorers. He became all time great offensively from the 84-85 season by cleaning up his shot selection and improving his shot making, but unfortunately wasn't the same defensive savant by then. Really think he's a stretch to be picked at #4, just my opinion.

You are viewing only Bird's scoring here when rating his overall offense. Add the scoring and passing together and you have one of the best offensive player ever.

Right from day one.


...............

* 3 straight MVPs 84-86
* Runner up for MVP 81-83
* Legit MVP candidate as a rookie (finished 4th, was overlooked at 4 and should have been either 1 or 2 next to Kareem)
Then 3rd in 87 and 2nd again in 88.


That is an incredible run of individual dominance over his first 9 years. 3 times the best. 4 times second best. Once 3rd and once 4th (and he was overlooked being as low as four) .... heck, the year Bird was 3rd in 1987 he should have finished 2nd ahead of MJ (MJ still to selfish at that point).
Scoring is very important lol. Bird wasn't miles ahead of the other all time offensive greats when it comes to passing to make up for his deficiencies in scoring, especially in his earlier days when he wasn't as good at making inefficient shots compared to his prime with no real way of ramping it up if he's cold (can't draw 10+ FTs like other offensive greats even if he has a bad game shooting wise). Does offense that's a rung below all time great combined with all-time creation skills push his offense in the early days to top 5 all time, where he's competing against amazing scoring/efficiency/creation profiles in the primes of Jordan/LeBron/Magic ,an unmatched combination of volume and high efficiency scoring in 2000 Shaq, and finally the complete package of our very own prime Larry Bird? I'm talking about 81-84 Bird offensively, not 85-88 Bird.
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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #327 on: August 23, 2019, 11:46:43 AM »

Offline Somebody

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I agree with Somebody that Bird's D was better in his earlier years. He was simply more quicker and active. He was slowing down bit by bit through the mid 80s on defense (not offense) before his defense fell apart later on.

I have been watching a bunch of games from the 80s over the summer (I am fed up with all the 3s and PnRs of todays league!) and it is noticeable how different Larry Bird's speed is when helping on defense and crashing the backboards. He was much more active.

It is not a coincidence his 3 All Defense selections were 81-84. Bird was still a good team defender in 85-88 but he wasn't as good as he was in his first few years (Bird upped his offense [scoring and playmaking] these years which made up for this).

Kinda like how LeBron started to gradually slow on defense from 2013 onwards. Defensive activity declining bit by bit year after year. Got a bit older. Got a bit slower. Those miles started to add up.

That just happened quicker with Bird.
Mind telling me where to watch such games? I'm definitely interested in watching them next summer lol.

There are loads of old games on youtube.

Here are a few channels with a number of games on them
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZT20r41IGXXr9HAhEhKNNA/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/Hal15Greer/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/dmichael100/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/Torontos/videos
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfkIy1h-t6s57z7qOPhyiLA/videos
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZoUNQNXEhoK0P12uMSpTBg/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/drazen1948/videos


There is a load more out there. People who only have 1 or 2 games. Some who follow MJ's Bulls and have loads of them. One guy has bunch of different Steve Nash ones. Older games are harder to find but if you put in the year and the team name you can find some interesting ones that are not on those channels.

Sorry it's a bit messy. I am not good at doing the links on this forum. But there is a few channels there you could try for old games.
Thanks! I'll definitely go and take a look.
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Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #328 on: August 23, 2019, 11:56:03 AM »

Offline Moranis

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6. Reach. Magic’s offense was incredible-he led one of the greatest offensive dynasties (even better than Bird’s Celtics) if not the greatest in his prime. However, his ball dominance and only average defense doesn’t endear me to the idea of picking him at #6.
I'm interested in this ball dominance you think Magic had.  At his absolute peak he only had a usage of 26.3 and his career usage is only 22.3.  I suspect those are both the lowest of any player that has been drafted so far and any player that will likely be drafted in round 2 (and perhaps round 3 as well).  Those Lakers teams thrived on ball movement and fast breaks.  Yes, Magic got a lot of assists, but he absolutely moved the ball and did so with ease.  He was never a black hole or a ball stopper.  I've honestly never heard Magic described as ball dominant and am curious why you believe that was the case.
As Who said above, usage rate isn't the best stat to measure how much of the time a player has the ball in his hands. This is a much better statistic imo: http://www.backpicks.com/2017/10/16/offensive-load-and-adjusted-tov/, it measures a player's offensive load on a team level, which in the link shows Nash having the highest offensive load on those Suns teams despite his usage rate saying otherwise. From what I've seen of Magic he's quite similar in this regard, and in his earlier years it was even slightly detrimental to his teams at times (his adjusted TO rate was ranked in the fifth percentile in the 1984 season), with his teammates which are similar in terms of level when compared to the players we'll likely draft in this game ramping up their numbers and even efficiency when he was out (small sample size, but it does show a young Magic not hitting his offensive peak yet). His prime years were one of the best offensive stretches though, with a claim to be the greatest with his combination of volume, efficiency and creation.
gotta watch the games.  Magic, definitely turned it over a fair amount, but he really wasn't ball dominant.  Those Lakers teams moved the ball a lot.  Ran on fast break a lot.  Outside of Denver, the Lakers were the highest scoring team in the league throughout much of the 80's (led the league a couple of times).  Despite having such a prolific offense, they were also generally better than the league average in opponents ppg.  In other words, they were a prolific offense, but didn't get overwhelmed defensively.  Now obviously Kareem and their other great defenders helped make up some for Magic's less than stellar defense, but a very large part of the Lakers success was just how good Magic was offensively and how disruptive his size was defensively.  Magic absolutely knew how to effectively use his massive size advantage on both ends of the floor. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: 2019 Historical Draft Thread(Round 1 over)
« Reply #329 on: August 23, 2019, 11:57:41 AM »

Offline RPGenerate

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It'll be interesting to see how younger people's team (like myself) will compare to some of the older folks and their team. It'll be cool to see the differences in team building philosophy.
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PG: Dennis Johnson / Jo Jo White / Stephon Marbury
SG: Sidney Moncrief / World B. Free
SF: Chris Mullin / Ron Artest
PF: Detlef Schrempf / Tom Chambers / Buck Williams
C: Ben Wallace / Andrew Bynum