Tobias Harris started following Marcus Smart on Twitter, C's players follow him

[tarheelsxxiii]

Doesn't change my opinion on thinking we should just sign him, but a quick look at his PER is sobering:

99. Tobias
76. Sully

I do like PER, guess usage rate and position can skew numbers though. Regarding RPM, which I also like, it doesn't take into account how good/crappy a player's team is - could over- or under-inflate the stat. So yeah, stats good and appreciate your HW, definitely not all-encompassing, though.

[BDeCosta26]

I'd love Tobias in Green.

He and KLove would make a GREAT Forward combo.

Let's hope he's not following a guy who's about to be traded, LOL. SO MANY trade rumors/speculations - out there right now.

One thread (David Aldridge speculating), is that Marcus - Noel swap would fill a need for BOS and PHI. So with that being said, I hope Tobias isn't following Marcus to Philadelphia

Why would the sixers trade a big with  embid in limbo. Makes zero sense. They could have drafted Russell instead of trading for Smart. I don't see it. Would I make that trade, yes I would!

Because the three bigs they have don't fit together at all, and they're all pretty highly rated prospects who will command legit playing time when they're all good to go. In today's NBA, someone in your front-court needs to be able to space the floor, at the VERY least be a knock-down mid range shooter like KG was. None of Philly's guys have that. Playing any combination of those 3 at the same time would be a spacing nightmare.

They're gonna have to trade one of those guys soon, and I think that rumored deal with us has merit because Hinkie knows as well as anyone he's gonna have to trade one of em. Noel is the one to put out there because he has more value to us than he does to them.

[walker834]

Belichick "stats are for losers". lol.  Sry couldn't resist.   

The issue with stats in general is players improve/regress etc..  Harris is very young.  If stats were all that mattered some of the best players ever would never have been drafted.

Harris is also playi ng on a completely different team.  Can't forget that.  KG was an amazing player for us. He hasn't been since he left.

[Evantime34]

It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

There is no reason to attack stats in general.

That being said here are my issues with the stats he mentioned
1. Those stats do not account for quality of coach, or if the scheme, his teammates are a good fit.

2. Harris is great at knocking down 3's off the catch, creating offense in the pick and roll as well as driving close outs and posting up smaller 3's (due to his strength). The problem is Orlando seriously lacked shooting and thus floor spacing. This made scoring in the pick and roll and driving close outs much more difficult and posting up significantly more difficult. As one of the only good 3 point shooters on his team he was a lot less likely to find clean looks.

3. The fact that he is 22 can't simply be brushed off because he has had similar production over the first few years of his career. If a 22 year old coming out of college had similar production by advanced metrics over his last few years of college, you wouldn't assume he isn't going to get better in the NBA.

4. Usually when players increase their attempts, their efficiency goes down that is not the case with Harris. This year his effective field goal percentage and 3 point percentage increased despite taking a career high in 3's. His overall numbers didn't improve by much due to the cluster (expletive) of spacing that the magic had this year. Harris had many less opportunities inside yet he increased his percentages, think about what he will do when he takes his current 3 point shooting to a team that spaces the court well.

5. Those stats (for the most part) take into account opponents and some of them even take into account teammates but they do not take into account the style, spacing and coaching of a team, which is why Harris is greatly undervalued by those stats.

[Jonny CC]

 I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played. 
 BUt by your stats he's a wing scorer and solid rebounder.  Who out there is available at 15 mil that can give us that now?

Max deal guys....Draymond, Leonard, 
Others...Crowder, Millsap, Pierce,

??

[crimson_stallion]

But by your stats he's a wing scorer and solid rebounder.  Who out there is available at 15 mil that can give us that now?

Jae Crowder (14 Points Per 36, 6.9 Rebounds per 36)
Paul Pierce (16.3 Points Per 36, 5.5 Rebounds per 36)
Michael Beazley (15.1 Points Per 36, 6.3 Rebounds per 36)
Joe Johnson (14.9 Points Per 36, 5 Rebounds per 36)
Jonas Jerebko (14.1 Points Per 36, 9.6 Rebounds per 36)
Evan Turner (12.4 Points per 36, 6.6 Rebounds Per 36)
Jimmy Butler (18.6 Points Per 36, 5.4 Rebounds Per 36)
Dwyane Wade (22 Points Per 36, 5.2 Rebounds Per 36)
Khris Middleton (16 Points Per 36, 5.3 Rebounds Per 36)
Danny Green (14.7 Points Per 36, 5.3 Rebounds Per 36)
Rodney Stuckey (17.2 Points Per 36, 4.8 rebounds Per 36)
Josh Smith (16.9 Points Per 36, 8.4 Rebounds Per 36)
Paul Millsap (18.3 Points Per 36, 8.6 Rebounds Per 36)

I could probably find more if I start going through more stretch fours (e.g. Millsap) but that will do for now.

