Interesting graphic about pick #30

[libermaniac]

This graphic, from draft express, shows the historical NBA success rate of picks from 15-30.  Danny has his work cut out for him!

[libermaniac]

Sorry, that's hard to read.  The bottom section (66% = out of nba), Then 33% = solid bench/marginal starter, 4% = solid starter, 0% = star.

[SShoreFan 2.0]

Sorry, that's hard to read.  The bottom section (66% = out of nba), Then 33% = solid bench/marginal starter, 4% = solid starter, 0% = star.

Fascinating stuff, where did you find it? 

It looks as if there's been some real success at the 29th pick though - I have blind faith in Danny.

[libermaniac]

Sorry, that's hard to read.  The bottom section (66% = out of nba), Then 33% = solid bench/marginal starter, 4% = solid starter, 0% = star.

Fascinating stuff, where did you find it? 

It looks as if there's been some real success at the 29th pick though - I have blind faith in Danny.

Sorry, here is the original link:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Word-on-the-Street-Rounding-Up-2940/

[crownsy]

Sorry, that's hard to read.  The bottom section (66% = out of nba), Then 33% = solid bench/marginal starter, 4% = solid starter, 0% = star.

Fascinating stuff, where did you find it? 

It looks as if there's been some real success at the 29th pick though - I have blind faith in Danny.

i noticed that to SS, can anyone think of the star 29th picks...im horrable at remebering where guys got picked, but 10% implies theres a good chunk of em.

[clover]

Those odds don't look that long to me, especially with Danny picking: a better than one in three chance of at least a solid bench player/marginal starter.

[Chris]

I think it is important to note that there has only been 3 players picked at #30 when it was in the first round (and drafting strategy can change drastically between first and second round), since the league only had 29 teams until 2004, and in 2004, Minnesota forfeited their pick, so there were only 29 teams picking that year.

The picks were: David Lee (solid contributor), Joel Freeland (too early to tell, because he is still in Europe), and Petteri Koponen (same).

I don't know how they figured this out.

Also, one of the guys picked with the 30th pick, when it was in the second round was Gilbert Arenas, so I am questioning how they did some of this research.

[Truth Hurts]

Carlos Boozer went at #34.

I never understood that one. He was so good at Duke. It really backs up Simmons' theory that GMs are idiots that fall in love with high schoolers and international players who never played at a high level anywhere.

Good thing he screwed Cleveland over. Lebron might have two rings already if he stayed. They never would have had the Drew Gooden debacle, and all the subsequent crappy moves after that. You could put almost anyone around Lebron, Booze and Z and they would be nasty.

[amenhotep04]

You also have to take into consideration what people are drafting for at those picks.  Flyer, project, back-up, insurance etc.  For the Celtics, it they draft a big man, . . . they're drafting for someone to spot fill in for Perk, and gradually develop.  Other positions will be more than likely for similar reasons.  So the expectations aren't there, nor are the opportunities.  So for the good teams, you really have to take into consideration what are the goals of the team picking?

If it's a bad team drafting, they probably have so many holes, or lack of continuity on the team that the player will struggle making it, as the whole team is in disarray. 

And of course, it's the 30th pick. I think however everyone here knows by now that the NBA draft is pretty much void of any scientific rigor. Let's just throw darts at a draft board and see how it turns out.

[Truth Hurts]

Shouldn't we be concerned about Perk's ongoing shoulder issues?

As much as I like the idea of taking a scoring 2 guard to develop behind Ray, I really do feel we could use another true center. PJ is probably gone, and Perk is foul prone and injury prone.

[Roy Hobbs]

It's interesting, but it doesn't tell us a whole lot about any individual pick.  I mean, is it better to have the #24 pick (or the #29 pick) than the #22 or #23 choice?  Obviously not, but historically, that's how it's broken down.

[Chris]

It's interesting, but it doesn't tell us a whole lot about any individual pick.  I mean, is it better to have the #24 pick (or the #29 pick) than the #22 or #23 choice?  Obviously not, but historically, that's how it's broken down.

I think what it does show you is that there are some "trap" picks, and there are some patterns of where stars are picked in the top 10.  For example pick 6 has a high bust rate, while pick 7 and 8  have a lower bust rate, but also fewer stars (so those are "safe pick" spots), then at 9 and 10, the star numbers shoot up again.

What I would really like to see is a comparison of the last 5 picks in round 1 vs. the first 5 picks in round 2.  I have a feeling the second rounders have more success. 

[ReadyFor17]

What I would really like to see is a comparison of the last 5 picks in round 1 vs. the first 5 picks in round 2.  I have a feeling the second rounders have more success. 

