Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them. You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.
They are?
Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is). They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler). They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.
I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season. It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance. Now Butler is gone.
The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year. I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better. I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.
Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog. His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court). In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.
The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.
Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid vs.
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez
I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.
You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks
Betting odds are betting odds. Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality). The East is significantly weaker. Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse. No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks.
There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics. I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers. Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler. Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense. Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them. The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty.
Min OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on) 2154 112.5 104.9 7.6
Regular (Embiid off) 1807 107.0 110.5 -3.5
Playoff (Embiid on) 334 113.8 93.0 20.8
Playoff (Embiid off) 242 98.5 120.1 -21.6
Betting odds are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include
Typical. Can't make a cogent argument so get petty. Betting odds aren't objective. They're geared to get people to bet like the gambling houses want them too taking into account people's prejudices and tendencies.
Updated odds to win 2019-20 NBA title @CaesarsPalace books:
Lakers +350
Clippers +400
Bucks +450
Rockets +700
76ers +800
Warriors +1300
Jazz +1400
Celtics +2000
Nets +2000
Nuggets +2000
I don't think an objective assessment would have Lakers with the best championships odds and I certainly don't think the Rockets should be 4th best odds. Harden/Westbrook looks like a terrible fit.
What did I say that was petty. You have called yourself a huge
Embiid fan going back to college? Have you not said this a bunch of times? It’s pretty common knowledge that people are not as objective about the things they are super big fans of. You yourself have called a bunch of people on here Homer’s or drinking the koolaid or whatever. I am a bit surprised that the clippers are not bigger favorites but that list generally makes sense. The lakers have what many people consider to be two top 5 players in the nba.
Also not sure how rockets could be much lower they upgraded in nostnpost people’s eyes from Paul to Westbrook and were considered the second or third best team through almost all of the entire last season.
Finally 76ers with popular star players like Simmons and embiid are actually a big public play so I think you inadvertently made an argument on why they should probably be even longer shots to win the chip.
I'm not making fan boy arguments. If you don't think my reasoning is sound refute it. If you don't think the stats I mention present an accurate picture refute them.
I thought the Celtics and Raptors were much tougher matchups for the Sixers than the Bucks. They had players to defend Embiid and they could exploit Redick's defensive deficiencies better than the Bucks. Now with the Celtics and Raptors taking big steps back and the Bucks taking a small step back I think the Sixers are in much better position even though they've had a significant personnel turnover.
As an aside has anyone had a more challenging job than Coach Brown?
Having to go through the tanking years. Having to deal with all the injuries. Having to deal with the Colangelo fiasco. Then last season he has to deal with a major personnel trade early in the season and another one at the deadline. Now he's got another major personnel change to deal with which is probably going to require substantial changes to their offensive schemes.
I mean there are not really any arguments or stats we can really provide given that this is basically a completely new team that has not every played together. They will have two new starters, and a third starter that was only with the team for about 30 games. So we both have opinions on how it will work and how good they will be. Your opinion is naturally going to be a bit more optimistic if you are a fan of them and rooting for one of their players. My opinion on this?
I am not sure who on their team is taking all the off the dribble 3's and not set 3's that Reddick was taking for them the last few years (Reddick shot 8 a game last year!). Horford can hit threes for example, but he has a pretty slow release (me and my brother always referred to it as loading the tripod when he was on the celtics). He also went down quite a bit on 3's last year (nearly 7% from the year before). Is this just variance, or is it a sign of aging or related to his knee injury? If he goes down a few more % points he is below where Smart was last year. Now on the defensive end he has the potential to really really help them. They could be so good at defense that it doesn't matter if they are crappy at 3's. I am not sure how they will do against a bigger team. If the Lakers have Cousins, James and Davis on the floor is ben simmons guarding James? Is Horford trying to keep up with Davis?
I also think a big part of playoff basketball is having a guard/wing that can break people down off the dribble and offer layups, pullups and foul shots. Who is doing this for them down 1 in a playoff game with 20 seconds left. This has been huge for teams that have been successful in the playoffs recently. The Warriors had Durant, curry and Klay that could all do this. The Raptors had Leonard. The Bucks have Giannis. Embiid and Horford are probably not good for these situations, it is easier to double a big and embiid turns it over a lot in these situations. Horford obviously has never done this on his time with the Celtics. Simmons can't do it without a jumpshot (and is also a complete liability from the line). So you are left with Tobias Harris as your key guy to do this? That doesn't seem to be a recipe for success. They definitely will miss Butler in that regard.
I think they will be a really good team, especially next year if Horford is similar to this past year. However, I don't like them for playoff basketball. If we get one more big (not even a star, but someone like adams), i think we could take them out ourselves. Ill also add I don't think Brown is a good x's and o's coach and that is also a disadvantage for them in playoffs.
If they had ran back the same team with reddick and butler, I do think they would have won the east this year.