2024 NBA Season and Playoffs

[jbpats]

So there is potential to play the Heat first round who treat the regular season like a NHL team or the 76ers with a return of arguably the most dominate player in the NBA.. good times

[celticinorlando]

I do think Boston would be highly motivated and very interested if they drew Miami in round one.

[jpotter33]

https://x.com/wojespn/status/1774798524858683752?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Looks like Embiid may be targeting trying to come back this week, perhaps even tomorrow against OKC.

I bet they’re really trying to push to get that 6 seed, as well as give Embiid a handful of games to get back to speed. At the very least they’ll shoot for the 7 seed to host the play-in game to have a better chance of getting through the first round.

Agree with others that I’d love to see Miami and Philly in the 6 and 7 seeds in some order, with us getting one of Indy, Chicago, or Atlanta at 8. Wouldn’t mind drawing Atlanta and sweeping them after those two losses.

[hpantazo]

https://x.com/wojespn/status/1774798524858683752?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Looks like Embiid may be targeting trying to come back this week, perhaps even tomorrow against OKC.

I bet they’re really trying to push to get that 6 seed, as well as give Embiid a handful of games to get back to speed. At the very least they’ll shoot for the 7 seed to host the play-in game to have a better chance of getting through the first round.

Agree with others that I’d love to see Miami and Philly in the 6 and 7 seeds in some order, with us getting one of Indy, Chicago, or Atlanta at 8. Wouldn’t mind drawing Atlanta and sweeping them after those two losses.

I’m curious to see how he looks when he returns. Obviously that will go a long way in determining how much of a threat the Sixers will be.

[celticinorlando]

Embiid seems to run out of gas when he is somewhat healthy. Going to be interesting coming off knee surgery.

I just do not think Philly even with Embiid (who to me will not be close to 100 percent for the playoffs) can beat Boston or the Bucks.

[Who]

I like Orlando as a better playoff team than regular season team because they are a top notch defensive squad. They make life very difficult for their opponent.

They are one high level offensive piece away from being a title contender but will be a tough out in the interim.

[Who]

Last 51 games Giddey has had these stats:

24mpg, 12.4ppg @ 58.3% TS, 6.4rpg, 4.6apg, 1.8topg

36% from 3
57% from 2
83% from FT

Someone on RealGM posted that. Good consistent play over a long period (51 games) after a rough start to the season.

[Moranis]

I like Orlando as a better playoff team than regular season team because they are a top notch defensive squad. They make life very difficult for their opponent.

They are one high level offensive piece away from being a title contender but will be a tough out in the interim.

I just don't buy a team whose ranked 23rd in offensive rating, and whose 3rd leading scorer is at 12.4 ppg and the top 2 are just 22.4 and 19 5.  Banchero just isn't ready for #1 player in the playoffs yet.  He needs a couple more years to be at that level.  The Magic aren't going to be able to score enough to be a real threat to the top level teams

[celticsclay]

There are regular season teams and then there are playoff teams. And there are often differences. In fact, in the East Boston is the only team I'd have in the top 4 for each (and they are 1 in both).

Regular season
Boston, Orlando, New York, Cleveland

Post season
Boston, Milwaukee, Miami, Philly (with Embiid)

To win in each requires different things.  To win in the playoffs you need a top level reliable player and you just don't need that in the regular season where quality depth is far more important to winning. Take the Cavs, they have a bunch of really good players and very solid overall depth, but they don't have a top 15 player to take over when you need him to in the playoffs.  The depth has allowed them to withstand injuries and win at a good level in the regular season, but they aren't a deep playoff contender.  And conversely a team like the Bucks can look like a train wreck at times in the regular season, but when push comes to shove they have 2 top level players they can rely on to finish games.

Isn’t Mitchell someone that can take over a playoff game for the Cavs? He has had some pretty good success in the last individually https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/donovan-mitchell-playoff-stats

and yet that led to very limited team success.

