Author Topic: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver  (Read 16234 times)

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2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« on: April 06, 2020, 06:52:32 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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UTAH - action781
Jason Kidd (2002-03)
Reggie Miller (1999-00)
Peja Stojakovic (2003-04)
Al Horford (2017-18)
Shaquille O’Neal (1999-2000)
Rajon Rondo (2011-12)
Trae Young (2019-20)
Marcus Smart (2019-20)
Jaylen Brown (2019-20)
Jamal Mashburn (2002-03)
PJ Tucker (2017-18)
Carlos Boozer (2006-07)
Tristan Thompson (2015-16)
Mehmet Okur (2006-07)

VS

DENVER - RPGenerate
Gary Payton (1999-2000)
Richard Hamilton (2005-2006)
Carmelo Anthony (2012-2013)
Draymond Green (2015-2016)
Tim Duncan (2001-2002)
Kyrie Irving (2017-2018)
Raja Bell (2006-2007)
Glenn Robinson (2000-2001)
Anthony Mason (2000-2001)
DeMarcus Cousins (2016-2017)
Steve Francis (2000-2001)
Danny Green (2014-2015)
Robert Covington (2018-2019)
Zydrunas Ilgauska (2005-2006)
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 12:17:20 PM by nickagneta »

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2020, 12:18:28 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Thread is now open.

action781 and RPGenerate may post some information about their team and anything they want to talk about regarding the matchup

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2020, 12:23:36 PM »

Offline RPGenerate

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I guess I'm quite the underdog, but I won't be giving up without a fight  ;D. When does the voting take place?
2023 No Top 75 Fantasy Draft Los Angeles Clippers
PG: Dennis Johnson / Jo Jo White / Stephon Marbury
SG: Sidney Moncrief / World B. Free
SF: Chris Mullin / Ron Artest
PF: Detlef Schrempf / Tom Chambers / Buck Williams
C: Ben Wallace / Andrew Bynum

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2020, 12:35:42 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I guess I'm quite the underdog, but I won't be giving up without a fight  ;D. When does the voting take place?
Votes will need to be PMed to me by 6:00PM EDT tomorrow, Wednesday April 8.

Remember the ballot should simply be your selection to win and the best of 7 series outcome.

IE... Knicks 4-2

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2020, 12:36:45 PM »

Offline Somebody

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I guess I'm quite the underdog, but I won't be giving up without a fight  ;D. When does the voting take place?
Who said that? ;)
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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2020, 01:20:52 PM »

Online Roy H.

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My concerns with Denver were the personalities.  If they finished with the second best record in the west, though, they are obviously hitting on all cylinders.  I will be evaluating purely on talent, without putting any emphasis on chemistry.

That makes it much closer.


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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2020, 01:36:57 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I think for me this series might very well hinge on whether Duncan can actually limit Shaq. My foggy memory seems recall Pop doing everything he could to hide Duncan from having to defend Shaq during his peak. Makes me wonder if Boogie needs to be promoted into the starting lineup in place of Dray, moving Duncan over to PF.

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2020, 02:09:51 PM »

Offline theswitch

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I think for me this series might very well hinge on whether Duncan can actually limit Shaq. My foggy memory seems recall Pop doing everything he could to hide Duncan from having to defend Shaq during his peak. Makes me wonder if Boogie needs to be promoted into the starting lineup in place of Dray, moving Duncan over to PF.

Agreed. I was trying to nudge for a Shaq-stopper via trade for Denver, but that's going to be the biggest challenge. I'm not sure Cousins is a great answer either.

I've very interested in how Utah adapts its lineup to hide Peja on Melo.
2023 Historical Draft: Toronto Raptors

Point Guard: Anfernee Hardaway, Fat Lever, Terrell Brandon
Shooting Guard: Paul Westphal, Paul Pressey
Small Forward: Marques Johnson, Danny Granger
Power Forward: Jermaine O'Neal, Bobby Jones, Kiki Vandeweghe
Center: Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2020, 02:12:08 PM »

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I think for me this series might very well hinge on whether Duncan can actually limit Shaq. My foggy memory seems recall Pop doing everything he could to hide Duncan from having to defend Shaq during his peak. Makes me wonder if Boogie needs to be promoted into the starting lineup in place of Dray, moving Duncan over to PF.
To be fair they had Robinson as their centre. I think Duncan would do well against Shaq in this format - his 2002 and 2003 iterations had him ravaging frontcourts with an excellent combination of power and skill (FWIW he did well against prime Shaq in 2002).
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2020, 04:15:49 PM »

Offline action781

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So many even matchups in this one.  I want to get something going here so I'll start with a pretty vanilla and even-keeled overview of some of the key starting/positional matchups before I come back later tonight with more of my team's strategy and why I think Utah will win the series.

