Keys to the Finals

[Roy Hobbs]

Former NBA player and current Phoenix Suns announcer Eddie Johnson has a blog, and has recently broken down the Celtics/Lakers matchup.  I thought his analysis was pretty solid (and I particularly liked his pick of the Celtics in six).

Here are his keys to the series:

LAKERS WIN IF…

1. Kobe Bryant dominates the series with his scoring and defense. Boston’s defense is geared toward smothering star players and taking the ball out of their hands. But if Kobe is still scoring regardless, the Celtics are in serious trouble.

2. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol keep Kendrick Perkins on the bench and forces Doc Rivers to play James Posey, which then allows Phil Jackson to isolate and post Odom when Garnett has to guard Gasol. Odom is the Lakers’ key player in this series and Jackson will focus on taking advantage of this matchup. PJ Brown will give a solid few minutes, but it still helps the Lakers with a very good rebounder like Perkins on the bench.

3. Pau Gasol matches the production of Garnett, which would be devastating for Boston. The Lakers are a great offensive team and Gasol equaling Garnett would give them a tremendous advantage. The Poodle will have to play like a Doberman against the hyper Garnett.

4. Kobe, Derek Fisher and Sasha Vujacic continue to keep Ray Allen inconsistent. The key is to take away one of the Big Three and Allen seems to be the most vulnerable coming into the series.

5. The Lakers bench, led by Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic, continue to dominate in the middle quarters when Kobe is resting. Phil Jackson is counting on this unit to win the plus-minus against Boston’s bench, which has been up and down.

6. They score over 100 a game. If that happens, the Celtics will go away quickly. The Lakers will try and force tempo and if that happens this series will be over in a hurry.

CELTICS WIN IF…

1. Kevin Garnett spends equal time in the post as he does on the perimeter and averages 20 or better for the series. We know his defense will be solid, but the Celtics need his interior scoring and if he gives it to them the Celtics will have success in this series.

2. Paul Pierce forces Phil Jackson to defend him with Kobe. Jackson will try every avenue to keep Kobe away from the physical Pierce. But if he is having his way with Vladimir Radmanovic and Luke Walton, Jackson will have no choice and that would spell trouble for the Lakers. Pierce draws fouls better than any small forward in the league.

3. Ray Allen, quite frankly, becomes Ray Allen. Allen showed some signs in the latter stages of the Pistons series and if he catches fire the Lakers are in deep trouble. The Lakers have one player that can virtually carry a team for a game. The Celtics have three and Allen is due.

4. Kendrick Perkins finds a way to stay on the floor and dominates the glass, especially on the offensive end. This would negate the Lakers getting easy transition baskets and most importantly slow down the pace of the game. The Lakers will give Perkins open shots and he has to be ready to knock them down.

5. Rajon Rondo continues to grow and be steady on the offensive end. He will definitely give Derek Fisher problems with his defensive pressure, but he must make the Lakers pay when they use Fisher to roam and provide help defense.

6. Doc Rivers finally relents and gives Eddie House some solid minutes. The Celtics need consistent scoring against the Lakers. House can change the flow of the game with his shooting. Rivers was afraid to use him against the defensive pressure of Lindsey Hunter and the Pistons, but neither Farmar nor Fisher should bother House in this series to the extent Hunter did.

Anybody have more to add, or disagree with EJ's analysis?

[Bahku]

Great analysis, and pretty much dead-on. The only thing I would add is his leaving out a couple of factors that may give LA a few surprises, mainly Leon Powe and Big Baby, (if the latter can minimize his tendency to make immature mistakes ... the same problem Rage has). I think he's selling our bench a bit short, but I'd rather he make errors in favor of LA anyway. Good job by Eddie.

[CoachBo]

I'm shocked, shocked to find an analyst without the bright lights of Hollywood in their eyes.

 

A couple of extra thoughts: I think one big advantage Doc has is the flexibility to run several defenders at Kobe: Pierce, Posey, Ray, etc. I don't think you can play Bryant one way consistently throughout this series. I think you run different defenders at him, you try to turn him into a jump shooter and you punish him physically when he tries to get to the rim. I'd like to see it established early in game one that there's going to be a physical toll for Kobe if he tries to get into the lane. Put him down, and put him down hard.

I agree with the importance of Perkins. He cannot foul 40 feet from the bucket, and he's got to stop wasting fouls because he can't set a legal screen.

On the nights when the game's called loosely, he needs to beat Gasol and Odom with everything short of a coffee table leg. When the game's called tightly, he's got to recognize that and be smart about it.

He'll have some help. We can use PJ, Baby and Powe to beat on the soft Laker front line as well. But Perkins can be a huge factor in this series if he plays intelligently. That's a big if.