I mean I don’t think they under achieved. They just didn’t have enough talent. In his best playoff run 2020-2021 they lost to the clippers in the second round as Mitchell averaged like 35 points. That jazz team had Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, clarkson, ingles etc. how far should that team have gone if not the second round? This Cleveland certainly has more talent than that team imo with garland, Mobley, Allen and Mitchell. Now the Cavs did underperform last year in the playoffs but I wouldn’t completely
Write them off based on that.

[Moranis]

There are regular season teams and then there are playoff teams. And there are often differences. In fact, in the East Boston is the only team I'd have in the top 4 for each (and they are 1 in both).

Regular season
Boston, Orlando, New York, Cleveland

Post season
Boston, Milwaukee, Miami, Philly (with Embiid)

To win in each requires different things.  To win in the playoffs you need a top level reliable player and you just don't need that in the regular season where quality depth is far more important to winning. Take the Cavs, they have a bunch of really good players and very solid overall depth, but they don't have a top 15 player to take over when you need him to in the playoffs.  The depth has allowed them to withstand injuries and win at a good level in the regular season, but they aren't a deep playoff contender.  And conversely a team like the Bucks can look like a train wreck at times in the regular season, but when push comes to shove they have 2 top level players they can rely on to finish games.

Isn’t Mitchell someone that can take over a playoff game for the Cavs? He has had some pretty good success in the last individually https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/donovan-mitchell-playoff-stats

and yet that led to very limited team success.

I mean I don’t think they under achieved. They just didn’t have enough talent. In his best playoff run 2020-2021 they lost to the clippers in the second round as Mitchell averaged like 35 points. That jazz team had Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, clarkson, ingles etc. how far should that team have gone if not the second round? This Cleveland certainly has more talent than that team imo with garland, Mobley, Allen and Mitchell. Now the Cavs did underperform last year in the playoffs but I wouldn’t completely
Write them off based on that.

the 21 Clippers lost Kawhi in game 4 with the series tied at 2. The Jazz were at home in game 5 and Mitchell was 6 of 19 and they lost at home.  Then in game 6, Mitchell basically got out dueled by Terrance Mann.  The Jazz that year, were the top seed in the West.  You know basically a great regular season team that isn't built like a playoff team because Mitchell is quite simply not good enough.  You need that guy and that isn't Mitchell. If the Cavs become a true contender with this group it will be because Mobley reaches that upper echelon and that looks less and less likely to happen.

[celticsclay]

There are regular season teams and then there are playoff teams. And there are often differences. In fact, in the East Boston is the only team I'd have in the top 4 for each (and they are 1 in both).

Regular season
Boston, Orlando, New York, Cleveland

Post season
Boston, Milwaukee, Miami, Philly (with Embiid)

To win in each requires different things.  To win in the playoffs you need a top level reliable player and you just don't need that in the regular season where quality depth is far more important to winning. Take the Cavs, they have a bunch of really good players and very solid overall depth, but they don't have a top 15 player to take over when you need him to in the playoffs.  The depth has allowed them to withstand injuries and win at a good level in the regular season, but they aren't a deep playoff contender.  And conversely a team like the Bucks can look like a train wreck at times in the regular season, but when push comes to shove they have 2 top level players they can rely on to finish games.

Isn’t Mitchell someone that can take over a playoff game for the Cavs? He has had some pretty good success in the last individually https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/donovan-mitchell-playoff-stats

and yet that led to very limited team success.

