Tobias Harris started following Marcus Smart on Twitter, C's players follow him

[Ilikesports17]

It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

The only guys on that list on non-playoff teams are Cousins, Gay, and Farried.  The vast majority play on solid playoff teams.  And Sacramento won 4 more games than Orlando and Denver won 5 more!!

Sorry, maybe this list will help:

Demarcus Cousins - Sacramento (+6.12 RPM)
Carmelo Anthony - NY Knicks  (+4.81 ORPM, -2.09 DRPM, +2.72 RPM)
Ricky Rubio - Minnesota (+0.38 ORPM, +2.33 DRPM, +2.71 RPM)
Elfrid Payton - Orlando (+1.22 ORPM, +0.87 DRPM, +2.09 RPM)
Greg Monroe - Detroit (+0.37 ORPM, +2.29 DRPM, +2.66 RPM)
Robert Covington - Philadelphia (+2.07 ORPM, +0.03 DRPM, +2.10 RPM)
Darren Collison - Sacramento  (+1.52 ORPM, +0.26 DRPM, +1.78 RPM)
Kentavious Caldwell Pope - Detroit (+1.66 ORPM, -0.37 DRPM, +0.29 RPM)
Brandon Jennings - Detroit (+2.64 ORPM, -1.41 DRPM, +1.23 RPM)
Theddaus Young - Minnesota/Brooklyn (+0.05 ORPM, +1.15 DRPM, +1.20 RPM)
Kevin Garnett - Minnesota/Brooklyn (-1.42 ORPM, +2.13 DRPM, +0.89 RPM)
Ben McLemore - Sacramento (+0.20 ORPM, +0.71 DRPM, +0.91 RPM)
Joel Anthony - Detroit (-1.82 ORPM, +2.68 DRPM, +0.86 RPM)
Andre Drummond - Detroit (-0.08 ORPM, +0.82 DRPM, +0.74 RPM)
Ronnie Price - LA Lakers (+0.17 ORPM, +0.40 DRPM, +0.57 RPM)
Nikola Pekovic - Minnesota (-0.43 ORPM, +1.00 DRPM, +0.57 RPM)
Rudy Gay - Sacramento (+2.86 ORPM, -2.46 DRPM, +0.40 RPM)
Nerlens Noel - Philadelphia (-4.85 ORPM, +3.36 DRPM, -1.49 DRPM)

Remember that this is 'Real Plus Minus' - it's not a measure of whether the team is winning or losing while the player is on the court.  It's a measure of measure of how much the lead changes while the player is on the court.   

Lets say Player-X is on the bench and the team is losing, with their opposing team increasing their lead by 4 points every 3 minutes of game time. 

Now lets say Player-X steps on to the court for an 8 minute stretch, and over that stretch the team is still getting outscored by their opponent but this time at a rate of 2 points for every 3 minutes of game time.

Player-X will have a Positive Real-Plus Minus in this scenario, because even though his team is still getting blown out...the rate at which they are getting blown out has reduced...and hence Player-X is having a positive net impact on his team while he is on the court.

This is why (for the most part) the overall greatness / crapiness of the team doesn't really have a huge effect on a player's RPM stats, because these measure how that player impacts the game individually.

The only potential issue with RPM is for guys who play less minutes (like end of bench guys who play 6 minutes per game) because those guys might only get subbed on to the court in garbage time when the team is already either up huge or down huge, and probably gets subbed in along with 4 or 5 other end of bench guys.  Hence every time this player gets on the court it's with 4 other crap players, and would likely have a really bad RPM that isn't necessarily reflective of his individual play and/or contribution.

However when you have guys like Harris who play major minutes (his 36 MPG means he's on the court 75% of the time) then you can rest assured that he plays with a huge assortment of different lineups (and with a large assortment of other players), so this gives you a very large and realistic sample size that should give you a very strong indication of how he individually impacted the team.

Plus teams like this usually have a lot of crappy players, so if one crappy player steps off the court, and another crappy player steps on the court in his place, it doesn't really impact the RPM much because the team is getting beat just as badly regardless of which of those guys plays.  So when you have a team as bad as Orlando, that ALWAYS has crappy players on the court...and that team gets EVEN WORSE when Harris steps on...then that's really not a good sign.