[kw10]

Also this is a statistical breakdown on the 2 teams, the analysis I think is good (but less in depth) and I agree mostly to them.

http://www.nba.com/finals2008/styles_20080602.html

So pretty much, protect the paint, give it to KG and PP down low, pass the ball around while taking care of it, control the board and stop everyone and let Kobe do his scoring.

And I think slowing the game down would be key to the Celtics although we can win quick-paced games, but a grind-it-out type of game would be advantageous to us.

[Eja117]

I think some people talk about how the Celts might be tired cause of the 20 games it took them and the 15 games it took the Lakers, but over the course of their careers Kobe and the Lakers have played way more playoff games plus there are Olympic and all-star games and then there's the preseason and 5 games is just a tiny percentage, plus there's the rest in between. Maaayyybe it's a small factor if they get to a game 7 or something, but that's at home

[wdleehi]

Nice breakdown.


Couple things.  The Celtics were able to get Pistons big men into foul trouble.  What happens to LA if the same thing happens?

If Perkins gets in foul trouble, Celtics need to go with Brown on Gasol.  KG shuts down Odom.  No need to suddenly allow him to get off. 

[libermaniac]

I think some people talk about how the Celts might be tired cause of the 20 games it took them and the 15 games it took the Lakers...

Ya, I think this is a non-factor as well because a) they've had 5 days off in-between b) The Celtics rested down the stretch in the regular whereas the Lakers were in a dogfight for the #1 seed.

[drza44]

I think this is solid analysis.  I just posted a bunch of my own thoughts in the 'koolaid' thread, but maybe I should have posted them here instead.  The cliffnotes version is that, stylistically, I think the Cs have a better chance to impose their style upon the Lakers than vice-versa.

One of the big keys is that at the Lakers' offensive generating positions (Kobe, Gasol, and Odom) the Cs are extremely strong on defense (KG and Perkins down low, and Posey/Pierce on the perimeter).  On the other hand, the Celts' main offensive generators (KG and Pierce) are coming off facing multiple DPoY candidates and physical frontlines, and they are about to be faced with Odom and Radmanovic.  I think this is a crucial point in looking at this series.

[wdleehi]

KG is going to take out one of the Laker bigs.  (most likely Odom)

Do the Lakers produce enough offense from Kobe and Gasol to win a 7 game series?  (not even looking at what Perkins can do to Gasol and the Celtics did to Kobe this season) 

The loss of Odom on offense really hurts the lakers triangle.


And if Perkins get stuck on Odom on a switch, I have less worry about him being able to make good defensive plays after watching him switch on Billups and Wallace on the outside in the last series. 

[Who]

The most important factor for me is Paul Pierce. If he can match Kobe Bryant or close to it the Celtics will stand a brilliant chance of winning.

If Paul doesn't with Kobe's production and is more along PP's regular season numbers then a whole litany of factors come into. Too many factors. If Paul is down around 20-24, KG at 20 and Ray around his 17 that'll put Boston at 51ppg. If Kobe gets 30, Gasol 16, Odom 14 they're up around 60ppg. The reason why I'm saying this? This is where San Antonio lost the series.

I think the Lakers supporting cast wins a scoring fight against Boston. The Big Three will have to outplay LA's counterparts, specifically in the scoring department. The Lakers supporting cast was the reason why San Antonio was always fighting an uphill battle and needed somewhere along the lines of 75ppg from their trio .... Lakers supporting cast puts a lot of pressure on the oppositions' best players to be productive.

Paul Pierce is the most likely of the Big Three to explode for top level go-to scoring. If he does the C's should be in good shape.

[Hoops]

The most important factor for me is Paul Pierce. If he can match Kobe Bryant or close to it the Celtics will stand a brilliant chance of winning.

If Paul doesn't with Kobe's production and is more along PP's regular season numbers then a whole litany of factors come into. Too many factors. If Paul is down around 20-24, KG at 20 and Ray around his 17 that'll put Boston at 51ppg. If Kobe gets 30, Gasol 16, Odom 14 they're up around 60ppg. The reason why I'm saying this? This is where San Antonio lost the series.

I think the Lakers supporting cast wins a scoring fight against Boston. The Big Three will have to outplay LA's counterparts, specifically in the scoring department. The Lakers supporting cast was the reason why San Antonio was always fighting an uphill battle and needed somewhere along the lines of 75ppg from their trio .... Lakers supporting cast puts a lot of pressure on the oppositions' best players to be productive.

Paul Pierce is the most likely of the Big Three to explode for top level go-to scoring. If he does the C's should be in good shape.

Interesting point with the numbers though your math is a bit off. If Pierce only scores 20, KG 20 and Ray 17, that puts the C's at 57, not 51. I agree that whichever team's "big three" scores more will have a big advantage. But the way I see it, the C's three should get more than 57 per game. 20/20/17 is sort of a worst-case scenario - at least one of those guys is likely to go off for 25-30 on any given night. Also, this is where I would hope House makes a difference. If he comes in and can knock down a couple of 3s in short minutes, that potentially makes a big difference.