I mean I don’t think they under achieved. They just didn’t have enough talent. In his best playoff run 2020-2021 they lost to the clippers in the second round as Mitchell averaged like 35 points. That jazz team had Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, clarkson, ingles etc. how far should that team have gone if not the second round? This Cleveland certainly has more talent than that team imo with garland, Mobley, Allen and Mitchell. Now the Cavs did underperform last year in the playoffs but I wouldn’t completely
Write them off based on that.

the 21 Clippers lost Kawhi in game 4 with the series tied at 2. The Jazz were at home in game 5 and Mitchell was 6 of 19 and they lost at home.  Then in game 6, Mitchell basically got out dueled by Terrance Mann.  The Jazz that year, were the top seed in the West.  You know basically a great regular season team that isn't built like a playoff team because Mitchell is quite simply not good enough.  You need that guy and that isn't Mitchell. If the Cavs become a true contender with this group it will be because Mobley reaches that upper echelon and that looks less and less likely to happen.

Mitchell did have a stinker in game 5 but hard to pin the game 6 on him when he had 39 points 9 rebounds and 9 assists. I think the Gobert was a much bigger disappointment that playoff run than Mitchell. If Mitchell is bad in this years run I would agree with you, but I think he has a chance at monster games.

[Moranis]

There are regular season teams and then there are playoff teams. And there are often differences. In fact, in the East Boston is the only team I'd have in the top 4 for each (and they are 1 in both).

Regular season
Boston, Orlando, New York, Cleveland

Post season
Boston, Milwaukee, Miami, Philly (with Embiid)

To win in each requires different things.  To win in the playoffs you need a top level reliable player and you just don't need that in the regular season where quality depth is far more important to winning. Take the Cavs, they have a bunch of really good players and very solid overall depth, but they don't have a top 15 player to take over when you need him to in the playoffs.  The depth has allowed them to withstand injuries and win at a good level in the regular season, but they aren't a deep playoff contender.  And conversely a team like the Bucks can look like a train wreck at times in the regular season, but when push comes to shove they have 2 top level players they can rely on to finish games.

Isn’t Mitchell someone that can take over a playoff game for the Cavs? He has had some pretty good success in the last individually https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/donovan-mitchell-playoff-stats

and yet that led to very limited team success.

I mean I don’t think they under achieved. They just didn’t have enough talent. In his best playoff run 2020-2021 they lost to the clippers in the second round as Mitchell averaged like 35 points. That jazz team had Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, clarkson, ingles etc. how far should that team have gone if not the second round? This Cleveland certainly has more talent than that team imo with garland, Mobley, Allen and Mitchell. Now the Cavs did underperform last year in the playoffs but I wouldn’t completely
Write them off based on that.

the 21 Clippers lost Kawhi in game 4 with the series tied at 2. The Jazz were at home in game 5 and Mitchell was 6 of 19 and they lost at home.  Then in game 6, Mitchell basically got out dueled by Terrance Mann.  The Jazz that year, were the top seed in the West.  You know basically a great regular season team that isn't built like a playoff team because Mitchell is quite simply not good enough.  You need that guy and that isn't Mitchell. If the Cavs become a true contender with this group it will be because Mobley reaches that upper echelon and that looks less and less likely to happen.

Mitchell did have a stinker in game 5 but hard to pin the game 6 on him when he had 39 points 9 rebounds and 9 assists. I think the Gobert was a much bigger disappointment that playoff run than Mitchell. If Mitchell is bad in this years run I would agree with you, but I think he has a chance at monster games.

Utah was up 4 ending to the 4th quarter of that game 6.  Mitchell was 2 of 8 for 9 points with 2 assists, and 1 rebound (along with a turnover). He was also just 3 of 6 from the line.  Patrick Beverley essentially neutralized him in the 4th quarter, playing all 12 minutes (he only had 27 in the game).  That is the problem with Mitchell.  He isn't a good enough player to be a #1 guy.  He also doesn't defend basically at all.    Mitchell can certainly have big scoring games as he is an excellent scorer, but he has come up small in big moments a lot, gets torched on defense, and even with those big scoring games there is about a 50/50 shot of his team losing.  Mitchell is a great regular season player, but he isn't leading a team anywhere in the post season. He just isn't good enough.  That doesn't seem controversial at all, not sure why you are arguing the point.