Look the RPM stat is a good one but every stat has flaws. Especially a stat which says that Zaza Pachulia is better than Blake Griffin.

Look at the Win Shares stat and it suggests Harris is a very good player.

His empirical stats also suggest hes a very good player and probably most importantly he is 22 years old and has the physical profile of an elite small forward.

Give him so real coaching and some time to mature into his mid twenties.

[Tr1boy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUlSNqQQTck

poor defense on Lebron. Crowder played better D on Lebron

I wouldn't say poor defense. He stayed infront of him on the most part and made him take off balanced shots, even got a block. But Harris p---ed Lebron off and Lebron went ot hitting those fades and off balanced shots. Not many defenders can stop that.

He did get burned a couple times, but one of them he showed him left and know one stepted up to help. Plus it's Lebron, he's going to burn everyone in the league. Heck he scored 45 on Pierce, was that poor D or just good O.

I'm not saying Harris is a lock down defender, he needs some work, and needs to fight more threw screens. But I LOVE him called Lebron out. Shows the kid has grit and doesn't bow down the the Queen like half the NBA.

Yes Lebron is Lebron but Harris only did a mediocre job.  Some plays he did well some plays he was out for lunch (like not fighting through screens harder).  Lebron blew by him on several occasions bc Harris did not move his feet early enough.

Harris has the tools to be a great defender. Potentially Kawhi Leonard good. But he does not go all the way. Maybe a taste of the playoffs can change things. Maybe under a different coach.  It's risky and it might never happen.

I rather pay less and go for Middleton. Or pay just as high and try to get Butler.  I would overpay for Leonard but no matter what the price is, i'm sure the Spurs will match.

[Forza Juventus]

Harris is a restricted free agent. He can't be signed and traded.

We an only sign him to an offer sheet and then wait to see if Orlando matches

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11204750/isaiah-thomas-sacramento-kings-dealt-phoenix-suns

"The Sacramento Kings sent restricted free agent Isaiah Thomas to the Phoenix Suns in a sign-and-trade deal, the teams announced Saturday."

[Tr1boy]

I wish there was some way we could get Leonard. It would be a treat to see Lebron's reaction when Leonard comes off the bench lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtlMEC_HAzU

[Sketch5]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUlSNqQQTck

poor defense on Lebron. Crowder played better D on Lebron

I wouldn't say poor defense. He stayed infront of him on the most part and made him take off balanced shots, even got a block. But Harris p---ed Lebron off and Lebron went ot hitting those fades and off balanced shots. Not many defenders can stop that.

He did get burned a couple times, but one of them he showed him left and know one stepted up to help. Plus it's Lebron, he's going to burn everyone in the league. Heck he scored 45 on Pierce, was that poor D or just good O.

I'm not saying Harris is a lock down defender, he needs some work, and needs to fight more threw screens. But I LOVE him called Lebron out. Shows the kid has grit and doesn't bow down the the Queen like half the NBA.

Yes Lebron is Lebron but Harris only did a mediocre job.  Some plays he did well some plays he was out for lunch (like not fighting through screens harder).  Lebron blew by him on several occasions bc Harris did not move his feet early enough.

Harris has the tools to be a great defender. Potentially Kawhi Leonard good. But he does not go all the way. Maybe a taste of the playoffs can change things. Maybe under a different coach.  It's risky and it might never happen.

I rather pay less and go for Middleton. Or pay just as high and try to get Butler.  I would overpay for Leonard but no matter what the price is, i'm sure the Spurs will match.

I agree I'd rather have Butler or Leonard. Middleton and Harris are close, Middleton would be cheaper, but unless we move a guard, not sure if he would be a good three, were Harris could play some four.

Harris hasn't been in a good system yet, he's been on bad teams no focus. He has the tools like you said, I'd be willing to role with him. Put him in a good system that built on D, see how he does.

Plus I'm hoping for a AB for Middleton trade. Get him and then sign Harris, it's a win, win.

