Author Topic: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?  (Read 13324 times)

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Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #45 on: June 03, 2008, 03:17:26 AM »

Offline pslakerfan

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Wow, I have been reading all of the comments on this post and I am overwhelmed.  I see a lot of flaws in peoples arguments, so I will try to catch up.

First, I see the same flaw here that I saw on the Spurs blog.  There was a lot of this - "Duncan should dominate Pau", "Tony Parker will destroy Fisher", "Bowen will stop Kobe", "no one can stop Ginobili", etc.   All of these things are reasonable, but to think that all of them will happen at the same time is ridiculous.  The match-ups proposed in this post are all reasonable, but not likely as a whole.  For one thing while I will entertain the idea that Kobe could have a bad series, it is equally likely that he will absolutely dominate whoever guards him.  This is what happened with the Spurs.  In my opinion people tend to think of match-ups in a 10 point must style like boxing.  (Boxer A gets 10 points and Boxer B gets 9 unless Boxer A totally dominates Boxer B)  With Kobe it tends to be like 10 pts for Kobe and 2 for his opponent.  My point is that Kobe's advantage tends to cancel out the slight advantage of 2 or 3 other players.

Also I find the "great offense" vs. "great defense" debate to be a misconception.  If you check out 82games.com (a great site for stats) you will see a lot more in depth statistics for the playoffs.  For instance the Lakers average 116 pts. per 100 possessions (which is awesome) but give up 109 pts. per 100 possessions (which sucks)  The Celtics average 108 pts. per 100 possessions (decent), but give up only 101 pts. per 100 possessions (great)  Both teams have a differential of 7 pts per 100 possessions.  Point is they are basically equal, but play a different type of game.  I suppose you could say that the team that controls the tempo has the advantage.

Personally I think the match-up thing is overrated as this is a team game.  What I mean is that when you look at the 5 Lakers vs. the 5 Celtics and the respective benches things seem pretty equal.  Different, but equal.

Now on to something we can all agree on.  CAN WE PLEASE START THIS ****' SERIES ALREADY.  This is driving me nuts.  It's like being naked in bed with a lovely lady and having to talk about what we are going to do to each other for 4 hours.  I am losing my mind.  Also it will be nice to have something tangible to talk about for a day or two.  This hypothetical stuff is killing me.

Later...........

Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #46 on: June 03, 2008, 03:46:21 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Wow, I have been reading all of the comments on this post and I am overwhelmed.  I see a lot of flaws in peoples arguments, so I will try to catch up.

First, I see the same flaw here that I saw on the Spurs blog.  There was a lot of this - "Duncan should dominate Pau", "Tony Parker will destroy Fisher", "Bowen will stop Kobe", "no one can stop Ginobili", etc.   All of these things are reasonable, but to think that all of them will happen at the same time is ridiculous.  The match-ups proposed in this post are all reasonable, but not likely as a whole.  For one thing while I will entertain the idea that Kobe could have a bad series, it is equally likely that he will absolutely dominate whoever guards him.  This is what happened with the Spurs.  In my opinion people tend to think of match-ups in a 10 point must style like boxing.  (Boxer A gets 10 points and Boxer B gets 9 unless Boxer A totally dominates Boxer B)  With Kobe it tends to be like 10 pts for Kobe and 2 for his opponent.  My point is that Kobe's advantage tends to cancel out the slight advantage of 2 or 3 other players.

Also I find the "great offense" vs. "great defense" debate to be a misconception.  If you check out 82games.com (a great site for stats) you will see a lot more in depth statistics for the playoffs.  For instance the Lakers average 116 pts. per 100 possessions (which is awesome) but give up 109 pts. per 100 possessions (which sucks)  The Celtics average 108 pts. per 100 possessions (decent), but give up only 101 pts. per 100 possessions (great)  Both teams have a differential of 7 pts per 100 possessions.  Point is they are basically equal, but play a different type of game.  I suppose you could say that the team that controls the tempo has the advantage.


  The other thing you need to notice in the 82games playoff section is the "last updated 5/13/2008" part.

Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #47 on: June 03, 2008, 03:54:08 AM »

Offline BballTim

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If the Lakers win in 5 you'd have to say we are among the best ever- right? 

Why would you have to say that?

a.  Considering how GREAT the Celtics are... to beat them in 5 would be a herculean task fit for only a truly great team, no?

  No team that's had the amount of turnover as the Celts has made it to the finals, or at least not for a vey long time. I think herculean is something of an exaggeration.

Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #48 on: June 03, 2008, 03:54:08 AM »

Offline Bahku

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Quote
Wow, I have been reading all of the comments on this post and I am overwhelmed.  I see a lot of flaws in peoples arguments, so I will try to catch up.

