Finals matchups: Per and RR (long)

[Tenacious D]

Match-ups: Rolands and PERS (long)

The talking Heads have swooned for LA.  What do the numbers have to say about it?  Here's a run-down of  PER and Roland ratings for both teams, broken down by position. 

Front court.  Garnett 25.5 +14 7 &  Perkins 13  +0.9 vs Gasol 24.5 +8 & Odom 17 +8.  Per, which favor scoring, favors LA, so  Perk's assets dont show up. Gasol will have to work harder to get easy looks in the post and Odom will have to contend with Garnett.

Swingmen.  Pierce 19 +10 & Allen 16 +4 vs Kobe 24.5 +12  & Radmanovic 12.7 0.1. Or Walton 12.4 -1.9.  On the one hand you have the MVP and a role player; on other the other, two all-stars.  Strength in numbers?  Maybe.   LBJ did not have near as much help as Kobe will (after his  monster 29 +15, the Cavs next best was 18 +4) -and he still pushed Boston to the brink.  Still, kobe cant guard both of them.

Point. Rondo 15 + 4 vs Fish 13 .9 -2.   Two different games here: Rondo with the drive and dish, Fish with drop and pop.   Fish protects the ball well (4.1 A/T ratio) and will presumably make fewer mistakes but Rondo has the length and athleticism to make the best of this match-up.  Off the bench, its Farmar 15.5 0.8 vs House 13.1 0.2  or  Cassell 11.1 -7.2.  Eddie has the better numbers and may be the better match to Farmar's speed.

Bench. Posey 12.1 -5.6 &  Powe  21.1 0.3  & Brown 10.3  -8.2  vs Turiaf 15.1 -1.,4, Walton 12.4  -1.9 & Vujacic 15.2 0.6.  Here's where the stat system breaks down. Pers and RRs give the edge to LA, but the C's veterans  may be worth more than the collective sum of their stats.  Take Posey. He doesn't score enough to rate a high per and plays a lot with KG/PP on the bench, which affects his RR, but kills you with D and the 3-ball.   Judging by numbers alone, tho, it would be in the C's interests to get Powe on the floor.

Bottom line.  All predictions start with the assumption that Kobe is the man, KG has higher PER and RR, was the DPOY and valid MVP candidate,  Pierce performs at a higher level than LAs small forwards.  leave him, and you open up Ray,  Rondo has an edge on Fisher and, frankly, the strengths of Boston's bench does not show on the stat line. Certainly, LA is about to be facing the tightest D they have seen in the playoffs, while Boston should find the Lakes less stifiling than Atlanta, Cleveland or Detroit.  Speaking of those guys, LA dropped to the Cle and split with Atl and Det.  Advantage, Boston.