[celticsclay]

There are regular season teams and then there are playoff teams. And there are often differences. In fact, in the East Boston is the only team I'd have in the top 4 for each (and they are 1 in both).

Regular season
Boston, Orlando, New York, Cleveland

Post season
Boston, Milwaukee, Miami, Philly (with Embiid)

To win in each requires different things.  To win in the playoffs you need a top level reliable player and you just don't need that in the regular season where quality depth is far more important to winning. Take the Cavs, they have a bunch of really good players and very solid overall depth, but they don't have a top 15 player to take over when you need him to in the playoffs.  The depth has allowed them to withstand injuries and win at a good level in the regular season, but they aren't a deep playoff contender.  And conversely a team like the Bucks can look like a train wreck at times in the regular season, but when push comes to shove they have 2 top level players they can rely on to finish games.

Isn’t Mitchell someone that can take over a playoff game for the Cavs? He has had some pretty good success in the last individually https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/donovan-mitchell-playoff-stats

and yet that led to very limited team success.

I mean I don’t think they under achieved. They just didn’t have enough talent. In his best playoff run 2020-2021 they lost to the clippers in the second round as Mitchell averaged like 35 points. That jazz team had Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, clarkson, ingles etc. how far should that team have gone if not the second round? This Cleveland certainly has more talent than that team imo with garland, Mobley, Allen and Mitchell. Now the Cavs did underperform last year in the playoffs but I wouldn’t completely
Write them off based on that.

the 21 Clippers lost Kawhi in game 4 with the series tied at 2. The Jazz were at home in game 5 and Mitchell was 6 of 19 and they lost at home.  Then in game 6, Mitchell basically got out dueled by Terrance Mann.  The Jazz that year, were the top seed in the West.  You know basically a great regular season team that isn't built like a playoff team because Mitchell is quite simply not good enough.  You need that guy and that isn't Mitchell. If the Cavs become a true contender with this group it will be because Mobley reaches that upper echelon and that looks less and less likely to happen.

Mitchell did have a stinker in game 5 but hard to pin the game 6 on him when he had 39 points 9 rebounds and 9 assists. I think the Gobert was a much bigger disappointment that playoff run than Mitchell. If Mitchell is bad in this years run I would agree with you, but I think he has a chance at monster games.

Utah was up 4 ending to the 4th quarter of that game 6.  Mitchell was 2 of 8 for 9 points with 2 assists, and 1 rebound (along with a turnover). He was also just 3 of 6 from the line.  Patrick Beverley essentially neutralized him in the 4th quarter, playing all 12 minutes (he only had 27 in the game).  That is the problem with Mitchell.  He isn't a good enough player to be a #1 guy.  He also doesn't defend basically at all.    Mitchell can certainly have big scoring games as he is an excellent scorer, but he has come up small in big moments a lot, gets torched on defense, and even with those big scoring games there is about a 50/50 shot of his team losing.  Mitchell is a great regular season player, but he isn't leading a team anywhere in the post season. He just isn't good enough.  That doesn't seem controversial at all, not sure why you are arguing the point.

I don’t think we know how good he can be in the playoffs yet. His second best player before Cleveland was Rudy Gobert. You put most top 15 guys on a team where the second best player is Rudy Gobert and you are not getting out of the second round (and many years the first round). The first team all NBA guys like Doncic, Giannis or Jokic, yeah they usually would. Then again doncic didn’t even make the playoffs last year and a guy like Embid has never been past the second round. Seems like a crazy bar to use on whether a guy is a top 15 player. Don’t really get how that is controversial either.

[Phantom255x]

I really hope DEN is the 1 seed, mainly because I have zero faith in OKC beating LAL in a first round series and then LAL has a pretty favorable path to at least the WCF again.

[A Future of Stevens]

I do think Boston would be highly motivated and very interested if they drew Miami in round one.

This would be my personal nightmare fuel given Miami's history. However, beating down Miami in round one could only give them a ton of confidence.