Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I’m also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

So if Horford plays a significant role in helping the Sixers win the title this year, but then craps out the next 3 is it really a horrible contract?

You have to judge the contract in its entirety, relative to what Horford contributes in aggregate over the 4 years he is being paid by the Sixers.  You seem to want to discount what his contributions are currently and only focus on what he may look like in years 3 or 4.  But that isn't how it works.

Sure, it's possible that Horford's contract could put the team in a bad spot towards the end of it, but it could very easily be worth it if it leads to great success at the beginning of his time there.

But to directly answer the question the thread title is asking, sure it's possible.  I just don't think it's very likely he'll be the worst contract signed this summer.  My guess is his contributions in years 1-2 will more than outweigh the possible negatives in years 3-4.

Also, dismissing the value of keeping Embiid fresh seems a bit misguided.  Embiid is a stud.  But he needs his minutes managed.  Having a guy as good as Horford to seamlessly take his place on the nights he's resting is huge.  I'm guessing it will be worth at least an additional 5 wins this season alone.

They probably got one of those wins last night.  Regular season wins are nice but the playoffs are what matter.  Losing game 7 by 2 points when you're +10 in the 45 minutes play and -12 in the 3 minutes that he doesn't shows how important Horford can be for them.  If Embiid is a little healthier or the Sixers have a decent backup C, the Raptors would not be champs.  Two quotes from an article after games 6 are telling. 


Through six games, the Sixers have outscored the Raptors by 21 points per 100 possessions in Embiid's 192 minutes on the floor and have been outscored by 46 points per 100 possessions in his 96 minutes off the floor.

On defense, he has essentially scared the Raptors from scoring near the basket. With Embiid on the floor in the series, the Raptors have shot 59 percent in the restricted area, where they've taken 23 percent of their shots.

With Embiid off the floor, those numbers rise to 80 percent and 28 percent, respectively.

https://www.nba.com/article/2019/05/10/series-swings-embiid-importance-only-constant

What's it going to be like if Embiid makes it to the playoffs healthy and he has a solid backup in Horford? 

[tazzmaniac]

Actually there was another quote in the article that sums it up. 
It's the playoffs. If I got to play 45 minutes, that's what I got to do. If that's what it takes to win, I got to be there.  JOEL EMBIID

He gave the Sixers the 45 minutes but they really needed that 46th minute. 

[KGs Knee]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I’m also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

So if Horford plays a significant role in helping the Sixers win the title this year, but then craps out the next 3 is it really a horrible contract?

You have to judge the contract in its entirety, relative to what Horford contributes in aggregate over the 4 years he is being paid by the Sixers.  You seem to want to discount what his contributions are currently and only focus on what he may look like in years 3 or 4.  But that isn't how it works.

Sure, it's possible that Horford's contract could put the team in a bad spot towards the end of it, but it could very easily be worth it if it leads to great success at the beginning of his time there.

But to directly answer the question the thread title is asking, sure it's possible.  I just don't think it's very likely he'll be the worst contract signed this summer.  My guess is his contributions in years 1-2 will more than outweigh the possible negatives in years 3-4.

Also, dismissing the value of keeping Embiid fresh seems a bit misguided.  Embiid is a stud.  But he needs his minutes managed.  Having a guy as good as Horford to seamlessly take his place on the nights he's resting is huge.  I'm guessing it will be worth at least an additional 5 wins this season alone.

They probably got one of those wins last night.  Regular season wins are nice but the playoffs are what matter.  Losing game 7 by 2 points when you're +10 in the 45 minutes play and -12 in the 3 minutes that he doesn't shows how important Horford can be for them.  If Embiid is a little healthier or the Sixers have a decent backup C, the Raptors would not be champs.  Two quotes from an article after games 6 are telling. 


Through six games, the Sixers have outscored the Raptors by 21 points per 100 possessions in Embiid's 192 minutes on the floor and have been outscored by 46 points per 100 possessions in his 96 minutes off the floor.

On defense, he has essentially scared the Raptors from scoring near the basket. With Embiid on the floor in the series, the Raptors have shot 59 percent in the restricted area, where they've taken 23 percent of their shots.