Kidd/Rondo v Payton/Kyrie
Both teams' position is solid overall defensively and solid table setters.  Utah having the edge in passing while Denver has the edge in scoring off the bench.

Reggie v Rip
Similar caliber players both well suited as complementary scorers.

Peja v Carmelo
Both of these players are pretty similar in that they each provide a lot of offense and not a lot of defense.  They are both on their teams for the scoring and spacing they provide.  Some might disagree, but I might give Carmelo the slight edge as an overall player, however it's very close.  Carmelo finished #3 in MVP voting this season and Peja finished #4 (each w/ 1 first place vote and each of their best finishes in that regard).  In this game, both players will get good looks being set up by teammates while Carmelo being asked to do a little more creating, something he's good at.  Neither player will do that good of a job defending the other, maybe slight edge Carmelo there.  Peja is the more efficient scorer for sure though.

Peja:  24.2ppg on 48.0% / 43.3% / 92.7% shooting (62.4 TS%)
Carmelo:  28.7ppg on 44.9% / 37.9% / 84.8% shooting (56.0% TS)

I like to think that Kidd/Rondo and the rest of the team will get the most out of Peja's efficiency, probably even improving upon it.  Carmelo should get a little bump too without 5 pairs of eyes on him.  Although how much of a threat is he to pass when he puts his head down and the ball on the floor?

Horford v Draymond
AGAIN, two similar type players that are both great in enabling teammates to exceed while being skilled passers and strong defenders.

Shaq v Duncan
Two elite scorers and very strong defenders at their position.  Duncan playing out of position will certainly hurt him trying to defend Shaq.  But can Shaq step out 15-18 feet and defend Duncan there?

The big issue I see here is that Shaq is an elite foul drawer.  I don't think Denver can win by allowing Duncan to give up easy buckets to Shaq in order to stay on the floor (on top of the easy ones he'll already get just by being him).  They also can't win by keeping Duncan OFF the floor.  So they'll need to rely on big minutes from their bench frontcourt in this one.

Bench and Other Thoughts
Cousins will have a big role to play in this series.  How people think he'll match up with Shaq I think will be a huge deciding factor.

6th man Jaylen Brown can give Utah some good minutes on Carmelo.

If Draymond does end up pushed to the bench because of the Shaq dilemma, I think he'd be used really well defending Boozer and Utah's second-unit p&r.

I think a slight predicament (more of a less ideal matchup than a predicament) for Denver is that they have some great 1-1 defenders in Gary Payton, Draymond, Raja, Danny Green, and Covington... however none of them can defend the guy where the a lot of Utah's offense will run through. 

I think Okur's floor spreading ability (career 37.5% 3 point shooter I think he'd be even better today too) will cause troubles for Cousins.  But Cousins can give it right back to him on the other end.
2020 CelticsStrong All-2000s Draft -- Utah Jazz
 
Finals Starters:  Jason Kidd - Reggie Miller - PJ Tucker - Al Horford - Shaq
Bench:  Rajon Rondo - Trae Young - Marcus Smart - Jaylen Brown -  Peja Stojakovic - Jamal Mashburn - Carlos Boozer - Tristan Thompson - Mehmet Okur

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2020, 04:52:05 PM »

Offline RPGenerate

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So many even matchups in this one.  I want to get something going here so I'll start with a pretty vanilla and even-keeled overview of some of the key starting/positional matchups before I come back later tonight with more of my team's strategy and why I think Utah will win the series.

Kidd/Rondo v Payton/Kyrie
Both teams' position is solid overall defensively and solid table setters.  Utah having the edge in passing while Denver has the edge in scoring off the bench.

Reggie v Rip
Similar caliber players both well suited as complementary scorers.

Peja v Carmelo
Both of these players are pretty similar in that they each provide a lot of offense and not a lot of defense.  They are both on their teams for the scoring and spacing they provide.  Some might disagree, but I might give Carmelo the slight edge as an overall player, however it's very close.  Carmelo finished #3 in MVP voting this season and Peja finished #4 (each w/ 1 first place vote and each of their best finishes in that regard).  In this game, both players will get good looks being set up by teammates while Carmelo being asked to do a little more creating, something he's good at.  Neither player will do that good of a job defending the other, maybe slight edge Carmelo there.  Peja is the more efficient scorer for sure though.