[Who]

The most important factor for me is Paul Pierce. If he can match Kobe Bryant or close to it the Celtics will stand a brilliant chance of winning.

If Paul doesn't with Kobe's production and is more along PP's regular season numbers then a whole litany of factors come into. Too many factors. If Paul is down around 20-24, KG at 20 and Ray around his 17 that'll put Boston at 51ppg. If Kobe gets 30, Gasol 16, Odom 14 they're up around 60ppg. The reason why I'm saying this? This is where San Antonio lost the series.

I think the Lakers supporting cast wins a scoring fight against Boston. The Big Three will have to outplay LA's counterparts, specifically in the scoring department. The Lakers supporting cast was the reason why San Antonio was always fighting an uphill battle and needed somewhere along the lines of 75ppg from their trio .... Lakers supporting cast puts a lot of pressure on the oppositions' best players to be productive.

Paul Pierce is the most likely of the Big Three to explode for top level go-to scoring. If he does the C's should be in good shape.

Interesting point with the numbers though your math is a bit off. If Pierce only scores 20, KG 20 and Ray 17, that puts the C's at 57, not 51. I agree that whichever team's "big three" scores more will have a big advantage. But the way I see it, the C's three should get more than 57 per game. 20/20/17 is sort of a worst-case scenario - at least one of those guys is likely to go off for 25-30 on any given night. Also, this is where I would hope House makes a difference. If he comes in and can knock down a couple of 3s in short minutes, that potentially makes a big difference.

You're right, forgot to add my 1, poor addition, 61 not 51. That would be 61 versus 60 points. That would be very even.

Would that be good enough to win? I think they need a clear advantage of 7-10 points over the Lakers trio scoring wise. Or else Rondo needs to have 13-15ppg average to aid beating out the Lakers supporting cast.

Another important point of the situation is that while the C's are able to beat their averages so too would the Lakers ... Odom is capable of scoring more than 14ppg and Gasol can score more than 16ppg.

Just a quick look at the Lakers scoring supporting cast - Radmanovic, Fisher, Farmer, Vujacic, Walton and Turiaf. That's a lot of offensive threats for Boston's supporting cast to match. Boston would have - Rondo, House, Posey, Perk, PJ and maybe Powe if he's playing. Powe should play.

[drza44]

The most important factor for me is Paul Pierce. If he can match Kobe Bryant or close to it the Celtics will stand a brilliant chance of winning.

If Paul doesn't with Kobe's production and is more along PP's regular season numbers then a whole litany of factors come into. Too many factors. If Paul is down around 20-24, KG at 20 and Ray around his 17 that'll put Boston at 51ppg. If Kobe gets 30, Gasol 16, Odom 14 they're up around 60ppg. The reason why I'm saying this? This is where San Antonio lost the series.

I think the Lakers supporting cast wins a scoring fight against Boston. The Big Three will have to outplay LA's counterparts, specifically in the scoring department. The Lakers supporting cast was the reason why San Antonio was always fighting an uphill battle and needed somewhere along the lines of 75ppg from their trio .... Lakers supporting cast puts a lot of pressure on the oppositions' best players to be productive.

Paul Pierce is the most likely of the Big Three to explode for top level go-to scoring. If he does the C's should be in good shape.

Interesting point with the numbers though your math is a bit off. If Pierce only scores 20, KG 20 and Ray 17, that puts the C's at 57, not 51. I agree that whichever team's "big three" scores more will have a big advantage. But the way I see it, the C's three should get more than 57 per game. 20/20/17 is sort of a worst-case scenario - at least one of those guys is likely to go off for 25-30 on any given night. Also, this is where I would hope House makes a difference. If he comes in and can knock down a couple of 3s in short minutes, that potentially makes a big difference.

You beat me to it, Hoops.  Who, by your numbers, the two trios would basically cancel out with the Celtics in the 57 - 61 range vs. the Lakers 60.

But honestly, like Hoops, I expect the Celtics to score more.  KG (22.8 ), Pierce (19.7 ), and Allen (17.5) averaged exactly 60 ppg against the Pistons.  The Pistons play a slower pace and have a higher defensive efficiency than the Lakers.  Instead of DPoY candidates Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace, Pierce and KG will be facing Radmanovic and Odom.  I actually expect KG and Pierce to average 45 - 50 ppg by themselves.

[wdleehi]

Just for the fun of it, the Boston trio have averaged 67 points against the lakers.

The lakers trio averaged 46


But since Gasol never played with the Lakers against the Cetlics

Bryant/Odom averaged 34 points against the Celtics. 

That means the addition of Gasol has to mean an increase of 33 points to equal what the Celtics three have been doing to the Lakers.