With Embiid off the floor, those numbers rise to 80 percent and 28 percent, respectively.

https://www.nba.com/article/2019/05/10/series-swings-embiid-importance-only-constant

What's it going to be like if Embiid makes it to the playoffs healthy and he has a solid backup in Horford? 

I agree the playoffs are what really matters.  And in that regard, having Horford on the court when Embiid isn't is going to be huge for them.

My point was that I think Horford's presence likely will lead to the Sixers winning more regular-season games, thus having a higher seed.  That is important, too. 

[PAOBoston]

Horford will be a god send for that team this year and probably next year. The issue is years 3 & 4 and how Al ages. The 76ers really have a two year window to cash in on this group of guys they have. They are going to have some really bad contracts once Al ages and the awful Harris contract.

[keevsnick]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I’m also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

So if Horford plays a significant role in helping the Sixers win the title this year, but then craps out the next 3 is it really a horrible contract?

You have to judge the contract in its entirety, relative to what Horford contributes in aggregate over the 4 years he is being paid by the Sixers.  You seem to want to discount what his contributions are currently and only focus on what he may look like in years 3 or 4.  But that isn't how it works.

Sure, it's possible that Horford's contract could put the team in a bad spot towards the end of it, but it could very easily be worth it if it leads to great success at the beginning of his time there.

But to directly answer the question the thread title is asking, sure it's possible.  I just don't think it's very likely he'll be the worst contract signed this summer.  My guess is his contributions in years 1-2 will more than outweigh the possible negatives in years 3-4.

Also, dismissing the value of keeping Embiid fresh seems a bit misguided.  Embiid is a stud.  But he needs his minutes managed.  Having a guy as good as Horford to seamlessly take his place on the nights he's resting is huge.  I'm guessing it will be worth at least an additional 5 wins this season alone.

If they win it this year or next and Horford contributes significantly to that than its a good contract. If they don't but Horford declines slowly it could still be a god contract. If they don't and he takes a big step back the next couple of years it could keep them from retooling and be a very bad contract.

Even then the 4th season would only be 14M so it would be very tradeable.

If its completely dead or mostly dead money 14 million likely costs a first round pick to get off from. So its moveable but it does hurt your ability to build a team. Thats the worst case scenario tho.

[jambr380]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I’m also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

Come on man.  You were the one who brought up Horford's first game stats to justify your position.  Even though they weren't out of line (albeit a poor shooting night) with what we got out of him for 3 years and his career as a whole. 

Did the Sixers overpay for Horford? Yes. Was it justified? Yes. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, why would his performance drop off that much next season?  You can't just quote generic stats.  You have to look at the player and you have to look at their situation.  Marc Gasol is 1.5 years older than Horford.  If the Raptors don't trade for him mid-season, they most likely don't get past the Sixers.  Horford's 4th year is only partially guaranteed based on team performance (finals and championships).  The only concern I'd have is being able to re-sign Richardson in 2 years.  That'll set them back quite a bit of tax. 

The question to you is what should the Sixers have done differently?  Given Butler a 5 year Max contract?  That's a much more risky overpay in my mind given Butler's temperament, his likely performance decline with age, his skill set and the position he plays. He's already coasting during the regular season on defense.  Butler certainly played well for them in the playoffs but he didn't address their biggest issue of huge performance drop off when Embiid is off court.  They wouldn't have had the money for a solid backup C and I don't think they would have been able to re-sign Redick so they would have had a whole starting SG too.

Wait, what? Any team would be happier paying Butler the max rather than paying Al (essentially) the max. I understand the Sixers didn't have that option, but if they did, they sure as heck wouldn't have signed Horford. All they really need is a viable big man behind Embiid. They certainly got one in Horford, but that doesn't mean he is going to be worth his contract down the road. If they could have had Butler and say, Enes Kanter (at the MLE), I imagine that would have been the obvious route.

[jambr380]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I’m also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

So if Horford plays a significant role in helping the Sixers win the title this year, but then craps out the next 3 is it really a horrible contract?

You have to judge the contract in its entirety, relative to what Horford contributes in aggregate over the 4 years he is being paid by the Sixers.  You seem to want to discount what his contributions are currently and only focus on what he may look like in years 3 or 4.  But that isn't how it works.