Peja:  24.2ppg on 48.0% / 43.3% / 92.7% shooting (62.4 TS%)
Carmelo:  28.7ppg on 44.9% / 37.9% / 84.8% shooting (56.0% TS)

I like to think that Kidd/Rondo and the rest of the team will get the most out of Peja's efficiency, probably even improving upon it.  Carmelo should get a little bump too without 5 pairs of eyes on him.  Although how much of a threat is he to pass when he puts his head down and the ball on the floor?

Horford v Draymond
AGAIN, two similar type players that are both great in enabling teammates to exceed while being skilled passers and strong defenders.

Shaq v Duncan
Two elite scorers and very strong defenders at their position.  Duncan playing out of position will certainly hurt him trying to defend Shaq.  But can Shaq step out 15-18 feet and defend Duncan there?

The big issue I see here is that Shaq is an elite foul drawer.  I don't think Denver can win by allowing Duncan to give up easy buckets to Shaq in order to stay on the floor (on top of the easy ones he'll already get just by being him).  They also can't win by keeping Duncan OFF the floor.  So they'll need to rely on big minutes from their bench frontcourt in this one.

Bench and Other Thoughts
Cousins will have a big role to play in this series.  How people think he'll match up with Shaq I think will be a huge deciding factor.

6th man Jaylen Brown can give Utah some good minutes on Carmelo.

If Draymond does end up pushed to the bench because of the Shaq dilemma, I think he'd be used really well defending Boozer and Utah's second-unit p&r.

I think a slight predicament (more of a less ideal matchup than a predicament) for Denver is that they have some great 1-1 defenders in Gary Payton, Draymond, Raja, Danny Green, and Covington... however none of them can defend the guy where the a lot of Utah's offense will run through. 

I think Okur's floor spreading ability (career 37.5% 3 point shooter I think he'd be even better today too) will cause troubles for Cousins.  But Cousins can give it right back to him on the other end.
TP for the analysis. I think I said this when our teams were only half finished, but I think our teams are built remarkably similar. It's a fun matchup. I'll be interested to do a more indepth look at how Shaq and Duncan matched up head-to-head.
2023 No Top 75 Fantasy Draft Los Angeles Clippers
PG: Dennis Johnson / Jo Jo White / Stephon Marbury
SG: Sidney Moncrief / World B. Free
SF: Chris Mullin / Ron Artest
PF: Detlef Schrempf / Tom Chambers / Buck Williams
C: Ben Wallace / Andrew Bynum

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2020, 10:08:51 PM »

Offline action781

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Why Utah will beat Denver
Part 1:  The Dominance of Shaq

I think many of you recall how dominant Shaq was in his prime.  Shaq won 120 out of 121 MVP votes as he dominated the league in 2000.  It’s a big reason why you collectively voted Utah to the #1 overall seed in the West.

A skilled player at 7’1” and 325 lbs, Shaq was simply too strong and too dominant for anyone too small (aka everyone) to guard him.  Shaq is the reason why teams in the era were forced to roster multiple 7-footers at 250+ lbs — the NBA’s frenzied desperation of holding Shaq to an average game of 57 FG% on heavy volume.  Hefty 7-footers like Luc Longley, Todd MacCollough, Rasho Nesterovic, Jason Collins, and Matt Geiger were called into service for that task, but ended up looking more like the animal scraps fed to the tigers at the G.W. Zoo than they did professional basketball players when matched up against Diesel.  Even bigger guys like Rik Smits could only stay on the floor for 4 minutes per foul committed in the 2000 NBA Finals where Shaq racked up 38ppg on 61.1% shooting.  That made DPOY Dikembe Mutombo look good only surrendering 33ppg on 57 FG% in the following 2001 NBA Finals.

I won’t get into how Shaq averaged a league-leading 29.7ppg and 57.4 FG%.  It’s not important to mention the 13.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 3.0 blocks, while only 2.8 turnovers.  And you all don’t care about how he averaged a league-leading and historic 30.6 PER, 9.3 BPM, 9.0 VORP, and 18.6 Win Shares, every one of those ranking as top 40 all-time great seasons in their respective statistic.  Those are just numbers.  What’s important for you all to do is to remember and imagine what a dominating force Shaq was that the NBA could not handle.

So who’s the best option for Denver to throw at Shaq?  The 6’10” Boogie Cousins who surrenders at least 50 lbs to The Big Aristotle?  The Boogie Cousins who isn’t even good at guarding guys is own size?  Is Denver’s 2001-02 Tim Duncan their best bet?  I think that would be troubling for Denver since he wasn’t even the 2001 or 2002 SA Spurs best bet at guarding Shaq in the two playoff series where they couldn't top Shaq's Lakers.  If only we could parse out the possessions Duncan guarded Shaq over the years to see how those numbers actually look.  If anyone can do that, that’d be huge.  I mean hugely helpful, not to be confused with the huge numbers we’d see Shaq have during those times.

