I would be ecstatic if:
-Memphis finished 6th-7th worst and rolled over,
-Sacto finished 13th worst behind both Miami and Orlando,
-And the LAC/Celts picks both land between #20-22.
I don't think that's asking too much. Most important to me is Memphis rolling over. The picks in the 20s will be what they are. Sacto at #13 or #14 won't make too much of a difference unless we jump into the top 3, or 4, or whatever it is nowadays, based on that small difference.
I am still hoping, no, downright expecting, that we will trade Sacto/LAC/Celts, Williams, Yabu, and 2 of Tatum/Brown/Smart/Memphis for AD.
They Memphis pick rolling over immediately lowers its value.
Immediately.
A guaranteed pick in a good draft is much much more valuable than an unknown pick in an unknown draft.
The pick is better for Boston, by a long shot, for it to convert this year.
And I do not see 2 of Tatum, Brown and Smart being traded, Tatum yes, other 2 and 3 picks, nope.
you're about the only one who thinks:
A) the deal with NO is better with the pick conveying this year at #9 than as a top-6 protected next year and unprotected the following year. Knowing this pick is very likely in the NO deal and the salary and quality of the player picked won't help us retain Smart for salary or talent purposes, I'm leaning towards it rolling over since it'll be viewed as a better asset than a #9 pick this year. Memphis is not improving anytime soon so that pick is NOT decreasing in value. it's not like the Clips pick which would convert to second rounders -- this one becomes unprotected in 2 years. Memphis has no really good young talent to build with and no one they pick at #6-#8 this year would change that if they keep the pick. Conley's likely traded so they become even worse next year --> no one they bring in would be as good as Conley. Memphis is also not a big FA landing spot and that's if they had a team good FAs would want to join, which they will not have.
B) the deal with NO won't include Tatum and Smart. C's have no other tradeable players making enough money to match Davis' salary for trading purposes. A S&T of Rozier in this deal isn't happening -- way too complicated to make it work.
C) the deal with NO not including every pick we have this year -- this includes the Mem pick whenever it actually conveys. Only way we don't give up all the picks is if Sac's pick jumps to #2 or #3 post-lottery and it becomes a much more valuable asset. C's have no future picks but their own that they can use to entice NO to let us keep one this year and if they did let us keep one, it'd most likely be the latest one we have this year.
Only way C's aren't coughing up Tatum (or Brown), Smart, Williams and all the firsts this year is if AD states he absolutely will not resign here and if that comes out, I don't see any deal happening. Tatum/Brown's more valuable than a one-year rental of AD.
A) Having a known is always better than a future unknown. Remember when the Sacramento pick was going to be top 6? yeah, so does every other GM in the league. Having a top 10 pick NOW, with the 3.7 mill ish salary attached to it is far more attractive to the Celtics.
And in regards to NOP, That would give them 2 top 10 picks in The same draft, that is fantastic to have that. That can potentially move them up even higher.
NOP doesnt want to lose forever, they need to have a fast rebuild, having players drafted together that can play together will speed them up.
And again, having a known top 10 NOW, is far superior to having a complete roll of the dice next season. Memphis could just as easily pick a player that shocks everyone and that team starts winning. (see Donovan Mitchell) or just add pieces together and have it all click (See LAC) and have a pick that is 10 places lower than the 9th now.
NOP wants that pick to translate this year so they can have it.
b) Complicated deals are not impossible deals.
But lets assume the Celtics get the 9th, 13th and 22nd picks to add in a deal.
That is roughly 9.3 mill in salary (120% of rookie scale)
Tatum, Yabusele and Williams adds another 12.8 bringing the combined total to 22.1
Davis`deal is at 25.4 (assuming he waives trade kicker)
That is a legal deal. (trade value withing 125% + 100,000) also, Boston is allowed to add up to 3 million cash in the deal
So again, having that pick translate this year essentially allows the celtics to keep smart and brown. again, HUGE win for the Celtics.
C. The ideal deal, for all parties, is Memphis pick (9th), Sacramento pick (wherever not /1), LAC pick (22ish), and Boston 2020 first rounder (25 plus), Tatum, Yabusele, Williams and Cash.
That lets NOP pick
7th - their pick
9th - Memphis pick
13th - sacramento pick
22nd pick
28th pick 2020
Tatum (potential superstar)
Williams and Yabusele (kids with different levels of potential)
capspace.
That is by far the best deal out there, no one can come close to offering 2 LOTTO picks, as will as a top 25 pick, AND a pick again next season AND 3 young players, 1 who they really want who has superstar potential and is only 21 years old, and a potential defensive beast of a young center.
No one tops that offer.
NYK with the Number 1 pick does not trump that offer.