[Sketch5]

I wish there was some way we could get Leonard. It would be a treat to see Lebron's reaction when Leonard comes off the bench lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtlMEC_HAzU

I don't think you ever saw Jordan or Bird get scared of some one checking in like that.

What a Pansie. Shows he doesn't really want to "earn" what he gets.

[Cman]

I'm a fan of Harris.
But, just want to point out that he also follows Damian Lillard, and perhaps other basketball players as well. After the whole "Sully to Orlando" twitter fiasco, i can't and won't read much into who follows who on twitter...

[cltc5]

It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

[cltc5]

It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played.

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

[crimson_stallion]

You might find it interesting to read Stephen Shea's take:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

Also, regardless of the fact that he's "already played 4 seasons in the NBA", he's only 22.   I think it would be a difficult assertion to support that he isn't likely to continue to improve his game over the next 5-10 years.   Most NBA players don't reach peak athleticism until their late 20s and most continue to improve skills well into their  30s.

I've seen the said article, and it's not reliable by any means.  There are two major flaws with the logic in that piece:

1 - Cherry picking of stats
It uses a unique set of statistical categories which are cherry-picked to try to push the writer's obvious opinion that Harris is a very special player. 

This is VERY easy to do for just about any player in the league.

For example, how many players in the NBA this season averaged at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 49% from the field?  Only three - Anthony Davis, Greg Monroe and Pau Gasol.   

So this must make Monroe an incredible player - a generational talent.  I mean, pout of 475 active NBA players there are only two other guys who can do what Monroe does, and that's despite a far reduced offensive role (he's the only guy of the three who averaged < 14 FGA to reach those 15 PPG)

Of course we all know that's not true. 

I could really easily do the same with Nerlens Noel since he's the only player in the NBA ranking top 10 in both steals and blocks, so BAM - instantly superstar in the making right there.  He must be really special because that only took TWO statistical categories.

Monroe is a very nice player, but he's not at that special a level just yet.  Likewise Noel has some great talent, but is a completely one dimensional player.  The above just goes to show how you can make almost ANY decent player in the NBA look really unique/special by carefully cherry picking a few select stats.

I'm sure you get my point!

2- Completley ignored player history
The entire argument of this article is based on Harris' ability to rebound and shoot threes at a very good rate. 

It completely ignores the fact that over his four NBA seasons, Harris has only shot above 32% from three once - which happens to be this season that just ended.

* In 2011-12 he shot 26.1%
* In 2012-13 he shot 31.5%
* In 2013-14 he shot 25.4%
* In 2014-15 he shot 36.4%

How on earth can you POSSIBLY argue that a guy who shot 36.4% (which is a good, but hardly elite number) in one season out of four is any form of conclusive evidence that this guy is legitimately a high quality NBA shooter?

Harris has a career three point percentage of 32.1%, so if you go off their careers so far then Avery Bradley (36%), Marcus Smart (33.5%) and Kelly Olynyk (34.9%) are all significantly better three point shooters.

Oh but "he's only 22 years old" they say. But "look how he's improved this year!" they say. 

Well Every Bradley shot 31.7% from three when he was 22 years old in 2012-13 and then went on to shoot 39.5% from three as a 23 year old in 2013-14.  He showed a massive improvement as a shooter in 2013-14 as a 23 year old going in to a contract year - sound familiar?

Again, a nicely written article that does a good job of pushing the writers theories, but sadly it has all of about zero substance to it.

All those Boston fans who love to say Bradley has no upside last year and didn't deserve his $8M or so contract (because he's already been in the NBA 4 seasons and hasn't shown any improvement) have absolutely rational reason to think any different about Harris.  He has had a very similar career progression to Bradley up to his fourth season.

 

You don't have a clue

You know what, I am seriously in awe at the power of your argument.  So much so that I will concede defeat and openly admit that you are right - I am convinced. 

Actually I just had a bit of a think about it and despite your highly compelling argument, I think I'm still a little skeptical.  For now i'll just stick to the conclusion that the FACTS project.

Been wanting Harris since last year.  Any c's fan that doesn't  has no clue about the team needs.

Why? 