Here's the last five years:

2007
26 Aaron Brooks       31 Carl Landry         
27 Arron Afflalo      32 Gabe Pruitt
28 Tiago Splitter     33 Marcus Williams   
29 Alando Tucker      34 Nick Fazekas 
30 Petteri Koponen    35 Glen Davis

2006
26 Jordan Farmar      31 James White
27 Sergio Rodriguez   32 Steve Novak
28 Maurice Ager       33 Solomon Jones
29 Mardy Collins      34 Paul Davis
30 Joel Freeland      35 P.J. Tucker

2005 (Turiaf, Ellis, Louis Williams, Gomes and Amir Johnson were all drafted later in the 2nd round)
26 Jason Maxiell      31 Salim Stoudamire
27 Linas Kleiza       32 Daniel Ewing
28 Ian Mahinmi        33 Brandon Bass
29 Wayne Simien       34 C.J. Miles
30 David Lee          35 Ricky Sanchez

2004
25 Tony Allen         30 Anderson Varejao
26 Kevin Martin       31 Jackson Vroman
27 Sasha Vujacic      32 Peter John Ramos
28 Beno Udrih         33 Lionel Chalmers
29 David Harrison     34 Donta Smith

2003
25 Carlos Delfino     30 Maciej Lampe
26 Ndudi Ebi          31 Jason Kapono
27 Kendrick Perkins   32 Luke Walton
28 Leandrinho Barbosa 33 Jerome Beasly
29 Josh Howard        34 Sofoklis Schortsanitis

My completely subjective starter quality/productive bench players count:
1st round - 11 (7 starter quality) 2nd round - 6 (2 starter quality)

It's only five years and doesn't say much but the last five in the 1st rounders have had more success. Here's a breakdown of productive players and their previous playing experience.

1st round          2nd round
HS - 1             HS - 0 (Ellis and Williams picked later on)
NCAA - 8           NCAA - 5
Int - 2            Int - 1



                   
                     
                           
                           
 

     

[Donoghus]

What I would really like to see is a comparison of the last 5 picks in round 1 vs. the first 5 picks in round 2.  I have a feeling the second rounders have more success. 

Here's the last five years:

2007
26 Aaron Brooks       31 Carl Landry         
27 Arron Afflalo      32 Gabe Pruitt
28 Tiago Splitter     33 Marcus Williams   
29 Alando Tucker      34 Nick Fazekas 
30 Petteri Koponen    35 Glen Davis

2006
26 Jordan Farmar      31 James White
27 Sergio Rodriguez   32 Steve Novak
28 Maurice Ager       33 Solomon Jones
29 Mardy Collins      34 Paul Davis
30 Joel Freeland      35 P.J. Tucker

2005 (Turiaf, Ellis, Louis Williams, Gomes and Amir Johnson were all drafted later in the 2nd round)
26 Jason Maxiell      31 Salim Stoudamire
27 Linas Kleiza       32 Daniel Ewing
28 Ian Mahinmi        33 Brandon Bass
29 Wayne Simien       34 C.J. Miles
30 David Lee          35 Ricky Sanchez

2004
25 Tony Allen         30 Anderson Varejao
26 Kevin Martin       31 Jackson Vroman
27 Sasha Vujacic      32 Peter John Ramos
28 Beno Udrih         33 Lionel Chalmers
29 David Harrison     34 Donta Smith

2003
25 Carlos Delfino     30 Maciej Lampe
26 Ndudi Ebi          31 Jason Kapono
27 Kendrick Perkins   32 Luke Walton
28 Leandrinho Barbosa 33 Jerome Beasly
29 Josh Howard        34 Sofoklis Schortsanitis

My completely subjective starter quality/productive bench players count:
1st round - 11 (7 starter quality) 2nd round - 6 (2 starter quality)

It's only five years and doesn't say much but the last five in the 1st rounders have had more success. Here's a breakdown of productive players and their previous playing experience.

1st round          2nd round
HS - 1             HS - 0 (Ellis and Williams picked later on)
NCAA - 8           NCAA - 5
Int - 2            Int - 1



                   
                     
                           
                           
 

     

Nice find.

Definitely agree that the late first rounders seem to have had more success in this crop. 

[crownsy]

ok time out. look at the 29 spot for the last 5 years. according to the chart, as me and SS noticed, thats been a super productive spot accordign to the chart, yeilding 10% "stars" and 19% "soild starters"

im going to go home and look 5 more eyars back because looking at those picks, how is that possable?

I see the star, josh howard, but which of those other guys is a "soild starter" heck, most of them arent "solid bench contributers" which the chart credits a ton to this pick as well...

and, if josh is the only "star" player at this pick, does that mean it only goes back 10 years?

anyone know what drafts there using for this? or how far back they go.

The 5 29th picks listed thier seem to disagree with the chart. at least one of those guys should be a starter or solid bench contributer....