I think every guy on that list is either (a) significantly better than Harris or (b) would cost us significantly less than Harris...and I don't think many people on that list would have a worse 'Real Plus Minus' than Harris, since his is well...pretty bad. 

But I can look it up for you and confirm for each if you like. 

Also don't use three point shooting as a criteria to further narrow down that list since (as per my previous post) Harris has not even been nearly consistent enough over the course of his career to make anything close to a compelling argument for his ability as a shooter.

[walker834]

I hope we get harris the more i think about it.  I'm falling off the love bandwagon somewhat.  I want the celtics to  build with Marcus and do it in an intelligent fashion and harris would fit the bill.

[Jonny CC]

 I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played. 
 BUt by your stats he's a wing scorer and solid rebounder.  Who out there is available at 15 mil that can give us that now?

Max deal guys....Draymond, Leonard, 
Others...Crowder, Millsap, Pierce,

??

I think Harris would be a good addition for the C's and he would fill a need but I am concerned about the amount of money it would take to get him. 

[wayupnorth]

You might find it interesting to read Stephen Shea's take:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

Also, regardless of the fact that he's "already played 4 seasons in the NBA", he's only 22.   I think it would be a difficult assertion to support that he isn't likely to continue to improve his game over the next 5-10 years.   Most NBA players don't reach peak athleticism until their late 20s and most continue to improve skills well into their  30s.

I've seen the said article, and it's not reliable by any means.  There are two major flaws with the logic in that piece:

1 - Cherry picking of stats
It uses a unique set of statistical categories which are cherry-picked to try to push the writer's obvious opinion that Harris is a very special player. 

This is VERY easy to do for just about any player in the league.

For example, how many players in the NBA this season averaged at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 49% from the field?  Only three - Anthony Davis, Greg Monroe and Pau Gasol.   

So this must make Monroe an incredible player - a generational talent.  I mean, pout of 475 active NBA players there are only two other guys who can do what Monroe does, and that's despite a far reduced offensive role (he's the only guy of the three who averaged < 14 FGA to reach those 15 PPG)

Of course we all know that's not true. 

I could really easily do the same with Nerlens Noel since he's the only player in the NBA ranking top 10 in both steals and blocks, so BAM - instantly superstar in the making right there.  He must be really special because that only took TWO statistical categories.

Monroe is a very nice player, but he's not at that special a level just yet.  Likewise Noel has some great talent, but is a completely one dimensional player.  The above just goes to show how you can make almost ANY decent player in the NBA look really unique/special by carefully cherry picking a few select stats.

I'm sure you get my point!

2- Completley ignored player history
The entire argument of this article is based on Harris' ability to rebound and shoot threes at a very good rate. 

It completely ignores the fact that over his four NBA seasons, Harris has only shot above 32% from three once - which happens to be this season that just ended.

* In 2011-12 he shot 26.1%
* In 2012-13 he shot 31.5%
* In 2013-14 he shot 25.4%
* In 2014-15 he shot 36.4%

How on earth can you POSSIBLY argue that a guy who shot 36.4% (which is a good, but hardly elite number) in one season out of four is any form of conclusive evidence that this guy is legitimately a high quality NBA shooter?

Harris has a career three point percentage of 32.1%, so if you go off their careers so far then Avery Bradley (36%), Marcus Smart (33.5%) and Kelly Olynyk (34.9%) are all significantly better three point shooters.

Oh but "he's only 22 years old" they say. But "look how he's improved this year!" they say. 

Well Every Bradley shot 31.7% from three when he was 22 years old in 2012-13 and then went on to shoot 39.5% from three as a 23 year old in 2013-14.  He showed a massive improvement as a shooter in 2013-14 as a 23 year old going in to a contract year - sound familiar?

Again, a nicely written article that does a good job of pushing the writers theories, but sadly it has all of about zero substance to it.

All those Boston fans who love to say Bradley has no upside last year and didn't deserve his $8M or so contract (because he's already been in the NBA 4 seasons and hasn't shown any improvement) have absolutely rational reason to think any different about Harris.  He has had a very similar career progression to Bradley up to his fourth season.

 

You don't have a clue

You know what, I am seriously in awe at the power of your argument.  So much so that I will concede defeat and openly admit that you are right - I am convinced. 

Actually I just had a bit of a think about it and despite your highly compelling argument, I think I'm still a little skeptical.  For now i'll just stick to the conclusion that the FACTS project.

Been wanting Harris since last year.  Any c's fan that doesn't  has no clue about the team needs.

Why? 

Please do tell me what Harris offers that this team desperately need.

Three point shooting at the wing position? I agree, we do need that. 

Believe me though, there are a LOT of guys out there who are much more proven as three point shooters than Harris..as he hasn't really proven that much over the one single statistical single season of his life in which he actually shot a percentage that even remotely above mediocre.

Defense?  Nope, he's one of the bottom 10% of so among all Small Forwards.

Outright scoring?  Nope, he scored at a similar rate to Bradley and Jeff Green, and they haven't gotten us that far.