Please do tell me what Harris offers that this team desperately need.

Three point shooting at the wing position? I agree, we do need that. 

Believe me though, there are a LOT of guys out there who are much more proven as three point shooters than Harris..as he hasn't really proven that much over the one single statistical single season of his life in which he actually shot a percentage that even remotely above mediocre.

Defense?  Nope, he's one of the bottom 10% of so among all Small Forwards.

Outright scoring?  Nope, he scored at a similar rate to Bradley and Jeff Green, and they haven't gotten us that far.

Ok he's a solid rebounder at the SF spot, but are you really going to use THAT as justification for throwing this guy a $13M - $15M contract???

[Jonny CC]

It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:

Because they aren't clinically insane.

I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.

He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.

Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year.  He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average'  one, and according to stats even that's debatable. 

He doesn't have much in the way of upside either.  He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average).  His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.

Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).

There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.   

It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:

Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)

I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.

If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:

Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))

You don't have a clue

Can't handle a different opinion that's backed up by a bunch of stats??

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

For the record, I never said that I agreed with it.  I was just pointing out that your reaction to a different opinion was a bit childish.

[crimson_stallion]

I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played.

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

Oh, so you are one of those people who believes statistics are useless and all that matters is eye test.  I see.

You're like those audio guys who try to tell the world that records (with their crackle and pop) have better sound quality than CD's, that believes the best speakers are ones that sound 'warm', and that a TV screen with vivid popping colors is better than a screens that is 97% accurate according to sRGB.

You're one of those subjective guys who takes on the approach of "X is better than Y because I've seen both and to me X looks better, so that makes it true".

It doesn't matter if there is measurable objective evidence that a player makes his team dramatically worse every single time he steps on the court - the only thing that determines a player's value is how he looks when he plays. 

Ok, I'm sold.

[cltc5]

You might find it interesting to read Stephen Shea's take:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

Also, regardless of the fact that he's "already played 4 seasons in the NBA", he's only 22.   I think it would be a difficult assertion to support that he isn't likely to continue to improve his game over the next 5-10 years.   Most NBA players don't reach peak athleticism until their late 20s and most continue to improve skills well into their  30s.

I've seen the said article, and it's not reliable by any means.  There are two major flaws with the logic in that piece:

1 - Cherry picking of stats
It uses a unique set of statistical categories which are cherry-picked to try to push the writer's obvious opinion that Harris is a very special player. 

This is VERY easy to do for just about any player in the league.

For example, how many players in the NBA this season averaged at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 49% from the field?  Only three - Anthony Davis, Greg Monroe and Pau Gasol.   

So this must make Monroe an incredible player - a generational talent.  I mean, pout of 475 active NBA players there are only two other guys who can do what Monroe does, and that's despite a far reduced offensive role (he's the only guy of the three who averaged < 14 FGA to reach those 15 PPG)

Of course we all know that's not true. 

I could really easily do the same with Nerlens Noel since he's the only player in the NBA ranking top 10 in both steals and blocks, so BAM - instantly superstar in the making right there.  He must be really special because that only took TWO statistical categories.

Monroe is a very nice player, but he's not at that special a level just yet.  Likewise Noel has some great talent, but is a completely one dimensional player.  The above just goes to show how you can make almost ANY decent player in the NBA look really unique/special by carefully cherry picking a few select stats.

I'm sure you get my point!

2- Completley ignored player history
The entire argument of this article is based on Harris' ability to rebound and shoot threes at a very good rate. 

It completely ignores the fact that over his four NBA seasons, Harris has only shot above 32% from three once - which happens to be this season that just ended.

* In 2011-12 he shot 26.1%
* In 2012-13 he shot 31.5%
* In 2013-14 he shot 25.4%
* In 2014-15 he shot 36.4%

How on earth can you POSSIBLY argue that a guy who shot 36.4% (which is a good, but hardly elite number) in one season out of four is any form of conclusive evidence that this guy is legitimately a high quality NBA shooter?

Harris has a career three point percentage of 32.1%, so if you go off their careers so far then Avery Bradley (36%), Marcus Smart (33.5%) and Kelly Olynyk (34.9%) are all significantly better three point shooters.