Sure, it's possible that Horford's contract could put the team in a bad spot towards the end of it, but it could very easily be worth it if it leads to great success at the beginning of his time there.

But to directly answer the question the thread title is asking, sure it's possible.  I just don't think it's very likely he'll be the worst contract signed this summer.  My guess is his contributions in years 1-2 will more than outweigh the possible negatives in years 3-4.

Also, dismissing the value of keeping Embiid fresh seems a bit misguided.  Embiid is a stud.  But he needs his minutes managed.  Having a guy as good as Horford to seamlessly take his place on the nights he's resting is huge.  I'm guessing it will be worth at least an additional 5 wins this season alone.

If they win it this year or next and Horford contributes significantly to that than its a good contract. If they don't but Horford declines slowly it could still be a god contract. If they don't and he takes a big step back the next couple of years it could keep them from retooling and be a very bad contract.

Even then the 4th season would only be 14M so it would be very tradeable.

If its completely dead or mostly dead money 14 million likely costs a first round pick to get off from. So its moveable but it does hurt your ability to build a team. Thats the worst case scenario tho.

And if the Sixers even make the Finals just once (not win), then that # is up to $19.5M. That is even worse. Of course if the Sixers win a title and Al is a big part of that, then the Sixers will be happy to pay him the full $26.5M in 2022-23 - even if he needs crutches to get up and down the court.

[NKY fan]

Embiid is 26 I think ... there is non zero probability that he will not maintain his level of play in three years. He’s just too big and has a history of bad conditioning and foot problems..
The sixers time is now and next season. They couldn’t afford to wait to draft more guys and develop them ... well they realized that after the fultz fiasco...
It is worth for them to steal horford from us and clear their path to the finals... Giannis is their main obstacle now

[moiso]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I’m also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

Come on man.  You were the one who brought up Horford's first game stats to justify your position.  Even though they weren't out of line (albeit a poor shooting night) with what we got out of him for 3 years and his career as a whole. 

Did the Sixers overpay for Horford? Yes. Was it justified? Yes. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, why would his performance drop off that much next season?  You can't just quote generic stats.  You have to look at the player and you have to look at their situation.  Marc Gasol is 1.5 years older than Horford.  If the Raptors don't trade for him mid-season, they most likely don't get past the Sixers.  Horford's 4th year is only partially guaranteed based on team performance (finals and championships).  The only concern I'd have is being able to re-sign Richardson in 2 years.  That'll set them back quite a bit of tax. 

The question to you is what should the Sixers have done differently?  Given Butler a 5 year Max contract?  That's a much more risky overpay in my mind given Butler's temperament, his likely performance decline with age, his skill set and the position he plays. He's already coasting during the regular season on defense.  Butler certainly played well for them in the playoffs but he didn't address their biggest issue of huge performance drop off when Embiid is off court.  They wouldn't have had the money for a solid backup C and I don't think they would have been able to re-sign Redick so they would have had a whole starting SG too.

Wait, what? Any team would be happier paying Butler the max rather than paying Al (essentially) the max. I understand the Sixers didn't have that option, but if they did, they sure as heck wouldn't have signed Horford. All they really need is a viable big man behind Embiid. They certainly got one in Horford, but that doesn't mean he is going to be worth his contract down the road. If they could have had Butler and say, Enes Kanter (at the MLE), I imagine that would have been the obvious route.

Every team wouldn’t want Butler period, regardless of salary.  If Horford wanted to play for cheap every single team in the league would be interested.

[SparzWizard]

Won't be the worst contract of the offseason if they win it all at least once

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid is 26 I think ... there is non zero probability that he will not maintain his level of play in three years. He’s just too big and has a history of bad conditioning and foot problems..
The sixers time is now and next season. They couldn’t afford to wait to draft more guys and develop them ... well they realized that after the fultz fiasco...
It is worth for them to steal horford from us and clear their path to the finals... Giannis is their main obstacle now

Embiid is 25.  He turns 26 in March.  He had a broken foot in college which required 2 surgery and 2 missed seasons but, knock on wood, he hasn't had any foot problems since.  He had a torn meniscus.  He had his face broken by Fultz's shoulder.   He's had some knee tendonitis.  But no further foot problems since he had 2nd surgery which was the same surgery that KD previously had.   