Ok he's a solid rebounder at the SF spot, but are you really going to use THAT as justification for throwing this guy a $13M - $15M contract???

Did you really just say that Smart at 33.5% is a "significantly" better 3pt. shooter than Harris at 32.1%?

That is what they call a credibility killer.

[walker834]

 I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played. 
 BUt by your stats he's a wing scorer and solid rebounder.  Who out there is available at 15 mil that can give us that now?

Max deal guys....Draymond, Leonard, 
Others...Crowder, Millsap, Pierce,

??

I think Harris would be a good addition for the C's and he would fill a need but I am concerned about the amount of money it would take to get him.

That's true.  I'd like to sign and trade Wallace for him if at all possible so we can add a guy like Monroe if we go this route.

The celtics are almost in a position where they have to spend this money though.

[cltc5]

But by your stats he's a wing scorer and solid rebounder.  Who out there is available at 15 mil that can give us that now?

Jae Crowder (14 Points Per 36, 6.9 Rebounds per 36)
Paul Pierce (16.3 Points Per 36, 5.5 Rebounds per 36)
Michael Beazley (15.1 Points Per 36, 6.3 Rebounds per 36)
Joe Johnson (14.9 Points Per 36, 5 Rebounds per 36)
Jonas Jerebko (14.1 Points Per 36, 9.6 Rebounds per 36)
Evan Turner (12.4 Points per 36, 6.6 Rebounds Per 36)
Jimmy Butler (18.6 Points Per 36, 5.4 Rebounds Per 36)
Dwyane Wade (22 Points Per 36, 5.2 Rebounds Per 36)
Khris Middleton (16 Points Per 36, 5.3 Rebounds Per 36)
Danny Green (14.7 Points Per 36, 5.3 Rebounds Per 36)
Rodney Stuckey (17.2 Points Per 36, 4.8 rebounds Per 36)
Josh Smith (16.9 Points Per 36, 8.4 Rebounds Per 36)
Paul Millsap (18.3 Points Per 36, 8.6 Rebounds Per 36)

I could probably find more if I start going through more stretch fours (e.g. Millsap) but that will do for now.

I think every guy on that list is either (a) significantly better than Harris or (b) would cost us significantly less than Harris...and I don't think many people on that list would have a worse 'Real Plus Minus' than Harris, since his is well...pretty bad. 

But I can look it up for you and confirm for each if you like. 

Also don't use three point shooting as a criteria to further narrow down that list since (as per my previous post) Harris has not even been nearly consistent enough over the course of his career to make anything close to a compelling argument for his ability as a shooter.

I'm talkin guys that would realistically sign here and hold there value for a few years.  Come on man, we're talking real options here, that we CAN get.  Middleton and crowder maybe on that list

[cltc5]

It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

There is no reason to attack stats in general.

That being said here are my issues with the stats he mentioned
1. Those stats do not account for quality of coach, or if the scheme, his teammates are a good fit.

2. Harris is great at knocking down 3's off the catch, creating offense in the pick and roll as well as driving close outs and posting up smaller 3's (due to his strength). The problem is Orlando seriously lacked shooting and thus floor spacing. This made scoring in the pick and roll and driving close outs much more difficult and posting up significantly more difficult. As one of the only good 3 point shooters on his team he was a lot less likely to find clean looks.

3. The fact that he is 22 can't simply be brushed off because he has had similar production over the first few years of his career. If a 22 year old coming out of college had similar production by advanced metrics over his last few years of college, you wouldn't assume he isn't going to get better in the NBA.

4. Usually when players increase their attempts, their efficiency goes down that is not the case with Harris. This year his effective field goal percentage and 3 point percentage increased despite taking a career high in 3's. His overall numbers didn't improve by much due to the cluster (expletive) of spacing that the magic had this year. Harris had many less opportunities inside yet he increased his percentages, think about what he will do when he takes his current 3 point shooting to a team that spaces the court well.

5. Those stats (for the most part) take into account opponents and some of them even take into account teammates but they do not take into account the style, spacing and coaching of a team, which is why Harris is greatly undervalued by those stats.

You probably said it better than me.  Agreed stats shouldn't be dismissed neither should they be the deciding factor.

[tarheelsxxiii]

@crimson, what about PER comparisons? IDK his usage rate, but could be informative given that Crowder's MPG were much lower (20 regular season, 25 playoffs) than Harris' (right about 36, I think). Could def skew per 36 ratings.

[walker834]

We need to get this guy.  We can analyze it to death but there are very few small forwards in the nba with his ability that actually may be available.   Otherwise we are looking at drafting someone with the nets pick..

WE have cap space.  It's either this or wait and draft someone when those picks can be used in other ways.

[LooseCannon]

If reports are being leaked that the Magic don't plan on matching the max or anything close it, that could be an attempt to get other teams to sign Harris to an offer sheet that is less than the max so that Orlando pays less when they match.