Oh but "he's only 22 years old" they say. But "look how he's improved this year!" they say. 

Well Every Bradley shot 31.7% from three when he was 22 years old in 2012-13 and then went on to shoot 39.5% from three as a 23 year old in 2013-14.  He showed a massive improvement as a shooter in 2013-14 as a 23 year old going in to a contract year - sound familiar?

Again, a nicely written article that does a good job of pushing the writers theories, but sadly it has all of about zero substance to it.

All those Boston fans who love to say Bradley has no upside last year and didn't deserve his $8M or so contract (because he's already been in the NBA 4 seasons and hasn't shown any improvement) have absolutely rational reason to think any different about Harris.  He has had a very similar career progression to Bradley up to his fourth season.

 

You don't have a clue

You know what, I am seriously in awe at the power of your argument.  So much so that I will concede defeat and openly admit that you are right - I am convinced. 

Actually I just had a bit of a think about it and despite your highly compelling argument, I think I'm still a little skeptical.  For now i'll just stick to the conclusion that the FACTS project.

Been wanting Harris since last year.  Any c's fan that doesn't  has no clue about the team needs.

Why? 

Please do tell me what Harris offers that this team desperately need.

Three point shooting at the wing position? I agree, we do need that. 

Believe me though, there are a LOT of guys out there who are much more proven as three point shooters than Harris..as he hasn't really proven that much over the one single statistical single season of his life in which he actually shot a percentage that even remotely above mediocre.

Defense?  Nope, he's one of the bottom 10% of so among all Small Forwards.

Outright scoring?  Nope, he scored at a similar rate to Bradley and Jeff Green, and they haven't gotten us that far.

Ok he's a solid rebounder at the SF spot, but are you really going to use THAT as justification for throwing this guy a $13M - $15M contract???

 I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played. 
 BUt by your stats he's a wing scorer and solid rebounder.  Who out there is available at 15 mil that can give us that now?

[Sketch5]

I'm a fan of Harris.
But, just want to point out that he also follows Damian Lillard, and perhaps other basketball players as well. After the whole "Sully to Orlando" twitter fiasco, i can't and won't read much into who follows who on twitter...

Yeah but thats Lillard. We are talking about Smart a soon to be second year player. And then Crowder and Smart started to fallow him and now it's rumored that C's are one of the top two teams to grab him.

Blakley I get, he's trying to stay on top of the story.

I mean yeah we shouldn't always read too much into things, but this is a good read.

Plus it was Sully to Charlotte.

[cltc5]

I find most people hide behind stats as a way to hide their deficiency in actual knowledge or experience in how the sport is played.

Get your nose out of a spreadsheet for 5 minutes and watch the sport. Basketball ability and talent is much more than an accumulation of statistical data.  Youre missing out on a mighty big world if you only see things as black or white.

Oh, so you are one of those people who believes statistics are useless and all that matters is eye test.  I see.

You're like those audio guys who try to tell the world that records (with their crackle and pop) have better sound quality than CD's, that believes the best speakers are ones that sound 'warm', and that a TV screen with vivid popping colors is better than a screens that is 97% accurate according to sRGB.

You're one of those subjective guys who takes on the approach of "X is better than Y because I've seen both and to me X looks better, so that makes it true".

It doesn't matter if there is measurable objective evidence that a player makes his team dramatically worse every single time he steps on the court - the only thing that determines a player's value is how he looks when he plays. 

Ok, I'm sold.

No I'm one of those guys that likes to see what a guy does on the court and judge how he fits into our teams needs not whether or not he statitisticslly measure up.  Maybe you didn't see the nba finals because you were crunching numbers but Andre IGuidala had the worse statistics of any nba mvp and was worse than curry and lebron.  But if iggy isn't  on the floor, isn't playing his role for his team,  the Warriors may not win.  Harris give this team, by your own admission, something it needs, rebounding and wing scoring.  So if your searching your stats for someone that has all the numbers all in the percentages hat would qualify them as suitable for you standards, then please continue to search and let us know when you find one that will fit our system, our needs, and that you can get for around 15 mil a year.