First, I see the same flaw here that I saw on the Spurs blog.  There was a lot of this - "Duncan should dominate Pau", "Tony Parker will destroy Fisher", "Bowen will stop Kobe", "no one can stop Ginobili", etc.   All of these things are reasonable, but to think that all of them will happen at the same time is ridiculous.  The match-ups proposed in this post are all reasonable, but not likely as a whole.  For one thing while I will entertain the idea that Kobe could have a bad series, it is equally likely that he will absolutely dominate whoever guards him.  This is what happened with the Spurs.  In my opinion people tend to think of match-ups in a 10 point must style like boxing.  (Boxer A gets 10 points and Boxer B gets 9 unless Boxer A totally dominates Boxer B)  With Kobe it tends to be like 10 pts for Kobe and 2 for his opponent.  My point is that Kobe's advantage tends to cancel out the slight advantage of 2 or 3 other players.

Also I find the "great offense" vs. "great defense" debate to be a misconception.  If you check out 82games.com (a great site for stats) you will see a lot more in depth statistics for the playoffs.  For instance the Lakers average 116 pts. per 100 possessions (which is awesome) but give up 109 pts. per 100 possessions (which sucks)  The Celtics average 108 pts. per 100 possessions (decent), but give up only 101 pts. per 100 possessions (great)  Both teams have a differential of 7 pts per 100 possessions.  Point is they are basically equal, but play a different type of game.  I suppose you could say that the team that controls the tempo has the advantage.

Personally I think the match-up thing is overrated as this is a team game.  What I mean is that when you look at the 5 Lakers vs. the 5 Celtics and the respective benches things seem pretty equal.  Different, but equal.

Now on to something we can all agree on.  CAN WE PLEASE START THIS ****' SERIES ALREADY.  This is driving me nuts.  It's like being naked in bed with a lovely lady and having to talk about what we are going to do to each other for 4 hours.  I am losing my mind.  Also it will be nice to have something tangible to talk about for a day or two.  This hypothetical stuff is killing me.

Later...........

Though you're my favorite Laker "visitor", PSLakerFan, and while I agree with much of what you say here, I've yet to see a game where Kobe didn't have trouble with Paul Pierce. I imagine he'll have a breakout shooting game, there's not much anyone can do about that, but if he does, Paul will most likely mirror it on the other end.

For many reasons, some obvious, some not, the Truth always plays huge against the Lakers and gives Bryant fits. While I'll admit that in a 7-game series we're bound to have a let-down or two, (in fact, I can almost guarantee it, with how we've played so far in these playoffs), I doubt it will be enough to make much of a difference.
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Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #49 on: June 03, 2008, 05:46:21 AM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Yes, I think that you're drinking slightly too much Koolaid, but I also think that the National Media has grossly underestimated the Celtics. Anyway, this is my main reason to feel confident as a Laker fan.

Doc Rivers vs. Phil Jackson

-Greg Popovich
-Pat Riley
-Larry Brown
-Phil Jackson
-Rudy Tomjanovich
-Chuck Daly

Those 6 coaches have accounted for the last 21 NBA titles. That's a pretty amazing stat. All of them, with the probable exception of Rudy T.,  (who was still a [dang] good coach) will be or are in the Hall of Fame.

The much maligned Doc Rivers would be a peculiar addition to that list.

The Lakers gained a bit of an advantage when the Celtics clinched in 6. This gave them a couple of extra days to prepare for a specific team. If you give Phil Jackson an extended period of time to prepare a scheme, I think that will bear more fruit than giving Doc Rivers a couple of extra days to prepare. 

Immediately prior to that, however, you had K.C. Jones.  I respect K.C., but the guy wasn't exactly a coaching mastermind.  Instead, he was smart enough to get out of the way and let his players play, as Doc will be.

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Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #50 on: June 03, 2008, 10:37:39 AM »

Offline drza44

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A few thoughts...

1) With the Finals schedule, the bench becomes a bit devalued.  The Celtics may have been getting tired with their 20 games in 40 nights schedule, but the 5 days off before the series starts + the 2 - 3 days between several games lend themselves to plenty of rest.  This lets the starters play more minutes at a higher level, and neutralizes some of the Lakers' perceived bench/youth advantage.  And speaking of that...

2) The Lakers' size/style is conducive to the Celtics' bench.  Against a long frontline and tenacious perimeter defenders like the Pistons, guys like Leon Powe and Eddie House couldn't be as effective.  But the Lakers don't have a Lindsey Hunter to prevent House from bringing it up, and the Lakers don't have enough length on the bench to prevent Powe from scoring on the inside.  Thus, I expect the benches (when they play) to be closer in impact than people expect.

3) Boston's got the best, most physical defensive frontline in basketball.  This is where the refs could come into play...if the game is called like the Spurs series the Celts could dominate from the inside out.  If they call it tight and Kobe gets 16 FTs/game like he did against the Jazz it could be trouble.

4) If KG and Pierce both have it clicking on offense, the Lakers are in trouble.
When it's going well KG and Pierce have perhaps the best synergy in the league, and while Kobe is a bad man on offense the Lakers really don't want KG/Pierce putting up anywhere near 50 ppg between them.  And on that note...

5) KG and Pierce have faced a gauntlet to get here.  KG has faced an opponent that got votes for DPoY in 2 of the 3 rounds, and in the other he faced Ben Wallace and a huge Cavs frontline that just beat on him.  Pierce just got done with arguably the best defensive SF in the NBA in Tayshaun Prince on the heels of a war with LeBron.  After that gauntlet, their eyes have to be lighting up with the thought of facing Odom and Radmanovic on defense this round...

Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #51 on: June 03, 2008, 10:39:14 AM »

Offline drza44

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A counter-thought...

Kobe is the real deal, and the fact that Gasol has replaced Bynum in the starting line-up is huge for the Lakers offense.  With Bynum in there, the Lakers had a second option with limited offensive game and (more importantly) limited passing ability.  With Gasol in there next to Odom, on the other hand, the Lakers have the best passing frontline in basketball as well as one that can score in the largest variety of ways.  That is what makes them so lethal...Gasol, Odom, and Radmanovic can score from the inside, midrange, and perimeter while also passing crisply and effectively to take advantage of any mismatch.  That makes it murderous to try to double Kobe, because all of the other starters can make you pay from all over the court.  This also plays a part in why Kobe is shooting 50% from the field this postseason, because for the first time since Shaq left he is seeing some single coverages.

I think that in order for the Celts to win, their frontline has to defensively dominate the middle and prevent the Lakers' frontline from contributing up to par.  The good news is that the Celtics are maybe the one defensive frontline in basketball that have a chance to do that.  And if they do, and they can force Kobe to have to be a one-man team, they can win this series.

Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #52 on: June 03, 2008, 11:54:59 AM »

Offline cuckroller

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A counter-thought...

Kobe is the real deal, and the fact that Gasol has replaced Bynum in the starting line-up is huge for the Lakers offense.  With Bynum in there, the Lakers had a second option with limited offensive game and (more importantly) limited passing ability.  With Gasol in there next to Odom, on the other hand, the Lakers have the best passing frontline in basketball as well as one that can score in the largest variety of ways.  That is what makes them so lethal...Gasol, Odom, and Radmanovic can score from the inside, midrange, and perimeter while also passing crisply and effectively to take advantage of any mismatch.  That makes it murderous to try to double Kobe, because all of the other starters can make you pay from all over the court.  This also plays a part in why Kobe is shooting 50% from the field this postseason, because for the first time since Shaq left he is seeing some single coverages.

I think that in order for the Celts to win, their frontline has to defensively dominate the middle and prevent the Lakers' frontline from contributing up to par.  The good news is that the Celtics are maybe the one defensive frontline in basketball that have a chance to do that.  And if they do, and they can force Kobe to have to be a one-man team, they can win this series.

I am a Laker fan, and I agree with you.  This is how you beat the Lakers.  The remedy to allowing Boston to clog up the middle is if, and I say if, the Laker outside shooters can be effective enough to force the Celtics to spread out the defense.  If they can, and if the Lakers can be effective enough under the defensive backboards, and run their fast break...  Well, of course, this is the hope of the Laker fans!

Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #53 on: June 03, 2008, 12:38:34 PM »

Offline pslakerfan

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5) KG and Pierce have faced a gauntlet to get here.  KG has faced an opponent that got votes for DPoY in 2 of the 3 rounds, and in the other he faced Ben Wallace and a huge Cavs frontline that just beat on him.  Pierce just got done with arguably the best defensive SF in the NBA in Tayshaun Prince on the heels of a war with LeBron.  After that gauntlet, their eyes have to be lighting up with the thought of facing Odom and Radmanovic on defense this round...

I agree with this, but don't forget Kobe just averaged 30 ppg and 53% shooting against one of the best defenses in the Spurs and "the best" individual perimeter defender in Bruce Bowen.

Re: Am I simply drinking too much koolaid?
« Reply #54 on: June 03, 2008, 01:04:19 PM »

Offline drza44

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5) KG and Pierce have faced a gauntlet to get here.  KG has faced an opponent that got votes for DPoY in 2 of the 3 rounds, and in the other he faced Ben Wallace and a huge Cavs frontline that just beat on him.  Pierce just got done with arguably the best defensive SF in the NBA in Tayshaun Prince on the heels of a war with LeBron.  After that gauntlet, their eyes have to be lighting up with the thought of facing Odom and Radmanovic on defense this round...

I agree with this, but don't forget Kobe just averaged 30 ppg and 53% shooting against one of the best defenses in the Spurs and "the best" individual perimeter defender in Bruce Bowen.

The Spurs defense is good, and Bruce Bowen is good as well.  But this year, they just haven't compared to the Celtics. 

In the regular season the Celts were #1 in defensive efficiency, WAY ahead of the third place Spurs.  To put it in perspective, the Celtics were 3.3 efficiency points ahead of San Antonio...the 6th place Lakers were only 3.6 efficiency points ahead of the 19th place Clippers.

The same was true in PER allowed to opposing SGs, where the difference between the Celtics and Spurs was equal to the difference between the Lakers and Nuggets (82games.com).

The same defensive efficiency numbers show up in the postseason for the Celtics as well.  So, while the Spurs are a very good defensive team, the Celtics have thus far been a much better defensive team and overcoming one isn't necessarily the same thing as overcoming the other.