As I've said in the Memphis thread, I'm not so sure that pick rolling over is going to create any greater value. What if they have a Kings or Nets type turn around when they unload Gasol and Conley for assets. Or what if they land Zion this year and he is awesome right out the gate and they just keep getting better and better. The 9th pick this year might end up being the best value that pick ever has.
What theoretical trades could you see them getting for Gasol and Conley that would allow them to turn it around next season? Conley has a 32 million dollar contract next year, and I think has 20k guaranteed the following season. He is also 31 so any rebuilding team is not going to want him. Is he even a positive trade asset? Gasol is 34 and has been really lousy the last month plus. If they got expiring contracts and a mid first round pick for either of those guys that would be a steal.
Then what is the rest of their roster that could take a leap? Obviously Jackson is a really nice piece, but I don't even know who their second best young player is? Kyle Anderson at 25? Dillon Brooks? It has to be one of the bleakest situations in the league right now.
Also I am honestly surprised as anyone by the Kings success, but they are at least doing it on the backs of high lottery picks in hield, fox and bagley and another lottery pick in WCS.
They don't have to turn it around next year as the pick is top 6 protected. That gives them 2 years to acquire and add assets. The Kings still had Cousins this time 2 seasons ago. They turned it around basically in that time as very few players still remain from before that season and they were able to turn it around using the assets from that trade (and they never truly bottomed out and they still owed the Sixers a pick swap).
So say they trade Gasol at the deadline and pick up a young player and a 1st round pick (not an elite young player, but say WCS quality level), which would be a fairly reasonable trade value wise. Say they move Conley next summer and pick up another young player and a 2020 1st round pick. Again that seems like a fairly reasonable trade. So they would have 2 picks in 2019 and 2 picks in 2020, one of each would be a top 5 pick. So entering the 20/21 season they would have Jackson, 2 other high level lottery picks, a couple of late 1st rounders, and whatever young players they get for Conley and Gasol. They could also use their cap space as a dumping ground and pick up other assets. That is the exact model the Kings followed. If they do well in the lottery, those other 2 picks could be something like Zion Williamson and Anthony Edwards/Jaden McDaniels/Cole Anthony, put them with Jackson and some other young players, and they have the makings of a team that might still be in the lottery but may not be horrible (much like the Kings this year).
The 15/16 Nets only had 1 player (RHJ) that is currently on their team. They turned it around very quickly and that is without any top tier lottery picks. They used their expiring contracts and cap space, to land Russell, and then did very well drafting late in the draft. They actually now have incentive to tank as they finally own their own picks, and yet they are currently a playoff team.
There is always the risk on future picks as you just never know what a team will look like 2 seasons from now. The Nets and Kings both turned it around very quickly by making some smart decisions and quite simply by just acquiring as many assets as they could. And they both were correcting past blunders in that time (the Kings also wasted a lottery pick on Papa...). Now maybe Memphis doesn't follow that sort of pattern and they are still terrible in 2 years, but they don't really have the incentive to be terrible in 2021 unless that pick has transferred before then