In the "Fire Joe!......." topic there has been some panic on how the Celtics operate against top teams, because those are the games that matter looking forward to the playoffs. Especially offensively. So I've looked up the shooting numbers. In ten games it gives the following stats.
TATUM (58/105) 55 2FG% and (26/73) 36 3FG% => 54 EFG% on 17.8 shots for 19.4 PPG
BROWN (48/99) 48 2FG% and (17/55) 31 3FG% => 48 EFG% on 17.1 shots for 16.3 PPG
PORZINGIS (34/56) 61 2FG% and (11/30) 37 3FG% => 59 EFG% on 14.3 shots for 16.8 PPG
WHITE (21/41) 51 2FG% and (27/66) 41 3FG% => 57 EFG% on 11.9 shots for 13.7 PPG
HOLIDAY (24/59) 41 2FG% and (17/54) 31 3FG% => 44 EFG% on 11.3 shots for 9.9 PPG
HORFORD (10/16) 63 2FG% and (18/44) 41 3FG% => 62 EFG% on 6.7 shots for 8.2 PPG
HAUSER (5/7) 71 2FG% and (22/51) 43 3FG% => 66 EFG% on 5.8 shots for 7.6 PPG
PRITCHARD (9/20) 45 2FG% and (13/38) 34 3FG% => 49 EFG% on 5.8 shots for 5.7 PPG
Rest: Kornet (10/14=>71 EFG%), Banton (5/14=>39 EFG%), Brissett (8/13=>73 EFG%), Queta (7/12=>58 EFG%), Stevens (3/10=>30 EFG%), Mykhailiuk (5/9=>72 EFG%), Peterson (1/1=>150 EFG%), Davison (0/1=>0 EFG%)
Two remarks: Porzingis has missed 4 games while the rest of the rotation players missed only 0 or 1 and the numbers for the starters are a little skewed downwards (76=>72 total shots per game) because of that Milwaukee loss, where the starters were benched in the second half.
We observe huge differences in shooting efficiency. Albeit it's a relatively small sample size we can conclude that Holiday and Brown are shooting abysmal. Pritchard had a tough start of the season, but after early November he has been fine (remove the first two games and he's shooting 56 EFG%). Noticable is that Tatum and Porzingis are very good inside.
The bench is almost exclusively shooting threes and they do a good job at it. Hauser and Horford are our most efficient shooters in big games. Perhaps surprising. We can see why Banton and Stevens have fallen out lately, but the deep bench has hardly seen playing time (maybe Mazzula should give Brissett and Kornet more opportunities?).
Looking at the numbers it's clear we should allocate a bit more shots to Porzingis and White and probably use the bench more, but most of all we have to find a way to make Brown and Holiday more effective. I'd start with demanding them to shoot less.
For a quick indication: 1) the team (excluding Jaylen and Jrue) is scoring 1.17 points per shot 2) together Brown and Holiday score 0.92 points per shot 3) that means on the volume they're shooting (~28 SPG) it costs the Celtics 6.9 points per game!!!
The distribution of two field goal attempts and three point attempts is almost fifty-fifty (458-430). That sounds extreme, but with 1.05 points per 2FGA and 1.11 points per 3FGA it's actually perfectly fine. Free throws are not included (too much work), but they can be awarded to fouls on both type of shots.
I didn't know what I'd find, but these numbers (on admittedly a small sample size) strengthen my idea that the Celtics core should be White-Tatum-Porzingis going forward and that our bench is fine. I'm not saying just dump Brown and Holiday, but we might be better off trading them, in particular if financial restrictions become a serious factor.
Topic: Shooting numbers against teams >.65 (MIN, MIL, OKC, PHI, DEN, LAC) (Read 1230 times)