I mentioned in another post that Shaq is not only dominant offensively, but also dominant defensively.  He was #2 in DPOY voting in 2000 w/ 21 first choice votes, had an insane DRtg of 95, while leading the league in defensive win shares with 7.0.  It’s sometimes hard to remember how springy he was back then, blocking the shots of big men and driving guards alike at a clip of 3 per game.  Also worth noting that he finished better than 2000 Gary Payton, who is known as an elite defensive specialist, in just about every single defensive metric or vote that season.

I don't want to rely too heavily on Shaq to win the Western Conference.  It wasn't necessarily my plan coming into the playoffs.  It just would be poor management not to in this particular matchup.
2020 CelticsStrong All-2000s Draft -- Utah Jazz
 
Finals Starters:  Jason Kidd - Reggie Miller - PJ Tucker - Al Horford - Shaq
Bench:  Rajon Rondo - Trae Young - Marcus Smart - Jaylen Brown -  Peja Stojakovic - Jamal Mashburn - Carlos Boozer - Tristan Thompson - Mehmet Okur

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2020, 10:24:03 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I think for me this series might very well hinge on whether Duncan can actually limit Shaq. My foggy memory seems recall Pop doing everything he could to hide Duncan from having to defend Shaq during his peak. Makes me wonder if Boogie needs to be promoted into the starting lineup in place of Dray, moving Duncan over to PF.
To be fair they had Robinson as their centre. I think Duncan would do well against Shaq in this format - his 2002 and 2003 iterations had him ravaging frontcourts with an excellent combination of power and skill (FWIW he did well against prime Shaq in 2002).

I can't get the names Rasho Nesterovic and Tiago Splitter out of my head.  Even worse, I hear them in Steven A Smith's voice.

Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2020, 10:49:31 PM »

Online Roy H.

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True or false:  Assuming that Duncan defends Shaq, the biggest single mismatch in the two starting lineups is Carmelo vs. Peja


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Re: 2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2020, 10:53:43 PM »

Offline action781

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Why Utah will beat Denver
Part 2:  More to the Offensive Attack

Gary Payton is The Glove — arguably the best point guard defender in this game.  Defense can only go so far though.  In the 4 games that Kidd and Payton went H2H in Payton’s 2000 season, Kidd averaged 16.8 points (42.3% fg) and 11.8 assists with only 2 turnovers.  I don’t deny that Payton really is arguably the best point guard defender in this game.   I just don’t think it necessarily translates to a shut down of elite players like Kidd.  I’m not particularly looking for points from Kidd in our offense loaded with so much scoring talent, but I am looking for him to play smart basketball making good passes and protecting the ball which are the most important stats those 4 games show me.

Yes, Shaq will feast.  Plenty of times in straight post ups.  But I don’t think its wise to be too predictable with your offense.  It allows defenses to game plan easier.  So we'll run some p&r action with Kidd (where Shaq will also feast).  And Shaq will get additional chances to feast as a secondary option in the offensive set I drew up while ago



For this matchup, we’re going to throw a wrinkle in the original play — we’re going to put Reggie as the 3 and put Peja as the 2.  I'll give Rip Hamilton props that I think he would do a decent job fighting through that initial triple screen for Reggie.  Carmelo however?



So for this matchup, we’ll have the deadly, super efficient, B2B 3-point champion Peja Stojakovic running the apathetic Carmelo Anthony off that triple screen to start our offensive attack.  Maybe Peja gets a high efficiency look himself there.  Maybe Horford's wide elbows catch Rip and Reggie gets free on the other side.  Maybe Kidd catches just the subtlest of misplacements by a defender to throw a lob/oop to the high IQ Horford or Shaq.  Lots of options here.

Off the bench, Jaylen Brown will be getting key 6th man minutes in this series as a guy who can offensively add a dimension of dynamic cutting and finishing, which I've got several players in Shaq, my point guards, and Horford who are adept at finding.  At the SF/PF positions, I think Boozer will be limited in his minutes this series and would like to play more Mashburn instead in the minutes when Shaq is on the bench.  For those brief stretches, I think I'll be able to get some good offense out of a Peja + Mashburn pairing as the forwards.
2020 CelticsStrong All-2000s Draft -- Utah Jazz
 
Finals Starters:  Jason Kidd - Reggie Miller - PJ Tucker - Al Horford - Shaq
Bench:  Rajon Rondo - Trae Young - Marcus Smart - Jaylen Brown -  Peja Stojakovic - Jamal Mashburn - Carlos Boozer - Tristan Thompson - Mehmet Okur