Draft day trades: recent history

[Boris Badenov]

A lot of discussion is focusing on Danny trading picks - usually to move up - in this draft. There's a lot of speculation about what it'd take to move up, etc., so I've put together a brief recent history of such trades, to give context on (a) what it takes to move, and (b) how these trades play out.

I'm trying to look only at trades of pick-for-pick(s), maybe with filler - rather than trades where a decent player moved one way or the other.

I'm also ignoring for the most part trades involving only 2nd rounders.

2014:

#11 (McDermott) for #16 (Nurkic), #19 (G. Harris) and 2015 2nd rounder
#10 (Payton) for #12 (Saric), future 1st, future 2nd
#24 (Napier) for #26 (Hairston), #55, future 2nd

2013:

#9 (Burke) for #14 (Muhammad), #21 (Dieng)
#13 (Olynyk) for #16 (Noguiera), 2 future 2nds
#16 (Nogueira) for #18 (Larkin), #44 (Muscala)
#27 (Gobert) for #46 (Green), cash
#26 (Roberson) for #29 (Goodwin), cash

2012:

#17 (Zeller) for #24 (Cunningham), #33 (James) and #34 (Crowder)
#12 (Lamb) for #14 (Henson), 2nd rounder (other players involved)

2011:

#25 (Brooks) for #27 (JJJ) and 2nd rounder
#23 (Mirotic) for #28 (Cole) and 2nd rounder

2010:

#18 (Bledsoe) for #32 (Pittman) and Daequan Cook
#27 (Crawford) and cash for #24 (D. Jones)
#23 (Booker) and #56 (Ndiaye) for #30 (L. Hayward) and #35 (Bjelica)

2009:

#24 (Mullens) for #25 (Beaubois) and 2nd rounder

Before then I'm being a bit pickier and focusing only on the "marquee" deals involving valuable picks rather than late first rounders.

2008:

#3 (Mayo) plus players for #5 (Love) and players
#11 (Bayless) and filler for #13 (Rush)

2006:

#2 (Aldridge) and filler for #4 (T. Thomas) and filler
#13 (Sefolosha) for #16 (Carney) and future 2nd

I'll stop there. I have my own thoughts on "lessons" from these trades, but I'll hold off until others weigh in.

[Ilikesports17]

Thank you for typing all this out. TP for that. I had been going back through draft day trades on wikipedia to try an get a feel and its nice to have all the info right here.

What I took from it is that the top 5 and really all the way out to about 8 is pretty impenetrable. After that its not all that difficult to move into the 9-14 range.

Nor is it difficult to move about the 20s.

[jpotter33]

I still think Bradley and 16 for Stephenson and 9 would be a steal for us, especially if one of WCS, SJohnson, or Turner is still available there.

[celticmania]

I'd do Bradley, Olynyk and 16 for #6 to the kings and with talks of Kristaps Porzingis possibly being taken in the top 3, we would have a chance to snatch Emmanuel Mudiay or even D Russell if we use future picks to move up a little higher.

[YeezusChrist]

I still think Bradley and 16 for Stephenson and 9 would be a steal for us, especially if one of WCS, SJohnson, or Turner is still available there.

I wish this trade would go down but it seems too much in our favor. Stephenson is a hound on defense and can be a huge factor on offense he just was a terrible fit in charlotte
maybe Bradley, 16, and 28 for Lance, 9 , and a future 2nd

[hwangjini_1]

tp for the great homework on this thread, which is your MO by now. thanks.

what struck me was that trading up with only/mostly picks allows a team to only move up 2-4 slots in most cases. that means the leap for the celtics from #16 could be expensive. to move beyond the #12-13 pick will take a pile of assets.

but ainge has resources and assets, so he might be able to make that jump.

it was also interesting to see that some teams are happy to bascially sell off late first round picks. i would guess they didnt like the available talent and didnt like having to pay guaranteed money for that talent. so if ainge sees someone he likes late in the first round, the #33 and stuffing may be enough to move up.

[LarBrd33]

Yah. Gives you an idea of what 16 and 28 could get you... Probably a couple spots.

[Boris Badenov]

Yah. Gives you an idea of what 16 and 28 could get you... Probably a couple spots.

I didn't go through all of the late 1st trades, but in some recent years those late 1st picks have actually had negative value because you're committing to a salary slot for someone who will probably suck. So, you have tax-paying contenders who are basically willing to pay teams to take a 28-30th pick off their hands.

And while I didn't look at player-for-pick swaps in detail, I don't recall any instances in which a 28th pick fetched a decent player in return.

The other thing I noticed is that many of the trades that seem closest to what we want to do - like the McDermott and Burke deals - have ended up being losers for the trader-up. It's the Belichick principle at work...it's a crapshoot so two rolls are better than one.

[Beat LA]

I still think Bradley and 16 for Stephenson and 9 would be a steal for us, especially if one of WCS, SJohnson, or Turner is still available there.

I take it that you're not interested in Vonleh, then?

[jpotter33]

I still think Bradley and 16 for Stephenson and 9 would be a steal for us, especially if one of WCS, SJohnson, or Turner is still available there.

I take it that you're not interested in Vonleh, then?

Eh, I could take him or leave him. I'm really not as concerned with the PF position right now with Sully and KO, in addition to Vonleh being years of development away still. Plus, we're getting KLove this offseason anyways! 

[Beat LA]

So, wait - you're saying that Chicago's acquisition of Doug McDermott didn't pan out?

[Ilikesports17]

So, wait - you're saying that Chicago's acquisition of Doug McDermott didn't pan out?

That acquisition was about clearing cap not about getting McDermott.