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid sits out with a sprained ankle.  Horford steps up with 23 pts, 9 reb and 5 ast.  Sixers gets the win over the Pistons.  Exhibit #1 in why they overpaid to get Horford.  Be competitive when Embiid is off court.

Come on man. I know you know more About basketball than this from our discussions over the year. I also clearly said above, as has everyone else, that the contract is not bad cause of this first year. The problem is next year and even more the year after that. That is why it was questionably a terrible contract. I’m also baffled we have now had two people bump this thread this season. I am not petty enough to bump it next time al has a 5 point game...

Come on man.  You were the one who brought up Horford's first game stats to justify your position.  Even though they weren't out of line (albeit a poor shooting night) with what we got out of him for 3 years and his career as a whole. 

Did the Sixers overpay for Horford? Yes. Was it justified? Yes. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, why would his performance drop off that much next season?  You can't just quote generic stats.  You have to look at the player and you have to look at their situation.  Marc Gasol is 1.5 years older than Horford.  If the Raptors don't trade for him mid-season, they most likely don't get past the Sixers.  Horford's 4th year is only partially guaranteed based on team performance (finals and championships).  The only concern I'd have is being able to re-sign Richardson in 2 years.  That'll set them back quite a bit of tax. 

The question to you is what should the Sixers have done differently?  Given Butler a 5 year Max contract?  That's a much more risky overpay in my mind given Butler's temperament, his likely performance decline with age, his skill set and the position he plays. He's already coasting during the regular season on defense.  Butler certainly played well for them in the playoffs but he didn't address their biggest issue of huge performance drop off when Embiid is off court.  They wouldn't have had the money for a solid backup C and I don't think they would have been able to re-sign Redick so they would have had a whole starting SG too.

Wait, what? Any team would be happier paying Butler the max rather than paying Al (essentially) the max. I understand the Sixers didn't have that option, but if they did, they sure as heck wouldn't have signed Horford. All they really need is a viable big man behind Embiid. They certainly got one in Horford, but that doesn't mean he is going to be worth his contract down the road. If they could have had Butler and say, Enes Kanter (at the MLE), I imagine that would have been the obvious route.

Of course.  That's why Jimmy Butler was in such high demand during free agency where teams were throwing around money.  Except he really wasn't.  Miami wanted him but given their cap space they didn't really have any other choices.  Same goes for Houston.  He was rumored to be the plan B for a few teams but there is not any real evidence for that. 

The Sixers could have offered him the Max but there's no indication that they offered him anything.  I think that was predominantly because he was a bad fit with Simmons but his temperament and the thought of paying Butler nearly 40M in his 34/35 seasons would certainly have been factors.  If they had given Butler the Max, they most likely would have lost Redick and they would have had to use the MLE on a starting SG. 

[celticsclay]

Embiid is 26 I think ... there is non zero probability that he will not maintain his level of play in three years. He’s just too big and has a history of bad conditioning and foot problems..
The sixers time is now and next season. They couldn’t afford to wait to draft more guys and develop them ... well they realized that after the fultz fiasco...
It is worth for them to steal horford from us and clear their path to the finals... Giannis is their main obstacle now

Embiid is 25.  He turns 26 in March.  He had a broken foot in college which required 2 surgery and 2 missed seasons but, knock on wood, he hasn't had any foot problems since.  He had a torn meniscus.  He had his face broken by Fultz's shoulder.   He's had some knee tendonitis.  But no further foot problems since he had 2nd surgery which was the same surgery that KD previously had.

he is injured right now right? Also had a bad back in college
I believe. I’m pulling for the guy but it’s looking like an uphill battle unforthnately

[Moranis]

Another win for the Sixers they don't get without Horford.  Last night is why they brought him in. To carry the interior load when Embiid is out. 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Another win for the Sixers they don't get without Horford.  Last night is why they brought him in. To carry the interior load when Embiid is out.

He was awesome in that game. I really expected him to take another step back this year, but so far he has been better that the past couple of years for the Cs.